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Started: Foxykiwi, 23 Jun 2023 10:41
Last post: Saab93se, 23 Jun 2023 15:17
I’m going with the Directors. Not keen on the name “Mobico” but with recent fuel price drops and a dividend that looks sustainable (imo) this is great value. Bought another 4000 today to add to my 8000. New average 105p.
The company changed name and has a new profile on LSE:
https://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.html?shareprice=MCG&share=Mobico-Grp
If the Directors have bought then that's a sure sign the company is performing or a belief the company is performing. Mr Market seems to think otherwise and rightly so with inflation and increased wages. This stock is so binary, its making my head scratch, but Im sticking with Directors sentiment here for next month.
Last post: Nitro182, 22 Jun 2023 17:19
Yeah there's a new board under the mobico name.
Cant see why this is dropping if Bus services are normal and Directors have bought in. Im topping up as much as I can and want at least 4k shares by results day next month. Is servicing debt just got more expensive and strikers pay going to hamper profit margins. Something is factoring in and not too sure what it is.
Have we got a new bb set up ?
Is Paddy & Poker still in or sold up
Amazing to see where this share has dropped too ! I'm one of the covid originals who was trying to find the bottom, where you would see continuous bounces in SP , from 220p to 300p. Unbelievable to see what has happened to value and the company ! Shows you shares are a dangerous game.
Yes WTF
Lets hope now they have changed the name management feck get a move on & start turning this ship around
Started: Mulder, 20 Jun 2023 22:52
Last post: Mulder, 20 Jun 2023 22:52
Re: RNS
At these levels?
Started: wealthtrasfer, 20 Jun 2023 19:11
Last post: joseywales, 20 Jun 2023 20:25
Well I've done a swap on some of my NEX for SYNT. I got a bit annoyed to see an RNS about a change of name when the share price is on the floor ... insult to injury and all that. I sold just under 112 thinking I'll swallow the loss if it climbs from there ... only to see 108 end of day. What an absolute joke! If SYNT recovers a little before NEX rises I'll be back in ... mug that i am. There are plenty of others out there with 'double' potential and slowly I'm thinking NEX will not be one of them.
I’d take 251
New site is live
Last post: GenghisInvestor, 20 Jun 2023 18:32
Thats a good question - maybe they put it in Tesla
If banks are willing to pay 5.7% + the FSCS levy and make a profit, where on earth are they investing it at getting a better return that’s worth the risk? It certainly won’t be nex with these financials.
These online banks have an upper limit of £85k which rules out most institutions . The argument is that IIs are putting their money in bonds and not companies like NEX
I’m not buying Nex at these levels for 4.5%, I’m not after 5.7% in a boring savings account. Ive spotted an opportunity to make 75% - 150%. It’s difficult to time but I know it will happen.
My only regret is I got out of 888 at 70 to lump more in here as I thought this would move quicker.
I am still in, although naturally pleased that I cashed in my side pot here. Shame it was only a baby tranche :)
Unless I have missed something, nothing company-specific has taken place in the past couple of weeks to justify a change of sentiment.
IMO, if you were bullish then, no reason for a change of opinion. Likewise if you were/are bearish. Anyway, time will tell. Maybe a double bottom coming up. Still looking at 102p for a top up, although may go lower, if 103p breaks, of course. Provisionally, a final top up high 90's perhaps?
Anyway, enough crystal ball gazing for now. Need to save its energy to help get England over the line here :)
Started: Hindy86, 20 Jun 2023 13:55
Last post: JG68, 20 Jun 2023 15:46
That lasted long as usual!
Is all I’ve been waiting for
If this is it and we start curling back up from here
Shorts should start reducing soon.
There silly if they don’t
That’s my opinion anyway
Let’s see
Good luck everyone
One last little duck to get inline then we grind higher
Started: GenghisInvestor, 20 Jun 2023 13:57
Last post: GenghisInvestor, 20 Jun 2023 13:57
Birmingham bus fares to increase - all day tickets & weekly passes to see price rise
https://www.birminghamworld.uk/news/birmingham-bus-fares-increase-all-day-tickets-weekly-passes-4188684
Bus fares in Birmingham and across the West Midlands are set to rise - and the operator is reviewing whether it will continue to participate in the government’s £2 price cap scheme.
