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Surprised folks are still bigging this one up!
Sentiment is now ultra-bearish.
The shareprice has collapsed -70% in 6 months, day after day of relentless declines in the shareprice, vaccines are replacing tests, losing major orders, squabbling publicly with customers, could be mired in expensive legal hysteria for years to come.
Charts are now pointing to £2-3 as the next stop.
https://twitter.com/stevebennett17/status/1381563943261454336?s=21
VanV,
Would you mind explaining what that means? I know you're not sitting on a loss but it's not like you to be so flippant, unless I'm being completely dense, in which case, I apologise in advance.
It seems ODDO also own 1.53% of Abbott.
VanV,
That may be so but for people seeing their hard-earned savings go down the drain, I'm afraid that all that is secondary now.
It's all very well for the rich and those still in profits not to understand that, and to gloat here about how much more they have bought from people selling in desperation. I actually don't believe most of them but some people do.
Either way I expected more empathy from you. It's bad enough being treated so flippantly by someone we put our trust in to treat us a shabbily as GM has, but for others (in profit) to make a joke of our predicament is shameful. All IMO.
The CEO has informed us of a dispute. A dispute could be for numerous reasons. There is no way that Mullus will detail what is in dispute and what his course of action will be. It would be ridiculous to do that publicly and would be an advantage to those with whom the dispute exists. I fully expect the first step will be arbitration of which I expect to hear no details of until it has taken place . I would then expect to hear whether it has been resolved or will result in a legal recourse. We are hanging him when we dont know if he has steered the ship in the wrong direction. Disputes over business contracts / specific clauses are commonplace and it unfortunatel that this has to be public as it is highly likely to be resolved via compromise. Demanding to know and not supporting him is detrimental to the company we are invested in. I would suggest his silence is as a result of the situation he finds himself in , highly likely through no fault of his own. The company have been fast to market and have one of the best if not the best R anD of any of the small diagnostic companies on aim . The CEO has my full support.
Kaeren,
I'm with you on the resolution process as how it should be.
What is very odd to me is that NCYT sends out that RNS stating the dispute. Normally one would try to resolve it first before going to market with such an announcement. So, that RNS in my view would come when the commercial resolution process has failed. Which is not something you want with your 50% customer I would say. Unless NCYT wants to ditch them?
I have no idea what purpose they think it can serve apart from polarising the parties even more. 'You tell the market we are wrong? Excellent, see you in court to prove it'.
Publishing it now is beyond me.
MS
VanV,
Firstly, it was absolutely impossible for many people to believe that such a movement was 'inevitable'. We've all been here since the decline from £9 when GM gave his press interview on 29/1/21.
But, we had every right to believe that the 2020 draft accounts (announced in the said press conference) were legitimate - but it's taken until now for us to find out that they now need to be restated. This was certainly not 'inevitable'.
Added to that, you know perfectly well all the dangers of repeated an unending ramping given by a group who may or may not be 20 in number but who post here from daybreak till middle of the night and force everyone (even you) off the board if the said person does not agree with their every word to such an extent that even someone like you, who has been here forever and a very respected figure, declared that you would "never again post anything informative".
You and I may have been aware of the danger of these people but most others weren't.
Thirdly, there's a huge difference between a trickle of continuous losses from Jan to now but to lose more than 42% in 2 working days is a whole different ballgame.
Fourthly, whilst some of us were expecting the loss of the DHSC contract, most weren't because of 3 above.
Additionally, no-one suspected that we would lose our biggest customer by going on a war path with them.
Finally, to see that BR (and perhaps other IIs) knew about this and to now understand why they were selling, before we could, is the insult to injury which many admirers of GM took quite heavily.
So, no sir. I don't agree with your assessment of this calamity being 'inevitable'. I have certainly NEVER heard of such a thing in the business world with a company of this size - and I read absolutely everything. Who do you think we are? Pfizer?
If this was inevitable, no-one would have bought this share at £3 and above.
