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I hope you are right SJN1.I’m inclined to agree about the bottom being reached but regarding a ‘breakout’ I’m not so sure we’ll see anything that dramatic.In any case, there’s nothing immediate to breakout from.The green ? trend here https://invst.ly/157sxq is about the best I envisage, whilst a prolonged crawl horizontally in the 350-380 region until it meets the red down trend seems more likely to me. Much will depend on the HY results - they could be ‘stunning’ of course. GLA
Here is a simple sp comparison between OCDO and Autostore, the robotics rival against which OCDO won their patent litigation last year. This is a rebased comparison of their sp’s which assumes they were broadly equivalent in performance up to the end of last year: https://invst.ly/157kzj (the price scale gives OCDO's values).
What are your thoughts about this comparison? Autostore, which has no retail business as far as I’m aware, is now at about half its 2022 peak stock value and has declined by 25% in value since last December. OCDO, meanwhile, is down by approximately 50% this year. Neither are doing brilliantly but one is certainly looking more solid than the other. Is OCDO's lacklustre performance due entirely to difficulties with the retail side of the business?
The forced sellers who left on the ftse100 exit have gone.
Stumpy many thanks for you reply, it’s really helpful, I’ve got in Ocado near the bottom and planning hold for a now
Daniel, firstly you have to wonder how accurate the buy vs sell allocations have been. But if you assume that the data is largely correctly allocated, then the idea that there are more sells than buys might fit with the MM's looking for volume to the upside on the SP. In that case, as they (their algorithms) move the bid and offer to the upside searching for volume, the the transactions still occur within the spread. If the spread is rising, then even if there appear to be more sells than buys the price is still being walked up. This might work, if those who believe they have bought at a poor entry and are hoping for a lower entry in the future are selling when the price hits or exceeds their entry; this is common with PI's/traders with low conviction). Also, as the price gets walked up to shake out the low conviction holders (MM's looking for volume; not a conspiracy) others on the sidelines start to wonder things along the lines of 'Is the bottom in (FOMO)" or "Is this the start of a short squeeze" etc. But as you suggest there is a large disparity between buys and sells which suggests to me that there is a lot of uncertainty about where this is going.
Well, volume crept up over the day, but we need a close above 363.5 for todays price action to be bullish for me and even then it could be considered marginal. A close above 366.5 might bring in the possibility of a move to and perhaps beyond 380.5. Buying seems to have calmed down for now though.
Just wondering how come more sale than buys and the share price going up?🙄
And there’s the 365 top line I mentioned yesterday 😇
Good work. Slow patch for me at the moment. Wondering whether I should have 'gone away in May' etc.
You said something about the spread. I didn't know if you meant the bid offer spread as that seemed pretty low
It's the quiet ones you have to watch. Lucky to get 10 posts a week on their BB
Blimey, that's a good return. What was my issue wih it Sangi? Was it volume/liquidity? Anyway, whatever, I'm glad you did well on it.
Pity you turned down my GROW recommendation a few weeks back Stupmy. Was around 275p then and now around 400p
Timing's a bit weird too, normally the markets go quiet (not always) over lunch as serious traders are out eating/schmoozing/sniffing coke etc. Be interesting to see what happens as the US opens. I guess that'll be before they'll powered their noses so might give us a more measured view of 'what'sup'.
Will we see shorts reducing on Tuesday? SP popping up. Although from the data on my charts at least, the volume is not particularly high even if you look boyo's short term periods (15min). What's your take boyo on the volume
Thanks, makes sense then, just thought it was an odd movement. But here to hoping it's positive going forward, seems pushing below 340ish is looking unlikely or at least the support looks solid!
"I thought you had to report short positions when you loaned the shares with the intention of short selling as opposed to when you completed the sale."
You are right with that point (but borrowed rather than loaned), but they don't then just offload them on the market after borrowing them. No point using all your ammunition quickly, they will be drip fed in at opportune price points. Remember that shorts selling shares still need someone else to buy them at prices they find attractive, takes that money out of the market, then drip in down to the next level. There are other ways of working it but large offloads are not normal.
"It’s not Ahl offloading, that’s not how shorts work and their 0.01% increase yesterday is only 83k shares."
My bad, I thought you had to report short positions when you loaned the shares with the intention of short selling as opposed to when you completed the sale.
Looks like another OTC Insti transfer, from the stock exchange trade list:
14:54:16 345.70 517,083 £1,787,555.93
14:55:07 345.70 517,083 £1,787,555.93
Again done at a price below the spread at that time, market is well familiar with this transfer practice hence why no net reaction. In line with the others mentioned and certainly likely due to FTSE rebalancing.
Many of the funds that need to change their holdings are run within the same management 'stables' or where agreements are in place between institutions. That allows them to easily transfer stock OTC and then report it after, which helps keep a lid on volatility.
It’s not Ahl offloading, that’s not how shorts work and their 0.01% increase yesterday is only 83k shares.
Yes - two roughly 'matching' 550k share volumes (sell followed by buy) traded around 2.50pm according to this (5' chart): https://invst.ly/1570fk with virtually no effect on the ongoing market price.
Very briefly dropped to 345 but instantly bounced to 350 around midday, looked like a large trade maybe AHL offloading the 0.01% the increased yesterday to no avail?
Volume was back to normal today, 3.27m overall and a 706k UT.
Sp up 2.2p to 351 and out from under the red trend that was pushing it down towards 340: https://invst.ly/156yz3
340 hasn’t been tested in three weeks . Looking steady.
OK HKK - I get where you are coming from. I actually avoid trying to make over-confident predictions with charts because I don’t like hype and, for me, they are primarily indicative rather than predictive. I also don't feel they are currently providing strong signals either up or down. The sp has clearly been at a potential 'bottom' for a couple of months and seems to be on the boundary between recovery and an unwelcome drop lower. So, like all financial decisions, I feel it’s best considered as dispassionately as possible. ATB.
Actually on this chart you did you did kinda show what I was on about lol https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_544fd49f3a377ed5b4dcd76f0b4da328.png
Boyobach cool - I trade them to & your charts are great. All I was trying to say is there is always an upward channel should the share move in the other direction based on news/events etc. I don't have the ability to post mine, but if you look at the likes of BB Hers etc Zac always shows the averages with the top & bottom of channel vs just the downside/upside. Yes its on a downward trend clearly but there is always a line should a reversal kick in. Anyways GL to you - we all make our own decisions & appreciate your posts. No BB poster effects anything I do.
HKK: I currently hold OCDO shares for the long term but do trade them as necessary (as all investors should) to optimise their book cost. When I post here I always endeavour to show any relevant trends, whether rising or falling, that I find.
There are no significant upward trends on my current daily chart because the sp has essentially fallen to near the historic low of 340 for the last couple of months. If you can see an existing rising trend that I've missed on this chart of 2024 then please tell me where it is and I'll make a correction: https://invst.ly/156r9y