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No guarantees in life of course, but for me, I like the risk/reward ratio in this one - but the sizeable dividend is crucial to this opinion.
I also think that at some point, we will enjoy some decent capital gains on top (a much higher SP than today), but that is not something that I expect to see in the next 12 months anyway.
Naturally I would be delighted if this proves to be unduly pessimistic, but cautious expectations are IMO sensible, given the macros etc.
@LWHL
I guess you are right, we don't need to know too much with a 6p annual divi on a 67.5p stock where the management are well invested...
Not a clue :) IMO just generally tracking the wider market indices. 4th July for ex dividend and currently circa 8.6%. That is what I do know... GLA.
I added a few at 69.5p last night before the close, doesn't look so clever now...
Any idea why they have dropped faster than a scrubbers drawers since yesterday ?
May be missing it but I see no news...
I did not listen to it at the time but regardless remain long here. Although I naturally regret not taking profits back in the 80's now, lol.
I did think about it, but felt we had more in the tank. And this one is in my bottom draw basket, so to speak, so I try not to trade such ones as I do others. Sometimes rightly, sometimes wrongly :)
Now I think we are going to see 64p, perhaps as low as 62p-ish prior to ex div. Which will be my add point, if it comes to pass. Will be over 9% dividend then. GLA.
I agree that there was nothing about a potential future dividend cut in the RNS, but most of the highlighted bullet points showed a decline versus equivalent 2023 data, so a red day was IMO nailed on.
I am pleasantly surprised at how strong the SP has recovered at the time of print from the 10% drop earlier.
That is a surprise to me. Not complaining though either :) GLA.
Looking at the SP movement today, I must have read a different RNS to the market....
As for the dividend message priming for a reduction, I didn't see that at all, quite the opposite. I saw a prudent acknowledging that healthy cash supported a maintained level, shareholders patience, with a view to a return to a progressive dividend policy - whilst not holding itself to fortune.
Good update, good dividend position, irrational SP reaction.
Started: Everestingly, 30 May 2024 07:42
Last post: LWHL, 30 May 2024 09:21
I agree - anything much less than this though, and it loses a lot of its lustre, on a risk/reward basis IMO.
Going to be tempted to add if we see 68p, personally. But no rush either. We could easily have a retest of the 50 DMA in the days ahead, feasibly. GLA.
Hasn't gone down too well with investors this morning. Top up opp tho.
Even if they kept the dividend at 3p and 3p, that is still almost 8%. Well above the RFR. Historically though the dividend has been a lot higher. That is the incentive to park cash here. You could be on a 20% yield in a year or 2.
A dividend cut would get a justifiably negative market reaction. They need to make it worth the while of investors to park cash here, rather than a risk-free one year government bond at 4.8% for example.
I would expect them to make some significant business cost (payroll) savings, before entertaining such an action as that.
More immediately, I would like to see some decent inside buying again here in the days ahead.
Yes, it was a good update. Liked the improving fund flows recently and positive outlook. Feels like they are laying the groundwork for final divi cut potentially? Or have they held the interim at 3p with a view to potentially holding the full year at 3p, but they have bought some wriggle room if required? Impax sold off heavily yesterday albeit their fund flow message and dividend calc was poorer.
Started: Everestingly, 13 May 2024 09:28
Last post: LWHL, 30 May 2024 07:26
Adequate update IMO, although I would be (pleasantly) surprised if that 83.50p a week or so ago, does not turn out to be the top for a while now.
Was always intended to be one for the bottom draw, as long as the dividends flowed, so no change for me.
A hold at this price for me, but will consider adding a few more if we get a notable sell off at some point.
I look forward to hearing the opinions of others before Mr Market gives us his verdict! GLA.
Looks like your gut feeling was right. Not sure if this is just a healthy pull back, or a top for now.
Still relatively relaxed with my own decision not to take some profits around the 83p level, although if we revisit 75p or lower, then I will be kicking myself a little bit :)
Fair enough if you have spotted a better opportunity somewhere else but I am currently up 44% and not going anywhere! Think there's plenty more to go.
Looking at that chart, and the recent volume, I am not slicing any myself right now, but to each their own. GLA.
Don't. I am still down 40%.
Started: Everestingly, 21 May 2024 20:19
Last post: Everestingly, 21 May 2024 20:19
Agreed - on a 12 month view there is still significant upside here but expect there will be a pull back at some point soonish. Potentially the results next week might be that point for a breather?
