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" One thing is under increasing threat as companies look for steadier ground: the 15-minute guarantee. Gorillas and Jokr are scaling back blanket assurances of ultrafast service and are adding estimates of how long orders will take"
The whole thing was some mad dash for market share offering big discounts and making big losses
Now uktra-fast with no guarantee of "ultra-fast" as safety takes over
As I said the ultra fast model doesn't work, however you try to twist it, the profit isn't there.
It works for takeaway, because its added value and consumable straight away, but stretching it into grocery delivery is one step to far.
That's your view chilting. There are other very large investment banks who feel the opposite though. JPMorgan is one, another is Berenberg, see article below:
https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2021/08/27/tesco-sainsburys-and-ms-to-lose-up-to-4-of-sales-to-ultra-fast-delivery-firms-if-they-do-nothing/
The ultra delivery market is too crowded, some will fail. Those who emerge stronger though will be very lean competitors to the existing grocery retail trade.
2022 has been brutal for online grocery retailers and most growth shares. Most shares have dropped greatly. Many companies, like gorillas, in the face of such conditions have chosen to change focus on profit by cutting losses. Uber has recently also followed this path. Ocado currently is incurring higher losses, its shares have tumbled but is still maintaining its focus on product development, building out its network. There's a chance though that Ocado will similarly change focus if its shares drop further and market conditions become harsher.
Ultra delivery grocery in major city centres is a lucrative market. More wealthy, tech savvy customers who are more likely to order high margin luxury goods. It's a market major grocers need to be a strong player in.
More wealthy, tech savvy customers who are more likely to order high margin luxury goods. It's a market major grocers need to be a strong player in.
OMG - so what are these "high margin luxury goods " that are going to a massive threat to the £20 billion grocery sector then ?..and what insurance are the e-bike riders going to have to pay carrying them around ?
.. picking up a bottle of whiskey from Tesco or delivering a ready made meal to an Airbnb is merely providing delivery options .... an added service to the "same day delivery" options ....you merely pay more for the service
* £200 billion
The current large grocers risk losing valuable market share if they do not compete in the ultra fast delivery market -
https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2021/08/27/tesco-sainsburys-and-ms-to-lose-up-to-4-of-sales-to-ultra-fast-delivery-firms-if-they-do-nothing/
valueplay
good luck..you have certainly been taken in by the Church of certain Analyst Opinion ..
good luck
I think we have debated the subject ....
valueplay
with Ocado you appear to gave gone from Gamekeeper to Poacher .... despite knowing of all the issues you now post about whilst such a positive gamekeeper .... I guess when you are "Very interested in capitalising on another good entry point to the shares " it is not unusual to suddenly turn 180 degrees on a view point
From " More and more grocers will feel they want to be the Ocado Solutions partner rather than let a competitor use it. " to now believing that grocers suddenly think twice about investing in it ..
Thankfully business leaders and forward thinkers wont spin on a sixpence in quite the same way
Poker,
Ocados current and prospective partners will be constantly re-evaluating the merits or otherwise of Ocados proposition in far greater detail than myself. As the market and consumer behaviour changes so will their outlook.
Personally I view the overall economic environment to be very detrimental to Ocados prospects hence my sell. I have followed every aspect of Ocado for many, many years. Always interested in investing in them at the right price.
Important to understand and acknowledge the ultra fast grocery threat to Ocado rather than dismiss it as some couriers unprofitably whizzing around on bikes dropping off some cokes and a curry. The articles I have attached explain this in more detail.
Ocado as said may well see off this threat, gain more clients and march onwards, let's see
Best of luck to you too.
Valueplay
for an insight into that market I look beyond some Proactiveinvestor and Grocer coffee break articles....
Poker,
JP Morgan and Berenberg provided the analysis in the articles I attached. You disagree with it, fine, but the issue is one that should be looked at thoroughly by anyone following Ocado.
Irons in the fire
Back over £8
"Poker,
JP Morgan and Berenberg provided the analysis in the articles I attached. You disagree with it, fine, but the issue is one that should be looked at thoroughly by anyone following Ocado."
What the same Berenberg that has a current buy target at £1800?
You appear to think it will topple the likes of Ocado or the massive UK Grocery market because some Lords at JPM seem to suggest it to you.... I can assure you that there are analysts that will churn you out a bull or bear case on anything you like..take your pick .. they will show you an argument that black is merely a shade of white ...
