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Yesterday up from about £1.45 was / maybe the true value for OTB , so todays drop is back where it should be and maybe not such a good buy at £1.48p ish.
Once the ftse drops this could be back to £1.30 ish.
Jed I agree, I would not be surprised to see it back to
Jed I agree, I would not be surprised to see it back to
Jed I agree, I would not be surprised to see it back to 1320-130p but I don't have a crystal ball, the earnings are erratic and investors will be cautious, that's the downward force. The earnings are not stellar to justify a much higher valuation, I invite people egging on 200-250p to give a rationale.
@ Alessandro
I imagine that DB did their homework so if you can get a copy of the note, please post it.
Deutsche Bank starts On The Beach with 'buy' - price target 250 pence.
Very suspicious share price activity yesterday - if it was on results leak then someone got it wrong as today's results are 'in line'.
Mary, unfortunately brokers seem to be clueless most of the time. I can name countless shares of companies having broker ratings all over the shop. DB is no exception.
Mick-b its being played like a fiddle. First the suspicious activity you mention yesterday with the big rise immediately preceding results and then the fall today on results - which literally takes it virtually right back to where it was before.
Then somebody gets to buy en-masse and with the benefit of knowing all the numbers which actually if you read them aren't half bad imvho.
Somebody is making a tidy living out of buying low and selling high. Rinse repeat.
Onsolidground market manipulation is illegal.
Not sure I go along with the manipulation theory. There was a lot of hype building into yesterday's close an FOMO kicked in.
Today's results were quite good but nothing stunning and OTB has settled at what the market sees as fair value.
Me too.
Buy low sell high especially the sub 90p ones - merveilleux !
@Mary how can your average be 40p considering the share price has never been close to that figure? I assume you bought in the low and sold in the high, virtually created your average by dividing your initial invested sum by the number of shares finally held. How many trades did you make to achieve 40p, can you give me an example of your strategy using OTB as an investment case? 40 p is very low considering the recent trading range (my calculation is between 120 and 145), it would take 5 trades with a 20% profit for each trade to get down to 40p, in a relative short period of time. I don't know many people that can make 20% profit per year let alone repeatedly in just few months. If you can replicate the same strategy with 5 holdings you can make one million starting from a mere £5000!
Allessandro,
You’ve got it right today, and I got it badly wrong.
Well done.
@Alessandro
You assumption is right. Dodged a few od the bug falls and when all looked doomed added multiples near the lows. Lots of adds and trims later, that's where I am. My adds today have raised my average but when it turns again I hope to go sub zero.
Simple example
Buy 10000 @ £1 and sell 5000 @ 170p gives you a 30p average for 5000 shares.
Lots more trades and did not get there in one move but a significant holding now with a low average. One of my better performers.
Have a great evening.
Mx
Steve I wasn't right, you were not wrong. I believe it is not the short term price action to hold the answer. As far as I can tell the share price could be 100p or 200p tomorrow. It is matter of interpretation of the financial statement and confidence in the long term outlook for the company. OTB can still be a winner if it takes advantage of the current market and can get the upper hand over competitors. Hopefully we will both right when OTB can give solid figures over a number of terms.
@Mary
if you buy 10000 @ £1, sell 5000 @ 170p and you do not buy any more shares, your average would still be £1 per share. You would have an average of 74p if you use the full £8500 from the sale of your 5000 shares @ 170p to buy back in at £1 (if the shares drop that much after you sell!). I may be missing how the 30p figure is calculated.
???
£(10000-8500)=£1500
(10000-5000) 5000
£1500/5000 = 30p average cost per share.
Sell all 10000 @ 170, bank £7k hard profit then you have no shares, no averages but £ 7k more than you started with!
Mary your calculation is misleading. Top slicing doesn't average down.
Let's assume that after selling @170p and 'averaging down to 30p' the share price price actually crashes down to 30p. You would expect to have made a profit on the first sale and no loss on the second sale, hence making a net profit. In reality you would have made no profits at all. Your cash flow would be:
-£10,000 from your initial purchase
+£8,500 from your first sale (5,000 x 170p)
+ £1,500 from your second sale (5,000 x 30p)
Adding up all figures your will end up with no net profits, you started from £10,000 and ended with £10,000.
You can argue that if after the first sale @170p the share price falls less dramatically, to 60p. Would that make you a 2x bagger in any way? This is your cash flow again:
-£10,000 from your initial purchase
+£8,500 from your first sale (5,000 x 170p)
+ £3,000 from your second sale (5,000 x 60p)
This time adding up all figures your profit is £1,500 of hard money in your pocket. 15% of your initial sum.
The only way you can average down is by selling high and buying back in low. By doing so your average would not go down as dramatically as you would expect though. Making an X bagger on a share that actually doesn't rise manifold, but simply traded in and out is a mammoth task that hardly makes you a multi bagger.
Alejandro,
Trim and add has worked well for Mary, she’s taken it to the next level with multiple buys and sells trimming and adding again and again.
Mary calls it the snooker rack system.
Good luck with your capital gains tax returns.
Steve, the strategy will not make you as much as you may think.
To double your money need to buy and sell your FULL holding 4 times, each time buying back in at a 20% discount. Assume you have a stock that volatile you have to time it well to achieve such a feat.
If instead of buying and selling your full holding you top slice 50% of your holding and repeat in cycles it will take you 6-7 trades to double your money.
You must be able to time a very volatile stock multiple time without any setback. How many times we top slice too early and we are not able to back in cheap? How many times have we bought too early?
Alessandro
Gives me a headache thinking it thru
Upto 15 buys ALWAYS on dips, sell one or some on spikes
Aiming for 2% plus costs and each buy / sell seen as a separate entity with NO profit/loss taken out.
Mary is playing with millions, it works !