The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I avoid cluttering the board with minutiae other than to say our thorn, James Perez, is being (terminally) threatened by Puinahuans because of his interference . . . and inevitably Mongabay have taken up the cause. It is notable that great numbers well outside the affected downriver area are claiming compensation for the barge spill. Consequently the UK insurer is not paying up.
If the active pilot at OCP has been underway in May at 5000bpd, then production for May is on track. Next operations update for 18H should clarify.
The 5 days of zero production on first week of May was potentially due to some community blockade (they are angry due to March's spillage) though i cant say for sure but for time being that's over as they will have meeting to discuss it.
Since that 1st week of May, they have been consistently having fiscalised production from 8th May-20th May (avg for these 13 days is 17,293) so that's fine. Also important to remember that YTD Lot 95 is about 17.5k but with acquisition of Lot 131, brings YTD figure to about 18.4k currently which is good to see.
Curious to know if they are not going as aggressive with Lot 95 prod (they have been doing about 17k avg since around mid Apr) purely because of the Lot 131 purchase or some other limiting factor.
Thanks viable. From what I can see we're tracking at 13.5kbopd for May - is this correct? If so they're going to need a very strong end of month and June to get us up nearer 20kbopd. April looks solid at 18.3kbopd. Final numbers should be helped by the 900bopd from the acquisition. Bottom line, looks like they need to get their skates on for May / June. GLA
G_G_G with a EV/EBITDA of 2.4x, and free cashflow, they absolutely should.
I'll encourage you to ask #PTAL about why they're not maxing out BB's.
Https://www.perupetro.com.pe/wps/wcm/connect/corporativo/7318e1ef-aaa2-4c91-8313-7d2090cba5fa/Producci%C3%B3n+l%C3%ADquidos.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&liquidos
re: @ 16h22 Steady barge movements which may exclude Esmeraldas pilot
Interested to hear at some stage if Pucallpa refinery is to continue receiving 900bpd, i.e. to keep them operational
Logic suggests buyback habit will be maintained for as long as the PSUs apply and vice versa
PTAL pending further M&A etc likely to remain static for a bit
Anyone have an idea of how much we're producing & delivering at the moment? I'm expecting the next set of results to be more of the same, hopefully without any more capex surprises and more of a cash build. Mgt have really f@cked up by not increasing BBs. They could double without raising a sweat. Looking like very good value again down here though. GLA
Thanks very much.
Longfell:- Yesterday's RNS provided new XDIV date 310524. Payment date stays same - 140624.
Agree, Brent is down about 7% from 1 month and more than 10% vs April highs so not really a surprise if the sp drops since that time.
My opinion is that the recent fall is down entirely to the drop in Brent. No witch doctors involved. Ex Dividend day will bring another 1.2p drop.
GLA it's still a great dividend payer here
Isn't ex-div 30th? The dive happens that day lol.
OOOPssss I forgot to add Bwanaaa Gakuuulluuu Anculia Bayettee to the SP bone chuck SP prediction - please forgive me o Nkozi gaKuluu Velindaba V and Herr Stumvogel Anculia
Lets see what the esteemed have to say Friday 31st May on the ex dividend dive in SP - My plain old Retail investor minnow holdings, incommunicado, un connected to big voltage overhead transmission line feeds, plain vanilla bean and frozen lolly pop prediction is touching the 40 p on the mess of PSU awards and non functional Buy Backs - Boolaaah Booolaaaah Wozaaa Kazi Naieeshhhaaa 40p friday
Barnyards old chap the Duuuuh barb is intended for some kindofnitwit and Anculia clubbe not u - I totally agree with u the bloody buy back enigma and PSU, warrants, river bank reinforcement, pipeline, alternate shipping routes, barging, water levels, tribal war dance........... endless blaaaathering is pointless and useless in reducing share float and increasing SP - time for some barn storming the ramparts in Houston via emails
Duuuuh - we all know warrants were cashed in and converted to shares zooming the float way above 940 million at one time last year - the Amazon Shaman jiggery pokery share buy back does not increase sp period - no matter what extra bleat bleat sacrifices are made via the Anculia clubbe - kill the beast NOW reverse splitt the share float
Warrants were issued in response to field closure during covid, some were converted to shares in 2022, most in 2023.
