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The simple advice is: If you think this is going bust: Sell everything or don't invest in it!; If this is going to low 40s: Sell everything tomorrow & buy back at low 40s! There it is.The end!
Jg what’s Simon (secretary) hoping for then an invite to the administration party? ha. What’s clear is it’s beat a lot of you down now and I get it but you need to try keep emotions out of it that’s how you make mistakes.
Shorts- are betting on this accelerating down and it can’t even hold Octobers low at the min (bearish. ) but you have bullish divergence on multiple timeframes so imo it’s trying to trap some long or shorts (one of thems about to be horribly wrong) you have 3 key levels close by so if you access to a chart you need to put these levels on because if is about to accelerate down one of these will likely become resistance they are
The October low
The open from Monday
And the Covid low
There’s not really any support below 50ps a good area but only physiological at best traders/investors like key numbers 888,Halfords for example but there’s no reason it can’t end up in the 30s Rr, thg, boohoo for another example
If it accelerates down keep an eye out for the sp getting exhausted making smaller moves,sideways trading then one last attempt to go down but bouncing back, it will bounce back like it’s on steroids
Fomc next week markets where expecting 1475 points of rate cuts from central banks but now it’s only 475 according to Bloomberg so some of that might eventually get priced into the markets
You may well be right Smokey. I was in on both Boo & THG when they were originally dragged down to 30p so who knows. Hoch was also dragged to 50p but that's tripled back up!
Well I've got extra pampers in!!
Will be sitting on toilet a lot longer yet
Hope not as running out of the toilet paper i hoarded during lock down.
Paddy
Unfortunately i have very few brought at a low price
Any way GL to All
Back over £1 in few months!
I hope it goes low 40s as i'm buying more!
End of 2022
Will be sitting on toilet a lot longer yet, can see this getting nasty. Maybe low 40s unfortunately
Prime, yes i started my buys end of 2027. I actually 'caught the bottom' at 127 in December 22 with one of my buys. I was also invested during Covid & again on one of my tranches 'caught the bottom' at 112. The covid ones i sold for a decent profit & got back in big when it was hitting the covid prices again. Investors in RR have had a similar roller coaster over the 3 years before the recovery & i imagine most who invested at good prices there probably all sold out when they broke even again & have now seen the SP rocket away. I've always had a 5 year view on this investment & intend to keep a core holding for at least that period. I will slice some on recovery simply because i have too many in here now although my intention is to average down further at these prices. I think a lot of people are thinking short term here which is compounding their frustrations. Watch the presentation. They are addressing the pricing issues which yes i agree with you on. This company has huge competitive advantage & pricing should not be an issue here IMO. Demand is inelastic for their services. They could raise prices on UK coach by probably 20% without a big impact on demand. WMT is due to be renegotiated in Jan 25. People are ignoring a lot of positives here & focusing on all the negatives.
@ Paddy
loss on paper so maybe i should sit on the toilet all day
50k+ for me & yes i have been sitting on the toilet for 4 years now
£1.90 started buying or there about
It fecking hurts to see Sp attacked day in day out .
If they only were to put up prices in the UK by a few % would help as people on here have been saying using the coach for UK journey's have been to cheap & would have gladly paid a Fee £ more
Far too much fear & panic abound here. I get that the SP is dreadful. £80k+ loss on paper so maybe i should sit on the toilet all day. This is the lowest price since this listed in 1993. This is a solid business bring in consistently huge revenues. Take a trip down any major arterial motorway & you will pass several giant jam sandwiches to remind you of what you have bought part of! This will be a missed opportunity i believe for many who were happy to buy at but not at 50p!
Look at the short seller profile on DOCS. Very similar activity to what's going down here. It's unlikely the opportunity to get these at 50p will be around for long!
How many on here have watched the presentation? If you are invested it is essential viewing. The person who said this is going into prepak won't have & you have to question the motive of someone putting that comment onto a chatboard with zero evidence to support it!
There are various posters suggesting risk of administration, balance sheet hanging on by a thread, there was even one yesterday suggesting that Cosmens are adding to be able to get Alsa on favourable terms from creditors after MCG goes into prepack.
Obviously where we are and with sentiment at an all time low, one begins to question if you're going to get wiped out.
As simplistic as it is to think like this, I keep reminding myself how much Alsa is probably worth if it were sold today, well over a billion I would guess.
If those estimates are anywhere close to accurate on the NA bus sale then surely the share price for what’s left should eventually be multiples of where it stands today ? Maybe that’s a too simplistic view but it does seem a no brainer that these are a longer term hold rather than a panic sell today …
I would think it is as JG alludes, to give time to demonstrate the business potential. By doing that it should stand up and attract wider interest. Only when potential bidders sense competition around them will they lose hope of getting it on the cheap and instead bid decent prices. So it pins on how actually attractive it is and how much interest it garners. Can it reliably deliver margin for the buyer > their borrowing cost? FY23 2.4% does not deliver that, but I think they said Q4 run rate implied 4.5-5% margin in 2024 and if by Q3'24 the new leadership can bolster this upwards it might just become attractive?
Who knows Laralara, probably just sentiment and revised guidance. Hopefully things will settle in a while until July!!!
JG 68
I am wondering then why this hue and cry? Do some of us believe they will not be able to sell at all? US school bus business was very attractive before pandemic and after rout instated, driver hired improved contract it will again be on track . So there are plenty of options for the company to navigate and that is why Cosmen are buying.
Mavswf
I think I recall some brokers initially talking about figures circa 1.2 billion 6 months ago, but really unsure now.
Can anyone clarify the reason for delaying the sale until around q3 after the schools bids contracts are finalised?
Is it to demonstrate to potential suitors the improved profitability margins on future revenue / contracts given the current inflationary headwinds?
I think they stated they hope to complete the sale by year end.
Any guesses on what the NA schools business is actually worth assuming that it’s not a distressed sale situation?
Or paid off when they finally dispose of NA schools.
It’s very uncommon for hybrid bonds to get extended and it would lose all of its equity component…when the hybrid was issued, rates were at 0%…hence it has to be refinanced at a much higher rate.
I don’t think we will be able to issue a regular bond as it will break our covenants
Looks like the reset interest rate in 2026 will be sum of Reset Reference Rate (e.g. UK gilts) + Margin of 4.125%, going up to 5% if the hybrid continues to 2031.
So it looks guaranteed to go up in 2026 to some degree. Could also just be refinanced with normal bonds for cheaper e.g. Euro bonds but I think that would be an accounting problem for the covenant gearing/leverage?
From what I understand about the hybrid the interest rate resets in Feb 2026 e.g. "reset date". It's not refinanced as such, just the rate gets reset.
It's not a given the % interest would rise - they note it could be lower than the initial on page 20 of the hybrid document. The new rate would be in reference to UK gilt yields so depending on how things go with BoE it could actually be cheaper if we head back to zero rates.
It's a pretty hard document to read, though.