I am buying here recently every time this sinks and piling back in any trade I sell to get more shares with the same level of capital in ..I am looking for 2023-24..I dont let some 6-9 month situation change my mid term thoughts on a business
Go Gorilla !!
Carrington,
The Berenberg article outlines the predicted growth and size of the ultra fast delivery model. In their view major grocers need to be involved in the space or lose a chunk of market share. As I have outlined in many previous posts these outfits present a threat to Ocado, and all other grocers. Ocado may well see off this competition over time. It is an important issue to at least acknowledge and discuss further.
Poker,
I've never said ultra fast delivery will topple Ocado. I've simply said it that ultra fast delivery is a significant threat to Ocado, as it is to all grocers.
Best of luck with your investing.
"Online grocery tech is a huge, expanding industry, room for many different players/solutions."
posted by valueplay 27 January 11.14.
I believe that remains true Casapinos but ultra fast delivery has expanded since then and Ocado retail sales are falling. I believe the competition they pose to the existing grocery industry has increased since January. Ultra fast grocery delivery is a threat to the established and online grocery industry. Its something that is a lot more than a mere passing trend, other grocers will be watching the market segment very closely.
meanwhile ... Ocado share price has climbed 15% off the 691p low
.... good job we all haven't been obsessing with Gorilla !
what price you want to buy in at Valueplay?... waiting for credit markets to collapse??
" JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Is 25% 'Undervalued' "
Valueplay
I take it that you give you the signal to ...pile in ??
if its good enough for JPM ........
Noone is obsessed with ultra fast delivery. Put simply it is a strong trend to all grocers that should be discussed rather than be written off as unprofitable etc.
On the sidelines re Ocado mainly due overall economic environment. May miss out but that's fine. Always re-evaluating market prices and opportunities.
Hope your investment works out.
Broker views are usually worth considering and mulling over in my view. Of course I don't agree with many but I will review their information.
I'm not interested in cryptocurrency Poker but it's clearly something that interests you, good luck with it.
OK sorry Value, that was a little unkind BUT if you'll forgive my intrusion into your investment strategy I would like to offer some constructive comments. Others here will know you better than me, but casual examination shows you have posted 2000+ comments, predominantly on this board or in the retail space and almost uniformly positive on OCDO over the last few years, unfortunately, while I think your instincts were largely right in that OCDO is a disruptor and likely to grow into a major player in a rapidly expanding market, I suspect you allowed your optimism to cloud the very obvious fact that the SP was on an a long-term downward trend. As I have posted before, I have been invested here twice (and I am by nature a long-term, cautious investor) but once when I thought the SP had run way ahead of the company's medium-term prospects and once when I saw the writing on the wall presaging a fall ,I sold.
It's a pity that you didn't do the same, but having not done so I guess you have sold out lately? and accepted a loss.BUT that doesn't now mean that you were wrong before and right to do so now , your recent conversion to a negative stance is possibly more predicated on frustration than reason.Succesful investing depends on good analysis, good timing and a bit of luck.
OK enough from me and if you want to tell me to ***** off(feel free to fill in whatever letters you like in place of the asterisks!). As is always (I hope ) with me I post to offer a positive contribution, whether that be on share news, my analysis or my position on a share . I won't pursue the matter and leave you to rebut my post should you wish. I have no intention to offend and wish you better luck in your other investments.
Cheers Casapinos your posts are always insightful and constructive.
Yes, I have sold out recently. I have done so realising a healthy profit given that the bulk of my Ocado investment was purchased many years ago at £3.40. Yes you look to have judged your investment very well, congratulations. We both though have realised profits. Getting in very early on disrupting tech companies pays off greatly.
There have been some exceptional events in the past few years that have been very challenging to investors. I misjudged the share during the covid cycle and was overoptimistic. Couldn't have foreseen the Ukraine war. With retrospect when that started Ocado was a clear sell but there we go. Many others on this board remained invested. Huge investors have also misjudged and not sold Ocado shares.
No regrets from me. As always I look forward, try to learn from experience, research heavily and keep an eye on making profitable investments. I still post my views as I am interested in the company and follow it intently. I value reading other points of view and discussing issues related to the company.
Cheers
Value...... thank you for your gracious response to my post which, perhaps, it didn't deserve!!