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Lets hope consideration on all sides are taken for these dates .
Longshorttrade, copied from my notes, with some unknowns:
Blocks 3 & 7 PSC,
South Sudan Blocks 3 & 7 production sharing agreements are due to expire by 2027:
https://www.zawya.com/en/markets/commodities/south-sudan-offers-14-oil-blocks-to-increase-output-oyrmdjdv
Block 1, 2 & 4 PSC (expiry date ?).
Block 5A PSC (expiry date ?).
Correct Komakino - If ICC award than there could be potential sanctions imposed on any buyers of Chadian crude if they continue to purchase from chad following award making it difficult to export it's crude through the port of Kribi in Cameroon I would assume that this can be done potentially making life very difficult for chad to continue to monetize it's oil once a firm arbitration decision is made
Yes, LST, both parties have now submitted their statements. The judge has given today for both parties to submit their responses and then they will make a decision. Hopefully won't take too long, but reading the Citibank document today, the Gabon court freeze on the assets is still in place. Citibank don't believe any further action is required though Savannah are saying it is because of Chad's attempts to unfreeze the Gabon court ruling. Won't be surprised to see the judge rule in favour of Citibank on this one, though there are numerous other ways Save can recoup monies if the arbitration finds in their favour, specifically through the international banking system which all monies have to go through.
Personally I have forgotten about Chad/Cameroon assets for the time being, as we know the Exxon debt facility was amended to take into account the chad nationalisation so until we get an award for progress from parties on the assets.
Focus for the company for the time being seems to be Petronas South Sudan closure and other potential acquisitions, growth in the accugas business through additional gas contracts.
So it will be upto the judge ?
What are the licence dates on the fields we are proposing to buy ?
Hopefully this bodes well for us and things move a little bit quicker towards approval. There is a clear need for more investment and there plans to takeover oil fields as soon as 2027 is a bit to ambitious without the use of foreign investment and companies
Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-11/south-sudan-walks-back-plan-to-take-over-oil-fields-by-2027?leadSource=uverify%20wall#xj4y7vzkg
South Sudan Walks Back Plan to Take Over Oil Fields by 2027
South Sudan needs more investment before it can take over oil fields from private operators and should renew contracts with the companies that expire in 2027, according to a national planning body.
State-owned Nile Petroleum Corp. “is still a small entity” and requires funding to reach the capability of companies such as China National Petroleum Corp. and Petroliam Nasional Bhd., from which it had planned to take over licenses as it expands operations, South Sudan’s National Economic Conference said in a summary of recommendations. Officials met for six days through Sept. 9 in the capital city of Juba.
The NEC also listed the renegotiation of exploration and production sharing agreements in 2027, as well as recommending the construction of an alternative pipeline. South Sudan has held talks with Kenya and Ethiopia to truck oil to the coast for export, which would mitigate its dependence on pipelines that run through war-plagued Sudan.
Good qusstion, Sailplane. Maybe the ONGC Videsh glossy may hold some insight. More likely than Malaysian or Chinese disclosure, I imagine. Just a hunch.
Anyone come across what the SS expenditures are for the likes of – royalties, tax & pipeline fees?
Longshorttrade - To be fair the initial timeframe was 30th June 2023, so in theory if they release it end of September they would have had a full additional 3 months extension. One would hope that 3 months is a significant amount of time to close out any other workstreams which they couldn't during the initial timeline of 30th June 2023. I am personally taming my expectations for a couple of additional months of extensions but If it comes sooner than it's a bonus for all.
As the last update for an extension was nearly 7 weeks ago following a previous extension of 4 weeks it is very possible that an admission doc could land any day now as they have had nearly 11 weeks since the initial extension, if it is positive lets hope it lands as i like many others have alot of cash tied up here and i like it to be fluid ☺
A great example of risk mitigation is we know the clauses on the Exxon debt facility was amended post chad nationalization something that wasn't explicitly stated but was part of the annual report. So we know Savannah are pretty good at taking measures to protect inherent risks.
Hence I think many who have spoke to IR and Nominated advisor have mention that AK is looking to come to market only when there is some assurity so if the company does release the admission document and re-admits without formal approval i would be certain that background assurances would be granted which we may not be privy to until formal approval news lands
So I am confident that when Save do release the admission document even if it doesn't have all formals approvals in place there would be measures taken in the background which we may not be immediately privy to especially after lessons learnt from Chad deal to ensure that the risk is minimal as possible post release of admission document and re-listing. ...
NicetoMichu - I believe everyone on here would prefer to be suspended and wouldn't mind a few additional months suspension if that were the case. We have waited this long what's a few additional months. Everyone is assuming that this deal is solely dependent on South Sudan Goverment approval but the list of approvals is far greater for this deal and Savannah has not explicitly stated the wait is because of the government approval it is something that investors are inherently jumping too..... they have always referred to workstreams which is a lot more broader.
