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No need to convince me Steve, I bought another 5000 shares today to add to my already substantial holding. The point I was trying to make is it's those simple questions that the market wants answered, it doesn't like guesswork. Not only that but Graham's language doesn't scream 'covid is here to stay!', he's more the 'sales should continue into the latter part of the year' type of guy.
The main outlier is avacta in terms of steep valuation and if you listen to Alastair Smith the CEO he is always talking about the billions the company will make with their affirmer technology and other proprietary platforms. That right now is the difference in my opinion.
I really can't understand why it has taken so long for AVACTA to get their LFT COVID test out.
Maybe it is a great test? But I suspect NCYT will get an equivalent test out that works equally as well in double quick time.
Surely AVACTA have missed the boat. They have taken far too long to capitalise on the opportunity, and have plenty of competition. I really don't get why they are so highly valued.(compared to NCYT)
Alansugar, " the shorters do not want to leave", Without any warning any day now around 7.00am,they will not be given the option.GLA.
"I really can't understand why it has taken so long for AVACTA to get their LFT COVID test out." - This the time spent developing the test from scratch
"Maybe it is a great test? But I suspect NCYT will get an equivalent test out that works equally as well in double quick time." - Maybe NCYT will get one out that is as good, BUT we will have to see
"Surely AVACTA have missed the boat. They have taken far too long to capitalise on the opportunity, and have plenty of competition. I really don't get why they are so highly valued.(compared to NCYT)" - This is a very odd thought process! Surely if you think Avacta have "missed the boat" then clearly NCYT have as well? The recent news that Innova are ramping up production capacity for their LFT and the UK governments interest along with many others would say Avacta have not missed the boat, far from it.
As for being overvalued please go and do your research on valuation of Biotech's, many have been bought for Billions despite being loss making - BIG CLUE for you, it's all about Intellectual Property.
Avacta have proven the use BIG time for Affimer's as diagnostics (Avactas Diagnostics division will shortly be profitable) in the Lateral Flow Test, the other important point is the time taken to develop the LFT is now done, it's now very quick to drop in any new Affimer's for any new Virus or other target.
One final point, research the use of Antibodies then have a think what next generation Antibody Mimetics like Avacta's Affimers are potentially worth. It would seem MANY people didn't do the research and grossly underestimated Avacta
Good luck to you
Why has NCYT, one of the most successful COVID stocks, become the most undervalued?
Is it just market manipulation and shorters targeting a high profile volatile stock?
Why aren't they shorting ODX or AVACTA. How is it, on the one hand, some have concerns about revenue in perpetuity post COVID, and so down grade NCYT, BUT some COVID stocks that haven't made a penny are holding up so well.
Is it part of some entities grand plan to acquire the company?
Hey, Picathartes. Some interesting points, but I will pick you up on one.
Re: missing the boat. NO, NCYT have not missed the boat. They have made hundreds of millions in revenue and currently have well over £100m in the bank. AVACTA have made nothing , and when they eventually bring out their test and start to generate revenue NCYT will have a similar product and surely share the market with them.
Hi Steve, yes thats a fair point BUT I was only refering to LFT and not PCR revenue or past performance which clearly NCYT had MAJOR first mover advantage back at the start of the Pandemic and as we all know did remarkably well. I wish I had got into NCYT back in January last year
Of course it would be highly ironic, quite unexpected, but a somewhat mouthwatering prospect IF it turned out that
the partner NCYT was working with to develop their LFT Antigen turn out to be AVACTA.
AVACTA have a great test? NCYT have the volume manufacturing capability and the NHS/worldwide sales/ distribution outlets.
Just saying !!!!
Now that would be interesting Steve
Harchris another 5000 shares in a stock that shows no sign of recovering to it's previous highs.... Those bottomless pockets of yours are great ah....
************
I think you've got the wrong person Joker. I bought back in fairly recently and this is only my second top up? 12000 shares in total now.
Also why does it have to recover to its previous highs? My average is £4, wouldn't a 50% rise to £6 be a good investment? Or do you make 200% on all yours?
Picarthes good evening I think the general opinion is long term Avacta will do well and I asked the question Steve asked last week.
Surely it would have been much better to short Avacta with 3 mil revenues(you've seen the power of shorting here) and then buy a good position in them going forward.
Has the usa ii afforded Avacta protection?
For clarity I do not hold but think they will be succesful.
Hi Wilson,
hope all is well with you. Yes you could well be right there, I must admit I know very little about shorting, certainly something I have never done. I'm fairly basic in my short time as an active investor, find interesting companies with good tech and try and buy when fairly cheap with a view to a long term hold. Although I have occasionally traded I'm more a LTH
Picathartes Tks for your reply we are probably all in agreement stick the shorters in an extremely warm oven regards Wilson.
@Wilson
Just in case you're wondering (your post at 12:35 ref LTH "...they've nearly all done one"), I'm still here, and I'm sure Bramley, and others too, are lurking in the background.
Just waiting quietly for the re-rate, a lot of patience needed. The SP currently, indeed, does not compute, but that's because we know far more about what is going on than your average investor (see my Zulu Principle post from last year).
We eat and breath this share, it will be a while before Jo Bloggs catches up with what's been going on. There is so much coming down the line to drive this up. Just sitting on your hands for weeks on end can be the hardest thing. I know you are convalescing, Wilson, but for those that can get away form the screen please do so "a watched kettle never boils" - and when this kettle boils it's a real pressure cooker that's going to blow.
Multi-billion company in the making, first stop SP £15 coming soon (IMO), DYOR, GLA
Good evening hillseeker I'd no doubt by your strong posting that you were, it was more twitter where we've only really had Kilkenny ted Larry and a few obvious others that have been on the #ncyt supporting the share. I suppose I'm just fiercely loyal and don't understand as this is such a good share, others with cooler heads may be more sensible.:))
Hello hillseeker and Wilson .
Bramley is still invested and very active on an NCYT telegram group ( its a bit like WhatsApp )