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It looks as though we will not be undertaking the £7m 'share swap' with Rathlin, it's a shame, 40% is massive but 50% would have been outstanding.
Would it have to be followed up with an announcement if it doesn't go ahead or will it just disappear due to already mentioned as not definite in the last update.
Judging by all the other things that seem to be passing by unannounced I wouldn't expect any confirmation that the share swap ship has sailed. I'm assuming it's dead in the water.
miker444, ref: Raithlin share swap, "will it just disappear due to already mentioned as not definite in the last update."
You raise an interesting point!! It would have been tremendous had that gone through! But if it doesn't proceed I doubt there will be any further formal confirmation to that effect.
Perhaps at some time in the future we might hear in answer to a question at a presentation or the like.
Novykluk,
"It would have been tremendous had that gone through! But if it doesn't proceed I doubt there will be any further formal confirmation to that effect."
If the share swap craters, there had better well be a 'formal announcement', because if not, S&S are likely to feel the FCA feeling their collar in fairly short order. The 24 million placing last month was for (a) 16 million in further equity in Rathlin, the cash for which to be used to finance further West Newton operations, (b) 'up to' 7 million in share-swap (c) 1 million not mentioned, but no doubt administrative costs (lawyers' fees etc) for the placing to actually happen, which is no sweat.
If the share-swap doesn't occur, where does the 7 million of the placing earmarked for it go to? I think it's incumbant on the company to publicly give information about this, even if PI participation in the placing was minimal. Because PI's are affected, by the 'dilution' effect that the placing inevitably had.
I don't want to appear 'deramping', I'm not a 'trader', so deramping a share I hold would be like shooting myself in the foot. But although I don't see any writing on the wall, there definitely seem to me to be some cracks appearing in the plaster, and I'm worried. I hope the cracks aren't being caused by a rat away.
On the back of the 'meeting notes' kindly posted by PDSMPiper, there appear to be some technical questions about W.Newton which I personally don't feel have been answered, nor properly addressed. For instance, I looked at that 'Drill or Drop' article about the holdups on the preparations for the WNB site. OK, 'Drill or Drop' is an anti-oilbusiness 'protest' site, which does all it can to promote its own weird agenda. However, that article appears factual. Can anyone in the area actually go check to see if the work on WNB has progressed, and lay our minds to rest on this one, please?
And why is the emphasis being placed on further drilling at WNB, before the 'modified' EWT on WNA has not even started? It sounds a bit like putting the cart before the horse, and drilling wells is all fine and dandy sexy stuff, but eats up (or spreads around) cash very quickly.
And now UJO is proposing a placing, part of which to be used to finance further seismic on WN. What? Shooting more seismic before the EWT has been done? Mad, or what? Seismic's all very well, but it doesn't get oil out of the ground and sold to the market.
The brrmedia 'interviews' weren't interviews. They were just S&S speaking to camera. I could do the same thing at home and put it on youtube, explaining why I think the Earth is flat.
I'm not interested in RBD 'improving the value of the assets'. I'm interested in the 'asset' I've invested in (ie RBD) improving in value, evidenced by Mcap and a good SP. Instead, it seems to be doing the opposite.
I'll be watching this very closely now, and hoping for some 'formal' news reassuring me that there's not a rat behind the plasterwork.
ADUK,
As far as I understood the £24m was £16m for Rathlin and £1.95m for Danube. The 2.6bn placing shares generated this money.
The £7m equity swap would have involved the issuing of a further 780m shares. Those are not yet in existence. One worrying aspect was that those share holders had verbally agreed to the swap, so I'm not sure what changed.
That does mean there is £6m or so available to RBD.
I don't think you're deramping, those are sensible thoughts and I appreciate them. I have the same feeling about the WN situation, lots of confusion it suggests they don't really know what they're doing. I can't understand what has happened to the EWT which should really be getting ready to start soon and is probably the best next step to be taken.
Yes that is correct.
You need to look at the funding table in the RNS of 07th Oct to see the likely distribution of the £24M
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/RBD/statement-re-proposed-placing-and-investments-dhefcret2u5v95f.html
You don’t need cash to swap paper and IANAA is correct. The “Swap shares” would mean the creation of up to £7M / .009 new RBD shares on top of the 2.6Bn “Placing Shares”
S&S need to be called to Account on why they thought this deal was good, the news void on operational progress and whether the share swap is still on.
Jack
Thanks JD for digging out the table.
What I find even more interesting is that the costs don't seem to cover the EWT of the drilled well. So surely the question to S&S should be - why not complete the EWT and increase value (so) further prior to the raise. What was the advantage of doing the raise before? I can only see that it diluted the incumbent shareholders, who already believed in the assets' value, more than was necessary. Unless they were worried that the first EWT would turn out to seem like bad news and they have confidence the new wells will make the asset look more valuable (and without the raise they'd never have been drilled).
One of the problems here is that nothing seems to be progressing. Most people are unsure about what is going on,including me, its not good enough. Why does the company not keep its shareholders informed, i like Aduk i am starting to smell a rat, also,i want to know what happened to the EWT . One thing shareholders hate is lack of information ,and left wondering about the reasons why. Would be nice to know if any thing is happening on site.----Time S&S gave us some information.
Can't belive with so much going on.. The sp is in decline. Another shambolic management.. With the resources available to them.. The sp should be at least double.. But something / someone is holding this sp back. Too many leaks... Needs to be reported....
Jack, imv s and s are not interested in value, their priority is growing a company at our expense . They will raise again if/when this comes good so that they can eventually head up a massive company with massive numvbers of shares , each worth less than today's. I hope i am worng as i want out at breakeven.
