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I looked a bit more into the 500mio hybrid…this will need to get refinanced by November 2025 at much higher rates…current spread for hybrids over a corporate bond is around 2.4%…so as it stands the yield would be around likely 7.5-8%…in line with HSBC forecast of an additional 20mio annual cost…if not called, Mobico would lose the 50% equity component…
“However, Mobico will lose the 50% equity credit on its GBP500 million hybrids from 2026 onwards, because Fitch deems the first coupon step-up date in February 2031 as the effective maturity date. If not refinanced with another hybrid bond ahead of that, then the equity credit of 50% would change to 0% five years before the effective maturity date, leading to higher leverage, as per Fitch's criteria.”
As long as it’s only money you can afford to potentially lose then it’s your choice.. This isn’t going anywhere unless there’s a buy out. Huge loss of confidence over the years, too little too late now.
Https://www.mobicogroup.com/investors/results-reports-and-presentations/2024/
No, for me the shorting is an opportunity here & i'm going to buy again next week if the drop is sustained. I see this turning before too long & this price level is just too tempting to miss out on as i see it. Might regret it but well i'm going to get 3 shares for what i paid for one share originally. My mistake was buying then but buying at 50p odd will reward well i'm sure
Can you send a link for presentation ?
The shorters here have often been a prelude to a leg down in the sp. Unfortunately more often right than wrong with this share. Probably the likely FTSE250 expulsion a factor in their increase. Hopefully nothing else, right?
Will do Paddy. Everything just seems to be against us at the moment and while we can chat all day on here that this is a good company which don't get me wrong it sure is, it just needs a change in direction and innovation. Shorts are just playing mind games, ones that have held this long won't fall for their tricks !
That is exactly what the shorters prey on: Weary PIs selling their shares at huge losses. When the panic selling stops & people realise the longer term value, the shorts reverse. Simple as that!
Smokey, watch the presentation. it kind of addresses the pricing stuff amongst other things. Quite reassuring i thought anyway!
Unless they’ve got any more nasty surprises to unveil over the coming months you’d reasonably expect there to be a decent recovery in the share price by end of the year to reflect the long term value in the business. Interest rates should slowly reduce and unless there’s some catastrophic wider market event you’d have thought that most of the worst case scenario is already priced in at these levels. We were in the 90’s only a few months ago and thanks to the ineptitude of Stamp find ourselves 40pc off that level when none of the metrics have really changed apart from the issue in Germany. Sentiment rather than numbers has dropped us to these levels and once trust in management was gone in hindsight it was inevitable that the price would crash. But sentiment can change as long as they start to perform to guidance and the change of CFO in that respect is crucial though personally I’d have liked to have seen Garat out the door too for his part in this fiasco. I still see a good business here , bus transport will grow and it can’t be beyond imagination to think that they either cut / sell loss making parts of the business or they will increase fares to restore profitability. As has been said MCG isn’t a charity and as shareholders invested here why should we accept that OUR money is being wasted on supporting loss making routes such as WMB ? The new CEO at RR would surely sort this mess out very quickly were he in charge here, it’s not rocket science to get the sums right . I said it the other day but I’m grateful to some of the posters on this forum who consider the bigger picture and are thoughtful about their views and analysis on this company. It’s been an absolute dog of an investment for me and paper losses are sickening today and there are times that I’ve been very upset with myself for calling it wrong. And on more than one occasion I’ve been sorely tempted to sell the lot , accept the losses and chalk this down to a bad experience. You can’t win every time. But like others have said we are perhaps at a bottom , or near to anyway, and eventually patience will be rewarded. I’m feeling that this could turn big once sentiment changes or we get a bid and that’s what keeps me here. It’s the hope that kills !!
We were being shorted 2.6% back in Feb 2023 and then peaked again around June. I wondered the cause was?
Actually this is better
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0006215205/
Found this interesting. The old NEX ticker shows the shorts have often been at elevated levels. Maybe just a trade rather than them betting against our demise. Feel a bit more comfortable now
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareShortPositions.html?shareprice=NEX&share=NEX.L
Everyone putting up their prices a good slog, the fare increases simply werent enough
Just had my AA membership qoute.
Last year £67. This year £90. That's a 35% increase. There lies our problem. Fares are way too cheap. Prices need too go up big time.
This mess all comes down too management.
Ignacio Garat needs to go.
Share holders need too call a vote of no confidence and show this man the same door as Stamp
I watched the results presentation again today. Don't really see any huge issues with this for the long term. Just being hammered down due to headline numbers as far as i can see!
This kind of stuff presents an opportunity for MCG. But the contracts have to be watertight to ensure a healthy return & if they are not be prepared to walk away!
This company is not a charity. They need to ditch any loss making contracts & focus on those with decent ROCE. That is what good, well run businesses do!
We would be well shot of WMT. Not really adding much commercially to this business!
Apparently favourite to take over at the election
https://www.simonlightwood.org.uk/post/labour-s-plan-for-better-buses
Interested to get everyone’s thoughts
Could our Uk bus profitability improved or lost altogether? Researching this weekend when I get the time. Important question to answer.
Haha, yes i know. In the end day to day this company is running just fine as i see it. Just not turning the income into profit. Talk of the large debt i understand of course but this company can run day to day without really having to touch any of the cash & facilities. A slow burner but i'm planning to add more on further drops as my longer term view on this company hasn't really altered much from when i was buying at 150
Lots of ifs buts and maybes here
If the shorts reduce their position over the next 1-2 months as interest rates rise and the Cosmens build ever closer to 30% then a foregone conclusion that shorts were in it for a short term gain on poor sentiment but Cosmens looking to take over
If the shorts stick around and grow their positions then I suspect they are betttinf against a breach of covenants, then it gets ugly
I used to head the pricing dept for a ftse 250 company who had similar pricing power. Why the hell don’t they just tweak their prices upwards again where they can. I wonder how much we are tied into fixed contracts
The other thing I saw was the labour MP from West Midlands hoping to get in and take public/refresh contracts. Could that be the fear?
Paddyboy
When you're holding large amounts like us, sometimes these little seeds get planted and get you questioning everything.
JG just usual scaremongering nonsense. IAG/RR etc etc were all going bust too according to these bbs at some stage! The SP is just a number that is all & it will change over the next few years in multiples if the management do their job!
When talking of why cosmens are adding, is there any validity in this post from advfn.
wouldn't occur to the thickest of the thick that they would want to command the strongest hand in administration in order to have the credibility and gain the confidence of the creditors when this shower falls into prepack.