Either way, it feels like 3 years since we’ve been able to ‘buy the dips’ but hopefully that strategy should start to work if we are in a new bull market
Started: Everestingly, 29 Apr 2024 16:53
Last post: bobsson, 30 Apr 2024 16:31
The yield is also attractive at around 7.5%
Great point. Hopefully there will be a sustained money flow back into UK small and mid caps, not just temporarily.
From a macro perspective, we need it. GLA.
PMI is pretty much a leveraged play on UK small and mid caps. Money is flowing back in to these at pace, so with a positive Q2 aum note a couple of weeks ago from PMI, the outlook seems fairly positive.
Started: barchid, 12 Apr 2024 09:30
Last post: LWHL, 29 Apr 2024 14:53
Why this rise? I mean, great to see of course, but it seems to be an out-sized move and not simply sector specific, as far as I can tell.
Satisfactory update. Token inside buy the other day. Would like to see some more meaty purchases in the next few days quite frankly, but regardless, happy hold at the time of print for me. Especially after the mid 50's purchase I made recently.
Nice when your timing is good (and in my case, often quite rare!) GLA.
I think POLR had a good announcement yesterday as well.
Plus recent director buy here.
A much more positive AUM announcement today, this must surely be a good time to invest, albeit with some risk but to me the risk/reward ratio is much better after these figures ?
Started: Scarfell, 31 Mar 2024 19:17
Last post: Scarfell, 31 Mar 2024 19:17
Jeez - fat cats get fatter - meanwhile ordinary shareholders suffer further losses.
Started: thriller40, 26 Jan 2024 17:22
Last post: Dartron, 4 Mar 2024 22:38
Was just investigating...
Data on the IC platform shows adjusted EPS-23, which for the year just gone was 8.8p. The FY dividend was approximately 68% of adjusted EPS at 6p. The forecast Adj EPS for 24 is 6p. In that case there is hope that they can pay another 6p out in my opinion. I think they will want to, and they certainly have cash reserves, and may wish to behave more like an investment trust, where they maintain the dividend on a 'bad year'. If they kept up with the 66% of AdjEPS, we would be looking at 4p full year. Still ok IMO and a yield of 7% at todays price.
Market screener which uses EPS (non adjusted) does not paint such a rosy picture, with EPS of 0.6p next year., so in real terms the dividend is not well covered. What ever happens, historically this provides a great yield, so even if it were lowered, the pay back will be in years to come, when at todays price you could be on a 20% yield. Seems the broker target here is 87p NTM. Mainly rated as a hold / buy.
I do not think the next one has been confirmed yet (not on their website anyway).
I know the last one in February was 3p. I was wondering about the one later in the year.
The final dividend was 3p and paid on 16th February. The interim dividend amount is likely to be announced in June and likely paid in August.
Do you know if the divident is staying at 3p or reducing to 2p. Someone said it was getting reduced, but haven't seen any news on it.
Started: thriller40, 24 Jan 2024 14:09
Last post: thriller40, 24 Jan 2024 14:09
Planing on increasing my holding that these prices divident is decent.
Started: Everestingly, 20 Jan 2024 10:10
Last post: barchid, 20 Jan 2024 11:09
Everestingly
Agreed, I chose it for recovery over Liontrust as it seems an easier company to understan
I think it is also useful that commentators with large retail followers are also positive on pmi and the wider sector:
1. Paul Scott and the stockopedia team called out pmi last week, saying oversold, strong balance sheet, high yield (see small caps podcast last Saturday).
2. Paul Hill said he has recently bought for exactly the same reasons (see stockpickers from yesterday)
Started: barchid, 21 Dec 2023 12:34
Last post: LWHL, 15 Jan 2024 08:28
I have not watched it yet, but will try and make the time to do so.
Good to hear positive feedback from those who have, though.
That is what I want from this holding: well run, costs carefully managed and a decent dividend to reward loyalty in the shareholder base.
I have plenty of excitement in other equities. Boring, consistent returns is the only thing I seek from PMI :) GLA.
LWHL
Agreed, in fact I have always thought, & after watching this weeks webinar my feelings were reinforced, that this is a well run business in a cyclical industry which is probably at the bottom of its cycle, hence an excellent tuck away.
And that is fair enough too. Not a screaming buy right now IMO, but one that (subject to the obvious caveats) I am happy to continue to keep in the bottom draw, while I focus on managing a range of other equities more actively. GLA.
Fair enough …. As I said I stepped sideways … 2p of yesterday’s fall would have been my sales. The 75% of fund managers claim beating benchmarks is a little optimistic in my view … along with the measurement criteria. Most UK PMI funds have difficulties beating the FTSE350 over a 5 year period … and what really worried me were claims of “no benchmark” so we compared with FTSE350 and underperformed … not what I’d expect from a professional organisation, so I’ve taken a small hit in sidestepping but I like to sleep at night. GLA holders.