When we find out who actually bought into the raise we might be able to speculate a bit more about future raises. It's interesting to think, considering volume and sentiment since, who would have wanted such a large chunk of shares. Was it IIs who already held or was it new interest? I wonder if/when we'll find out...shouldn't really be private information as it was a deal with the company, not a trade between shareholders really.
adoubleuk
I did not think your post was de-ramping at all! You raise concerns many genuine holders will have, particularly in respect of this current news vacuum! You have previously posted some very helpful stuff. So I understand you are a serious holder.
But to answer two of your points;
* It was my non expert opinion that if the Raithlin share swap did not proceed, then those additional shares would just not be issued. I believe that's been quite professionally reported earlier this evening by JackDiamonds.
* Now why didn't S & S wait for the EWT results, and the possibility our share price would have been higher, before going for a Placing? It seems to me the answer is one of straight forward economics.
Logically if the results of a favourable EWT were issued, our price would be higher and we would be diluted less. Agreed! But I believe that S & S judged that when those numbers were confirmed absolutely, the cost of acquiring our additional holding in Raithlin, would have far exceeded the cost of the additional dilution.
I think my view here is kind of supported by the fact that the Raithlin shareholders (who must have been in dialogue with RBD before the Placing announcement) then decided what ever price was being proposed for their equity, wasn't enough. That in my view was likely when the WN numbers were emerging (from progressive analysis) and they realised just how big WN is.
So to my simple mind, the choice was wait for the EWT results and have a higher share price, but pay even more for the Rathlin shares.
Like you and most other LTH's though, I am very disappointed by the total lack of information now. Unlike you though (fortunately for me), I'm not yet feeling "there's a rat"!! I hope we get a news update soon though, before I start getting nervous! At this point in time I still fully trust S & S! But hope I'm not being naive!!
GLTALTH's
NK
One would logically have thought that upon release of the EWT results the share price would increase. pr
I agree with your post, novykluk.
I wonder if we might be hearing soon of an addition to the management.
S and S pride themselves of the leanness of their team, but due to their massive successes, the consequential workload that success brings has increased considerably.
Projects seem to be progressing very linearly, with a fair bit of ‘manyana’ thrown in on the news offered.
Lack of ‘ up front’ information is causing concerns with pi’s. More precise details on the current operational positions of all the projects and the reasons for ever slipping deadlines, rather than vague PR interviews and announcements would help to ease concerns.
This is not a de ramp. I have great faith in this Company and am in BD, financially.
Correction. Linearly is the wrong word . I feel progress in projects seem to be drop by the wayside, whilst concentrating on the current , flavour of the month.
Some good conversation here, unlike others I have been concerned about the BOD here for a while, style over substance. I decided to sell after the volumetric RNS as I don't personally think this deal has been good for shareholders, the SP would have been over 2P now on current news and original shares in issue. I will buy back in for the EWT but I don't see it happening this year, and there is a niggle that it might not happen at all, does it really take this long ?
Sankeys, someone had to put the money up for WN to progress. If not us then we would have been diluted, without the control we now have.
RBD could have funded their % share of Rathin, keeping the % with far less dilution that will effect the SP for the next 6 months. Also is it wise to take on a larger share without the EWT, we've seen over at ECO that initial OIP numbers are meaningless without proper testing. I really like the WN asset but I do have concerns that RBD are ramping the best case scenario and have no plan b if it isn't. I'll be happier when they actually give timelines for the next 6 months and confirm the EWT.
Can’t help but look at RBD, now ,and think Really Balls Deep. But I am that too:) .
Artyth. You mention massive successes , sorry, but i cannot see any.----All i see at the moment is lack of information from management, and lack of shareholder value and lack of progress.----I am a shareholder here,and have been for some time,and as you can probably tell i expected better from S@S.---Lets have some information.
Regarding delays. If they need a big rig to carry out testing, the one UKOG are using will be available in about a week, so perhaps they are waiting for it's availability.
Then the botched sale. Imo, Rathlin realised how good the well is and cancelled this part of the deal as they get their £16m for the drill anyway.
glalth
bladehater,
A 'big rig' won't be required for WN. Just a 500 hp (or even smaller) 'workover' rig to pull the existing tubing string and re-run with an ESP completion. But I haven't any knowledge about rig availability in the UK. And yet again, no mention has been made about waiting for a rig being a delay cause.
" Imo, Rathlin realised how good the well is and cancelled this part of the deal as they get their £16m for the drill anyway."
For lack of evidence, that's as good a speculation as any other. Of course, it highlights another little niggling detail about the whole setup. Rathlin being a private company, and thus not subject to stockmarket regulations such as reporting via RNS and so on, we don't know much about their decision-making, nor details or their shareholder base. I can't help wondering if the share-swap might not have been rather a case of wishful thinking on S & S's part, with them being over-optimistic as to the outcome. Without news as to how (or if) negotiations are progressing, I suppose we can only make uninformed guesses about the issue for now.
Adoubleuk,
Thanks for reply
Are the fund managers of the city pension funds who put £24,000,000 in here at 0.9 wracked with worry that they will imminently lose their capital? Yes or no. Your choice. Don’t like it? Worried? Off ya pop.
PDMS, we know we can sell!
We're just saying the perceived risk has increased, based on management performance and poor communication.
S&S have done really well at getting hold of some assets and increasing their potential. However, thus far they are yet to implement part 2 of their plan and it's not yet clear when and how we'll get there with WN and what it'll look like in the end game. That's the asset that's most advanced and successful and valuable in the portfolio, at least according to S&S. Although, that's the one we've increased our proportion of yet the sp has dropped 1/3...so there is clear evidence that shareholders are worried and quite a few points as to why that might be the case.
Now where we might have stayed longer in this share we might reduce our holdings sooner (maybe after the next WN good news, who knows).