Even in the very unlikely case that it was, making jokes at this stage with the way most people are feeling, is in bad taste to say the least. All IMO.
Due to the accounts that will be released in the next 4 weeks.
VanV,
I'm afraid your post was not very reassuring. It sounded mocking - which is why I asked you to explain it.
I also feel that any reassuring posts about 'the company', at this moment in time, will sound like ramping, even from you. It may sooth those who are in profit but not as much as before. But, it won't sooth anyone who sold in panic at a great loss but still here reading our posts, or those who are in the red and getting deeper into the red daily.
We certainly don't give a damn what the company's growth strategy is because we don't believe a word that GM says.
Sometimes, people just need to be heard, understood and shown a little empathy. Ideally, we want you to be angry on our behalf, even if you personally are not suffering. I hope that you can put yourself in our shoes and do that. If you can't, then saying nothing and up-ticking the posts of those who feel this way is a poor but acceptable second option. All IMO.
@Deas99
It is possible that Steve Bennett has called this right????
I'm not a big fan of coincidences:
SH were in a good place and we were building for a SP Rally then they pushed out the statement.
Having been Hit, again SH starting to re-group and buy in for another push and we get hit with the ODDO valuation statement.
GM was 100% aware that his comment on forward outlook in the Jan results statement " difficult to provide a clear forecast on the financial performance " damaged the SP immediately by 17% and continued to decline. I know this because i personally made a big point of how bad this message was perceived by Share Holders directly to him. Other SH did the same thing.
In addition to mentioning the Dispute in this TU again he quoted "the Company continues to have limited visibility over future sales" WHY WHY WHY??? It wasn't required. It did not need saying!
Now in my considered opinion when a business has bad news they tend to push out other positive news to try and dilute the situation. In GMs case he hasn't bothered. In fact it feels like he has gone out of his way to make the situation worse.
I would go as far as to say that recent actions could indeed point to a deal being done and a price "Subject to" has been mentioned and these recent moves are designed to keep the SP down whilst the deal is finalised. It would not surprise me in the slighted to wake up to an RNS saying we are in talks with Abbotts ..
As for the dispute, frankly i 100% believe this will amount to nothing.
The minimum order value was £ 150m (Novacyt have not invoiced £23m yet). DHSC may be saying we didn't need the 100 machines that were late if that was the case the order value would be reduced to £ 100m a refund of £27m, Novacyt meanwhile probably want to invoice for the minimum contract value.
It does not matter. It will come down to what was agreed to be supplied and what they took delivery of. So as i see it worst case - 27m best case +23m or meet somewhere in the middle. I bet i am not far off here???
Ultimately this is just a mere distraction.
I believe that GM no longer cares about SH because a deal is about to be done. Hope to be proven wrong.
GLA
@Scaredicat,
Everyones personal circumstances will be different and also the way they handle and cope with any disappointments their investments.
I doubt many here are professional councillors and to get closely involved in such, could be dangerous.
I thought the opposite of anger was empathy.
troublesome,
This was a private conversation between me and VanV. I have zero interest in your opinion on the matter.
Shouldn't you have filtered me on your orders from above? The sooner you do this, the happier we'll both be.
@Scardiecat,
Message boards are not really the place for private conversations.
I have never filtered anyone - maybe I'm too empathetic even with those who appear pathetic.
Heaven help us !
The eternal optimist known as scardiecat cat is back .
Stop disrupting the board I’m already tired of your incessant whining . As troublesome quite rightly points out there are better places for a private chat than a public bulletin board ;)
VanV,
Thank you for clarifying your use of the word inevitable. I think you'll see from the many upticks of my 2 posts (which is very unusual as you know!) that other people might have misunderstood too.
It's the first post here to Skier1 which sounded mocking:
"skier1 (18:11) - Maybe it's another lifestyle company whose CEO is in the forest! #KissMyKimberlitePipe"
which sounded a little inappropriate to his somewhat anxious one. I did say in my first post to you that "I apologise in advance" if I misunderstand you. I still don't understand it but believe you when you say that you didn't mean any offence.
