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Cheers BB, I wondered if that might be the reason but hadn't checked.
Google suggests that, in China, a low dose aspirin is quite often 100mg rather than 75mg, which presumably explains the difference
Yes, encouraging.
Interesting that in the study that Provexis did FF was checked against 75mg of aspirin but the By-Health study was 100mg.
The By-Health study had one hundred ninety elderly subjects but the original study registration was for 400
http://www.chictr.org.cn/showprojen.aspx?proj=56370
I wonder if they cut it short due to Covid or had enough data to finish the study early?
I am not very good at reading results.... Are they encouraging for FF??
This popped up, late to the party
.......
https://res.mdpi.com/d_attachment/foods/foods-09-01564/article_deploy/foods-09-01564.pdf
W$
It'd be a big shock to see any trials on the Chinese giving massively different results to the previous European trials, but it's still good to see it in black and white.
Inhibitory effect of Fruitflow on platelet function: a randomized placebo-controlled trial in elderly subjects
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-95541/v1
Ah, oh well, there goes my dream :(
You'll be too late, I'll already own them and have sacked their entire design and product planning staff. :-)
Fair point.
First thing I'm going to do is buy Alfa Romeo and charge Alf extra for his next motor !
What do you mean BB?
This time next month we will be Billionaires
:-)
Gixer
Oh, absolutely, and that'll likely have been happening over the last few years and contributing to some of the growth we've seen from the AA.
Sadly, that's pretty slow progress, and until our income and therefore our profit ( or at least sensible forecasts underpinned by info from Ford ) justifies a market cap of 10 million plus, then the sp relies on peoples thoughts on the financial potential* or otherwise of Fruitflow
BB
*obviously there are plenty of people who are content with just saying "this'll be huge" without any idea of what huge is and how, long term , that'll be reflected in the market cap, because large parts of AIM is for dreamers, and for feeding off dreamers views.
Looks like some Diabetes products as alluded to in latest report are in the pipeline http://www.by-health.com/en/Blood
"would give us more cash from existing customers as part of the profit share"
Or DSM could pass on some of the cost reduction to entice "prospective customers" in turn increasing sales.
:-)
Gixer
Yea, that's a good point, so would give us more cash from existing customers as part of the profit share.
I also noticed in the last accounts that it appeared ( so not 100% definite ) that the cost of goods for FF+ had come down giving us a higher gross margin. That might be down to DSM continually working on production costs and passing savings on, but it might just have been down to us putting a bigger order in and consequently getting a better price, don't really know.
Time will tell on the difference that ByHealth actually getting going will make to our cashflow. It'll certainly be good, the debate really is how good ? You're also right when you say ByHealth might be a catalyst for other countries / companies sitting up and taking notice, but that'll likely take some time, so is very much more jam tomorrow.
If, some time next year ( or even this year, but that seems unlikely ), we get an RNS saying ByHealth has got regulatory approval for Fruitflow , and firm orders have been placed, then it'll be interesting to see if any financial guidance on it's effect to PXS is given at the same time.
For example, a statement of "... and we expect this to mean the company will be profitable this FY " , or H2 at least, " or "... and we expect this to mean the company will be profitable in FY 2022/23" would be helpful. Will we get such a statement ? Well, if only to control speculation, both overly negative and overly positive, we should do, but I wouldn't be surprised to see something unsuitably vague !
BB
I am sure you are correct BB and BH will be looking at a discount for larger volume. I would also assume that cost of production for the raw material (fruitflow) would come down due to larger volume of product manufactured. This could also give a higher profit margin to dsm from smaller customers.
Relatively slowly isn't small Alf.
As for DSM making a contribution to launch costs, we don't know how common, and to what extent they've been doing that. All we know is what they did for us.
For smaller companies, it's likely they'll help out, but, as larger companies come on board, I think that will likely change and they'll mainly, be not totally, be after a good discount on the ingredient price commensurate with the large volumes they're ordering and they'll be less interested in short term ( effective ) discounts.
