We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
There not going to get zero return from fracking a live well or they shouldn't..
Hope so Vf. Possibly the Company's estimate of 75% is even on the cautious side. Atb.
Schlumberger have been in the oil and gas business for nearly 100 years. Now I'm sure they are not going into this blind folded and know exactly what they can produce.. Good results for them also means better portfolio..
Fracking is going to be our jackpot... ;-)
Hi Jack. I have been reasobably optimistic for some time, otherwise I wouldn't have reinvested a year ago. However that optimism is tempered by the knowledge that everything is dependent on the refrac. Yes a lot of research had gone into it and we have been told they think it has a 75% chance of success. Which is great and what we all hope for. It does however mean there is a one in four chance of failure. Not that likely but not impossible. Where has Roland said anything about a new low pressure system? He said the operators were addressing the problems with the current system which were hollding the rates down. It has accommodated much higher rates in the past, so it shouldn't be that difficult, you'd think.
Even with the current high gas prices, the best flow rates they can hope for, pre refrac, will still be loss making. That would still be the case even with the 0.5 to 1.0 mmscfd they said they were hoping for on production restart. These sort of rates make a welcome contribution to reducing the cash burn but are not enough for a commercial venture. If they were, we can be certain the company would be stressing thr fact that whatever happens the Cambay project will be profitable. They are hoping for 2 mmscfd from a successful refrac and 3 to 5 mmscfd from the new wells if they go ahead. The upper end of that would be a jackpot for the company and us. Here's to a great outcome. Not too long to wait now. Atb.
It might be buys don't overthink it. My 10m buys at 16.4 all show as sells.
Hi Espenviking
If no TR-1 comes in the next week then I think we have to look at other possibilities, such as a group of shorters or day traders such as the telegraph group. If this is the case will they have the contacts to borrow shares or are they going to have to buy shares to cover their positions in the very near future and will the market makers let them without extracting a good profit by taking the price up?
It seems that the market is yet to be convinced by this. Similarly, the current sp doesn't reflect a 75% chance of success of the refrac or it takes a different view of what constitutes success. Given that I bought my initial 2 million at .35p, I'll be very happy to break even at some point. My previous target of .40 for 2022 was widely panned as de-ramping, makes you smile.
HI Gordon
Well I'm surprised you becoming optimistic. The reason I don't think this is a do or die situation is - we have the gas ( plenty of it) we know the refrac situation and a lot of research and planning has gone into this. Roland has already alluded to plan B which is a new low pressure system and we will still need to drill a number of new wells for a low pressure system remember Roland and is team have already started co mingling gases with different pressures. The high cost of gas is going to be with us for a number of year's which is going to make virtually any gas delivery system highly profitable.
Yes, and no TR-1 to notify of any threshold crossings. Could still come in coming days however I suppose (or maybe won’t)
Callum. Interesting. Yes, Possible. A forced seller and nothing to do with Oilex's situation. Atb.
Gordon ,
Maybe it was a someone meeting a margin call elsewhere given the market turmoil .
Who knows ?
Jack, I am afraid you are incorrect. Although the refrac does have a good chance of success (75%), it is pretty much a do or die situation. The current flow rates, and even a fair bit higher, are simply not commercial. Previously 77h was initially close to being commercial but the rates declined massively, fairly quickly. You say we have two new wells to look forward to. The whole purpose of the refrac is to prove the viability of those wells and attract a jv partner. If the refrac is not successful, or it at least gives strong indications that adjustments can be made to make it successful, it is unlikely that those wells will be drilled. Of course, there can be degrees of success and only Oilex and their potential jv's know how much improvement will be needed to make it viable.
None of this is talking it down. I am reasonably optimistic that all will be well but nothing is certain. I do find the current big sell off strange. Nothing had changed. The refrac is on schedule and is no less or more likely to succeed than it was months ago. Tempted to buy some more. Atb. Gla.
Yes, would seem so. We all got different objectives I guess, some already invested, some who are looking for lower entry point. Bottom line is that nothing hasn’t changed re the refrac to my knowledge. In track, still with a cos of above 75%. Works for me. Atb
we seem to have people on the board trying to talk the share down today. The fact is we have plenty of gas. We have the worlds leading experts in charge of the refrac and an alternative in the form of a new low pressure system if necessary and two drills to look forward to. One thing is true we have people working on the short side trying to depress and scare shareholders.
Simply owning an asset, gas field, copper mine, gold mine etc, is not the same as producing and selling that commodity in sufficient quantities to be profitable. This share seems to be for traders, whether they identify as that or not. I notice on Twitter that Quint, who was extolling the virtues of long term holding of Oilex, is now claiming to be trading it. I can only surmise that either he has realised that his predictions were way off the mark or he is trying to give the impression that he is making money when in fact he and those who followed his advice are underwater.
If the refrac is unsuccessful then a lot of holders in here will get battered. That's not FUD Jack - just brass tax. But if you believe in Roland and his track record then I would say you have less to worry about.
It is not correct to say its a do or die situation. If we are successful with refrac then we feed into high pressure pipeline if not then the two new wells planned one later this year and one next year will feed into a new low pressure system either way one thing we know we have plenty of GAS which is a really big plus.
Market Cap is now nearly 30 million AUD, according to Google. That is what endless dilution does to a stock, without any delivery. Refrac is a pretty much do-or-die situation for Oilex.
What clearly isn't priced in at present is a positive outcome from a refrac. Simply having one isn't big news unless it produces something tangible. As for ccs, people are looking to make money before 2026 or whenever any revenue might flow in. I don't think the sp is unreasonable given the current circumstances.
https://twitter.com/Share_Talk/status/1538600196707340289?s=20&t=mbPIkBxRuLdlv7P-S362cQ
What can we expect short-term, drill work over rig (June) re-fraccing of the Cambay 77H well is scheduled for July 2022 (with such re-fraccing now fully funded). The company said they are now fully funded for the July re-frac of C-77H and we also look forward to increasing daily production rates. Plus CCS application news is expected in June/July 2022.
Look at the current share price of 0.16p and it looks like none of the above has been priced in, once the news starts to be announced, l expect to see an upturn in investors' interest with numerous updates expected over the next couple of months.
https://www.share-talk.com/share-talk-weekly-energy-sector-news-round-up-sunday-19th-june-2022/
Hard to believe anyone who took part in the placing would sell at 0.15. Gla.
Yeah strange, could be the last of the over hang placing, the volume has been very poor over the last 6 weeks.
Agree Gordon
Fair enough Espen. Still seems a very surprising number of sells at this time. Atb.
Gordon, re the greys. It seems if the orders are so big they (for some reason) aren’t “posted” straight away they always (I believe) come up grey. Not sure why it is..