Well, I thought it was a solid enough update. Current dividend is good enough too.
More of a hold, than a buy for me, which is fine. GLA.
Started: Everestingly, 13 Jan 2024 08:30
Last post: Everestingly, 13 Jan 2024 08:30
I also thought the presentation was good. The leading indicator point for me was around the level of interest they had had for some presentation recently - they said they needed to hire out double the size conference facility vs 12 months ago. With the annual dividend (current 10% yield) effectively covered for 2 years by unrestricted cash (£18m), coupled with future fund inflows and a potential rising market, this share is strongly positioned for 2024. I tripled my initial q4 investment in PMI at the back end of the year and also broadened out into LIO. Sector AUM comps over the last week or so also confirm the trend. Fingers crossed here but signs are good…..
Started: thriller40, 19 Dec 2023 09:52
Last post: thriller40, 19 Dec 2023 09:52
Originally in here at £1.15 averaged down to 90 pence hoping to build up a larger holding once I have spare cash. My isa allowance is maxed out so not much spare cash in the account as everything I'd invested. Am gonna have to keep spare cash in the account for future price drops. Rolls royce is my biggest star at the moment only wish I had invested more there.
Started: thriller40, 24 Nov 2023 19:39
Last post: damofarl, 5 Dec 2023 22:20
I don't think the run up to 60 was a surprise, merely a minor correction of being over sold. Yes difficult times, as can be seen by the whole sector's cratering, in an economy not conducive, with ETFs continually removing their market/proposition. There are too many, yes, but still a role, and consolidation is necessary for survival, but in such there is great opportunity for those in the quality sphere.
The end of the bosses commentary referred to their scalability (underutilisation). They could have maintained the dividend, what with a third mkt cap in cash, and that they didn't, along with the recent purchase, shows that consolidation is there vision here. The economies/efficiencies of scale (cost reduction) will allow the quality to not only survive but prosper.
I hold a number of asset managers, and despite the structural threat of ETFs, think most are deeply undervalued, in their earnings alone, let alone the uplift that a KKR type consolidation of the sector would bring.
And I say that as someone who first bought here at £1.10! Frankly to still receive a 5% income in a bombed out stock in a bombed out sector, shows you the oppurtunity in PMI when either or both the economy turns or consolidation occurs.
Yes. In the bottom draw. The worry free bottom draw.
About in line with my expectations. Was surprised to see the SP run up to the 60's pre-results.
I will add a few more if we return to the low 50's in the weeks ahead, which IMO is about the right price at the time of print.
Would also like to see some more inside buying shortly too.
Satisfied enough to keep these in the bottom draw though for when better times arise. GLA.
Alongside the interim dividend of 3p we have decided to recommend a final dividend of 3p, bringing the total dividend for the year to 6p, equal to approximately 68% of adjusted EPS of 8.8p.
If approved by shareholders at the Annual General Meeting on 7 February 2024, the dividend will be paid on 16 February 2024 to shareholders on the register at the close of business on 19 January 2024.
Even the 3p on its own is a 5% yield currently. If we guess that a 2p interim will be paid in 6 months then we have a yield of 8.6%. In years to come, if this got back to 13p then the yield from todays buy in price would be 22.4%. One to hold with little down side IMO.
Final is 3p
Will see if they maintain or cut it. seems to be getting paid later next year
Started: Everestingly, 14 Nov 2023 08:46
Last post: thriller40, 22 Nov 2023 19:01
That's a desent dividend you will be collecting next year. Am not heavily invested here. Am thinking this is a better earning than my legal and general shares.
Thanks for the info Paul, appreciate you posting this. I will take a look tonight
Looks to me as though someone has leaked tomorrow's inflation figures ....
Turned out to be quite a day for asset managers! PMI +12%, IPX+9%, FSG +8%, LIO+7%, ASHM+6%
Good points. Mostly agree. Still a bit worried about the outflows though.
Many of your points apply to a few asset managers - and I think your -re-rating point is applicable to quite a few of them. If you're interested in some further analysis on the UK-listed asset management sector you may want to check out my post covering the recent Q3 updates
https://investingintheinvestors.substack.com/p/brutal-q3-for-uk-asset-managers
and the interview here on LSE
https://www.lse.co.uk/media/brutal-q3-for-london-listed-asset-managers-mixed-bag-for-wealth-managers-wczrcqwh0l209b9.html
Started: Lsimo, 14 Nov 2023 11:17
Last post: Lsimo, 14 Nov 2023 11:17
Let it stay lowish for as long as you like for reinvested massive dividends ……and some stratospheric compounding !
