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@Somekindofnut "but IMO growth companies shouldn't be buying back shares. Growth companies should be prioritizing cash"......... So... I suppose you're 200% against dividend since that's worse when it comes to limiting take over threats and access to raise capital at reasonable prices?
But I guess we also disagree on the premise: IMO #PTAL isn't a growth company. Its a high growth, cash flow positive and profitable company with 0 debt. Not a company trying to scale up with money from banks and investors.
Also, some PSU may hold more than 1 share. "each PSU will entitle the holder to acquire, for nil cost, between zero and two common shares. The "nil cost" is of course a mistake (should be e.g. last 10 days SP minus 10%, vesting in 3 years; that's good governance; nil cost is IMO not). The "between zero and two" common shares really doesn't help for clarity.
I know investor warrants are gone and I also know they missed the opportunity to buy them with cash before we got the last 60 million+ investor warrants released. The dilution from PSUs might be balanced by share buybacks, but... they're certainly not really buying back shares, but just controlling/mitigating dilution.
@LSE202020: Denmark.
I checked back - outstanding PSUs are 2% of shares.
All warrants were exercised in 2023. Gone. Obviously they were issued in response to field closure during covid, but no more warrants now. I'm looking at page 27:
https://petrotalcorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Q4-Reporting-Package.pdf
So I agree buy backs won't move the share price, but IMO growth companies shouldn't be buying back shares. Growth companies should be prioritizing cash. So paying employees in shares is a good thing if they are instead pumping that cash into growing the business.
I'm sure I'm not only one here who's received bonus shares and cheap shares (Sharesave) from a UK company. It's a benefit for employees (tax break because government thinks it's good idea) and encourages loyalty (you lose out if you don't stay 3 years). Peru will be different, but Petrotal's PSU scheme much more linked to key shareholders interests I think - share price, production growth, safety. I'm pleased Petrotal has performance related pay because it drives the right behaviour.
So I think its normal for number of shares to increase in public companies. The key thing is to grow your company faster than you issue shares!
I'd say Petrotal's problem has been limited options to grow. Progress on other parts of block 95 and on block 107 has been slow, though should come together in next 2 years, but block 131 sounds drill ready. Three drill targets identified I believe!
I noticed in webcast both Manolo and FD were both asked for more details on 131 and both declined saying they don't want to say too much until deal completes.
Really hoping for more deals though and for that I think they should use mostly cash. Having cash on balance sheet boosts the share price. It adds to NAV per share, just like buy backs, but it also reduces perceived risk. But production growth is the key objective IMO.
BTW I find Manolo's accent difficult, transcript useful to me but can't always find it:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4692480-petrotal-corp-ptalf-q1-2024-earnings-call-transcript
I tend to agree although TSX might have dictated annual limit. But, if the maximum $12m is utilised, it will exceed the past 12 months' aggregate. I have, however, stopped adding to PTAL until next steps become clearer. Focus has mostly been transferred to PGMs' recovery.
[GGG - I prefer not to add further comment. Being in touch with more than one Canada/USA CEO is useful at times and yesterday's o/t was because there are a couple of TXP investors here.
@Sturm where are you located that has such high dividend tax? That’s pretty brutal!
I thought you were UK based this entire time :D
Honestly, this is pathetic. It's not going to move the SP.
As a LTH with 42% dividend tax, I prefer at better balance between buybacks and dividends to get better compounding. They fail on this. I have around 0.1% of the shares in #PTAL; would like to increase this based on fundamentals, but post tax the return is better elsewhere, especially since it's risky Peru. At least half of any extra dividend should go to buybacks until they have a P/E of 4; then they can revisit the strategy.
