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Part 1.
I've just skimmed through a week or so of posts, and think it appropriate to make a couple of comments. For the anally retentive, this is all only my opinion, and I recognise that my geology degree and practical O & G experience are increasingly outdated. If you disagree with my opinions, feel free to say why and quote some references in support of your views.
* Gharwar nonsense. Nowhere has GRH suggested that Guercif is a second Gharwar in size, nor likely to be anything approaching it. The mention was clearly in relation to the time taken to recognise the scale of Gharwar – this holds true for almost every large field - for example the two largest oilfields in N. America, Midway-Sunset & Kern River, were both discovered in the 19th century but took almost a further century for their full scale to be determined. It appears that GRH has been deliberately misquoted by the usual suspects, whose agenda is to ridicule knowledgeable posters and confuse the unwary.
* Giant Field. It is generally accepted that a 'Giant' field is one with recoverable oil greater than 500 MMBbl oil / 3 TCF gas. I think this is achievable for Guercif, but of course in line with the above, it will take some years to prove it up. I suspect the MOU-Fan & MOU-NE could provide the 3 TCF on their own. Paul has stated they know of another 19 prospects. One of these is a MOU-NE lookalike, which actually produced a substantial quantity of oil in the 1920's, before running into technical problems that they could not resolve given the early stage of the industry. Given the stated intention of prove up & sell off this year, it is obvious that most of the resource definition will be carried out by the purchaser over the next decade or so, hence the importance of PRD retaining stub equity or a royalty.
Triassic potential. The TAGI sands are one of the main oil & gas reservoirs across North Africa. Sound's Tendrara (discovered by Paul Griffiths) is Triassic. Much of the Guercif basin is underlain by Triassic, but exploration is currently limited by depth – the SV-101 rig is specced to 2000m, the Triassic is deeper than that in most places – except for underneath MOU-NE. As suggested, some hydrocarbon charge my come laterally from younger Jurassic source rocks where there has been vertical displacement. If you look at this ONHYM report, relating to the Guercif Basin from p.12 onwards: https://hydrocarbons.onhym.com/sites/all/themes/hydrocarbure/images/pdf_onshore/Hydrocarbon%20Exploration%20Opportunities_Onshore.pdf
you will see that high levels of organic carbon are found in Ordovician & Silurian shales, and these been sufficiently buried to be mature for oil which would migrate into the overlying Triassic (and also Carboniferous which exists over part of the Guercif licences). So two or three possible sources for Triassic hydrocarbons.
Part 2.
* Thin beds. I suspect many will be a little surprised about the potential gas charge of thin reservoir beds – those of one metre or less. There appear to be very many of these turned up in the rock chips, but seismic has insufficient resolution to show them. There is plenty of gas in equivalent thin beds in the Rharb basin to the west, but in the MOU-Fan there are not only more of them in a greater overall thickness of sediments, but they are of very considerable lateral extent. I am not aware of any evidence of significant compartmentalisation by minor faulting as has been suggested here – there appear to be two significant faults that divide the MOU-Fan into three large compartments, which have been penetrated by MOU-2, -3 & -4 respectively. Each of these drills will have gone through multiple thin reservoir beds.
With regard to lateral extent, I suggest you read the post by Caterham7 on 29th June 2023. He knows more about turbidites than everybody else on this board put together, having specialised in these deposits over several decades working for industry majors. I have edited it here slightly for brevity:
“Examples of sub-meter sands proven to be laterally continuous over many kilometres, are observable in both field outcrops and field well databases. Good examples can be read in this very nice paper, starting at bottom of page 37.
https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/131925/7/1-s2.0-S0264817218302551-main.pdf
it is proven that turbidite thickness and lateral connectivity are controlled by the complex interplay of the following variables (rather than “the size of the event”)
1. Is the turbidite system sand rich (low efficiency) or mud rich (high efficiency)? Remember that the finer grained sands generally found in thinner beds will travel further, ie, classic Bouma sequence.
2. The volume and energy of the turbidite flow (commonly referred to as the ‘stroke’)
3. Where abouts in the fan lobe are you measuring the thickness? A non-tabular turbidite bed will feather and thin toward the lobe margins.
4. How confined is the basin floor on which the turbidite is deposited? An unconfined basin will let the lobes spread laterally for great distances, resulting in better developed marginal thin-bed facies.
