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Wilson that's not fair, I've never criticised Graham or anyone connected to novacyt. I do trade in general but when I sit on the sidelines I don't post as I don't feel it's right to contribute. I merely popped on last week to call out barnetpeter for his disgusting deramping.
Thanks to all those who shared candidly. It helps on a personal level. I did plenty of research and even Finncap took the contract for granted. I did not but didn’t expect a claim back from 2020. Never come across that before. I have no opinion either way as to its outcome.
So much is unknown and my 26 emails ( sent 4 more) all go unanswered.
So much here seems to go on blind trust-that concerns me. I absolutely do not trust the govt. as I have worked with them and the DHSC. Everything points positive re. the company but the share keeps dropping. What if there is indeed a material loss in Q4? Will that lead to another plummet? Or will it be a lingering in the Sargasso at £4 for months?
I very much enjoy reading those losing a lot who are optimistic.( Eg Hopeful) . It buoys me. But to me it’s ******* hard holding this loss. Lifestyle changing here.
My responsibility all the way yes of course.
Offensive people aside this is not a bad bunch of people to share with. The armchair warriors do exhibit their referred aggression as they don’t seem to like honesty..but there are plenty of green boxes to fill.
I am holding.
I have sold in desppair before. And lost.
This may come good or bad.
I do have faith in its fundamental work and innovation and it has no debt. But it is at the mercy of the market . And releases zero information. So it’s hard.
But covid cannot be extinguished. C-viruses don’t work like that. Travel will rely on testing. No borders will likely open and we will not have full travel without a rigorous screening system in place ( as retina/fingerprint in US) .
So I do not believe in quick fixes. Disappointed too many times. I personally am looking into next year and beyond. I can’t see a private investor-share that has dropped this far on loss of contract shooting back up in a rush. Staying real.
A big thanks to the uplifting positive and considered posts and posters. Support and sound information are important.
I may have got out at £5.50 in one account and £5 in the other but I still saw hefty profits disintegrate and crystalised and at no point did I come on here voicing my frustrations.
@crl123,
You mention ' But to me its ******* hard holding this loss. Lifestyle changing here.
Could you explain why the present situation is lifestyle changing for you at the moment.
I may have a bit more sympathy for you if that's truly the case as I do appreciate also that you take FULL responsibility so maybe any negativity towards others may not be really warranted.
Harchris
Roll with it.
I envy your shareholding position but as I see it you have done no wrong.
I am constantly the target of arrows and that is the nature of a public board.
It doesn’t mean the archer is correct.
I would say the same if it were you attacking the archer.
Roll withbit mate.
Your posts are fine.
I just wish I were in your shareholding boots!!!
Oh and there is nothing wrong with voicing frustrations. If someone doesn’t like it it is their problem.
I always find that those who have most frustrations have the highest expectations.
Maybe its better to hope for the best, lower the expectations and any improvements will come as a pleasant or even wonderful surprise.
I’m holding out for the 1 day MACD to cross. There is a lot of ramping going on at the moment which just creates disappointment amongst the shareholders when they invest and it doesn’t come to fruition. GGG was saying £70 a share and then sells out just before a profit warning and less than a week later you have Tay and porky saying that we’ve just won a 3 billion contract!! When what’s actually happened is we have lost our exclusive contract of supply and are now having to compete with 141 other companies. The RNS also said they have enough supply for the rest of the year so it’s not likely to see further revenues from NHS this year. That’s not being negative. That is what we have been told.
I want to be sure momentum has changed back. At the moment it’s in a downtrend and it could easily slide further especially if shorters start ramping the potential worst case scenarios. I don’t think this will happen till we get clarity on some sales figures beyond nhs contracts.
Hydra, Nobody said we had won a 3 billon contract. The only product the DHSc may have enough of is Promate and that is entirely dependent on what happens as we move through the phases of resuming some new normality. The new normality will be test test test, before events , before travel , before elective surgery. Fantastic company , brilliants products , fast to market and will continue to hold adding when I can. Role on resolution and lets get this show on the road. K
Well I have us currently 120m cash, plus estimate earnings this year of 175m (that excludes dhsc and assumes zero sales for snpsig, which will make it higher). So cash plus less than 1 year's earnings = current mcap lol. If that's not value then I don't know what is
International travel.
The big obstacle.
No way to ease it without bl**dy rigorous tests and filters. We have only just started.
That’s why I’m giving this at least a year to recover. Nothing in place yet. It’s a new market.
The competition is a pain yes.
But do we think Ncyt are not active exploring these markets??
Their biggest failure is abject lack of communication. Not acceptable by any means. We do not have a clue what is going on even if Q2 update was promised. Will it come??
26 emails sent!! Very poor.
Don’t want to be too negative so I shall leave in a cloud of not knowing but hoping the loss does not widen.
About time we had normal regular communication.
GM is losing a lot -not nice-but he can afford it. Not right to compare us to him.
Novacyt....get off your *** and communicate IN DETAIL.
Like Hopeful I am aware of the mental health effect on some people ( I am one) and I’m sure it is happening.
26 emails unanswered. Poor.
I sing Ncyt’s technological strengths.
But they are hiding their face.
Earth70000
Harchris is wrong. You have every justification to say what you said. It was even mentioned here by 2 people who were not criticised for it at all because they supported GM's stance. Why else would GM or his team not answer any of the very many emails? As another one of GM's fans put it, he didn't have to give 3 lots of bad news in one go, especially as he had already told us about a 'uncertain future' back in January and knew what effect it had on the sp.
