Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Atm
New tweet..
https://x.com/OrioleResources/status/1776262941530046563
Gold is surging, ORR is right in the thick of it in Cameroon and Senegal, the value of these licences has shot up in value as will be the interest from prospective new JV partners.
The market value of Oriole is a mere £12m, no wonder buyers are coming in.
Gold @ $2320.
Adios 20’s next stop 50’s ….
We seem to be holding the line in the .3ss potentially bye bye to the .2s news to come in Cameroon this month!!
Interesting stuff Catbert. To get an idea of what we can expect I decided to have a quick look at one of the ‘example’ companies that Lanstead name on their FAQ page to see how they notified during that agreement - AFC Energy.
The original placing was for £2.2M and AFC received a total of £4.7M in payments, so worked out well for them. The share price dropped 26% to10p the day the deal was announced on 8 October 2014. Nine months later the share price hit a peak on 60.2p and when the deal ended in April 2016 the price was 14.82p. Anyway, TR1s / notifications as follows -
1) Initial notification of holdings (20/10/14): 23,100,000 shares, 8.058%
2) TR1 (7/4/15): 19,311,000 shares, 6.6888% (crossed 8 & 7%)
3) TR1 (7/10/15): 11,141,182 shares, 3.8447% (crossed 6, 5 & 4%)
4) TR1 (23/12/15): 9,031,193 shares, 2.9% (crossed 3%)
So, after the initial notification of holdings they notified a further 3 times during the 18 month agreement - often have already crossed numerous 1% thresholds. I’ve got no idea if this meets the applicable rules or not but I’d be surprised if Lanstead didn’t adhere to at least the minimum requirements.
Something I found quite interesting (other than that Roman Abramovich owned about 13% of the company at the time) was the sell down rate. The sell down rate between the second and third notification was about double the rate from the first (initial) to the second. That was also when the SP was the highest. The sell rate drops back a bit between the last two notifications.
I just glanced at IMM, the other AIM company mentioned. They seem to be on their second Lanstead deal which started around the same time as ours and also had their last notification on 28 December.
Nm
I can’t see that Lanstead would breach the rules either (although retribution or sanctions from any toothless regulator would also not be forthcoming, much as it would be nice if AIM was policed AT ALL).
The comparison here with elsewhere is no need for a raise due to structure of financing, genuine board with skin in the game, and the fact we have world class assets.
I thought this would have turned following January highs well before now, and have been trying to load more from 0.35/0.37 after it peaked, it was getting twitchy in the mid twenties.
For the third time however the style of the mm’s once again highlighted the upward momentum… they two or three times whizz the spread really wide like they did at 0.14 last time … going 0.14/0.20 … bring it back to one basis point … repeat three or four times over 4/5 days then set the thing off motoring. The trades and what’s visible don’t in any way justify what’s going on, but here we are again going 0.31/0338 after yesterday’s rise with an actual real sell price at almost 0.32.
If I could get my head round reading the Lanstead deal as clearly as some of you can, coupled with following the inertia of the price action, I might even be able to make some serious money here.
I got in at 0.30 the first time before it six bagged and retraced (andyes I retained too many) … but I genuinely think this may well do similar again this next 12 months.
@Catbert - Like I said in my post........
"If you do believe they [Lansteand] have sold more shares equivalent to more than 1% since the 28 Dec TR1 which would be a change of their remaining holdings since their last TR1 of 28 Dec then you should report this."
This is a moral obligation to the market in the spirit of transparency. No point people whining here that they think it may have happened and doing nothing. I have merely offered a means to report if people feel so strong , then report. If they don't then don't report.
I cannot see the benefit to Lanstead in breaking the rules.
If the price goes up, the value of their holding increases. Presumably they don't have to pay all of their upside out under the terms of the deal or do they?
Secondly why would they risk being allowed to conduct business in the UK in these sorts of deals by risking a sanction or some sort of reputational damage?
Thirdly, surely Oriole's NOMADs could put out an RNS if Lanstead was flouting the rules. They might be obliged to do so.
Fourth, why wouldn't the BOD make a statement as surely they value the perception of their own PIs.
To my mind Lanstead may not have broken the rules.
Companies listed on the AIM (Alternative Investment Market) are expected to adhere to various rules and regulations set by the London Stock Exchange. In specific circumstances, companies listed on AIM may be permitted to delay releasing critical information. Here are some scenarios where such delays may be allowed:
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The likely news flow over the coming months:
1. BCM results from 639 samples + 68 QAQC samples collected at Mbe - last update 26th Feb
2. At Senala, a renewal for a further three year term has been submitted with approval awaiting
3. The remaining 4 Eastern CLP licences - looking for project-level financing (including restructuring of Canadian Bank offer)
4. Two-year licence extension at Wapouzé and change of use to Limestone is still awaiting approval
5. Once new Wapouzé licence received, looking to secure an industrial minerals partner to develop the Wapouzé project through to exploitation
6. Engaging with parties on the lithium anomalism previously identified within the Ndom licence (also part of the Eastern CLP) and the adjacent Gamboukou licence
7. At the Faré prospect, Managem will not be completing any more work. The Options Agreement expires on 17 February 2024. Managem own 60% with the option to pay c.$2.3m for additional 10%. Oriole are looking at either JV with Managem or sale - I would estimate Oriole's 40% interest at Senala is worth c.$9.2m.
8. Legacy assets e.g. Turkey royalties.
Exciting times indeed.
Looking for one good RNS and bit of volume....will get that soon:)
HawaiifiveO you have obviously been in shares way longer than me and so it sounds like you are right on this.
Just looking forward to the exciting times with ORR in the coming months. Cheers.