"PetroTal intends to purchase up to 14,600,000 Common Shares, representing approximately 2% of its issued and outstanding Common Shares as at May 10, 2024, over a 12-month period commencing on May 24, 2024 and ending no later than May 23, 2025". What they've done so far is just to put a band Aid on the PSU and warrants gift-shop. Guess 2024 will be the same as 2023: "In 2023, PetroTal declared a total of $55.6 million in dividends and repurchased 11,326,806 Common Shares pursuant to the NCIB for a total of $6.5 million." BAD balance for LTH's.
"The Company believes that, at times, the prevailing share price does not reflect the underlying value of its common shares ("Common Shares") and the repurchase of Common Shares for cancellation represents an attractive opportunity to improve PetroTal's per share metrics and thereby increase the value of the Common Shares"
No poop Sherlock. Then bring a bigger axe and try harder!
Viable, can you please elaborate on TXP? Would appreciate knowing what you've heard on this one.
(a) Whilst we know of one fella who can run the company far better than the present management it will be interesting to see allocation of product from LosAngeles: Pucallpa refinery needs what they can get from the 34API trucked product and Bretana requires the blender. To satisfy all PTAL has to find more oil
(b) blank shipment days early May mean what ??? Esmeraldas pilot project in train ???
(c) noted . . . current satellite image shows substantial river bank protection around the jetty
(d) o/t - I received a cautionary note from a Calgary CEO last night (nothing definitive) on TXP so will hold off a bit.
Has paid for itself in another month. Crazy good deal.
And its 5M$ with effective date of acquisition to be January 1, 2024. So we will end up paying way less than 5M$.
Honestly, it's a steal at that price. And the ability to dilute Bretanas heavy oil and increase sales to Iquitos (and reduce blending/diluent costs once ONP is online) is true synergi. Facility should be able to handle 5.5 K BOPD. Might require more CAPEX than cash flow can provide initially, but it's very, very valuable for #PTAL. And it's adjacent to Block 107, which might be another advantage in a few years. Did they mention decommissioning liabilities or any tax advantages?
I really look forward to the half year ER :)
(tinkering) Have been interested in original development of LosAngeles which reveals
"three separate tests have now been conducted across different net pay intervals in the Cushabatay formation under swabbing and natural flow conditions and through variable choke sizes over 22 to 60 hour test periods. Final flow rates from the three test intervals were 135 bbl/d, 936 bbl/d and 2,351 bbl/d respectively of 44° to 45° API light sweet oil. Water cuts ranged from 10% in the lowest interval to 0.3% to nil in upper intervals".
So it looks as though Manolo has a total of three targets to go after with TD of ~12,000 ft. The known field is relatively small but additional seismic could throw up more in Lot 131.
Oh for Pete's sake get on the splitsville bus Anicula Clubbe - a 9 million share dump less than 1% of outstanding shares - dumped by an Institutional investor has the SP bush wacked - imagine what a co-ordinated 3% of float Short dump by a institutional will do to the SP.
Get the share pile floating about back in line with the number of shares matching market cap at least.
$400 million MCAP 400 million share float - kill this languishing SP once and for all.
BUY BACKS are not working
Viable; thank you for your posts, which I value greatly.
. . . no grumbles over a $500m cash pile. Every cent needed for flood control, further jetty/pier development if it is to remain the primary hub, a probable 5 mile pipeline for next stage SE expansion, Osheki/Constitucion exploration well, LosAngeles field, etc.
And Manolo has strongly emphasised "accelerated" M&A activity.
Surely they would never sit on $500m. If we keep building cash above $100m and have transport constraints, then much bigger BBs should come first, and then divi payments. Either way they need to reconsider what they're doing with all the cash. PTAL would be an attractive t/o target based on current fundamentals.
I think the last time they RNS'd a well was 12H so I wouldn't hold my breath for "breaking news". They might do it, who knows, but they might also not. And after all, it's number 18 so it's not going to be a company maker. And they've previously annonced 10 days flush numbers, so that would be end of may, if it's just online now.
Finally they sometimes release buyback RNS' later in the day. It's not always at 7 am.
It's a fairly big and steady company now, not dependent on the outcome of a single well.
