The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
.. Big Jock for your posts. I'm a simple bloke, invest my hard earnt and appreciate your posts.
I think most investors know that ODX have the contracts to supply the government, and will gain further contracts to supply their independent LFT to whoever, but the delays ( is it a delay, only in mid April), news blackout has caused a void which has thrown up uncertainty and given many carte blanche to say whatever they wish. The lack of news means it is really hard to defend the company by the loyal supporters, which makes more investors nervous.
If you go by the RNSs, read Big Jocks communications with both eyes open, you will see that very little if anything that is stated by Big Jock , isn't already written in an RNS. If you agree,and re read RNS's and BJs posts then its as clear as it can be to me that ODX will succeed, use their full capacity and will consider further expanding once the 200 m production is settled.
IMO from todays SP a doubling in share price between now and then is pretty much expected, after that there should be a great deal more. IMO everything will fall into place over the next two weeks, and probably be a three buses in a row scenario.
Great summary Vascular.
Thanks Bluekipper12,
I'm of an age to remember buying shares and having to wait till the evening standard was printed later that same day to get the SP, yes antiquated BUT it was simple, and you did not have online BBs, with peeps giving out all sorts of mis information and screwing with your head. You relied on the RNS, the quality of the board, contact with the company and your own instincts. I imagine even fever tree ( everyone quotes a success story these days) had a loyal following of peeps who did nothing but belittle the company's performance.
No one really knows whats going on behind the scenes . There is to many clues to know it is coming sooner or later I ignor a lot of what is written on here as im happy to wait .. 12 months now Good luck all
Maninpink.
Behind the scenes Omega are still recruiting!
https://www.jobsitejobs.co.uk/company/53697/omega-diagnostics-ltd/
Look like quality control employees.
Positive news flow is around the corner anytime, we’ve had positive news from CK in the covid fight since last march hence the SP already multibagging from single digit to triple digit, (soon be back in triple digits!)we’ve been lining all our ducks in a row, increase in machinery, increase in staff, contract with DHSC....them giving us machinery ready for the upcoming covid wartime manufacturing of homegrown gold standard LFTs to help open up the economy-
If you can’t add up all the dots with announcements & Q&As already out there to see that this is a clear triple digit SP then your not seeing through all the de ramping nonsensical claptrap. How clearer do you want it....
CK - Transformational year for ODX!!
Government cant have no more lockdowns...hence largest vaccine rollout in history, with the largest testing programme only just in its infancy as we’ve been preparing for this summer for a year now...THE TIME HAS COME .. THE COUNTRY HAS BEEN IDLING ALONG.. It needs help going through the gears to be cruising down the motorway in 6th gear again... TO BUSINESS AS USUAL EVERYTHING FULL CAPACITY ....LIFE BACK TO NORMAL. I’d say for this to happen we are going to be having to get used to proof of LFT results or many years to come for this to happen.
ODX are at the centre of this in the UK....Would not surprise me to see a £1billion market cap incoming
Bedhead great post, the green boxes won’t like that and Colin answered many questions(sharebuyers) with positive answers a few days ago.
Ps bigjock keep up the good work
@Bedhead: Totally agree if you had invested exactly a year ago (or a little before) you would have multi-bagged on the back of the UK-RTC news and the promise of increasing revenue due to our position in the consortium and the opportunity it afforded us, but if you consider the growth from getting in just two weeks later (the end of April 2020) the return would be 30%, fantastic some would say, but how much of that return is now built on the fear of missing out from holders that have heard it all before from a company that simply comes up short time and time again?
Vascular, good post.
Computer909, I am struggling to understand why Omega have come up short, time and time again? Its more or less 12 months since Covid hit, they had no postion to manufacture, no machines, no staff to deal with the demand, no nothing. So in 12 months they have gone from zero to where we are today. If this was going on for years like a lot of other companies, granted, I get your point, but its 12 months.
From a pure business point of view that is pretty dam good, considering we think/been told there are big contract (s) coming in. You can argue all day long about communication, but 12 months to set all of this up, recruiting, new building, new machines, new suppliers, contract negotiations etc etc...I think they have done pretty well.
We are in the absolute infancy of testing.
If we are no longer using lockdown as an option in the future, it’s going to be a necessity to be tested frequently if you want to live as normal a life as possible to be able to attend events back to capacity or travel as usual to keep your freedom of movement you will be required to prove evidence you don’t have covid, that is a fact.
With the added worry of the vaccines maybe not having as good an affect stopping the spread & new variants & mutations continuing the spread if we were to have mini lockdowns to control new upcoming waves, testing will be continuous for many many years. I can see a stockpile of LFTs needed. I think there’s a possibility we will have to double or maybe triple capacity of manufacturing going forward next year. Would not surprise me if we here these sought of announcements late summer & extended contracts with the dhsc on top of our initial £374m for next year.
