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1k diff in buys and sells down 5%.
Last week 14 k more buys up 0.48%.
We can't win here.
I agree with Kutzz here. Whilst it would be good to see Lanstead issue a TR1 it won't have much bearing on the long term. NB the only way to try and force a TR1 would be to keep emailing the FCA and ask them to investigate. Not much more the company can do, they have reminded Lanstead who seem to think they are playing by the rules.
Maybe Lanstead haven't sold (seriously doubt it) or perhaps they issue an order to their broker to sell x million shares over x number of weeks and when that order is complete then they will notify, while that order is open they don't notify even if they drop a % number in the interim until the order is closed, who knows. It seems to work for them though, we are likely not the first group complaining about this.
Regardless, need to look on the brightside, if there was no Lanstead deal last year there would likely have been no BCM deal. It seems BCM were not put off by Lanstead and they went ahead and signed. For BCM it was probably a relief to see the TopCo funded.
For those feeling frisky take this as an opportunity to top up at these incredible low prices. For the rest of us let's be patient and see what's coming. We have an AGM in exactly 2 months. If I was a betting chappie I'd suspect we see a Lanstead issued TR1 on or before the AGM. The timing also takes us to the end of Q2 so hopefully some additional decent news flow to showcase and talk about at the AGM.
One point to note we could also see a bit of left field news which could kick up the share price out of the blue, such as news on Senegal or another JV partner coming onboard for one or some of the Central licenses in Cameroon. If that happens the share price could motor and then everyone starts buying as it rises up then gets annoyed again when the SP falls back. So I would say if you are sitting on the fence and seriously thinking about buying now is a good time to consider it!! But then What do i know!!!
I don’t think Oriole intend on doing another subscription agreement. It helped them in a jam when the share price was 0.20 and they didn’t want to raise at penile rates.
The company is in a far better position than it was in August 2023. The fact they signed two $4m JV’s and a 7000m drill programme is underway.
IMM is also a completely different company , who knows what was happening at the time they took the agreement. The only thing Oriole has in common with them is that it used the same company, that has no real bearing on performance.
If the share price sustains a rise, the agreement is a great move. Similar to IMM , Oriole can generate more than the benchmark price. What we need is news and volume , which are hopefully on the way.
The more that Lanstead and negativity are brought up on the forum the less investment this will get.
You may as well post a keep clear sign which is the exact opposite of what we all want?
It is clear these sharing agreements do NOT benefit the company but work in favour of Lanstead, it is a fallacy to suggest this outfits aim is to drive value by share price appreciation, on the contrary in fact.
This is from the IMM bulletin board (below), it comes via a RNS last year - for whatever reason IMM decided to carry out numerous finance agreements with Lanstead from 2016 to current, out of the FIVE completed (or near completed agreements) only ONE has yielded more than the base case number the others have delivered SIGNIFICANTLY less.
IMM shareholders are showing equal distain to Lanstead the same as ORR investors are, basically this type of funding is of last resort IMO, the fact Lanstead (and other similar outfits) never promote their wares at investor events plus keeping their executives under radar is a clear red flag.
From IMM RNS dated 31 Aug 20323...
"The Sharing Agreement is similar in structure to those undertaken by the Company with Lanstead in February 2016, June 2019, March 2020, December 2021 and August 2022 respectively. The first three of these arrangements have completed their settlement periods. The February 2016 agreement yielded a net gain to ImmuPharma of approximately £0.6 million more than originally subscribed by Lanstead. The June 2019 and March 2020 agreements yielded approximately £0.9 million and £1.0 million less than originally subscribed by Lanstead respectively. The fourth arrangement runs to March 2024 and is currently yielding approximately £1.1 million less than the pro rata amount originally subscribed by Lanstead on cumulative settlements to date. The fifth arrangement runs to August 2024 and is currently yielding approximately £0.3 million less than the pro rata amount originally subscribed by Lanstead on cumulative settlements to date."
IMM bulletin board comment...
So that's five agreements in total, one of which yielded a positive result (+ £0.6m approx). Currently the other four - of which two are already complete - have yielded a cumulative LOSS of £3.3m versus the current share price. WHAT A TRIUMPH!
Another example of Lanstead double speak.
This is from the FAQ part of the website, they say....
'Lanstead is free to buy and sell shares just like any other shareholder and it is required to disclose movements of >1% as a significant disclosable shareholder'
Once again, this time using IMM as an example, you can see they sold down from 21.93% announced on 13th September to 17.99% announced on 19th December https://tinyurl.com/3mzyw2u6
The above example shows a near 4% move, if that was translated to ORR it would be circa 160m shares sold without declaring.
I have no idea how they can tell ORR they abide by TR1 rules, say they declare each 1% move on their website yet there are very clear anomalies to this in the market.
