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hi all. "Solid RNS". Really? So SA thought " i know, we will launch and the share price will approach halving in value - that will be my plan for the board". or "i know, I'll do an RNS update and the SP will fall by nearly 20% after my announcement".
It's not a s solid RNS. its a "2022 will be good". But no substance there, hence the rapid decline. 43p..... how much lower will this go? It's been a very disappointing post-launch period. I keep thinking back to Feb/March 2021 before BRIGHT results.... i dont think people were saying we would be here.... so why should we now think "wow, that was a great RNS, 2022 sounds wonderful". Get real.
Ody, 'getting real' on AIM is something of an oxymoron - the RNS is indeed 'solid' - plenty achieved, plenty of potential. What was not 'real' was the pre-launch hype - 80p is no more 'accurate' than 40p. The truth lies somewhere in-between at present.
I think the markets have looked at SOH's playbook and thought, this is jam tomorrow again!!
SOH? as far as SBTX is concerned his playbook is all jam today (sell shares). SA can't really do much about it....
Researcher1 - Agree with most of your commentary, but the RNS is less than solid. Nothing new. Could have been worse if not for the placing.
Like I’ve mentioned; The only positive is that this now grounds expectations and rampers and we see a reduction in false prophets.
I wasn’t expecting anything different from the RNS… the product launched only a few weeks ago - and with 66% efficacy in a disorder that impacts millions with no cure and many people willing to try anything that might help. I have faith in the efficacy and in CEO Stuart as a salesman.. today is just profit taking in very ugly market conditions. Skinbio is being punished for its good performance this year if anything …
I echo the thoughts of hstcks2.
In my view the Sbtx management has done nothing wrong and many things right.
Of course it’s hugely disappointing to see the share price retrace. This is partly caused by the fact that placing a value on a company which until recently had not launched its first product is incredibly difficult and prone to volatility.
But if you believe the gut-skin axis is an emerging area of science that can lead to the development of products which have a beneficial impact on a variety of conditions then, in my view, I see no reason why we should be disappointed with the company’s actual performance or indeed the RNS today.
Next year is incredibly important. As the RNS said, the company will focus on the marketing of our first product, the development of a second for acne and of course some free money in the form of royalties from Croda/Sederma.
I’m a LTH and as always hoping for a good year in 2022.
GLA
Traintracks, just out of interest, what's the average price of your holding?
Mine's 59.75 after averaging down three times. Ie, I'm still 28% down.
I must be nuts lol.
The point is, I'll bet yours is miles lower. And if so, it's easier to swallow these kind of falls.
anon3
Yes, I completely take your point.
My average is lower than where we are now so it is easier to see the ‘long term picture’.
As I said, it’s all down to 2022 results now. In terms of long term share price performance nothing else matters.
It’s an atrocious market at the moment, which should be used to contextualise the drop. The business is great.
Where’s Elrico?
yes, agree. It's an uneasy market. Unfortunately im fully invested in my portfolio. Currently still well up as i invested the bulk (including some redundancy) during the Covid crash in 2020. But have lost recently some of those "paper" profits.
so now just adding in my monthly amount in to vale shares and growth investment trusts. i agree re: the market. I think this variant will blow over. But inflation rising, interest rate rises. i can see a correction / crash in winter 2022/2023. I was temoted to sell all and take some profits/hold cash. But I like my shares as a long term hold and they have done well. And timing the sell and then buy back is tricky....
For example, i bought barclays 0.90p... i could sell if it gets to £2.20 by next autumn.... as crash likely.... but will it go back down to 90p? Unlikely. And meanwhile earning dividends... its tricky.....
I am thinking of doing a list of shares that i would keep in event of crash (i.e. long term growth like indian stock market) and shares at first sign of crash I would sell quickly (like barclays, investec etc) and then buy back after crash....
What are other contingency plans fro crash? Be good to share wisdom
GLA.... (ps i bought skinbiotix at 15p... but even im thinking, was had sold at 75p and then buy back at 40p :( ). hindsight ! ;)
not sure about your crash theory Ody - Omicron has produced a flash crash, so now there will be further leniency from the BoE and the Fed, hence another phase of all-time highs once Omicron is squashed. Sbtx is on a different trajectory - we will need to see some psoriasis numbers for the tide to turn....
Well just added back to my original number of shares holding at this price. Personally, I believe axis sales have been less than the pre-registered interest suggested they would be (i.e. supply constrained until the New Year) as evidenced by known people on the pre-registered list being recently invited to follow-up their interest. That said, we know the product works where other treatments have failed so once word gets around from the initial intake, there will be a snowball effect as more and more enlist; so just a question of time. As mentioned in my earlier post, Croda are behind the curve with their pre-launch 20,000 litre scale-up of skinbiotix which was forecast for September, which will mean that income from that stream will be pushed back to later in 2022. What hasn't changed however, is the fact that just these two products are game-changers in their respective markets and there are others in the pipeline.
lots of folk leaving due to the wait for serious revenue - bought a second tranche at 39 - my average is now the share price! (rather a lot of shares though)
(thankfully Angle has provided a large stash of profit)
Ody, I agree with your view re the RNS. It lacks anything of substance such as forecasted revenues, cash burn or even subscriptions. It's a shame - because I like the science and O'Neill is credible.
It would be unfair to investors to forecast revenues for a product that has only launched in recent weeks, and I think you missunderstand the situation calling for forecasts from a company who is in the process of commercialising, the CEO is not known for taking big risks, he's been pretty consistent and reasoned. DYOR all!
We know from the study that a high proportion of people that completed the study and saw beneficial results have subscribed to taking the product. To this end many thousands of samples have been sent to the NPF to give to their members. Even if half that number subscribe after taking our product the launch will become a outstanding success. That’s ignoring any numbers that subscribe by taking buy one get one month free initial offer in the meantime. These are hard facts.