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-£100m min cash held in bank = £180m. Entire company valued at this years forecasted turnover.
Nuts
What % of that turnover ends up as profits?
Circa 80% now. Was closer to 65% when working with the DHSC.
Not sure if I should buy now or wait until sp works its way back up to £11.
Mr big gross 80% bottom line over 50%
Do we know what was the problem with test kits? Have there been reports of them being substandard, unused or unusable?
We have taken revenue figures are fully earned and now discovered the DHSC has a problem with what was sold. Instead of counting money as in the bank we ought to get a feel for the extent of the problem. Is it 100% of all sales, 20%, only sales of produce from one source? Did the DHSC stop using test kits? What was different about test kits sold Sep - Jan compared to those sold before when Primer Design reputation was built Apr-June?
There's no issue with the test kits, any issues with regards to quality would have been rectified.
The RNS says test kit was delivered as per request - 'Novacyt announced a second supply contract with the DHSC for exsig® COVID-19 Direct kits and other products. In the full year trading update announced on 29 January 2021, Novacyt explained it was in active discussions with the DHSC regarding an extension of the supply contract. Unfortunately, an extension has not been agreed, although the Company supplied PROmate™ in Q1 2021 in accordance with DHSC demand'
I dont see that there was an issue with the test kit provided and leaves me to believe there is something else to this
I saw a post on twitter from a Lab Manager back in Dec that commented about "the milkshakes curdle" about the Primer Design - meaning that something went wrong with the tests he ran (IMO). I messaged him to ask him very politely what it meant saying that I was an investor and interested in what he meant. He didn't reply & after poidster's contributions here I've had in mind that the kits worked but might have been too fiddly for lab managers to deliver the projected numbers on top of their existing workload -i.e. problem being more man/machine than chemical/reagents.
The market would factor in uncertainty as widely in absence of confirmation otherwise which seems to be happening in the SP but it would be useful for us to know if the test kits are beyond the scope of the dispute or not. Or whether there is reputational damage concerning the product to over come as well as the resolution of the dispute.
I don't get it. How can their product go from trusted supplier in Sep to failing in Jan? It could be quality failed during the volume, or machines could not be used as envisaged so contractual failure there for some reason. It would make a big difference when eventually they do set a scope to the dispute or have it resolved. At the moment, I put their failure to specify the extent of contractual dispute down to the poor communication & financial practice the company has generally but perhaps it helps mask their issues.
Its a shame this lets the business down as it has when they seemed so uniquely talented in doing the really difficult stuff so well.
I have seen on other shares where there was a poor RNS, without the usual careful sugaring of a bad RNS with at least something good, and without hiding the bad news in the middle of an RNS packed out with other almost irrelevant words, that the directors later turned out to have bought some shares after the very poor RNS. I think an example of this from memory was Sound Energy in late 2016 or early 2017. If at any stage from 9th April to the next good RNS, key board members of NCYT turn out to have bought more shares, I'll rest my case. It was too "unleavened".
I expect you all saw the undercover TV documentary last week or two of the PCR testing lab where workers were filmed under cover ignoring known cross-pollution of adjacent cells and just ploughing on to meet management targets, at one lab. No idea whose PCR tests they were. It was a sloppy lab issue really.
AGAIN REPEAT TRUTOBUYLOW , the DHSC bought , infact loaded up with sufficient to last the year ( if cases remain low) so you know full well no problem with PROmate or the Q machines. Off you trot with total misinformation. Blimey
Kaeren - Vent your aggression all you want but it is misplaced. I'm heavily into this. there was an RNS with bad news. I've tried to make an honest understanding of it. I took it that this is what this board is for.
I didn't see the tv last week
it just doesn't help us to attack each other when we read something we don't like in this situation, its painful
Not being at all aggressive no problem with tests the govt have loaded up . TV?
The problem at the moment as we have no idea what is going on. What is the contract disagreement revolve around, what value. What are we tendering for, what is our future plan and future targets. What are all the new staff being hired for. There are a million and one questions, and we have no answers. It is incredibly difficult to say what the price should be as there are so many missing pieces that go a long way to forming the valuation. It is in Novacyts hands and its ability to provide some of these pieces on info and yet it chooses not to. Baflfing communications from them, utterly baffling.
Agree. Full disclosure I'm not currently invested here having sold out on Friday in the 500s. I want to buy back in but it feels even more of a gamble with so much uncertainty still surrounding the company.
There really needs to be an rns first thing tomorrow morning with more detail or I see the share price falling into the 3s in the short term. There is every chance buying back in now or topping up will lead to healthy returns but like many others I'm sitting on the sidelines until there's more clarity or simply the share price is too low not to have a punt on.