Hi all,
Irrespective of our opinions on Lanstead. The rules are the rules. Everyone no matter who must adhere to them.
There is no ‘grey’ area and it’s annoying the FCA idly let some entities get away with murder.
When this RNS lands on their TR1 holding, i’m in the same camp as Hawaii. It’s going to be a whopper! Then we can all see how devious Landstead has been.
I’ll be e-mailing the FCA to ask them to investigate Landstead, as i do suspect rules have been broken and warrant action to be taken.
It is in all SH’s interests to report Lanstead to the FCA as it’s our money on the line.
Regards to all
Of course Lanstead have sold a significant number of shares, where has circa 1.7b of volume come from since their last declaration (end December) They would have only had to sell 47m shares to go below 20% crossing a threshold.
The reason investors want to know is because if they have oversold their holding it will mean they are less able to manipulate the SP moving forward - I strongly suspect this is the case and why they have not declared. I think the market is now telling you they are in a pickle and are probably powerless to 'control' the share price like previously.
I am sticking my neck out to suggest they have probably sold half of their position (circa 500m shares) in around 7 months, that means they have less ammunition over the remaining 16 months, as such strong volume could really take them to the cleaners.
The market sniffs blood, the share price is poised for a very strong move IMO.
0.30/34
atm
Without wanting to state the obvious, perhaps Lanstead have not issued a TR1 because they have not sold a notifiable amount. Maybe they too have faith in where this is going to go in terms of a massive increase in the SP.
Don't get me wrong, I also have been sceptical of the wisdom in signing up with Lanstead but as has already been said then things were pretty diabolical most of last year after our much revered Eileen invested significantly.
Anyway, Tim, Bob , Claire and Eileen seem to have this sorted.
GLALTH
@Wolfie because there are rules around transparency for reporting material changes within a company. So why should Lanstead be allowed to abuse this and be less transparent. Ultimately, I find when an organization doesn't follow the rules then they often have something to hide!
Also wouldn't you find it useful to know if Lanstead had gotten down to 15% or 10% of their holding in the company left. Or alternatively it would be also interesting to know if they were sitting at 19.99% suggesting that they hadn't really been selling since December 28.
L‘m also now fairly comfortable with the Lanstead deal, especially when reflecting on where we are now and where we were when it was arranged. Without making any judgement on how the company got there, the situation early last autumn was pretty grim. Funds dwindling despite Eileen’s lifeline, exploration grinding to a halt, director salary sacrifices, no sign of the JVs and project level funding that had provided some optimism in the spring… other than the Canadian investment bank circling overhead looking for a bargain. A conventional placing would likely have been at a terrible discount, and rumours were that the company had tried and failed to arrange one. Potential partners no doubt concerned about topco funding. So, a deal was done. Substantial dilution and a long term net seller (of course Lanstead could, like most of us, have become increasing upbeat about the ORR story and may hold some of their shares for a longer term). But the company survived, which it might not have done, and is a big step closer to unlocking potential value, which could be considerable. Good news was required to make the deal work and the good news flow has begun. The higher the share price goes the better the deal is for Oriole, Lanstead… and us. My opinion anyway.
Hunniford.
With respect, why are you concerned at how many shares Lanstead are or aren't selling. It won't change their obligations to make payments to Oriole monthly, based on the sp at that time.
If they choose to sell more or less each month they are taking a risk of being caught out. If they sell more than the agreement and the sp rises significantly, they will come unstuck.
Ultimately, good news will bring volume and that will raise the sp.
Many of us believe Lanstead has not been duly notifying the market of their material change of holdings. So if you want to report this to the FCA here is the link to report it under:
https://www.fca.org.uk/market-abuse-reporting-form
Also here is some text with info that could be used but feel free to use your own. If you do believe they have sold more shares equivalent to more than 1% change of their remaining holdings since the last TR1 of 28 Dec then you should report this.
--------------------------------
On 1st August 2023, Oriole Resources (ORR) announced through an RNS that they had entered into a Subscription and Share Agreement with Lanstead Capital Investors L.P. ("Lanstead"). This agreement involved a subscription for 930,000,000 new Ordinary Shares, referred to as the "Lanstead Subscription Shares," at an issue price of 0.19 pence each, aiming to raise £1,767,000, known as the "Lanstead Subscription." Additionally, Lanstead was issued 83,700,000 new Ordinary Shares. Immediately following the subscription's completion, Lanstead's stake in the company increased to 26.23%, representing 1,013,700,000 shares.
A TR1 notification was released on 19th December, indicating that Lanstead's ownership had decreased from 26.23% to 23.26%. Another TR1, issued on 28th December, showed a further decrease from 23.26% to 20.99%. Since these notifications, no additional TR1s have been issued to report any significant changes in Lanstead's holdings in ORR. Despite this, the daily share volumes often indicate an unusually high number of sales that does not correlate to news information flowing from the company, suggesting that Lanstead probably have sold additional shares without providing the required reporting of a significant change in ownership.
I suspect Lanstead of not adhering to the necessary transparency and reporting obligations. I urge the market abuse team to investigate Lanstead's conduct and remind them of their reporting obligations including the timing of when they should inform the market.
You just feel it is going to breakout and when it does !
Blue
*locked
I’m not worried about the Lanstead deal anymore and believe this could be a stroke of genius by the team. Remember they are looked in for another 18 months or so. If they’ve oversold their shares they could be exposed….
I’m confident the share price right now is similar to a coiled spring. Hardly any volume today and I don’t think the red tells the truth here of what’s really going on or about to…. If you believe load up! I certainly have been.
Tim recently reported further results anticipated early Q2, new tax ISA year about to start, Gold price going up, lots of news to come. What not to like!? Surely the market will wake up to this any moment.
GLA , come on Oriole!