I appreciate your taking the time to read my posts and as ever, happy that we can converse like two adults, and reach an amicable conclusion.
All the best,
SC
VanV,
I forgot to answer your questions.
Tbh, I don't think we'll get a big contract from the US. Our main USP now is the identification of variants and I recently read that the Biden gov. has just given a huge grant to a US company to produce such a test. I can't remember the name but I can find out, if you're interested. Also, they are already using PCR - I posted the huge amounts that they were spending daily but no-one here said that these were ours and I think it would have been announced by GM if they were. Of course, no-one can be certain.
ROW - who knows?
But, even with these, I fear that no matter how well the company does, GM is our biggest deramper. I think you've seen here that I'm not alone in this observation. The company may go far. The IIs may do well. But, where the sp will end up is anyone's guess.
All IMO
VanV,
I had no idea. Now I see what you mean. I didn't know you two had a history.
He came across as sincere here though.
To be honest, I find the rampers here more dangerous. Did you see Diamond Horse's latest post thanking the rampers here. This is the second time that he's thanked them. You can see why and how it works, I'm sure;
https://twitter.com/Diamond_Horse_0?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Hiya Morningsun,
Sorry your question got lost in the avalancheI of posts. I have no idea where in the dispute resolution process the parties are at. Perhaps meetings individually with an arbitrator have taken place, perhaps the two parties have met numerous times , perhaps Nova have suggested a compromise and it has been rejected , perhaps DHSc countered back. Perhaps a cooling off period to contemplate counter offers. All takes time and as Lloyd said there is expectation of EOY by a certain date. There are many ways to resolve disputes, that often involve quite novel solutions that leave both parties satisfied and able to maintain a forward looking relationship.
Morningsun,
I totally agree with everything you said. I don't know if you've watched the Big Bang Theory. Basically it's 'anything can happen Thursday' or was it Tuesday? So many unknowns here:
- what is the legal dispute about ?
- why couldn't it be resolved?
- if the Q4 profits have to be revised, how much do they have to be revised by?
- what are 2021 forecasts?
- if we have 50% of our sales from the ROW, are these ongoing contracts or one-offs?
- is there ANYTHING that we can rely on (given that GM's announcement re. 2020 results need revising now)?
Despite all these unknowns, the rampers here were posting all day till market close, telling people to BUY BUY BUY. There were over 200 post by 8am! all of them ramping in such hurry that many of them even forgot the usual caveat 'IMO'. Despite so many rampers saying they bought xxxx shares and xxxxxx shares and the big buys by IIs, the share price has ended 4.72% down from Friday's sp. You have to wonder if they really were buying or 'pumping and dumping'. Why is it that Diamond Horse keeps thanking rampers for their 'pump & dump' on Twitter? See my earlier post for the link.
Given that none of the predictions that these rampers have assured us about (remember someone's insistence that the next RNS from BR would be an increase to 5% holding but turned out to be a reductions to 2.99% and another on its heel declaring reduction to 2.89%), why do people still believe anything they say? FOMO is an excellent motivator. All IMO.
Morning all I d just like to apologies to scardie cat on her private chat board(25 msgs last 14 hours) for reading all her essays including the criticism of the 20 rampers(I'd presume I'm included) who generally quote facts from company Rns's to support the company. I apologise again on their behalf for standing up to the derampers that have suddenly arrived on this board being as I'm actually invested here and actually trying to protect my investment.
You will now go to your status quo of telling me and others that I'm:we are bully's and you are the victim, then you take the biscuit by quoting Diamond Horse!!!!! good to see you pay so much attention to the posters history(said poster has been "shorting" Novacyt since 40P!!!!!! so they either have the biggest bank account in the world or are talking Tom kite)
So stop telling people to stop supporting the share it does happen occasionally on a bulletin board regards Wilson.
@ScardieCat
You are putting a heck of a lot of effort into discrediting this business.