A lot of the recent posts here are beyond logic, such as people saying that the institutional investors are lining their pockets with our shares because the sp so low. But, where is the evidence? If the IIs are falling over themselves to buy Nova shares which are now at bargain basement prices, why does the sp keep going down instead of going up or at least, stay even? I think the IIs want to wait a bit more until all or most private investors sell their shares at which point the sp will probably be around £2.
I don't deny that they are buying SOME shares but the movement of the sp suggest that they may be keeping some, but dumping even more on the market for the sp to go down even further.
May I ask a simplistic question? I note that Blackrock own Novacyt shares in three separate Funds. Could one fund sell down shares, in order to force the SP DOWN so that one of the other "separate" Funds could load up, always ensuring that no one Fund crosses the 3% share level, and then "rinse and Repeat" ad nauseum.? If true ,then this share is entirely at their mercy, and their genius manipulators deserve to rot in that place reserved for parasites.
That is a good question Lui, and one I've also pondered. I believe they do, case in point there multiple rns' around the 3% level on one fund. I'd be very surprised if they hadn't used the rns triggers deliberately on the last round of them to facilitate some arbitrage on their portfolio. Mute point now though as all below 3%.
Bluelight
You're totally right. Do you remember the movement from 3.2% to 3% to 2.99% the back to 3% and then 2.81% - all to throw doubt on the company? Typical MM games.
Someone on the Argo board earlier asked 'can the p/e realistically go any lower if debt-free?!' as the share price fell to around a projected p/e of 9. Ahem, quite a bit lower my friend!
The last 56 posts have summed the situation up perfectly. Yes...GM is complicit. Sorry but I see no other alternative. Blackrock have it sussed. They don’t need a high price to make active money btw!!! Not at all. Watch it being played. I see it all the time in traded shares. We need a high er price. They don’t . It’s algoed. So clear. Seen it so often. It’s how the markets work.
I take back nothing about Nov’s scientifis wizardry. This is money. And the manipulation of it. Said it for months. Since first RNS. These rns’s are not ‘par hasard’ ( French for accidental.)
I have always said I believe that ii’s and/or the company want p/i’s out. I hypothesise it again.
And the s/p is not going down by accident or because of sells!! More buys than sells today.
We are in a spider’s web of manipulation and-dare I say-deceipt.
Believe what you want.
I have seen it so many times. This time is quite complex though . Still the same dynamics.
Sit out in sheer dogma.
Or give your shares away as they want.
Lecture over.
Bluelight with regards to your valuation. If you pretend for a minute that you are a shorter and you don’t like the stock you can do a different calculation that’s much worse. Let’s say your right and we have 130 now with another 90 or so to be delivered this year. What can approximately 200 million buy you? Maybe a 20 million revenue business? That’s 28eps. Apply a pe of let’s say 10 and that’s a share price of £2.80. At this point you have spent your cash acquiring the business and if it’s a good growth business then maybe we double the pe to 20 £5.60 a share.
Yes if your positive on the stock you’ll say that’s ridiculous and I understand ( there are lots of positives for us to be excited about) but without any visibility on sales all we know is that earnings are declining, vaccines deploying, sentiment is low. This is why I will wait for macd to confirm sentiment has changed, before then we are in a downtrend and the market likes to test ones resolve beyond what is reasonable.
Check out the charts for the previous three major peaks and you’ll see when the macd on the 1 day crosses, the momentum shifts and the share price goes on its run.
A short can do whatever valuation they like, it matters not to me what they come out with. All I care about is my own valuation, as it is my own money I am investing with. Frankly anyone who takes positions based on other people's price forecasts either high or low is a fool. Should only ever invest based on personal convictions and analysis.
crl123, I don't want to name names. My last post was mysteriously deleted for no offence. But, if you're asking, I can only say that BR have form in this area.
But, it's not doom and gloom. I wouldn't be worth my hourly rate if I didn't have a solution. It would help if I had some support for that solution, but even if I don't, I'm going to do what's needed because as a Responsible Person (with capital R and P), I have a duty to call out fraud where I see it, and report it to the proper authorities.
Rest assured, if we don't get the right price for our shares, I will go above and beyond to get it, especially if they're BR because right now they are being sued by another lot of shareholders in the US and we can offer them help in return for their help for us.
Also, due to the Greensill fiasco, the FCA will have to bend backwards to satisfy me with a thorough examination and if they don't I'll go to the papers and make a racket.
Timing is on our side. It's as though someone is watching over us. I didn't choose my moniker for nothing.
Bluelight.
A home truth mate. Ticked that up.
No that's plainly wrong Hydr. IT-IS for example cost £10m and generated £5m revenue and was profitable. There will be hundreds, maybe thousands of private companies in the space that have huge potential but lack the funds to reach profitability etc
It is true that this investment comes with considerable executional risk and at this point is very much an investment in Graham and the board but only a monumental **** up could cause shareholder value to decline from here...
Blue light I was just making the point that this share has been extremely hard to value. When sentiment has been positive I could see how porky derived his £54 and now sentiment is low I can also see potential for negative valuations too. But one good thing to remember is shorters can only ever make 100% but going in long there is no ceiling. So time will win out and shorters will close or burn!!