The info we've been fed in the RNS's which talk about By-Health certainly support that. "That" being they'll want it cheaper than others are paying. DSM's job is to use economies of scale or other methods to make the price attractive to By-Health while still making a decent margin. Again, recent RNS's suggest we're confident they can do that, but not to the point where they can maintain present margins, which is fair enough, it's what you'd expect as you deal with bigger companies, and to be fair to Ford, that info is there in black and white for any shareholders to read.
BB
Bern, obviously we are all guessing, but your view that By Health will start off small doesn't seem accurate to me. Their MO is to go big on product launches, they have the infrastructure to promote nationally, and I'd fully expect that level of market penetration when they do decide to press the start button.
As for when the revenue would be reflected back to Provexis, that may well depend on how much of a contribution DSM are expected to make to launch costs. The big step is to see the launch take place, surely the rest of the story is then all upside. IMHO
"Surely DSM will purchase PXS"
That would, I think, depend on 2 things.
1. They want to buy PXS (more likely just the FF IP)
2. They offer the right price to shareholders
Success in China could be the key to other larger companies coming on board.
If China deals materialises:And it's big;Surely DSM will purchase PXS :The only decision I need to make is whether the deal or the cash call comes first! Would take a punt @0.50
CB
On timescale, as Sphinx says, ByHealth will have to buy Fruitflow from DSM, so, and there's a bit of guesswork here, it should be recognised in our accounts within a few months. How they roll out any new products, and the price they pay for FF is probably more important than the timing.
I guess you have to work out what potential significant multiples by volume and multiple by value might mean in terms of cash received by Provexis ? The wording suggests that, not unreasonably, that the volumes of Fruitflow that ByHealth intend to buy mean they'll be getting it cheaper than most, if not all, of DSM's customers.
So, if for example, "Potential sales volumes remain at a significant multiple of existing Fruitflow sales." meant sales volumes were 5 or 6 times existing volumes, then maybe "potentially at a multiple of Fruitflow's existing annual sales." means the value of those sales is 2 or 3 times existing sales ?
I think those are reasonable assumptions, though others will likely disagree and put forward a coherent argument for a higher cash value of sales than 2 or 3 times. Anyway, if you assume our share of the profit remains constant, then, once By-Health are fully up and running, we could well be looking at receiving 3 or 4 times ( what we currently get, plus the extra generated from By-Health sales ) what we currently do via the AA. So that might be 700 to 930k , which, assuming our costs are fixed, would give us a profit of something in the order of 400 to 600k.
Would we get that level of cash immediately ? Probably not, I'd guess By-Health would start relatively slowly, but I'd be surprised if the initial 12 month uplift to our share of the AA wasn't well in six figures and, assuming retail sales went well, would rise pretty quickly to the 700 to 930k which is my guess.
Another way of looking at the numbers is to make a stab at retail sales and work backwards. If By-Health fairly quickly get to retail sales value of 50 to 100 million pounds then cost of goods might be about a third of that, so 16 to 33 million ? Maybe half of that cost of goods is the cost of Fruitflow, so that's 8 to 16 million to DSM. Guessing an operating margin of 20% on FF for DSM would give a profit to share of 1.6 to 3.2 million ? What's our % share ? No-one knows, but if it's 50%, then that'd be 800 to 1600k to us, which is in the same sort of ballbark to the figure I'm guessing at from the info Ford's put in the Annual Report.
All of that could, of course, be complete and utter testicles, and it wouldn't be the first time I've typed *******s about PXS
BB
I’m not sure but I would think BH will have to purchase ff from DSM before a production run can begin . So before the products go on sale DSM will have the money , when they decide to pay pxs is anyone’s guess. Imo
Any idea on the timescales between the availability of a large scale Chinese product and the PXS bottom line?
I agree, if the Chinese venture is successful it will probably be "transformational" but plenty of time to monitor the SP as it is on record that a bit of fundraising will be needed first.
Have you got Gixer on filter. Have a look at all the snippets on bi-health fruitflow. Once they get blue cap this will be massiveeeeeeeeeee