All day tickets and weekly passes are being hit by price rises from July 3. The fare for a National Express West Midlands all day ticket is going up 50p from £4 to £4.50 from Monday 3rd July 2023. A weekly pass will be £17, a £2 increase from £15 currently.
It pointed out that costs including fuel, electricity, parts and labour have increased to 125 percent while the number of people using buses remains around 90 percent of what it was before the pandemic.
Last post: barneysmb, 20 Jun 2023 13:47
National Express partnership providing first-ever sustainable shuttle service to Glastonbury Festival.
...
It’s an innovative solution for sustainable festival and events travel which we look forward to introducing to the sector.
Good to see more of this now travel sector is gathering pace....
https://www.business-live.co.uk/enterprise/national-express-partnership-providing-first-27160452
Started: KarlTaylor, 19 Jun 2023 16:28
Last post: kingrav, 20 Jun 2023 13:03
I'm hoping, with the change of name, they sell part of the company, to lower debt. That should see the sp rise nicely.
NEX are essential system, at some point there will be a massive government injection of cash as they are needed for the broader economy.
At this price, the chance of a takeover bid are very good, even at £1.2b takeover it would be a bargain.
NEX is easy meat for the shorts to feast on short term - sentiment is against NEX with interest rates rising, inflation still not falling at the required rate, the war etc etc - the shorts will have to cover their positions in the lead up to the NEX results however at the end of July which will imo be good - RR. shorts got massacred when they held their positions and the results went against them - I expect NEX to keep testing 110p maybe even the 105p bottom level on the 30th May over the next few weeks but then rise on the lead up to results - lets see
gla dyor etc
At this price us long term holders are doomed.
I still have faith that Nex will turn around
At this price its a strong takeover target.
National Express are an essential service with massive transport networks and contracts across multiple regions.
Can see either a fund or rival but in an offer now to takeover to sit on for a few years while the economy turns around.
Started: KarlTaylor, 19 Jun 2023 17:18
Last post: GenghisInvestor, 19 Jun 2023 17:23
That is frequently seen after hours - these are off book transactions , very unlikely to be a buy, but not impossible
a £4 million transaction is far too big compared to other transactions seen today . It would be broken up into smaller parts
19-Jun-23 16:59:00 112.60 3,900,000 Unknown* 110.70 110.90 4m O
Started: jeff19, 19 Jun 2023 15:57
Last post: jeff19, 19 Jun 2023 15:57
Got to be patient with this one. 6 months to 1 year I am predicting a multi-bagger 2 x. Any sniff of news and this will move very fast. One more top-up can't help myself :)
Started: KarlTaylor, 19 Jun 2023 15:33
Last post: KarlTaylor, 19 Jun 2023 15:33
Lots of upside from this point.
Established business, with growth in the EU and USA.
Started: jeff19, 15 Jun 2023 13:45
Last post: Manz12, 19 Jun 2023 13:45
First group having a good day and NEX having a bad one. This is going to get a lot worse. The signs are there, and now the usual bulls will start whinging
If you book a few days ahead the average coach ticket price seems to be £10-12 rising to £25-£25 as the coach gets sold out.
Thats a serious amount of tickets that need to be sold to reach £2.8 billion
Carrington
Sorry didn't mean to imply anything like that. Its a good point that all markets are facing the same macro issues .. There has been been a a lot of downer talk about the LSE as well
NEX turnover is £2.8 billion - thats a lot of bus tickets across a lot of jurisdictions (except for the US school business )
Gengis "NEX is a global company in the FT250, which is dominated by companies that address the UK market.. Its similar to some of the larger corps in the FT100 :-)" - yes I am aware it is a global company, one of the reasons I have invested in it as it spreads risk - not sure of the point you are trying to make - inflation, interest rates etc are macro economics that currently affect ALL countries that NEX has a presence in - the US are ahead in terms of controlling inflation/interest rates compared to Europe/UK , which will hopefully auger well for the NEX market in the US going forward, with inflation falling and with interest rates being closer to a peak over there - this can be seen with more market commentators in the US predicting the start of a new bull run - will have to see how it plays out
gl dyor etc
You do talk some rubbish QD. Trains are used by people with money and people that use buses are so poor they will opt to walk or ride. I would say I kind of agree with your observation (we may be wrong because I’ve done no research and it would be ridiculous to assume you have) but I certainly reach a different conclusion. I think trains are/will suffer as the average train commuter has probably switched to hybrid working, cutting train use. I do associate buses with the elderly, students and lower paid workers, who aren't going to ‘benefit’ from hybrid working.