Started: Jimmyr_83, 5 Nov 2023 19:26
Last post: Jimmyr_83, 5 Nov 2023 19:26
I bought a significant stake throughout all of last week. Average just above 51p. The valuation is completely detached from fundamentals and this has now derated versus the listed peers by about 10% since Wednesday alone. Market clearly expects ongoing outflows as per industry trends but that’s in the price. Back to 60p fairly quickly I’d imagine.
Started: Dartron, 2 Nov 2023 12:54
Last post: Temple_of_Doom, 2 Nov 2023 15:41
Difficult to value these asset manager businesses where I like back of matchbox calculations so decided to look at AuM to Equity ratio … where PMI works out around 10% less than Jupiter that itself has been a basket case given its takeover in 2019 with legacy issues.
My reading is a hedge fund shorting having just sold 350,000 or so shares to MMs today to pass on to retailers.
To the question why shorts are not listed … some of these funds short in tandem across branches. Seen it before.
Oversold in my view topped up more today.
So the purchase looks like 50% cash and 50% shares. At circa £5M.
Looking back at the HY results to March, they have plenty of money for this:
Over the six months, the group generated £7.9 million of adjusted profit before tax for the year and had a closing cash position of £31.5 million. (H1 PBT was 2.4M ).
Dividend policy is circa 50% of adjusted PAT.
Premier Miton has announced it will buy boutique firm Tellworth Investments in a deal that will increase its assets under management by almost 6 per cent. Tellworth Investments was started by Paul Marriage and John Warren in 2017 and had £559mn in assets under management as of September 30. The initial consideration for Tellworth will be based on assets under management at completion. According to the announcement, this is expected to be £5.5mn - although it could vary between £3.5mn and £6mn depending on AUM at completion.
The initial consideration will be 25 per cent as cash and 75 per cent will be in Premier Miton shares. The initial consideration for Tellworth will be based on AuM at completion. At the current AuM this will be £5.5m but this can vary between £3.5m and £6m depending on AuM at completion. Initial consideration will be payable 75% to Paul Marriage and John Warren (the "Continuing Shareholders") (this 75% will be split 25% in cash and 75% in PMI shares) and 25% in cash to the Exiting Shareholder. The consideration shares issued to Continuing Shareholders will have selling restrictions, namely 25% must be held for one year and 75% must be held for two years (from the date of completion).
There will also be 25 per cent in cash to the exiting shareholder, who is BennBridge Hold Co.
Mike O’Shea, Premier Miton's chief executive, said the acquisition would give clients access to an “even broader range of UK equity investment solutions”. The proposed deal was announced on Wednesday (November 1) and is expected to complete early next year. The Tellworth Investments business is due to transition onto the Premier Miton platform in the second half of 2024. O’Shea said: "We continue to explore inorganic opportunities alongside our clear organic growth strategy, and are pleased to announce this new acquisition, which we believe is complementary to our existing business and further strengthens our longer-term growth plans. “Tellworth’s existing presence in the institutional market will further strengthen our distribution strategy as we look to grow our footprint in this market.”
Helme Harrison, CEO of Tellworth Investments, said the two firms have a “strong cultural fit”. She added: “Premier Miton recognises the value of both our brand and our longstanding expertise in uncovering mispriced opportunities within the under appreciated UK market.” Peel Hunt analysts said AUM diversification “appears positive” for Premier Minton and earnings accretion is “helpful” in a period of negative flows. The move was welcomed by Darius McDermott, managing director at FundCalibre, the fund ratings agency.
Started: NickRubens, 12 Sep 2023 10:12
Last post: barchid, 11 Oct 2023 19:30
Carpe
Thanks for that, but as you allude to, a less than ideal date selection...
"Premier Miton Emerging Markets Sustainable Fund" ... Still very small and launched at a bad time but my other Miton Funds are holding up well.
News does seem to leak, however, so 50p bottom maybe?
It is actually listed for Friday 13th.
Make of that date what you will....
On the news button above last week.
Thx, where did you see that ?
Started: Sisyphus, 31 May 2023 08:23
Last post: Dartron, 27 Jul 2023 12:16
I have bought in here, and also bought some ASTO, which is more speculative, but the recent large director buys give me some confidence that at least there wont be a raise over there. A good time to buy asset managers I think.
This will follow Jupiter in my view.