Lots of public domain literature on Google, giving many examples of thin bed turbidites with immense lateral continuity.
https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/199293397.pdf
https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/82011/3/Puasa-I-2018-PhD-Thesis.pdf
If you want to better understand the geology of turbidites, I highly recommend exploring the extensive outcrops of Arnot Basin (France), Tabarnas Basin (Spain), and Karoo Basin (South Africa). I have taught Turbidite field classes in all locations, and I used to teach classes in deep-water depositional systems for a major oil company whose logo is the Pecten Shell.”
Sorry, forgot to add that the faulting seen in the MOU-Fan is more of the nature of fault zones rather than individual fault planes. These are very likely to act as feeder zones, acting as conduits for gas to all potential reservoirs abutting these zones. The fault zones do not reach the surface, being sealed by deposition of later impervious rock layers before the gas migration began. Even if minor faulting is present, not discernible by seismic, this may not result in compartmentalisation, but may in fact increase the likelihood of the whole thick succession being connected both vertically and laterally.
Wow, thanks again to keith, grh, and c7 and all of the genuine, knowledgeable people,giving there time and experience to help us normal folk in our investment decisions, 7tcf has been talked about for a while,its 1 of the reasons i was happy to invest so much,as well as the inputs from industry experts ,and the expert people running the company ,this has the possibility of interconnecting areas to boost the gas volumes. and oil was always a extra possibility and to know that we have a good chance to upgrade the old oil wells in morocco from circa 1920,s will be another welcome bonus,i take it that is also the plan in trinidad, upgrading old wells for 1 to 3tcf? and not forgetting we are 1 of only 2 companys with a license for ireland. we are just waiting for the sand jetting to start and a positive outcome to put us back on track for a take off deal, and lorries of cng from well head to customers and profits, a exciting 2024 awaits. manys thanks again to the people giving there knowledge on geology,oil/gas , i for one , am not able to comprehend the massive amounts of information without all of your help putting it into laymans terms. gla.
Thank you Keith for sharing your considerable knowledge and expertise….. fabulous reading to wake up to on a Sunday morning 😊
Huge thanks Keith, as ever. It’s fascinating and invaluable to read authoritative information on all those subjects. (And thanks to Caterham too if he’s reading this.)
When I was searching around yesterday on the issue of source rocks, I kept thinking to myself “I bet Keith knows exactly what the answer is”... And I was right! 😉
Really appreciate you taking the time to explain everything 👍
Well I must also add my thanks to Keith (and other contributors), to a fabulously put together post, which goes someway in explaining in layman terms on the geology of the Guercif region and hence the petroleum prospects 👍
Morning all,
Thank you Keith for taking the time to put together a comprehensive, detailed and well thought out post.
This comment at the end did stand out.
“this may not result in compartmentalisation, but may in fact increase the likelihood of the whole thick succession being connected both vertically and laterally.”
Imo, when we gain and retain control of sv101 rig, for as long as required, a re entry of Mou2 may prove up Paul’s theory of a 1000 ft Gas column.
It maybe a stand alone structure, but then again, it maybe not.
Time will tell.
Atb
Wacky.
I mentioned the Giant (3.5 billion Bbl of oil, equivalent to 21 TCF gas) Midway-Sunset oilfield in California. I've put a chart on X showing how it has developed from humble beginnings in 1899 through to the present day. Rome was not built in a day, neither will be Guercif.
https://twitter.com/KQuick20704342/status/1789598569487532064
Another reason why predator is head and shoulders above most.
The quality of some of its shareholders.
Here's some history that may be of interest.
1. The Institute of Petroleum Journal, 1936: Vol 22, p 239:
"At Tizeroutine, in Taza, a seepage of very light oil occurs in a complex of Eocene—Cretaceous folds, and geological studies and some shallow drilling have been accomplished. One well has reached a depth of 700 m., but the work is now suspended. The first real encouragement was obtained when the well “ Tselfat 26" gushed in 1926."
This is MOU-NW, on PRD's licence area.
2. Dunstan's Science of Petrology, 1938, p. 186:
"North Africa. Seepages are known in the Earache district of Spanish Morocco, and are common in the triangular region, mainly in French Morocco, formed by Earache, Tizeroutine, and Meknes [partly within PRD licence area] ...... In 1934 a well on the broken, elevated Djebl Tselfat structure gave 250 tons of oil per day, but further work has shown the productive area to be limited to 120 acres, and to be partly water-flooded. The productive horizon is a Triassic limestone which appears to be or to have been oil-bearing over an area of at least 16 miles by 12 miles. Research has largely eliminated the possibilities of much oil in beds younger than the Jurassic, and efforts are being concentrated on finding Triassic limestones or older beds under suitably sealed conditions. The types of structure under investigation include folds with the Domerian crest near the surface; deeper crests beyond the frontal faults, and Triassic structures beneath discordant Cretaceous beds. The last group is of considerable importance, for this concealed condition obtains in about three-quarters of the suitable area in northern Morocco."