Once ODX get through this period, the market will focus on the future, at what an utter transformation of revenues ODX have managed to achieve. Then there is all the other news form other products to look forward too, and new markets for its own branded LFT....plus a possible expansion in production of LFTs by 25%, 50% , who knows.
Its going to be a good summer this summer in ODX.
If Bigjock36’s communications with Colin King are fictitious, then surely ODX/Walbrook would not remain silent?
https://twitter.com/sharebuyers/status/1383725359674261507?s=19
@Bushmaster: A reported loss of £2.3m in the year of a pandemic by world leading diagnostics company in the middle of a pandemic when like companies have increased their revenue by multiples, £11m cash injection in order to exploit Covid opportunities nearly a year ago, zero contracts in place to actually manufacture anything.
Abc-19 estimated of 200,000 tests a week, total sales 175k
Elisa estimated o 46,000 tests a day, next to nothing sold
Visitect Antibody test, no mention of anything and they cant even supply a single distributor contact details
I’ll allow them a pause for Cd4 and food tolerance due to the pandemic
4 months for Tech transfer, we wait to hear regards the interested parties after launch, whenever that is actually achieved
When have we actually not come up short?
Computer909 - Its hard to argue with the loss of the face of it, it is a loss. What I would say is they have done zero business, is that not down to getting to this point we are today, with everything that has gone on before. For me that is the logical answer. If they had LFTs as Innova had them, then we would be in a different ball. That fact is they didn't, from what I can see no-one in the UK was set up.
The companies you mention, are they in the same industry?
Do you not think the ABC/Antigen was always going to come into play once the vaccine had been given?
Elisa, I take your point.
TT, that has taken a lot longer, why I have no idea. I also think CK is now a lot more cautious in what he states, due to what he said back in Nov/Dec, pushed by CK the TT would be done early on in the new year. I think he has learnt from that, best say nothing until its done. Its been a big stick used by many to hit the company with, which has effected the SP, I don't think anyone can argue with that.
Apart from the TT, Elisa, a few others come to mind, I can't see how this has come up short. I can see the frustration, but as I said on the earlier post, a lot has taken place in 12 months. We either believe in what CK says, ie: contracts, production at 2 mil a week or not, that is the botton line.
We also don't know what stock has been manufactured, what tests and how much they are sitting on in stock, if any. Depending on what you believe and read on various boards etc, its not a lot, or close to 10 million - If this is the case, would it been better to of sold what is (if) being produced and let us shareholders know, maybe, would the SP be in a better postion, no idea.
I don't know what the CK business model/plan is that has got them to where they are today, but we either trust them or we sell out, its one or the other until the RNS's drop.
Computer909 is currengly barred from my eyes. Does he still have an empty glass or is anything possitive being said. Spare me the low level details :-)
@Bushmaster
Abingdon Health : Set of half-year numbers showed revenues rising almost fivefold
SourceBio International: More than doubling of annual revenues to £50.7m
EKF Diagnostics’ (EKF) full-year revenues rose almost a half to £65.3m.
The ABc-19 test was always going to run into problems when the AZ vaccine was able to be manufactured for less than the antibody test that was supposed to accompany it, without MHRA approval for home use its use in the vaccine rollout would push a greater workload onto the nhs staff and delays to the process, we hope now for further use in a surveillance roll, but that is likely to be a very much smaller statistical based use
With regards believing CK,is that his statement with regards to delivering 2m tests a week in April, or the usual statement regarding ramping up capacity but delivering nothing, as we don't have test to produce yet.
You surely have to reflect on their updates through the last 12months and wonder why we are not at an all time high with regards the SP, and have we heard the same narrative before?
@Sledgey121: barred from your eyes, but obviously on your mind, enjoy your green fields
Well there taking on extra staff ,so id assume that is because the manufacturing more.
Its a good price as it stands and should be around the 100p + mark in next few weeks
Computer909 the loss was due to the impairment charge of £8.73m which related to stopping the ongoing development of the allergy range:-
"The decision to stop the development of further allergens has not been taken lightly but we recognise we can achieve better returns from directing our development efforts in other areas and we look forward to providing further updates as the opportunities we have in front of us deliver on their undoubted potential."
The company has been gearing up to hit 2m per week and April is now upon us. This has been months in the making to hit this pinch point for the Company. It has to be agreed that the ability for Omega to change their business model in such a quick timeframe has been nothing short of exceptional.
The CD4 demand is aligned to the Finncap note which are orders from Pepfar etc coming in q2 for low/middle income countries - This will be another string to the bow of Omega with c65% margins.
Simon Douglas has been appointed of recent to help build the business as of February:-
"I am delighted to be joining Omega at such an exciting time in their development and growth. I look forward to contributing to the continued growth of their core businesses in infectious disease with their lateral flow CD4 and Covid products, together with their Food Intolerance business, a market leader in this sector, both of which have an exciting future."