A quick break down of what you a getting at decade lows, because of rising rates and the city is desperate attempt to break it up for a quick buck. As QD demonstrates there is always too much attention paid to UK coaches… probably one reason to change the name, to stop the domestic investor looking down their nose at it.
NXWM operate an 80% bus monopoly in the West Midlands where Im doubtful usage is likely to recede any time soon, with people opting to walk to save £2 a journey.
Durham School Services, the second largest student transport operator in the States, they’re picking up slighter fewer contracts than expected but nothing to say it’s fading. US school boards are unlikely to ask their students to walk/ride in and I think its a safe assumption that US states will not cut funding and add millions of car journeys, so another solid and necessary business. (It’s also worth mentioning that first sold first student, roughly twice the size, for $3.5b and that’s the only reason the balance sheets look good over there, where do you think they’ve found the money for buybacks)
You have Alsa which is another monopoly, operating a very successful coach network across Spain as well as bus services across Spain, Morocco and Portugal.
You have German train which couldn’t really have gone any better and must have enhanced the brands reputation in that region.
And of course UK coaches. They seem to be doing well off the back of train strikes and people tightening belts where possible.
All in all a globally diverse company providing essential services. On paper this is remains safe and reliable investment with a potentially huge upside.
Started: barneysmb, 16 Jun 2023 15:03
Last post: Moonman1977, 16 Jun 2023 19:53
QD
I had a look at ALSA Spain it is look similar to the NEX coach network
MM, You seem quite knowledgeable on buses, you must use them yourself. I’m honoured that you would spend all evening telling me about them too.
It’s a shame your understanding on the financial isn’t quite so well versed. As I say, I suggest you look up the basics on bitesize. It doesn’t take a genius to realise that when a business has no equity other that goodwill, and it produces a return less than you can get on cash, it’s effectively worthless.
This reminds me of when marstons was sitting on the 30 year bottom at 53p. The chart never runs out of paper though, and it’s now 30p.
Gengis, nex is mostly coach travel in the UK, but not internationally.
Since we are talking economics...
Interesting argument , but I think it should be pointed out that NEX is in coach travel, not bus travel. Its not a commuter service, its for intercity travel thats not daily. Semantics matter
In my opinion coach travel is pretty inelastic demand , that is people will pay what it takes to get a seat . If a coach ticket goes from £10 to £15 thats still affordable because its not daily ticket.. People dont commute by coach daily, it would take too long for starters
If ticket prices on intercity rail increase, then the NEX coach network will catch some of the travel demand
And before you mention it, spellcheck put the space in microeconomics!
Busses- US plural for bus. Nex primarily operates busses in the US.
You obviously have no idea about business or the importance of understanding your target market if you think it doesn’t matter how much money they have. Imagine a your costs go up, and your margins are very tight. Not such a problem if your customers are well off, just pass it on. Now imagine your customers have no money, you can’t pass it on. They’ll just walk/cycle. I suggest you look at BBC bite size to get a basic understanding of micro economics.
Started: GenghisInvestor, 16 Jun 2023 19:30
Last post: GenghisInvestor, 16 Jun 2023 19:40
There has been targeted selling . If you want to dump a large position then it stretches out of a long period of time and basically set your algo to sell into any price rise
that must have been happening for the past couple of months
hopefully 110-120 is the floor
So is it nothing personal
It looks like a sectoral shift in investment strategy. Of course that sounds like coping
I was out most of yesterday, so was unable to buy that lovely dip that I see took place late morning! Loving the ongoing battle with the 50 DMA. It feels like it is going to make a decisive move (one way or the other) soon, IMO.
