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I will add my opinion to the massive response to today's AGM.
I note that all resolutions were passed overwhelmingly with a huge vote of confidence in Ian Ford as CEO. I also note that a maximum of £690k can be raised in the next 15 months. I also note the very positive response of the market in that several hundreds of pounds worth of shares have been traded in four deals.
I wish all holders all the very best as we approach the next few years.
This year's AGM was a pure formality, even the most business illiterate can recognise the unusual circumstances this year.
The work of the company goes unnoticed for the most part, but it doesn't just happen. Associations that go back many years have resulted in collaborations that bode well for the future. The very first " many multiples" mass product launch in the vast China market looks to not too far away according to the By Health comments. This, only in my own personal view, should make the revenue flow an attractive proposition for an acquirer. This year hasn't been one for such face to face discussions, and the development hasn't reached the right stage. Yet.
Have you got Gixer on filter. Have a look at all the snippets on bi-health fruitflow. Once they get blue cap this will be massiveeeeeeeeeee
Any idea on the timescales between the availability of a large scale Chinese product and the PXS bottom line?
I agree, if the Chinese venture is successful it will probably be "transformational" but plenty of time to monitor the SP as it is on record that a bit of fundraising will be needed first.
I’m not sure but I would think BH will have to purchase ff from DSM before a production run can begin . So before the products go on sale DSM will have the money , when they decide to pay pxs is anyone’s guess. Imo
CB
On timescale, as Sphinx says, ByHealth will have to buy Fruitflow from DSM, so, and there's a bit of guesswork here, it should be recognised in our accounts within a few months. How they roll out any new products, and the price they pay for FF is probably more important than the timing.
I guess you have to work out what potential significant multiples by volume and multiple by value might mean in terms of cash received by Provexis ? The wording suggests that, not unreasonably, that the volumes of Fruitflow that ByHealth intend to buy mean they'll be getting it cheaper than most, if not all, of DSM's customers.
So, if for example, "Potential sales volumes remain at a significant multiple of existing Fruitflow sales." meant sales volumes were 5 or 6 times existing volumes, then maybe "potentially at a multiple of Fruitflow's existing annual sales." means the value of those sales is 2 or 3 times existing sales ?
I think those are reasonable assumptions, though others will likely disagree and put forward a coherent argument for a higher cash value of sales than 2 or 3 times. Anyway, if you assume our share of the profit remains constant, then, once By-Health are fully up and running, we could well be looking at receiving 3 or 4 times ( what we currently get, plus the extra generated from By-Health sales ) what we currently do via the AA. So that might be 700 to 930k , which, assuming our costs are fixed, would give us a profit of something in the order of 400 to 600k.
Would we get that level of cash immediately ? Probably not, I'd guess By-Health would start relatively slowly, but I'd be surprised if the initial 12 month uplift to our share of the AA wasn't well in six figures and, assuming retail sales went well, would rise pretty quickly to the 700 to 930k which is my guess.
Another way of looking at the numbers is to make a stab at retail sales and work backwards. If By-Health fairly quickly get to retail sales value of 50 to 100 million pounds then cost of goods might be about a third of that, so 16 to 33 million ? Maybe half of that cost of goods is the cost of Fruitflow, so that's 8 to 16 million to DSM. Guessing an operating margin of 20% on FF for DSM would give a profit to share of 1.6 to 3.2 million ? What's our % share ? No-one knows, but if it's 50%, then that'd be 800 to 1600k to us, which is in the same sort of ballbark to the figure I'm guessing at from the info Ford's put in the Annual Report.
All of that could, of course, be complete and utter testicles, and it wouldn't be the first time I've typed *******s about PXS
BB
If China deals materialises:And it's big;Surely DSM will purchase PXS :The only decision I need to make is whether the deal or the cash call comes first! Would take a punt @0.50
"Surely DSM will purchase PXS"
That would, I think, depend on 2 things.
1. They want to buy PXS (more likely just the FF IP)
2. They offer the right price to shareholders
Success in China could be the key to other larger companies coming on board.