As stated in the Q&A - Colin has been speaking to DHSC for a considerable number of months and no doubt, he has based his recruitment drive to tie in with the information received from these meetings (potential orders etc etc). Also his extensive research of supply/demand within the UK and beyond.
We will be in the fortunate position this month of having the ability to scale our antibody/antigen testing to suit the demand required over the next few months/years and please remember, the UK Government want a UK supply chain (Which Omega are at the heart of).
Omega have carried out all the hard work, won the contract, scaled up the staff/capability and now await the Government finalising the test which will be used.
To me, that looks quite an impressive position to be in and with Antigen/Antibody testing both being pivotal to opening up the Economy - we are in an extremely strong position as investors to enjoy the plethora of news which will unfold.
For a company to comfortably confirm that NO PLACING will happen and paying the wage bill of 250 staff (confirmed in March), it shows the confidence they have for the business going forward.
A final point I would like to make relates to Innova, could you Imagine if the Government were to bypass UK companies going forward and continue to order from them? This will not happen, once everything is in place, UK companies will be utilised (unfortunately, Innova are the only company currently with self test approval from MHRA and with the govt offering tests at home, this will be the likely reason). This will
Computer909 - Not sure you can compare SourceBio to Omega, their turnover before this was a lot higher as well as their SP. EFK I haven't looked for a while, that turnover, is that from 19/20? I wasn't aware 20/21 full year revs where out yet. Do you know their gross profit % and net on their balance sheet?
If you are right on the ABC test, not sure where that puts them. "we hope now for further use in a surveillance roll, but that is likely to be a very much smaller statistical based use" Are you saying this will not be rolled out to know when a individual will need to either have a booster or a new vac due to new variants?
We don't know what test, but maybe CK does already, if not, then what have they been manufacturing, either something or nothing - Omega have stated in an RNS/tweets that they will be able to, or will be manufacturing 2 million per week, whether this is end of April or the 1/2nd week in May is unclear. But at the moment, the fact is this what the company has stated.
The SP I agree, seems to me its being traded and with no II's on board its been up and down more times than a seesaw in the last few months. I think its clear the market needs to know what the initial contract (s) are for a re-rate. Not sure on the narrative comment, park the TT, its been pretty consistent in terms of what is going on, numbers expected to manufacture etc since Jan. I also think many LTH's from back in April/May last year are more than happy, hard to moan about the rise up till Nov last year. Bear in mind we got hit with everyone else on the first Vaccine news, that did no favours to the SP which was in sicking around the 90's.
I am hoping once we get contract RNS's, II's will come in, a few TR1's will settle the SP down and give some confidence to nervous PI's.
I'm of the opinion that Antibody tests are going to start gaining increasing traction worldwide going forwards especially as we move towards "do you need an annual booster" "have you had the virus" "have you any antibodies" lets test to see where you stand. Massive potential imo.
With massive growth potential in this area alone frankly it doesn't really matter whether ODX manufacture Antibody Tests all day long or Antigen Tests, just as long as they can manufacture per se and get volumes up to full capacity.
Bloody frustrating that despite a cracking £ 374m potential order and extra equipment lined up to go full pelt at production still awaiting an Antigen Test. It will come. I have a bias towards Novacyt as many know and I'm hoping that IF ODX don't get an approved test to start manufacturing anytime soon that Novacyt R&D release one for ODX to manufacture. Something needs to give here for sure. It's currently farcical not to be manufacturing whilst the government chuck £2.8bn at the chinese on low quality tests.
Anyhow as i say, Antigen Test or no Antigen test i'm convinced Antibody Tests longer term will be big in their own right,
Good luck to you all
Pork's
@BigJock36: The impairment charge you mention was accounted for in the accounts for year ending April 2020,
https://www.omegadiagnostics.com/Portals/0/RNS%20Results%20FY20%20Final.pdf, The £2.3M loss we are debating was from the latest trading update so covers the year to April 2021
"A final point I would like to make relates to Innova, could you Imagine if the Government were to bypass UK companies going forward and continue to order from them?"
How does this statement get changed if Innova build a factory in the Uk employing hundreds of staff, as they have stated they are looking to do?
"To me, that looks quite an impressive position to be in",
If/when we get a statement of Tech Transfer completion and some actual supply contracts, then that would start to look impressive, at the moment we are just giving free warehouse space to the Government equipment, if we don't get that in April then we just simply go through the same empty promise and no delivery we have seen for a year, remember "This April we will deliver 2M tests per week"
@Bushmaster: the Revenue details were taken from article posted by @Junior2020 earlier in the week, https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2021/04/14/testing-demand-buoyed-by-lockdown-easing/
With regards to the ABC-19 test, the government have already shown a preference for the Fortress Antibody test, they have already stated that the task to determine when the booster is needed will be a statistical exercise rather than full scale antibody testing for the whole population.
a good well reasoned post Porky
the only way you could spoil it is to say you read the Guardian :D