The exploration work referred to was stopped the following year (1939) due to the outbreak of WW2.
If this prospect was even 25% as good as some of the contributers like to portray on this forum institutional buyers would be flocking in to buy.
The fact that it appears there is no such appetite in these companies investing in PRD tells me to be extremely wary and not to believe a few armchair commentators that frequent this forum.
The very same ones that have been saying the same regurgitated hype for at least the last 3 years I have been watching this forum.
Nothing significant at all has sustained any type of rise in the shareprice. Any rise of note normally triggers a raise and further dilution to the faithful few long term investors. Rinse and repeat.
AV,
I bet you’re fun at parties. The type to ask the DJ to turn it down a bit.
Perhaps AV institutional investors are waiting like many for flow tests and the business model proven.
Sounds about right to me.
Anti_venom just wants a reaction to their post so that people will report it and then the excellent thread from Keith would likely be removed - either filter them or ignore them so that this thread will remain
Caterham7
Posted in: PRD
Posts: 763
Price: 11.375
No Opinion
RE: Continuity, or not...29 Jun 2023 15:22
Mariachi - your comments regards turbidite continuity are largely incorrect.
Examples of sub-meter sands proven to be laterally continuous over many kilometres, are observable in both field outcrops and field well databases. Good examples can be read in this very nice paper, starting at bottom of page 37.
https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/131925/7/1-s2.0-S0264817218302551-main.pdf
You make two incorrect statements
1. “These are turbiditic sands and the thickness directly relates to the size of the event.”
2. “ plenty of sands to go after but individually small as not extensive laterally”
In reality, it is proven that turbidite thickness and lateral connectivity are controlled by the complex interplay of the following variables (rather than “the size of the event”)
1. Is the turbidite system sand rich (low efficiency) or mud rich (high efficiency). Remember that the finer grained sands generally found in thinner beds will travel further, ie, classic Bouma sequence.
2. The volume and energy of the turbidite flow (commonly referred to as the ‘stroke’)
3. Where abouts in the fan lobe are you measuring the thickness? A non-tabular turbidite bed will feather and thin toward the lobe margins.
4. How confined is the basin floor on which the turbidite is deposited? An unconfined basin will let the lobes spread laterally for great distances, resulting in better developed marginal thin-bed facies.
Lot of public domain literature on Google, giving many examples of thin bed turbidites with immense lateral continuity.
https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/199293397.pdf
https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/82011/3/Puasa-I-2018-PhD-Thesis.pdf
If you want to better understand the geology of turbidites, I highly recommend exploring the extensive outcrops of Arnot Basin (France), Tabarnas Basin (Spain), and Karoo Basin (South Africa). I have taught Turbidite field classes in all locations, and I used to teach classes in deep-water depositional systems for a major oil company whose logo is the Pecten Shell.
Apologies for my extended absence from this BB. I was involved in a horrific car crash (not my fault) in April. Fifteen broken bones, cranial fracture, and seven weeks in hospital. Still house bound. Following my investments seemed rather irrelevant. Still holding all my PRD shares, and happy to leave BB in Keith’s capable hands.
Thanks Keith and others for comments.
1. Turbidite sands lateral continuity is not linked to reservoir thickness. Hence importance of lateral continuity of top seal for stratigraphic closures which are higher risk.
2. Most wells in the area have multiple sand packages and only some are likely gas bearing, so something else is influencing gas trapping and even if turbidite are present they may not be gas bearing. Note the gas cloud indicating gas escape to the east of mou 2.
3. Minor intra reservoir faulting can probably be ignored for gas migration purposes overall geological time, however from a production point of view they are very important as they are choke points in the reservoir requiring a higher production well density, hence impact economics of producing from different production compartments.
I consider the top seal continuity as the key risk to be validated.
Jimmy
I wonder if commencement of Sand Jet needs to be RNS'd or just the results.
PG has made clear it isn't up to him to create trading opportunities so dare say he'd quite like to just announce results if he could.
Not suggesting it has started just wondering aloud about what form news may take.