This smoke and mirror approach is not satisfactory, at the very least leaves existing and prospective shareholders confused.
I would hope that given all the speculation and apparent prodding by ORR we will get a TR1 from them soon enough, I still suspect they have sold far more shares than they would usually have done and are aware if they declare early it would assist the bull case.
Technically Lanstead don’t need to suppress the share price. They can sell a fixed amount of shares a month and cover the cost of the monthly payments.
Of course as a business, they want to generate profit but it isn’t in their interest to surpress the share price.
They have a plan no doubt to maximise profit but by holding shares they hedge against a rising share price.
Lanstead don’t have to sell but they do, to cover the costs of the monthly payments.
All in all, there is enough big news inbound to raise this to 1p or more. The drill results at bibemi could be really exceptional and then Mbe is following behind.
$8m invested from BCM into bibemi and Mbe.
Whilst it’s good to discuss Lanstead I feel this last two weeks everyone has been bogged down with this and forgotten the long term value.
Yes. It is a head wind and we could be higher but plenty of news catalysts. In August/September we’re at the half way point of the deal.
Plenty to be excited about; don’t lose sight of the long term with the short term fluctuations.
Enjoy your weekend.
I'm not sure anyone understands the Lanstead deal - and that includes Lanstead! I presume it's in their interest to suppress the SP by selling shares in order to keep their payments over 0.2533p as low as possible but what happens if they don't sell their shares? As I understand it, if the SP multibagged they receive no benefit and it could prove extremely expensive! Alternatively, what happens after they've sold all their shares long before the end of the agreement? Presumably the SP would've rocketed long before in anticipation? The next GGP with added rocket power? I dunno!
Have previous Lanstead deals been with dead ducks and suddenly, they've signed a deal with a swan? Very tempted to double my holding - who needs to own acres in Utah except the upside there is equally compelling.
When the company announced its info in Jan and February 2023 (yes last year) … it didn’t really spark much interest or relevance (certainly to me other than any short term spike and retrace) as soil sampling is/was 100 miles away from firming something up and ultimately monetising the asset.
The latest information from the RNS that I guess wasn’t specific enough for the market, however shows basically how important the signature payments are and having our partner alongside. I would say (early) second quarter this may throw up newsflow that WILL then have some benefit and share price movement and from an area that without the partner would have just been another semi irrelevant piece of data ( like happens with many an AIM junior miners ) that never normally get moved along to the next level and ultimately therefore not developed.
Keep the faith, let’s not let the TR1’s and other issues get in the way … I feel ORR will deliver and start tracking to a more reflective share price.
It’s nice to see a bounce off the 0.30.
This just needs volume and buyers.
Plenty of big news on the way. Mostly drill results at Bibemi.
Despite all the negativity around Lanstead. There is plenty to look forward to here.
Fair comment Lambinator.
No offence taken, a good rant is healthy every now and again!
I reckon so.
But at least our voices have been heard and acknowledged.
Sounds pretty logical that they are gaming it by putting in one massive order a quarter and only reporting once that's completed, as per the rules.
They wouldn't be in business long if they were doing something illegal so incredibly public. Clearly this is the loophole and it sounds like we have to accept it.
Well, if they weren't selling, would they not have just said so, rather than give that non committal response?
I have received a e-mail back from Oriole. Below is part of the message relevant for all.
“Earlier this month, we reminded Lanstead of these reporting requirement and brought the bulletin board comments (discussing FCA non-compliance) to their attention. They have confirmed that they are well aware of their obligations and that, since their first investment in 2007, they have always filed a TR-1 notification as and when one is required.
We will continue to monitor the situation closely.”
I have replied back basically saying it is Beyond comprehension. Lanstead have not sold less than 40,000,000 shares, for them not to trigger a holdings update since December.
But when they do, we’ll all see how devious these charlatans operate.
A chain is only as strong as its weakest link….
I'm a long term holder so I would also like to know the current situation with lanstead, however, I doubt they are doing anything wrong. I assume they are selling but if its one big order a tr1 is not due until that's complete.
Nothing ORR, Bob, FCA etc... can do as they are the rules.
We just have to wait, tough cookies I'm afraid.
Fact is you do not get nearly 2b shares traded, over half the issued capital, since 28th December if a major holder was not selling, we know who that major holder is.
The fact there has been no TR1 is not because they have not crossed a 1% threshold (they clearly have) is because IMO they do not want to show they have sold far more shares in short time than they usually would have done to bring the SP back from the mid .40p's range to current.
I concur with the dissenters that this information is particularly market sensitive and price sensitive, if Lanstead are now down to, lets say, 500m shares (from 1 billion) that would be extremely bullish for holders and prospective new investors as it would restrict their ability to 'control' the share price over the remaining 15 months of the deal.