Let me help clarify a few points for you:-
* There are a HIGH volume of Order/supply disputes every year with DHSC. The good news is that the contract includes a 28 day period to enter arbitration to resolve them. The majority are resolved in that period. It is Highly likely that NCYT and DHSC will resolve in that time phase.
* The statement said "May" revise not "Will" revise but, based on what we do know and what Novacyt have delivered the range will be between -23m and + 27m. There is a minimum contract value of £ 150m of which they haven't invoiced £ 27m of. So worst case scenario a £ 23m mark down in Q4 BUT frankly i don't see that being a reality. In fact it could well go the other way and DHSC settle the balance of what's due!!!
* You have seen the 2021 forecasts they have just been revised down following this adjustment. Circa £ 160m EBITDA and £200m Cash at Bank at the year end. I think its possible it could end up better than that due to the new product sales going live and being released this quarter. Including the next gen antibody and Antigen LFT products.
* ROW sales if a hospital Buys Gensig kit they will likely continue to buy reagents for it after (Razor blade effect) no guarantees of course but no guarantees someone buying a big mac and fries from Mcdonalds will buy another next week. I guess a lot of this comes down to if you think we will still need to test for this virus, how long this situation around the world will last for and if/ or Variants of Concern will still need checking on in the future or not. That's your call.
* I would say that GM is a VERY honest man with high integrity. I'm not sure he is a great spokesman for the business, PR has been fairly cr@p to be honest but they have never failed to deliver quality. They currently have the ONLY test that can detect ALL variants so they are doing some things right.
You keep mentioning this two bit shorter on Twitter, you don't know what shorting profits were made. He Probably did well shorting NCYT especially as the SP has halved in so many days from an already low base level. Its not 4.7%, the Share price has tanked lets be clear about that over 200m wiped. Now the question is can these shorter's squeeze anymore out of this from here??? or is it better to move onto another stock with more to go at? I would say the latter now. Share price is burnt out!!
Finally, i'm not sure if you are invested here or just posting to vent. My view would be if you are are shareholder and not happy you should sell, cut your losses. move to pastures new.
For me, i hold the stock and whilst i have had a royal stuffing with the SP recently, I still think there is a chance for GM to turn this around and i'm giving him until at least the H1 is out for him to prove that. Business is never easy, he has some current challenges but they are NOT insurmountable challenges. They can be resolved
@Wilson63
Its totally relentless frankly
There was a sustained shorting attack during business hours imo. I have never seen so many newbies posting here without any substance. Its probably three spotty guys in a room with four accounts each!!
Just, world falling in type posts "sell now, it will fall to 10P" or "I'm buying if t drops another £1" yada yada yada
We are Probably in for much of the same until further updates are issued. Although i'm surprised with the SP this low anyone still want =s to short this? Must be much more profitable targets to go at?, i can think for 5 or 6 off the top of my head!!
Anyhow, the bottom line for me is that there is now not that much more they can squeeze out of this now, its kind of do you worst scenario.
I'm not selling any of my stock at fire sale levels that's for sure, so either Novacyt get it right now and turn it around or the business is sold for best price, either way i will get my return. I'm certainly giving GM the chance to deliver having gone this far, even if i have to wait another year for it ...
Take care now..
Once I read a message from a shorter like this scardiecat I do not read any more as their intentions are clear. They are an attack on sentiment and this time an attack on any holder by accusing any holder of ramping.
I hope I am included in her 200. It would be rude not too. So if I am a ramper she is a deramper. The difference being I do not read what I believe to be rubbish posts.
Good morning all, wow I see Scardie has been busy spreading dissent and dissing those of us who might feel vaguely positive towards Novacyt! As you say Porks many have crept out of the woodwork to spread fear and to disrupt. Despicable really but there you go. Hopefully most will see through their one or two posts and immediately see their motive. Anytway, today is another day, lots to look forward to, lots to be positive about and if there is no news today, no matter. IT WILL COME IN THE COMING DAYS! GLA from D&D in a very sunny Suffolk