Helpful you are correct in that an awful lot of problems were encountered with the work over wells, be it scale, gas pressure, water ingress etc, however all were overcome irrespective and so for me It would appear that the best asset for ADL at the moment is Greg Mawhinney, no matter what was thrown at him he has resolved it. He may be a belt and braces type of man but it may well be down to him that we get further involvement with CAV and other wells.
Important to not that this is not a CPR but an internal assessment from the operator or words to that effect. The volumetric range is huge almost double from Base Case 146m barrels to Upside Case of 283m barrels.
Cadeby Reef should add an extra minimum of 80m barrels taking the base case to 230m barrels an the Upside Case to 350m barrels.
For me we still need to wait for EWT and CPR Q1 2020 and it looks as though the operators hands have been forced somewhat by the BMD leaks. RBD all about monetisation and that will be summer of next year (ish) to see the sp reflect its true worth from WN.
All good for those that can wait a few more months.
To abandon the well they saw enough to know that these weren't just 'oil shows' but more than likely they hit a reservoir, literally, a lake of oil that is conventionally able to flow or be pumped to the surface.
It's looking good for 80m ish barrels also from the Cadeby Reef Formation. But one question remains for and that is the gas. The whole initial drill was to confirm 189 bcf, a large gas deposit, albeit made to look insignificant now due to the discovery of oil. I alo know oil is easier to recover and more profitable 'pound for pound' but my question is this if the 25m column of gas also comes in far higher, say 300 bcf, will this still be ignored?
When you look at the depths (no pun intended) that some companies go to on the promise of just 20 - 30 bcf will the sheer volume of WN Gas just be left alone? It will have a retail value of $1 - $2bn in its own right.
The RNS convinces me we will have to wait for EWT before CPR so these buys may well just be the realisation the window of opportunity to be able to still buy in at under 1p (with the mother of all volumetrics for onshore due to land) will soon be gone.
The last comment of my post was a bit tongue in cheek and an end response in answering another post but surely your post is agreeing with just that. i.e it obviously wasn't already on the radar as no major has come in for a stake. Therefore it could be now or in the future.
My point is it will be a lot more than $5 and actually considering it is onshore with all the infrastructure, terminals, pipelines and refineries within spitting difference then we are in a strong negotiating position, especially if a speculated 2 majors are already in talks.
Really don't want a bidding war now do we :¬
One is assuming that's just for the 45m column and not including the Deeper Cadeby Formation which early doors was expected to contain 79m barrels in its own right, now possibly a low estimate. That would give minimum 220m to maximum 300m barrels combined.
Being greedy but it would have been nice to have the extra 10% interest in WN via the 7m share swap with Rathlin which appears to have gone south, we would hold 50% of everything that comes out of WN instead of 40% and deision controlling . I did say I was being greedy :¬)
Good posts Helpful, imo as good as the market will receive exceeding the 150 bopd target it will be the RNS news of a deal with CAV which will have the most significant impact on the sp, that should not be too long after the 4 work overs are at stable production, hopefully.
Yes Selo is non producing so it will be exploration drills requiring decent investment, we would need to either raise ( could be the reason behind AGM resolutions for placings ) or do a deal with CAV who are the largest independent Fund Managers in Indonesia, it won't be cheap but CAV did state they look forward to working with ADL on future projects in addition to the current workovers and sounded quite bullish at this prospect ( from memory).
Helpful I have had a gut feeling that talks have been underway for a little while and this is down to the fact that on more than one occasion, albeit on their own website, they state:
" The Selo Field offers substantial upside with a number of highly productive formations that can be accessible by one well".
My point is this the Selo Field and not Betun where the current 4 workovers are sited. So why state that if you do not expect to be working not only on other wells within Betun but a different area altogether.
It has to be Greg Mawhinney who is running the show on the ground and he will be dictating to Simon of any potentials if they exist to approach CAV imo.
But Selo does sound good if there are a number of highly productive formations which can be got at from just one well. Money will need to be raised but this would have to be offset with the risk / reward returns and perhaps that's where the deal with CAV can come in to its own (participating interest) now we have proven the concept.
All my own mumblings I know but Simon has mentioned on more than one occasion other wells and accompanied them with maps, talks are and have been underway with CAV imo on where we go from here.
We fluctuated between 90 bopd and 120 bopd without BTN - 03. It actually states that they are waiting for stabilised figures from all of the wells not just 03 well so it's my guess they are still increasing the bofpd and until that is at full ramp, whatever that rate is, it may fall short of 6,500 bofpd, but once they are happy they have maximum production rate to the cut of water / oil % then we will see a final stabilised production across all 4 wells.
The mm's are only interested in that final figure and sp will remain depressed.
The next month of improving uptime and maintenance of equipment suggests that is referring to maximising the bofpd and so another month or so to fine tune the work overs before final figures (stabilised) are released. All necessary but the 'proof of concept' appears to be successful.
doubleup you may be right mate, nothing is certain in this sector and our past history is ****e, that's a fact and I am fully aware. But on this project alone for once we look as though we will not only achieve what we set out to do but exceed it.
I truly see this project as hopefully and purely to allow us to get in further with CAV and turn the corner away from the constant failings of our past.
atb mate and respect.
I'm not wrong, the increased figures on their website are the very latest current ones which have not been flowing long enough to give a months average. The figures in the RNS are past completed month figures.
We will have to agree to disagree mate, no malice but I am happy that they are achieving what they set out to do, for once, and yes it's been a long time coming.
doubleup you know full well those are the figures for the whole average of October, the month that has gone, the update of the increase to 44 and 30.1 are the very latest current figures which have not got a months data to put the new average on.
They have and are increasing.
Once stabilised the last line states:
"will exceed their target of 150 bopd".
Well done, could have been a failure but they will achieve what they set out to do and better it. Now lets have some dealings / investment with CAV.
The actual increase from 04 & 14 is 20% from their update figures of a week ago ( 61 bopd to 74 bopd combined). Would be nice to know what the bofpd volume currently is., we were approx. 2000 bofpd and all going well can get near to 6,500, that's some increase.