It’s not baffling. It’s only baffling to shareholders because the share price is so micro managed by retail investors. Personally I feel that the only reason this disagreement has come out is because of the value and the effect it will have on pre reported q4 figures. Otherwise a contract loss is not fundamental to the running of the business and actually does not have to be reported. The more info the company put in the public domain the more they will have to correct in a fluid sales environment, so why would they? If you believe in the company hold. But don’t hold for a hostile takeover. I have only ever seen 1 in 15 years and it was a good pump but it wasn’t what everyone was holding for. Also everyone ****ging off GM, probably need to see that his tenacity got you to the value of your wealth and holding in the first instance. Those buying at 1200 should probably be better researched when it comes to Mcap, but there is fantastic value at this price, let them get on with their jobs.
Telling me to trot off seems aggressive enough, as a LTH I don't have anywhere to trot off too, thanks. Many contributions closed off over the last few months for not being bullish enough with the contributors being told they can filter retaliation when they don't like it. That might be okay for some if the SP hadn't been significantly revised away from the bullish.
As it is, closure of discussion & the information that people haven't bother to put because of the censorial climate doesn't help us understand what the position with the DHSC has been or what prospects exactly are.
It would be much better to state an explanation so we can gauge in reasonably inclusive dialogue whether this dispute comes from a genuine underlying widescale issue, a political move by Grant Shapps to lower prices, a failure in co-dependencies, or whatever it is. The problem Kaeren is we may have people with information & expertise that just don't supply it.
TV?
Another contributor Paolo111 mentioned a TV report - I'll copy it here - it does seem more plausible that a generic problem with tests that worked until Sep IMO & it would be worth a legal view of how/if the contract demarks liability on this score.
"I expect you all saw the undercover TV documentary last week or two of the PCR testing lab where workers were filmed under cover ignoring known cross-pollution of adjacent cells and just ploughing on to meet management targets, at one lab. No idea whose PCR tests they were. It was a sloppy lab issue really."
So you are not confused about expected earnings this year, or expected sales this year (not talking 2025, but this year). Are you also not baffled about what the contract disagreement is about? Are you telling me you are sitting there having seen the share price fall from £12 to £4, with the information that has been made available to us by the company, and do not consider their communication to be lacking in content, and that you have thorough knowledge of this years expectations? I find it downright remarkable people defend the communication and blame it on retail investors wanting more info, when even the brokers can't forecast because they dont know whats going on! It's unacceptable communication, defend it all you want but someones head is on the block here. I doubt Blackrock and the other major funds are going to sit quietly having lost tens of millions!
As a company we have excelled in innovation and adaptation, but equally as a company we have failed in communication and self promotion. Now luckily the latter is easily fixable with the right people in place, the former much harder to replicate. We will be fine in the long run, but until we get some clear details on the issues, and the opportunities we will continue to be solely at the mercy of sentiment, and right now thats only going one way. It's going to create opportunities for sure, but we need some real positive info/update from the company, otherwise this drop wont stop in the near term.
No I’m not concerned by the fall from £12 in the slightest as I don’t value novacyt as a £12 company. I was distinctly unimpressed when the company feel from £5 to £2 on the warrant sales last year. I also think there will be a bug fear of loss for people selling out from higher positions ans people holding, seeing their portfolio half and selling out of fear. But you also have to consider this in future price movements and for me this has been overdone based on what has happened to the company over the last 12 months.
I’m well aware of how accounts work. Cheers for checking though.
Please direct me to a company that issues an rns about every concern of a PI? Weekly sales updates? Contract wins and losses? Just imagine.... if the DHSC contract wasn’t announced to the market would they have had to say the contract was pulled?? Did they say why the contract was won in the first instance? May shed more light as to why it’s not being extended?? The wormhole of communication is- it’s like heroin, the more they give the more we expect. You don’t see BATS, AZN etc updating the market with every concern of a pi and if I’m being brutally honest, if they did not send out contract wins, dominating country after country, would the SP have got to £12? Now there is another question....
I think you are willfully ignoring the communication failures there... Whilst i agree not every contract, and every PI concern should be addresed by the board, I also believe that as a company you should at least know what your target revenues are and sales estimates in the current year of trading. We are nearly in May and we still have no guide to 2021, show me a single company that provides no guidance even within year, just one example... I don't want to know every 100k contract win, I do want to know a £10m contract win, e.g. Ukraine. As we stand that 10m in nearly 4% of our mcap, that is materially significant. How many others are there of similar sizes, which countries are the sales coming from? We do not know, however that is clearly more and more important the lower the mcap.
Can anybody explain to a thick o like me oddo's 4.10 is not so far off the cash we are roughly predicted to have in bank by end of year?!!!seems strange.
Try2buylow the programme you mention was discussed extensively on here last week and it was a private not for profit concern that seems to have had ongoing issues, NOT US, hope that helps.
It’s not a standard sales market though is it? It is literally that fluid, it must be a month on month and the DHSC clearly are betting on the vaccine beating the virus in the Uk. It’s why government does. Muppets. But even asos said they don’t have a target and don’t know what the quarter/ year will hold ahead. Off the back of the best results ever.