I'm back in. If this is the turning point for UK markets, PMI should very well from here
Well they have had a serious hit again today, despite being long & wrong I felt I had to buy some more at just under 72p.
Fortune favours the brave (I hope) !
Well, sadly I was right that it was indeed going lower. Must listen to my sage, rather than my impatient, side!
Going to watch and wait before perhaps taking a final small tranche here.
This is a planned LTH for me and fingers crossed good management discipline will see them return to better times at some point...but for now, IMO, this could go a lot lower still in the months ahead. So, no rush to add, in my opinion. GLA.
Started: barchid, 31 May 2023 13:26
Last post: LWHL, 1 Jun 2023 23:02
Pretty careless error by whoever writes these things. Luckily it did not (probably) have a material impact on the SP activity today. I retract my earlier comment now too, based on this correction.
So the DD sale was actually a buy, that’s more like it.
Abnormally high volume today, about 1% of the free float so far and it seems to be edging the SP up a little.
Where there's life there's hope...
Well, that CEO sale is not going to encourage me to buy more here. I know it is only a trifling amount, but all the more reason to find cash elsewhere, rather than a stock sale, if he needed additional funds, IMO.
Anyway, at least the RNS has not hit the SP today. Fingers crossed I do not get to make a decision as to whether to add more here at the price I had in mind. Less inclined to do so now. IMO, CEO should have bought at least 5% of his salary in the window of opportunity to do so. Hey ho.
The PMI interim gave a fair view of current investor sentiment and the BoD has never fallen into the fatal trap of overpromising and underdeivering. It's a seasoned crew with an excellent track record for prudence and good risk spread. It has huge capacity to cope with increased volumes as investor sentiment turns.....that is one of the reasons that makes the stock very vulnerable to M&A activity at this very low MCap. Either gaining traction as an independent or swallowed at a substantial premium, it's a good share for a patient investor wanting a divi with both recovery and takeover speculation in the mix. Solid but oversold.
Started: Scarfell, 31 May 2023 08:59
Last post: barchid, 31 May 2023 12:14
Scarfell
2 differing views, that is what makes a market.
I don't personally see much AUM withdrawn, most of the reduction is the fall in value of assets this period.
What I see, hopefully not through rose tinted spectacles, is a well thought of fund manager, most of whose senior people seemingly with a lot of skin in the game, good performance against their indeces in a cyclical market which it is quite feasible to think could be turning up soon and small enough in size to be gobbled up by a bigger player, & that is thrown in for nothing.
AUM well down and number of employees up - not a good look. Profit about the same as the CEO's remuneration - no wonder shares are down 8%. I'm not remotely tempted to top up and logic tells me to bail out.
Started: Sisyphus, 31 May 2023 08:42
Last post: Sisyphus, 31 May 2023 08:42
Position taking as at this level a 30-50% bid would still give huge scope for centralisation and streamlining costs.
Started: TheTrotsky, 17 May 2023 18:06
Last post: CarpeDiem1, 31 May 2023 07:37
Not a great report in my view. Halved profits. A cut in divi which remains at the top end of their dividend policy and from the tone of the report may be uncovered in future. Scope for further div cut going forward.
Some good points, the start of this year is better.
However, time to retrench, reduce overheads, hope for better economic climate next year.
Pretty much as expected...treading water with the capacity, resources and prudence to manage the status quo but quickly ready to respond to market change. Cash is £31m and over a quarter of current MCap. With AuM of £11bn, Premier is still well under sensible value level given the geared upside and probable predator interest by bigger fund managers. All in all a steady hand in choppy waters but Mr Market will soon be looking at gearing, adaptability and competence as market confidence returns. Horizon scanning pays bigger dividends for those who patiently wait rather than speculate on smoke and mirrors.
A cut in divi but a reasonably upbeat report from the board.
Question is, were the market expecting worse than this or better ?
We will know soon...
All the pessimism is already in the price at this level... Any 'significant' fall in AuM would have been RNS'd. Most asset managers are seeing an increase in cash outflows and PMI will I assume follow suit. The big swing will come when Mr Market realises that PMI will be one of the prime beneficiaries as confidence starts to return and Mr Market certainly looks to the future first. Things will start to swing north and hopefully the H1 outlook will provide guidance. PMI board are not given to overpromising and underdelivering. The current low MCap was indeed triggered by the Q1 cautious outlook. H1 horizon scanning should help reassure. Solid and seasoned team.
Sisyphus
I certainly hope that there are no unpleasant surprises on 31st in the rns, but the SP really has been inordinately weak.
Mr Market is not normally wrong but I do hope he is this time...