Still long and cautiously optimistic with the core holding, but that looked like an easy trading opportunity missed. Bah! :)
I was at Luton Airport and the coaches were non stop with a queue of around 200 people waiting.
Every single bus was full.
There is no question of demand it has more to do with execution.
We will see at the end of July.
In the meantime like I said before I am adding every month as long as it is under 125.
@Mrcool I was on the motorway yesterday and passed a national express transport solutions
Coach which looked like new branding for the Uk ,
I attach the link .
https://nxts.nationalexpress.com
A friend of mine also got a coach back from Gatwick recently whilst the train strikes were on .
He was very impressed with the service and commented on how friendly and professional the staff were.
Said the coach was full.plus the coach terminal was very busy.
DB
Name change early June.
We are now half way through June and it hasn’t happened. Should we be concerned?
(If you’re going to make a statement- at least back it up.)
Having recently topped up again, now slightly concerned that another few pence have gone. This is now significant largest holding now and really wishing positive news soon - really scratching my head on the market - are we just too eager and too early investing in this share.? I think of myself as an investor with a longer time horizon than regular trader)
Started: yeoviltrue, 15 Jun 2023 18:37
Last post: wealthtrasfer, 16 Jun 2023 00:32
In an effort to be as equally ridiculous as flip flop and his ( I say his as I doubt any woman would be quite that stupid) alter ego Manz, I predict £6.00 to £6.80.
£ 2
I’m convinced these are worth between 168 - 240. I struggle to price in raising rates but I’m sure it will rerate to the lower estimate… eventually!
£2.50
60p easy
Started: jeff19, 15 Jun 2023 12:50
Last post: Moonman1977, 15 Jun 2023 15:32
Can someone explain why the share price has tanked since June 2022? The last trading statements and results don't look bad, but the falling knife syndrome is again. Understand the debt but ultimately the business looks on a sound footing. Is it just market sentiment? GG.
Don't get sunburn Mr Locky. Your interacting because you know I'm right and just rambling to make yourself feel better.
Manz why is anyone going to waste their time interacting with you? You’re bearish, go and short it. You offer no new insight, you repeat the same rubbish. And what can be said hasn’t been said 100x before. A company that is benefitting from train disruption, Gov subs to get people on bus’s and a cost of living crisis. A company that has a positive contribution to make when it come to congestion and environmental issues. Most of its peers have been taken private in recent years, and Firsts up 40% over the last 6 months while this sits 20% down. I see this as an opportunity to accumulate. Anyway, I’m heading back to the garden. I can’t believe I wasted my time interacting with you haha
Wow jeff you must be in dreamland or your under the influence of the rose tinted glasses. Will be down under a pound before results. There is clearly more bears on this board now than the bullish clowns. Can see the regulars are hiding and don't say the can't be bothered to chat because that is nonsense
This will start ticking up in the next few weeks over 140 +. This is going to move very fast leading to the end of July. Had to have another top-up this afternoon at these bargain prices.
Started: barneysmb, 15 Jun 2023 12:35
Last post: barneysmb, 15 Jun 2023 12:35
Share price moves a few pence and the "we're heading to £1" doom mongers pop up......
Needs to be a bit of calm here.....and stop just keeping popping up when it heads south a bit, yet disappearing when it's heading north.
Started: Time2Buy, 15 Jun 2023 12:32
Last post: Time2Buy, 15 Jun 2023 12:32
Crazy times
Started: Sreves, 14 Jun 2023 12:47
Last post: joseywales, 14 Jun 2023 18:54
It could just be that they have cleared down the voting rights held through financial instruments. This could well have been for someone else.
Other than an opportunity at multi-year lows on many tickers, there's just not much incentive for big funds to keep their money in UK PLC. The greater outlook is dire if you actually speak to many people running SME businesses in the UK. The Brexit factor is starting to bite and government have got their heads firmly buried in the sand. There's obviously other issues but it's been enough for me to move some money out of UK only managed funds. There is simply no pathway being presented to support SME growth, diversity and strength. (Just some minor pandering to big corporates).
Long winded, but I expect some big fund managers are betting against any significant boost to the UK PLC and putting their money into other geographies where they expect recovery will be more 'dynamic'.