Last years buy back period commenced on 16th May 2023
on 16th May 2023 there were 884,604,105 shares in circulation
during the ensuing period the company bought back 17,702,694 shares in total
TODAY there are 914,270,730 shares in circulation
an overall INCREASE of 29,666,625 shares (not including the 17.7 million they bought back and cancelled)
with almost 30 million more shares floating around today then surely all any long standing shareholder can openly and honestly say is, what a complete and utter waste of time and money that was 😂
sp is ****e because mgt aren't focused on driving it. if the confetti shares they receive are linked to sp performance you can bet your bottom dollar they would be maxing bbs. they need to find a better balance, because buying back what they award to themselves is clearly p!ssing off investors and not in their interests.
Fantastic Boolaah Boolaah dance - 10/10 olympic Gold - TSX regs allow aprox 44 million share buy back - Stiffle the show clown act accomplish a 17 million buy backs - company RNS issues new buy back amount 14.6 million share over coming year equivalent to cover the up coming 2% PSU awards for the coming year.
ANY one figure out this could be why the SP is tanking ???
Just a small observation that not everyone invested at PTAL are subject to such extreme dividend taxes and are quite happy to be given both buybacks and the opportunity to reinvest dividends here or elsewhere at my own discretion..
Sturm- and indeed buy backs mean less shares to pay dividend on.
But odds of Shell increasing production by a third look small. Small companies can do it though.
So Petrotal could get 5.5k from Block 131. I think I read it'll cost 3 x$12m for 3 wells. So maybe $80m to get that 5.5k?? It's going to need cash anyway.
However older Bretana wells have already returned 5 or 6 times over and will keep producing for decades. I expect the same from 131 especially as it's lighter oil. So drilling beats buy backs imo.
@somekindofnut - I didn't write about growth.
But my wealth will grow much faster from share buybacks than it will from (taxed) dividend. Unless you're not paying tax, compounding 10% vs 10% minus 42% is a HUGE difference. Double your money in 7 years or only add 50%??
It honestly makes no sense when a company is priced like PTAL with a EV/2024 Adjusted EBITDA of 2.4x NOT to buy the maximum number of allowed shares back - and use any excess funds for dividend (or acquisitions for that matter).
I prefer to pay tax when I need the money (buy selling shares), not when PTAL choose to pay dividend. EV/EBITDA of 2.4x explains perfectly why buy backs should be priority 1. Just look at what the oil majors are doing, and their EV/EBITDA is much higher. But then again, people don't understand what share buybacks do, so I should probably just refer to my earlier post here instead.
Sturm- I wasn't talking about what I wanted, I was talking about growth which is what you wanted because you were complaining about tax on dividends?
Dividends are cash going out the door- so they don't grow the company do they. But I'm happy receiving dividends!
What I'm saying is that Petrotal now has increasing options to grow production and that should be how they grow the share price, not buy backs. I'm hoping for 3 wells on block 131 ASAP.
Petrotal have used Black Scholes to calculate how many shares the PSUs equate. It has to be a variable though as it wouldn't be performance related pay if the amount due didn't vary according to performance.
If production doesn't go up (or whatever) they don't get the shares. This is the only way i know of bonus' working. I've never heard of companies saying that if you put in the extra work, you then you don't get extra reward, you just qualify to buy shares.
Anyway, take that $5m. In practice it'll be less, but in theory they are spending it on block 131. That could have been spent on increasing dividend to 2cents or on buy backs. I'm saying the best use of cash is production growth which will hopefully lead to both share price growth and dividend growth.
Anyway, you don't have to agree. ;-)
Hi viable, probably a stupid question but what do you mean by o/t?