Fun fact: in 5 years (after usual dividend and buybacks) they estimate EOY cash to be 500 million. So... either the SP is going to move or the management has got cash flow and capex predictions wrong. I bet on the former... if SP ticks up now or in 2-3 years doesn't matter much to me though.
I wouldn't say the daily volumes make this liquid for a company of £400m mcap. If you're selling less than 100k it won't be a problem. But if a lot of people want to do it at the same time. Or a larger holder is offloading, it will either take a very long time at today's rate, or it will smash the share price. It doesn't look as though the company is all that active in courting major funds or IIs to invest, so it's more likely they;re sellers than buyers. Combine this with confetti shares for mgt and staff and it's little wonder we're struggling to break 50p. One way to counter this is to double the BBs. It will take a little time, but I imagine in 1 year we'll be complaining about 60p being a barrier. If mgt don't want to push PR or court major investors, they can do this to attract more Retail and manage anyone offloading (or the -ve impact of their confetti). Needs a decent well result to get us back to the high 40's, alongside some very good Q2 results in 10 weeks. The latter is all but guaranteed with the 900bopd acquisition and 5% higher oil prices. The former is what we need to be strong to get some eyeballs looking back in this direction. AIMHO GLA
It looks like 18H is needed. Midway through Q2, production looks a bit anaemic and well off 19k guidance.
No share purchases.. must be RNS due on well 18h monday
I think it's quite liquid. I've rarely had any problem trading what I like, although 50k is normally my max. Just not many people trading here, which I can understand, as it's one to hold and forget most of the time.
I've literally never seen a more illiquid share. This is a £400m company and we've had 6 trades...? Absolutely bonkers. And even crazier they are not increasing the BBs to help liquidity (and support the sp). Makes you wonder how Encompass managed to offload 9m shares. It must have taken an age. Hopefully a good well result soon. GLA
Looking at where these markets closed yesterday, we should be trading closer to 48p atm. So looks like great value on AIM!!
here commeth my friends of free amazonia my 100 share gte input - hark yee all - ggg spot on buddy - summation fantastic on the one trick delivery pony to manaus brazil, lack of pipe line facilities constraining petrotal and the rattle around the late night bars alternate routes shipping oil routes ecudor.
add to the mix (thank you sturmvogel) institutional investors dumping and running for the dugout canoe before the dry season starts.
never mind the buzz ****s about buy backs stiffle that deal stifel and co missing the dump - where pray tell if petrotal is such a gem are the retail investors rushing in to suck up the cheap shares ?????
goes to show ptal not on the radar of any decent exchange like the nyse (with sec control slam them fingers in the till) features where bargain vultures would be swooping in like a black friday door buster sale.
but they are not - why - no reverse split to elevate sp above $4 and listing - still in the back waters doing gumbo and rot gut instead of caviar whiskey and cuban cigars.
reverse split grannies ignarus listen to the witch doctor nyami yami of the great amazon.
Totally agree Sturm, I was thinking the same thing. How do you know they offloaded over the last week? I figured they must have been selling down gradually over a number of weeks to get away that many shares. If they've stopped then great for the sp. If not, then I agree the company should buy back whatever they don't want at an agreed price. They could remove up to 6% of shares in one swoop if the intention is for them to sell out completely, and cost a maximum of $30m. I'd be more than happy for them to pause BBs for 1 year afterwards. I think after this next update we should have around $100m, which should easily handle a BB of this scale. They also save on dividends as well if keeping them stable. AIMHO GLA
G_G_G I guess the market has absorbed 9 million shares from Encompass Capital Advisors LLC in the last week and that's a reason why the SP has been a bit weak.
I don't know if it's possible due to regulations; but having some kind of "issuer bid" allowing a big shareholder to dump 9 million shares directly into the company vault as a buy back would be nice. I asked #PTAL abour pro rata by backs from larger shareholders a while back, but got no answer (to that part of the question). It would make sense.