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Hi Wilson63,
Thanks for that link. It's good they have confirmed the line up.
Dr Eric Ding really knows his stuff! and provides excellent information on twitter. Can't wait to hear what he has to say
Dr Kate Templeton has been doing some great work in this pandemic at the Edinburgh Uni. She gave a presentation as part of a COG webinar a few weeks ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwIo-AKeulE
Anders,
It's been over 5 months. When will we learn about this? Are any dates given?
Oriens1,
The tender has been awarded to Microgen and Primer but we just don't know how much of the £3B they will get as there's no indication of how the money will be divided. IF divided equally, Novacyt will get £13.4 million a year for the next 4 years. But, until we know exact figures/percentages, it's all based on assumptions.
Everyone here was talking about IIs buying our shares at this low price, and some did, but if you refer to what was actually happening on the link below, you sill see that shareholding by IIs or MMs was reduced by 4.51% from Dec 2020 to 16 April 2021. What's more, our biggest holder, BlackRock has reduced its holding by 25.24%. Until they start buying again, I personally wouldn't make a move. Hope this helps:
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xfra/nyz/ownership
Anders, you said earlier its going to be an interesting week or two. Are you expecting announcements on these tenders - if so, why? Thanks
1'' The Primerdesign qPCR assay is the only one that detects 100% of all variants, - so I would not expect a competition for identifying positive / negative Covid-19 PCR results''.
What about Ygen's Clarigene test? Detects all variants last time I looked.
ScaredieCat, sorry you're wrong. We've been waiting to learn the awards since November.
Anders
Anders_UK
The £20 billion tender which Microgen won with 145 others was awarded on 2 Nov 2020. So whatever portion Microgen got, was already built into the current sp.
Those webinars don't really help us though, last one they didn't even mention novacyts name
Webinair soon and we have some very outspoken supporters of pcr in there
https://twitter.com/NovacytGroup/status/1383421503086096391
Yes thanks Deas
My takeaway from this was
"How buyers award work can also vary depending on what the framework is for. For example a service based opportunity may prove difficult to allow a direct award, so the framework would need to be set up to allow for mini competitions, whereas a product may be offered via a direct award. "
1 The Primerdesign qPCR assay is the only one that detects 100% of all variants, - so I would not expect a competition for identifying positive / negative Covid-19 PCR results.
Likewise -
2 The SNGsig assay currently is the only one with a CE-IVD Approval, so I would expect a mini-competition in future, when competitor products are available, but not presently, as our product is unique in respect to Approvals.
If the framework is for 4 years, the buyer can pick the winning product from those who can supply in the time available, the price available, and the functionality available, as competitors may be improving their offering continually.
I don't think a supplier is going to offer the same price for his product for the whole 4 years.
Thanks Deas999, so Lot 1 looks unlikely to come with any firm guarantees on revenue however the company will be able to compete on a local level where there is demand. That may go some way to explaining the large network of new sales reps they have hired.
The framework also looks like it won't inhibit private sector growth in the way that a direct DHSC contract may have. Fingers crossed for more info in an Monday morning RNS. Hopefully they have their fingers in some of the other lots too!
Courtesy of bladesharp regarding the framework and how it works:
https://thorntonandlowe.com/everything-you-need-to-know-about-a-framework-agreement/
Anders uk I understand now I'm going to be a rascal microgen and primerdesign!! ooof.))
The headline figure is 12 million a month. 3 into 36 million In the first quarter. That is the figure when you subtract the DHSC. 400k a day revenue.
Demand should be good at the moment and the promate left on the shelves by the DHSC may fetch a higher price. It might even bring in another customer. Loads of countries are seeing their infections rocket. Tests for the variants should be on the buy list of those countries whose infection rates are not horrid as they try not to join the heavily infected countries.
From a business side of things and not a horrible pandemic, things are looking o.k. the antibody test will be ideal when people need to know their antibody resistance levels. Mobile testing sat in the wings
Novacyt is well positioned. We need an outcome from DHSC and we can move on.
Wilson,
There are 146 suppliers in the £20B tender, so if you say an equal split that's £137M if you round up. I know it's a simplistic approach, but we've been in the top 10 suppliers list several times last year. So it bodes well, if we forget about the dispute with DHSC.
Oriens1, it does say award which suggests some portion of the total tender value has been awarded. We'll find out how much in due course.
GLA
Porky, I understood we are still at the bid stage! So nothing won yet, and even if we do win a slice, still need 28 days from notice just so other companies that lost out can have a redress! Please correct me if I'm wrong....
The opportunity to buy sub £5.00 here is a blessing. I don’t think it will be available for too long. GLA
@Hydr31
My last reply to you as you have a clear agenda to de-ramp and remain negative and as you will be aware as a share holder here i just can't stand that. As you have sold out, good luck with your future stock picks.
Key Takes:-
* It may have escaped your notice but we are bang in the middle of a worldwide Pandemic. we might be feeling ****y in the UK that the Vaccine has saved us BUT the VOCs may yet prove otherwise. BUT what is certain is that there is high worldwide demand for Testing.
* The DHSC need as many providers as possible as Many wont have capacity to supply. Also if they are supplying elsewhere this will affect what can be delivered.
* Laws of supply and demand also kick in. You are not going to sell a quality product to the DHSC cheap if you have high demand elsewhere, why should you? so they need to source product where they can get it.
* The contract is a 4 year deal. This is telling the market that the initial provision is no less than 4 years. They are not expecting the situation to fully end any time soon. It also tells the market that the business has LONGEVITY. it wont be a short term wonder.
* I do agree with you about the government buying rubbish, cheap wins the day as we see with LFTs from China. Also companies do pitch at losses just to win market share in other sectors but Novacyt don't need to do that, Novacyt have the only solution that can detect all Variants of Concern.
Currently its the VOCs that are the problem, if you want quality to protect your citizens you pay for it. If you don't care you continue to buy crap from China. Those are the choices.
As i say, you clearly have a glass half empty view here which is your call but personally i still remain positive, at £4 the SP is an utter nonsense, we will soon see what happens next.
Good Luck
Anders uk /porky how dyou get to the 136 mil.
#i'll take anything.
Lmao, BMD the 50/50 artist.
A Zimbabwe contract was a tender.. mr Mullins knows pricing. The beauty about being on the WHO list is that you have to be better than most others.
The reduction in steps and reagents mean costs and prices are likely to have fallen. Allied to this may be a shortage believe it or not. The infections world wide are increasing. Cheap chinese rubbish is false economy when you add in the mop up operations.
@M300
Like it :)
Looks like BMD has confirmed that Ygen have won some of that govt contract. First of several he reckons. He usually gets it right.
How about this for a ramp
The RNS wording should have been earnings might not meet expectations but could exceed them.
Enjoy the sun GLA
I’m not sure if that’s how frameworks work. Being on it is great, it means we have passed qualification to be a supplier. But we still need to be chosen by the users. If another company appears more favourable on a price basis or ease of use basis, then potentially we are not getting the job. That’s certainly how frameworks work in water treatment. For years we had one company on the framework that was winning all the business by going in at a reduced price... they were running at a loss to build out revenue . they and we’re pretty rubbish at doing the job and eventually they got bought out and directors paid off. Drove me nuts as the government was happy to buy rubbish because it was cheapest and I had a good product but we wouldn’t run at a loss to get the sale. Hopefully the company can start RNS’s some sales updates.