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Taken from MSN feed:
"Russian Deputy prime minister Alexander Novak said on Friday that the country’s oil companies will focus on reducing output rather than exports in the second quarter in order to evenly spread production cuts with other OPEC+ members.
Drone attacks from Ukraine have knocked out several Russian refineries, which is expected to reduce Russia’s fuel exports.
“Geopolitical risks to crude and heavy feedstock supplies add to strong (second-quarter) demand fundamentals,” Energy Aspects analysts said in a note.
Almost 1m barrels a day (bpd) of Russian crude processing capacity is offline from the attacks, affecting its high-sulphur fuel oil exports which are processed at Chinese and Indian refineries, the consultancy added."
Appears that $85+ crude price will be here perhaps for the rest of the year and beyond. Certainly the above has a significant impact, plus years of global under investment on the supply-side, as well as, I also consider that the general masses have become accustomed to relatively 'high' petrol prices. Other demand side contributors include the rapid rise of the the middle classes in India and their demand for travel, which in turn is fuelling the momentum in the numbers of planes and aviation fuel. A further significant demand side affect is the current red sea Houthi attacks that have resulted in commercial ships taking longer journeys around the Cape of Good Hope thereby requiring more fuel.
All of the above means PTAL will be benefit from high crude prices for the foreseeable and in turn cash should be rolling-in. So that begs the question, why hasn't PTAL's stock price moved. Possible answers include: the price has already moved 232% during the past 2 years and it needs a breather, with long-term holders taking some profits and de-risking; ESG - oil is just not the flavour of our time and so large institutions will no longer invest in the sector (which also in-turn impacts of supply-side investment); and perceived regional instability. However in respect to this point, at national level and largely at the community level PTAL (but not with everyone) appear to be well respected; Then there are private investors who glance at a stock paying very high dividend returns and without analysing further discard it as "too good to be true."
So, what can PTAL do to raise the stock price? As far as I can see, very little more than what they are already doing. They are increasing production, engaging with the local community, communicating with their share holders and paying handsome returns. So, I am comfortable with the price where it is, and look forward to making a top-up at the start of the financial year, whilst collecting 12%+.
I'm not interested in what PTAL does to move the SP. Their Comms/agenda setting/pragmatism already leave many in the shade. If you are too lazy to read such, tough. Meanwhile I'll just take the money (divis)
Brent strengthening above $87, with OPEC+ meeting this week likely to continue current policies
Brent above $88 and still this doesnt move.... pure manipulation for some unknown reason. I reckon there is a bid on the way...
Am expecting the Q1 update RNS around 25th Apr to show healthy results.
Perupetro reporting figures up to 31st March:
7 day avg: 24,425
March avg: 17,748
2024 YTD: 18,284
Have feeling their Q1 avg reported on the RNS will exceed 18,500.
Funnily enough I was just looking upp when the Q1 and liquidity statements are coming so you are spot on. I think they are going to be massive numbers.
Must admit I see little evidence of manipulation. No A trades, but low volume so expect sudden short term moves. Some trading opportunity but easy to miss a re-rate when it comes if you're unlucky. Personally building slowly and trading only a small volume of my holding.
Trading over 4 different markets keeps this share price relatively stable, which is good.
Bought today as there are plenty of reasons to expect higher oil prices for next few months at least.
GLA
Outstanding last 6 days in March, that's a minimum 2c Q1 dividend. Q2 could be a humdinger.
Q1 production was 18.284 BOPD. A bit below guidance.
Sales might be lower or higher - still a lot of inventory in ONP.
Peru remains high risk. Just look at the current government issues. So it's not going to trade at P/E 8-10 this decade.
I doubt there's any manipulation. But I don't really care much about short term share price. Happy with cheap share buybacks = my share of #PTAL increase = future dividend to me increases. And the dividend yield for me for invested capital is >>33%, so why the f care about 5-10% share price movements?
There's hardly any short in the share - being short in a share with positive cash flow and share buybacks is a no-no for any hedge manager. Might be miniscule shorts for hedging (from management or holders), but that's not speculative.
No need for a tin foil hat.
Brent closed over $89 today. Looking unlikely to fall back until after the next Petrotal update.
I think Putin is keen on high oil price to continue to pay for his war and to put pressure on Biden.
High pump prices and inflation are huge vote losers and this is election year.
I wouldn't be surprised to see oil spike in run up to November.
Somekindofdonut i think putler is busy with enstinguishing whatever left from his rafineries after drones attacks. They stoped exports on ready fuels.
Less refining capacity should mean less refined oil so more crude gets exported and therefore lower crude oil prices.
And that's what's happening. The amount of Russian oil at sea has hits 2024 record:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russias-Oil-Exports-By-Sea-Hit-New-2024-Record.html
But it's not the only thing happening. Putin cutting production, adhering to OPEC cuts, not cheating etc, that's a choice.