The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Well is not because we are short, its because everything that was supposed to be said has been said.
We don’t have our lunch money invested here as most of the ling holders have cosiderable
Not sure a couple of pence rise is exactly rerate cause celebre but nice to see it green for a change on a poor market day!
For two days in a row this share is CURRENTLY "on the up" and sanity is returning.
yet all our posters are "Silent" which makes you wonder how many of them are "shorting" the stock
we have just a single post attributed to this stock.
Last i saw it was supposedly Sept for BoE and Dec for Fed. used to be June and May respectively.
Yep well those boys are on the vino from open. I just waited till end of play. Seriously though, if the Cosmens want this business they (and advisors) will review every trick in the book to minimise their outlay.
Rates will not go up. However, there’s rethinking in terms of when reductions will start and that thinking seems to have clearly moved to some time beyond summer.
I can't see interest rates rising with a general election round the corner. Was just watching the news and talk about making buses under public ownership again would not be such a bad thing of were losing money. Either that or get some backbone come January and increase those prices 25%. We'll see if the new CFO has any.
I've seen a number of comments on here suggesting interest rates are going to rise again. My understanding is it's all down from current level. Just a matter of when & by how much!
I'd expect that on an AIM tin pot claiming to have to discovered an oilfield to rival BP & Exxon under a Yukka tree in Timbuktu!
Well is can be said of a lot of companies. All a matter of which ones will turn the corner and fly and those that will corner with the grace and pace of an oil tanker.
Anyway, been looking at shorts across the board and I’d say MW are viewing debt size and risk against a rate environment which will be higher for longer. Much more relaxed on that front as feared it could be around RIs down the road which I’d say is the only (and slight) risk to this ticker.
I have no idea of the rules around such but if I was the Cosmens, I’d be pushing for a highly dilutive RI which you’d underwrite. Sort of like running a stealth mode share capture! Would flush out any retail who can’t double down.
Look at the positives. Due to Garat you can buy more shares at these daft prices & make loads more when a proper CEO comes in!
Smokey, My own view is Garat is probably a dead man walking. Overseeing a 6 fold constant decline in SP over 3 years is just abysmal but they need a succession plan in place rather than just show him the door. Nice to see this up a bit today. Looks like these are getting well bought up at these levels. Probably see the shorts decrease this week like at DOCS.
To give the stock price a boost Ignacio Garat needs to go and his successor announced on the same day. We need a new team at the top now, a team that have the knowhow and don't blame macro conditions when the slightest bit of pressure comes on them. Share price has been falling nearly 2 years. Stamp going with some of the old team still there is not good enough. That man needs too be shown the door ASAP.
HV - thanks for the HSBC numbers, they are more where I would be if not being so pessimistic. I went particularly conservatively on the valuations of US and UK, especially US given the current low margin recovery but would agree with the HSBC number if profits return as expected for 2025.
My understanding was also that 50% of the Hybrid equity was priced into the overall debt numbers at £1.2xB with the remaining £250k coming in 2025/26? I hadn't factored an admin cost so useful to consider thanks.
So I think the numbers still stack up.
Maybe another 1% increase in stake from the Cosmens then will get pushed down tommorow by the shorts ?
Come on , now we are motoring and going back to 60p-80p very soon.
Time to climb on board.
It would be reassuring to see some large director purchases. Recent buys from Simon Callendar & the Cosmen affiliates, why no others? It might begin to restore some confidence & change the sentiment here if they were to do so. SP could certainly do with a boost. Anyway good luck with your investment here, hope it fares better than mine.
Hi Folks - sorry have not been on the board for a while as I keep a keen eye on MCG (and some other shares). I have bought some more today as hopefully we have hit the bottom. With elections coming up in UK and USA I can see interest rates coming down and hopefully profits up here at MCG! I do believe it makes sense to hold off on the US sale as they are not in dire straits and getting a much higher price is in all of our interests in the longer term - am quite confident here that this share will generally be in an upward trajectory soon and hopefully we will all see over a pound in the near future!! GLA
You are right, apologies…misread it
Where is the hybrid detailed in the FY update, wasn't listed under treasury management or where all the borrowing is listed?
Not that I want to speak for Wealth, but I thought it was quite clear; using the value of ALSA specifically to account for the cost of debt.
Wealth…according to your calculations the share price of Mobico would be negative….you gotta account for net debt of ~1.2bn, hybrid of 500mio, other liabilities 250mio…so u need almost 2bn to arrive at a sp of 0
HSBC sees the value roughly as
Uk 440
Spain 1500
Na 1130
Admin -240
Thanks Laralara, that was it.
JG68
IMO it was related to government concessions related to travel pass. I remember CFO replied it will take time to legislate and and possibly until 2026.
Someone Please correct if I couldn’t understand well.
Exactly wealthtransfer
In Alsa they have one of the best transport businesses in Europe imo.
The sum of the parts does not justify this valuation, sentiment and management does.
Also they probably have 12-18 months to start thinking about the Hybrid don't they, if maturity is 27-31?
By which time NA sale aside rates are hopefully likely to be lower.
Do you recall what the analyst was asking about re Alsa concessions ending possibly next year, couldn't quite grasp what they referred to and if there could be an impact to Alsa then ?
Anyone else think it would make sense to bring German Rail into ALSA rather than under UK bus. ALSA looking at rail contracts in Spain, also possible future tie up with Evolyn?
Better management and better understanding of the European transport industry/network.