UK Approvals
1) UK Government
2) UK Listing Authority
3) FCA
4) Competition and Markets Authority
5) Savannah Shareholders
South Sudan Approval
1) South Sudan government approval
2) South Sudanese National Petroleum Commission
3) Nilepet approval
4) Minister of petroleum approval
5) Minister of finance approval
Potential US government approval ?
1) We may need US government approval as South Sudan my be subject to international sanctions
Approvals from other partners like CNPC and ONGC the PSC
The list could be exhaustive and who knows whether we need all of the above or some and some may come together.
So you can imagine with so many approvals and stakeholders to please timelines can always and likely shift.
Of course Savannah Energy may need all of the approvals to feel comfortable to come to market but I would imagine they would have got legal advice on what is utmost importance which will make the deal as watertight as possible and one which can not be back tracked on once we commence trading.
Regarding SP, the chairman's decision to subscribe at the suspended price of 26.25p is a compelling endorsement of the company's current valuation. This not only solidifies the market's optimism about our future plans but also lends extra credibility, especially considering the chairman's unique insight into the company's prospective growth.
Our strategy of increasing cash reserves and lowering net debt puts us in a robust financial position as we work towards finalizing another acquisition. Even if additional deals don't materialize, our focus will remain on strengthening our financials by continuing to reduce net debt and accumulate cash.
Regarding SP, the chairman's decision to subscribe at the suspended price of 26.25p is a compelling endorsement of the company's current valuation. This not only solidifies the market's optimism about our future plans but also lends extra credibility, especially considering the chairman's unique insight into the company's prospective growth.
Accugas increasing cash reserves and lowering net debt puts us in a robust financial position as we work towards finalizing another acquisition. Even if additional deals don't materialize, our focus will remain on strengthening accugas asset through additional gas contracts which in turn will strengthen financials by continuing to reduce net debt and accumulate cash that alone will provide upside headway to the company
Whatever happens with deals, we have plenty to go fro in terms of accugas growth new contracts and higher volumes. always have said we if we can be strong and aggressive in executing on the accugas front than that alone could take us to being a £1bn market cap company in it's own right....................
Half year report to come end of September will be very interesting in my opinion and will provided further outlook as well
Whatever happens , happens so to speak NiceTMU when we eventually come out of suspension.
I'm just saying i don't want to get my hopes up on high expectation that we will see govt approval alongside the adm doc and take that as a negative if it doesn't arrive or if both are delayed come the end of the month for that matter. Great if it happens but i just think it might be a case of the cart before the horse just now - but who knows but it doesn't and won't change my perspective and I think TIL has hit the nail on the head with the 'Deals' post. I'm focussing on the longer term especially with other deals in the pipeline and Accugas continuing to evolve and the compression project to complete and the impact of more deals.
We've had a considerable number of new gas contracts (5) where we haven't seen the impact on a full year basis yet.
First gas sales to - TransAfam only started 28th June 2022. To Central Horizon only started 27th June 2022. To FIPL TransAmadi 22/6/22.
Likewise Notore Chemicals was only signed 16th August 2022 and connected so i assume may have started supply then.
That's 4 contracts that barely accounted for 6 months in the latest full year accounts to end 2022 released on 8th June this year.
In addition the Amocon contract didn't start until end of May this year.
There could be a significant amount of revenue playing catch-up to come through on a full year basis regardless of any new contracts in the pipeline and next years completion of the compression facility. All of this i would hope to have a material impact on reducing the net debt forecasts that much faster than anaylsts previously guided on prior to these additional contracts.
Zengas, some might - rightly or wrongly - perceive that post as subtly trying to minimize s/p damage in a scenario where Save comes out of suspension with South Sudan deal still absolutely wanting completing by AK but with government approval still pending on it
(and I'd be one of those some :-)... but see merit in the post still too.. for a variety of reasons)
PS: I'm absolutely for this staying suspended for longer again if South Sudan deal has not received government approval by the end of this month.. that is if there isn't another significant deal fully signed sealed and delivered instead /as well by the end of this month.. and my guess is there won't be another significant deal FULLY completed by the end of this month.
Agree, I believe that AK has previously warned us of bumps in the road.
Although operating in Africa, he was presumably referring to the state of UK roads as a benchmark.
So with every deal that Savannah does in the future it will also be about testing the investors patience.....................If you play the long game than I truly believe everything will be fine.................................
It's all about looking with a longer lens accugas asset has proven that, there was so much issues from the point we struck the deal to getting the asset to where it is today at one point there was even worries of being paid on time................ a few years on and the asset is effectively placed us in our current position where we are able to access financing to go for other inorganic deals and potentially transforming the company into the next level.................... Nothing is easy but the persistence and determination showed by AK in getting the accugas asset to where it currently is nothing short of commendable and one thing the accugas asset has shown is AK drive to make a deal a success regardless of the timelines.
Every upstream deal in africa has it's own sets of challenges, and there aren't any easy deals, it's about being persistent, patient and playing the long game......... The challenges can come in a number of forms, employee unrest, political unrest, environmental concerns, approvals inertia............................... etc......................................
ENI / OANDO deal worker protests
https://www.majorwavesenergyreport.com/pengassan-pickets-agip/