When it comes to NEX I expect decent results end of July and no reason why the divi cannot remain. Whilst debt is not significant, so long as there is no downward margin shift, it's manageable. What the debt does actually mean is that return to a a bigger divi (in p) is a way off.
The train strikes are manna from heaven for NEX - I mean the people who have/will use the bus service as a replacement for the train service are getting transport that runs on time, the comfort of your own seat rather than standing up in the aisles jostling with people and at a price that is more cost effective for ones budget - I wonder how many of these people have gone back or will go back to using trains - not many imo
gla dyor etc
Train strikes to go ahead for next 6 months
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1017865/train-strikes-to-go-ahead-for-next-six-months-1017865.html#:~:text=Train%20strikes%20will%20continue%20across,said%20general%20secretary%20Mick%20Whelan.
Blackrock are underweight in DM equity and do expect a recession at this stage, but that largely depends on what the Central banks do from here on in....
Need to see if the FED pauses today and then lets the data and the lag catch up and slow the core inflation into July and August....
The US bank crisis will slow lending which slows the money supply further into the economy ..FED has provided QE to support problem banks ... a system under real close observation at present
Inflation in bus wages is already a known, known ...
I dont see a need to panic at this stage
You can now get around 5% risk free return on savings. Equities just aren’t worth the risk imo, particularly those with a lot of debt.
Last post: Fishb0n3, 14 Jun 2023 18:11
If you are looking at the chart closely it looks like the 8m trade was a buy not a sale.
Not that it will make any difference and I do not pay attention to daily fluctuations, this is just an observation.
Does anyone see the same think?
Started: raamsudhakar, 14 Jun 2023 10:44
Last post: raamsudhakar, 14 Jun 2023 10:48
Over all sell 9.8 million
When an investment company decreases its shareholding, it means that the company is reducing the number of shares it owns in a particular company or companies. Shareholding refers to the ownership of shares or stocks in a company.
There could be several reasons why an investment company might decrease its shareholding:
Portfolio adjustment: Investment companies actively manage their portfolios to optimize returns and manage risk. They may sell shares of a particular company to rebalance their portfolio or reallocate their investments in accordance with their investment strategy.
Profit-taking: If the investment company has made a substantial profit from its investment in a particular company, it may decide to sell some of its shares to lock in the gains and realize the profits.
Risk management: The investment company may reduce its shareholding in a company if it believes that the company's prospects have deteriorated or if it wants to reduce exposure to a particular industry or sector.
Strategic decision: The investment company may have changed its investment strategy or decided to allocate its capital to other opportunities. As a result, it may reduce its shareholding in certain companies to fund new investments.
It's important to note that a decrease in shareholding by an investment company does not necessarily reflect the overall market sentiment toward the company in question. Other investors may have different reasons for buying or selling shares, and the stock price can be influenced by various factors such as market conditions, company performance, and investor sentiment.
Regenerate response
Last post: Pokerchips, 12 Jun 2023 11:48
I am not selling anything .....day before the US CPI figure and then the FED decision.... not suspiring there isn't a strong move forward just yet.... but...the strong move off the lows is a good sign ...and the market seems cautiously optimistic that the FED will pause ....for June..... CPI figure is always a difficult one to predict ...but I am betting it will be lower as time passes over the next 2-3 months
Stalled at 19.30 several times today. Break this and we should beheaded for a 125-140 range. More good half year results and back to the 180s by the end of the year?
Started: Findingmyfeet, 11 Jun 2023 12:13
Last post: Rl38, 11 Jun 2023 12:59
"Within the going concern outlook period, the only expiry of these facilities is a £400m sterling bond maturing in November 2023. In anticipation of this refinancing, the Group entered into a £400m bridge-to-bond facility in December 2022; this is for an initial period of 18 months and includes committed options to extend the maturity date until December 2025."
"As previously communicated, we have already put in place a bridge-to-bond facility in respect of the £400m bond due November this year. We expect incremental annualised interest costs from this bond refinance to be in the region of £12m."
Had a quick skim through the annual report, and I notice a £400m bond is due to be repaid in November.
Does anyone know if anything has been secured to pay this off?