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Paddyboy1: For every example of a RR, there are many, many others, where profits would have vanished with a buy and hold approach over the same period.
But I am sure there are some RR holders who are sitting on a nice core holding/free carry right now, who also de-risked along the way. Probably a good many who are finally in profit or B/E as long suffering HODL'ers from 2013.
But yeah, easy to say. Less easy to do, or we would all be sitting at the top table of Davos :)
Absolutely, Pokerchips. I know that I myself sometimes come across as quite bearish on these chat boards, but when I am long, I am always trying to find potential threats or weaknesses to the bull case.
Madness not to when you have cold hard cash on the line, IMO.
Notwithstanding occasional white knight efforts on others that I have turned extremely bearish on, for one reason or another. Especially some of the micro caps from time to time.
Anyway, JG - it is worth doing some research into technical trading. Start with the very basics. Heaps of material on youtube and elsewhere.
Cannot remember which source I first started with, but I finally opened my mind to it (after initially thinking it was all BS) after seeing another poster repeatedly calling accurate SP targets over and over again on one particular stock.
Be warned though: there is an unreal amount of technical indicators and theories out there. My advice would be to keep it very simple and build your knowledge at a pace that works for you.
Then, do some fantasy trading using technical indicators alone. Any stock you want. See how you go. That is what I did to begin with (well, I used real money from the start, but stuck with stocks that I was already familiar with).
Not entirely sure it works as effectively with micro caps as large caps, although that could just be me not being very good at it yet :)
Oh, and it is never 100% certain either, it is a game of probabilities. So never go all in based on TA.
Based on what you have shared with us over some time here, if I was in your position, I would take your recent purchase off the table if/when mid 60's hit. Nice profit on that tranche, reduced risk and you might get the chance to repeat the trick down the line too. If the SP does not retrace, then you might have sacrificed some profit for less downside risk. The way it is.
But only an idea, as you know, your money your choice etc.
Same will happen here i suspect. The majority will bail at B/E or small profit. that's the time to hold & reap the rewards after all the pain!
People would have doubled their money selling Rolls Royce at 150. Are they happy now with hindsight?
I guess what I meant paddyboy, if I was more clued up on the chart / resistance malarkey, I would possibly have been able to trade my way out of trouble. So a simpleton PI such as myself has only 3 options, hold period, average down when appropriate or sell out whatever the cost.
JG if hindsight was an option in this gig we'd all be millionaires!
" And not being afraid to admit when you are wrong,.."
yes.... once you make a buy, ideally, you should always then assume that you are wrong ..... so that you are ready to take quick and immediate action when that proves to be the case .... !!
Am i right then to say on a TA basis this is a sell at 65 because the covid low (66) will be a resistance?
Not sure how this TA stuff has any credibility on this stock. Been hearing about bullish/bearish divergence etc etc here since this was over 120. None of the analysis has been reflected in the traction of the SP at all!
'The preferred option' would be to have a realistic contract whereby MCG/NEX actually turn a profit. This is a commercial organisation not a political potato!
Hindy I'm biding my time, trying a few demos like you suggested, thinking about whether to try with a largish chunk I'm down on in my ISA, or a completely fresh batch.
Hindsight, was so closed to taking a chunk off at 90 , could have bought almost 80 for the 50 I sold.
Just watching right now, and got acceptance if I do nothing , fingers crossed worst case 12-18 months longer.
Hence no moaning!!
" West Midlands. IMO West Midlands needs MCG/NEX far more than MCG needs them. "
no company gets in a confrontation with government like that . The preferred option is to establish "dialogue", thats why Andy Street seems to be a good guy for NEX
Should be an interesting week here next week. This now returned where it was pre results a larger declared short. They won't be wanting this above 60. Probably a battle between Cosmens & the hedge funds atm
Totally agree, Hindy. Too many successful technical traders out there for it to be false, IMO.
Although I do not entirely rely on TA myself. For a start, still far too much of a greenhorn with it.
My performance since starting to use it in deliberations though has improved considerably, compared to before, where I just did the research, focused on fundamentals etc, bought and held.
But as I always say, it is about finding a method that works best for you.
And not being afraid to admit when you are wrong, or even worse, failing to try and keep on learning new things to make you a better trader or investor.
As an aside, and not this particular one, I have no idea why some on these anon chat boards always try to make out like they bought at the bottom and sold at the top....a long time after the event. Like anyone cares, lol :)
Take this for example where it reclaimed 55.3
(That bit circled) notice the first time it popped through 55.30 it came down but wasn’t able to hold on it fell back through now when it fell back through it didn’t bounce of the underneath either it was able to reclaim 55.30 55.30 just had its head sticking through then notice the next candle it bounces of it that’s it reclaiming/breaking out then it should attack the next key area which is 59.5 notice how it’s started slowing down now we’re approaching it. You have to see how it reacts to that now will it breakout or reject it. It’s about finding these magical places what have meaning
https://ibb.co/D8w6nNt
Ta doesn’t work? Whaaaaaat 😂 try tell that to all the people on trading floors around the world, the pi’s the ii’s,hedge funds, retail investors/traders just because you don’t know how to read a chart doesn’t mean nobody else does. It’s one the most important tools for the job people use it for a reason. If you was going to be a fireman would you go out to work with a a water pistol? Or turn up to build a house with a bag of cement and a trowel? No you need the right tools and this is no different.
Jg I hope you put your lines on, you have the right mentality to succeed your willing to learn and evolve! Don’t be one of these stubborn people who thinks they know it all and you’ll do well.
In a world where lambs get slaughtered…be a wolf
Re: West Midlands. IMO West Midlands needs MCG/NEX far more than MCG needs them. Come January either negotiate a proper, watertight profit making contract or walk away. This company is not a benevolent fund!
Why will this stock never return to normality? Presume you mean it is being manipulated for whatever reasons?
TA: Yes, historic stuff can provide resistance and support points of course. Then you have a huge amount of other indicators to play with too. All of which provide probabilities for direction of travel etc. That is not relevant to fundamentals though.
LOL!!! TA is acutely based on how stocks perform in past and general conditions. It literally had no use here as this stock will never return to normality. Its being moved by abnormal and inorganic means now.
You should know this to be honest!
Uncharted in the context that this SP has never been down at these levels so resistance & support levels have no historical context to go on.
My TA skills are not strong enough for me to swear by them, so will not try to argue the point.
Not sure how we are in uncharted territory though. We have a bunch of negative company updates, and uncertainties, on top of macro stuff that could also be negative for the company for the time being.
No significant inside buying either...but then we have the Cosmans's scenario.
Oh, and I have just seen that shorts have increased here too. Including M Wace, who I do not like seeing in one of mine (and seem to be in a few of mine currently!)
Anyway, back to the red wine and no more posting from me tonight :) Good weekend all.
I'm not sure TA is of much relevance in this share. The SP is in uncharted territory!
Fair enough. Mobico will have my full support if the local politicians try to screw us in any future negotiations, and the BOD stand firm against this.
We already seem to get a bad deal from UK operations as it is. Price hikes and cost cutting remains a necessity. No more compromises and no baksheesh either. Drain the swamp :)
Up again today despite another short increase. Probably another Cosmen load up! Following the same trajectory as DOCS did.
I am an investor. My investment here remains (underwater).
And TA is not a lagging indicator of the fundamentals. In theory and more generally, good fundamentals will eventually play out. That is a totally different kettle of fish to technical trading.
And final point - I was clear that my side pot trade sale here was not based on technicals - TA right now here (IMO) suggested more upside.