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if you were a large pharmo and you knew about the WHO contract and the NHS contract and you were a Global Company because the NHS contract i think will be replicated around the world you must be thinking if we could buy a company that you could incorporate into your business what would you pay. What is the total Global market worth in testing? Or what licencing agreement could be done? I know its would be more then 260p? IMHO
Agreed Bramley. The conversations must be taking place. Probably have been for some time, but current global outlook on testing has got to have added an extra element of urgency to any such discussions.
With recent developments i personally think any potential investor(s) have been put on hold. If anyone is in the running to take us over then i think its most likely AZ. The company are diagnostics specialists who are a big step ahead of their competitors in this multi billion pound market. Why discuss a T/O now for c.£500m(ish) when you can 2-3 times that in 12 months if you can nail some major contracts on some new innovative products?
I wouldn't be surprised at all if a takeover bid was announced in the near future. NCYT is ripe for a big pharma given the mobile testing aspect especially.
Hi fali, wasn't suggesting that it will happen, just that the conversations must be taking place. If I were on the acquisition trail for such a company, logic would suggest that I move now, or not at all. Probably won't happen, but if were to then I'd suggest it would be soon and at a value that could be very tempting to NCYT.
Agread Usain, I wasn't looking at it from a seller's point of view, but from a buyers. Buying at a premium now could be a hell of a lot cheaper than paying market value in 12 months. Just my opinion.
I agree in the sense that it makes perfect sense for AZ to buyout now rather than later. It is a perfect opportunity for the biggest pharma in the UK to acquire the best diagnostics company. The future value would be much greater than any acqusition price. As they have such a close working relationship i wouldnt be surprised if they they have set some prior conditions for nova to meet.
So depending on where you would pitch it here is the mcap based on 71m shares. If i was GM i would be saying 1b
just my opinion. These figures just show how undervalued we are
regards
Bramley1967
Market cap Share price
£142,000,000 £2.00
£184,600,000 £2.60
£248,500,000 £3.50
£284,000,000 £4.00
£319,500,000 £4.50
£355,000,000 £5.00
£390,500,000 £5.50
£426,000,000 £6.00
£461,500,000 £6.50
£479,250,000 £6.75
£497,000,000 £7.00
£532,500,000 £7.50
£568,000,000 £8.00
£639,000,000 £9.00
£710,000,000 £10.00
£781,000,000 £11.00
£781,000,000 £11.00
£852,000,000 £12.00
£923,000,000 £13.00
£994,000,000 £14.00
£1,065,000,000 £15.00
£1,136,000,000 £16.00
£1,207,000,000 £17.00
£1,278,000,000 £18.00
£1,349,000,000 £19.00
£1,420,000,000 £20.00
Bram - one of the most sensible and exciting posts i've seen this week!!
My view would be more conservative, somewhere between £10 and £15 a share, but that would be if they moved fast. Twelve months time, anybody's guess.....
Again, if I were AZ, I'd actually move before these potential contracts were signed and try to grab a bargain. Bank on belief that I'm likely to get a larger share of the pie as AZ, rather than a collaboration with NYCT. They certainly wouldn't get a smaller slice, that's for sure.
But then, I ain't AZ and I have no idea what conversations are taking place......if only an investor's life was so simple!
If I were sitting in the AZ board room, I'd be arguing for our broker to hoover up every NYCT share share I could at this price. Think it's going to break out soon......and without hard numbers to back it up yet. Lovely.
So you keep saying seadoc. Seem very active today. Maybe you should have closed all of it at the low. Only got your word on the short so who knows
I was expecting the shorters to appear getting worried now!
I believe seadoc he has been consistent and honest as far as i can see.For example captain stanley used to come on this bb deriding the company all the time his comments were all over the place and could never backup what he was saying.seadoc is nothing like that
I don't think there is anything to worry about from a shorter when he incorrectly thinks one company is going to get the whole £5 billion lol and then thinks he will be happy with 10% (£500 million) lol. Trying to raise expectations unrealistically to kick people later it's the games they play. We only need a fraction of the £5 billion as we are an international company and have other customers to satisfy as well.
I'd like to see a takeover offer, not accepted by NCYT. The SP would match the offer and that would be our new support base. It's all looking good. GLA.
Thanks for your words of wisdom, Seadoc.
Not ramping, it's just an opinion.
Just like, if I were short here, I'd get out quick.
seadoc lol you are either completely bonkers or a complete liar
Seadoc your point is valid to a degree and I don't see AZN itching to buy ncyt. But if you really still have half your short open it's obvious you must be getting nervy. You tried your hardest earlier to play down the news on the government spending plans but a £200m mcap company likely to have a significant slice of a £5bn pie... well let's just say it's no surprised you've popped up today!
At this rate we have the potential to reach £10 without a takeover. By my rough estimates our p/e at year end turnover and profits could be in the very low single digits. If I'm correct on that and ShaunP has done the sums also then the market will re-rate in due course anyway.
Seadoc is a very knowledgeable and eloquent poster, enjoy reading his opinion. Hoping he is wrong regarding the short though :-)
Shorters are out as they are worried, they are about to have their pants pulled down...
Seadoc- i respect you for being honest medical man .
Do you still think this share price is going to see lows as before?? if not where abouts ou see these approx