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Not that heavy tbf. And another batch of warrents/more dilution isn't really helping.
At least (at last) the number of warrants & PSU's outstanding is tolerable now.
I wouldn't mind a bit stronger number of buybacks for a quarter.
Heavy buying last 3 sessions and price hardly moving.... dont get it
Looks like a few people using their ISA allowance late on.. just worked out at 20,000 bopd at $90 oil is a nett of $38 pb. thats 275,000,000 dollars free cash flow this year
That would be fiction. No chance that a Chinese company would invest in #PTAL without management notifying the market.
Re. LotX: It's in NW of Peru, so the "old" benefits of pursuing lighter oil fields in the Amazonas to reduce diluent costs (ONP, and heavy oil of Bretana) don't apply to that field. IMO it's not on Manolo's bucket list.
I'm not sure what future CNPC has in Peru. They operate Lot X, but the license is due to expire in May, with the bidding round supposedly ongoing with the winner announced on 8th April (that's Monday) :
Https://www.upstreamonline.com/production/new-operator-on-menu-for-one-of-peru-s-largest-fields/2-1-1605914
That was in Feb though, and this article says bugger all interest in Lot X:
https://gestion.pe/economia/nadie-pugna-por-lote-x-y-perupetro-amplia-plazo-hasta-hoy-para-recibir-interesados-noticia
Manalo said he was interested ( webcast with analysts) in picking up one of these mature fields, but don't think it was Lot X? I think there's 5 or 6 fields in need of modern methods and looking for new operators.
I think WF got the Chinese bid thing from this Canadian board;
https://ceo.ca/tal
All just speculation as far as I can see, happy to be shown otherwise..
I know nothing more other than a post on Stockhouse Bullboards under TAL.......could be bull.
Dont know about an approach or not I do know this.
2024 funds flow forecast to reach $160 million and free funds flow (after capex but prior to net working capital cash adjustments) of $25 million using the December 14, 2023 Brent oil strip ($77/bbl flat in 2024) with an estimated incremental $10 million of free funds flow for every $3/bbl change in Brent oil price; that's a possible $40 million more..
Do you have link to that? Haven’t heard of that anywhere.
Brent just breached $90. I think it’s flying a bit too high as CB’s will look to prices of fuel etc when deciding rate cuts :/ would be happy with it hovering at $85
It appears that discussions are underway regarding a potential acquisition or investment by a Chinese company in Petrotal. Such deals could indeed have a significant impact on the company's operations and its future development. Stay tuned for further developments as these discussions progress.
I love your charming wit spongeBob. Brightens up a wet Friday.
You should be buying the lambos with the GTE profits. What are you doing here!?
Sister #1 NYSE GTE split baby - reverse split and hit the big city boards and the bright lights and is currently trading way up @ $8.25 a share from $5.
Sister #2 LSE PTAL stayed in the deep dark jungle with all the other bunnies on pittance share buy backs and still stuck on the river bank @ > £0.50 a share.
And the Granny club is still squawking like parrots about the BUY BACK and Dividends.
Meanwhile the retail bag holders are squealing like piggies on a friday after prayers about the dead SP.
Q2 23 sales/production were a company record, with a few days lost to river blockades and at a Brent price of $77, so there are grounds for cautious optimism. I'd really like to see Ptal hitting the ball out of the park in Q2 with production over 20,000bpd before the vagaries of H2 set in.
Recent performance/oil price does suggest considerable room to raise, but as I've said before, I'd prefer the steady and sure 2c which is already a handsome shareholder reward. I'd rather ad hoc specials as (outperformance) warrants, without holding itself hostage to fortune. I am a BIG fan of the conservative pragmatism here, of it's expectation setting, of not shooting the stars out, just delivering consistently and constantly. Because of the mgmt style, I don't ever see the SP skylining, just a slow and sure drip drip rise, and I'll take that every day rather than the usual rollercoaster of broken projections ended.ic in AIM/small stock.
Just thinking about that divi too. I can't see more than 2 cents. but that's really fine by me. I do see the share price move up now. I'm seeing 55 p by next qtr results and a qtr divi of 2.5 cents, then maybe 2.5 and a 3 cents final so 9 centyts for this year with a average share price of 55p for the year giving a really great divi yield. good night!
Yeah, my glass is always full (who wants a half full glass?) The company's past performance is maybe the reason I'm so enthusiastic here!
DD)) . . . real optimism there. Overall, my greatest near-term expectations are pinned to 3D results on the SE extension. If spectacular Manolo could well be on his way to a $2bn valuation.
Thinking about the next dividend announcement, perhaps in around 3 weeks time (25 April last year).
Assuming 1.5c covered at $77 Brent, and average in Q1 was $83. Gives surplus over budget of $6 *18k (bopd average)*90 days = $9,720k over budget, or a tad over 1c per share. So in my view 2.5c would be my guess for next month. However if Brent stays at current level for next 3 weeks that is trending for 2c per share above budget for Q2, and production may also beat forecast, so maybe a bumper 3.5c possible in q3.
A 2.5c dividend in Q1, gives a rolling 1 year return of 9c, which equates to approx 16% yield at exchange rate of 1.25 and shareprice of 45p.
A bumper dividend in Q2 would increase rolling yield further.
Happy days!
Less refining capacity should mean less refined oil so more crude gets exported and therefore lower crude oil prices.
And that's what's happening. The amount of Russian oil at sea has hits 2024 record:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russias-Oil-Exports-By-Sea-Hit-New-2024-Record.html
But it's not the only thing happening. Putin cutting production, adhering to OPEC cuts, not cheating etc, that's a choice.
Somekindofdonut i think putler is busy with enstinguishing whatever left from his rafineries after drones attacks. They stoped exports on ready fuels.
I think Putin is keen on high oil price to continue to pay for his war and to put pressure on Biden.
High pump prices and inflation are huge vote losers and this is election year.
I wouldn't be surprised to see oil spike in run up to November.
Brent closed over $89 today. Looking unlikely to fall back until after the next Petrotal update.
Q1 production was 18.284 BOPD. A bit below guidance.
Sales might be lower or higher - still a lot of inventory in ONP.
Peru remains high risk. Just look at the current government issues. So it's not going to trade at P/E 8-10 this decade.
I doubt there's any manipulation. But I don't really care much about short term share price. Happy with cheap share buybacks = my share of #PTAL increase = future dividend to me increases. And the dividend yield for me for invested capital is >>33%, so why the f care about 5-10% share price movements?
There's hardly any short in the share - being short in a share with positive cash flow and share buybacks is a no-no for any hedge manager. Might be miniscule shorts for hedging (from management or holders), but that's not speculative.
No need for a tin foil hat.
Outstanding last 6 days in March, that's a minimum 2c Q1 dividend. Q2 could be a humdinger.