The above is the reason a TR1 is so crucial and it should not be withheld any longer.
Kutzz I get that … if you are taking a longer term view, yeah you’d be mad to sell, but we sat between 0.10 and 0.14 for ages and a lot of people will be sat on ‘double bubble’ even after we have drifted back.
There are loads of traders on Aim who just buy noise, and sell into the profit. Outfits like Zak Mir’s crowd where he claims to know what’s going to happen just add to the ‘opaque’ behaviours of share prices. (On that note if you look at what he pumps, which tends to have just moved anyway, and make a note returning by “as soon as the end of next month” the outcomes don’t border any reality, they are jaw droppingly appalling). That alone will drag in a boatload of buys, out they all go … by then we are on to episode 76,934 where the whole process starts again. Nobody gives a **** what was in episode 76,931 and episode 76,932 but those people will have all exited and sway sentiment.
I have to admit (as an LTH) who’s been here 5/6 years
(?since it was around 0.30 the first time, before it went and six bagged to 1.90 the first time.. then back to 0.10) so even I have tried to sell a few when it runs out of steam like now.
For what it’s worth I bought two tranches at 29.99 this morning…
My point there are not just Lanstead’s death spiral funding dragging this around.
Hi Wonkey
This really does matter alot, not just for transparency on current updated holdings. But it forms a ‘fair & orderly’ market.
The rules are the rules. There is no grey area.
The reason why Oriole is culpable. Is it signed into the agreement with Lanstead. Therefore this falls under the CFO’s remit of responsibility. To ensure all parties conform to the law.
If Bob doesn’t sort this out, and we don’t get an updated TR1 from Lanstead before the AGM (24/6).
Then i will be voting ‘no confidence’ in him.
How can we as SH’s trust someone, to broker new deals that are in the best interests of the company.
Bob should have been on the ball months ago hounding Lanstead to pull their finger out!
Rant over (not aimed at you in all way)
Have added this morning, take advantage of the shenanigans to profit in due course.
Oriole is in an extremely good position, with a solid few years of exploration to come. I think naturally , share holders want to hope it’s Lanstead selling because it explains the share price falling.
Why would any PI’s sell at the moment? I’m not sure because most people are probably still underwater or around break even.
Lanstead selling would be the easy and obvious choice but we could be wrong.
Lambinator,
I share your frustration, but not your focus.
IF there is a breach happening here, it’s Lanstead, not Oriole.
It’s the shareholders responsibility to announce their TR1’s - the Company typically has no visibility on shareholdings (due to the nominee structures many investors use) and also no obligations to announce.
Lanstead can and will be selling I’m sure - that’s their model. But they can’t sell too much, too soon - if they did, they would have a massive exposure on any significant share price rise.
I’m not sure what volumes are trading daily, but Lanstead will just be adding a little liquidity to the stock, which probably isn’t a bad thing in the long run?
The main thing is the cash coming through to Oriole from Lanstead will continue to be positive if the sp stays at this level or above - which means the deal they did last year is looking more and more like a sensible solution to really bad markets.
I guess the balance of if it was a good or bad deal will only be clear once Lansteads contracted 2 year window is over. Until then the income is covering some costs and the BCM deal is paying the bills in Cameroon. What’s not to like?
I’d be more focused on what’s happening in their exploration projects than this distraction with Lanstead TR1’s…. When do we see results ????
DYOR and good luck all.
Tmd1987, that is interesting, it would explain quite a lot.
Fact remains that the team are working hard to prove up the resource on many fronts. I am reasonably comfortable with where we are and time will tell.
I can't find the actual rules at the moment but I'm pretty sure they only need to notify via tr1 once their order, which crosses a threshold, is complete. So if they put a massive sell order in which took a long time to compete, the tr1 is not due until the final amount.
This would explain how they could sell for weeks/months, cross multiple thresholds, and still abide by the rules.
Well Lanstead would say they abide by the rules, the reality is different, if you look at a like for like arrangement, namely ticker NNN
Lanstead were at 16.97% on 20th January 2023, see here...... https://tinyurl.com/yc6e3yub - passed through 3 x 1% positions and declared they were down to 13.99% three months later, see here .... https://tinyurl.com/5y4j2wjk
It is pretty clear there are discrepancies concerning the every 1% declaration threshold, so what happens next, are Lanstead really suggesting they have only sold 40m shares in ORR in 4 months - no way, the above example shows they do not declare at every 1%.
Their next TR1 will be VERY interesting !!
Thanks Dilby, Oriole are always good to respond.
I find it almost impossible to believe that Lanstead have sold less than 40m shares (1%) in 4 months.
Especially with all that good news and the fact we are now in Q2.
We shall see