London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Some sort of meeting has taken place today and the activists were going on regarding PC water usage.
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=6464736136879144&id=100011445393483
They don't need oil they have plenty of HOT AIR!
Velociraptor news on drilling 9-10p
LP news lands 15p
Things are happening and derampers wanting to get in be carefull people
“Velociraptor news on drilling 9-10p
LP news lands 15p”
Good to see the rampers have something new to say today!
Doc83 you seem to get annoyed when people say anything positive about matd, all your posts have to have a negative spin on it, you are definitely not invested here, most likely sold at 3p and trying to get back in,
You have to be completely stupid if you think anyone here believes you when you say your being balanced, trust me I haven't or don't know anyone who would invest their hard earned money then put negative spin on it and deter investors, you only motive here is to buy low but that chance is gone fella buy now or don't make your self look like a complete idiot on here
Your lost credibilty long ago,
It's a binary play Doc:
The Land Permit comes or it doesn't.
50:50.
Or more likely 90:10 in our favour?
Oh and the Velociraptor drill date.
That's a 50:50 too.
Oh..... except all permissions are in place and contracts agreed we're just waiting on confirmation of the drilling slot date.
So shall we say 90:10 in our favour again?
Oh and renewables.
50:50?
Nah. This is a pegged on stone wall certainty.
It's what the Mongolian Government want and Petro Matad have lined themselves up in the box seat to provide wind and solar energy.
It'll need money though. Hopefully from Heron Oil revenues but if not it's a nailed on back up plan that'll be funded.
Roll the dice I'm liking the odds!
Thornogson - I do hope you're right.
However, IMO LP is not 90% in our favour. I'd say more 60-70% based on historical non-compliance from the MG, so still a good risk/reward bet.
Velociraptor drill date doesn't worry me. But it's COS? That's down as a 20% chance?
Renewables I have no idea at this stage on how much of a positive impact that will have, except to say that is should be positive.
Nothing is a "stone wall certainty" though.
IF LP does come in and the SP only rises moderately, then I'll be topping up again. However, my best guess would be an almost immediate 10p on positive LP news.
Even 90% odds, although obviously excellent, is a world away from 100%.. so as long as investors are aware that the incessant "IT'S COMING!!!!" "GUARANTEED, ABSOLUTELY GUARANTEED POSITIVE RNS COMING!!!!" doesn't mean it's at 100% already, then all is good.
As I've stated before, I've invested in stocks where similar supposed odds of success have been expected. One recently, where there were the same excited posts about parties, visits to Ferrari dealers etc. Even people remortgaging houses and literally raiding kid's piggy banks to invest more as "it was so certain to be a success".
The RNS came and instead of the SP going from £2 to £10 and rising to upwards of £50, like the excited people were saying it would do, it was a negative RNS and the market opened at 10p...
It's always sensible to mix a bit of caution and pragmatic thinking alongside the hope and optimism.
GLA, and I really hope this one does come in big for us all.
I'm liking the Renewables angle.
Initially I saw it as a rather negative 'safety net' play in case the whole oil exploration/production thing came to naught but it's what all the major Petrochemical companies are doing now and Petro Matad find themselves in a country that appears to be rather well set up for industrial scale renewable energy schemes to meet both Mongolia's need but then in due course to help China wean itself off it's current coal habit.
Money, money, money!
It's oil exploration and production.
Nothing's 100% for sure but with a market cap of £45m and all this potential up-side.
Or wait until it's more certain. Less up-side but less down-side.
Or invest what you can afford to lose, it amounts to the same thing.
Personally i do not think we should start to drill Velociraptor until we have the LP for Heron. If we start without it will do absolutely nothing for the share price unless we strike a commercial and viable strike and even then it will be distinctly tainted because the wider market will not price this in until we have the LP for Heron. Yes i hear you say that it is a different region but we all know that ultimately it is CG that has the say so if they are not issuing the LP for Heron why should they issue one for the Raptor if it strikes. It is also our only weapon in hand to hold out for the LP.
Raptor is down as a 20% COS because they are always priced low to dampen expectations but really i think it is a bit higher than that but probably not by much in terms of striking oil in the overall concept of where we are as a compay Geo politically in Mongolia i would say the COS of striking and bringing it to Market (at this immediate point of time) ie no LP for Heron is at 10% and possibly less. I think MB is well aware of this and that is why everything is being held back.
This share is very rapidly becoming an all or nothing share. The SP is falling away fairly rapidly from the hope and expectation a couple of weeks ago. We have 9 days including to day to end of the first quarter (including weekends) and once we get this in April the SP will probably fall back even further. Central Government has to take firm control on this and tell the LG to get a move on it is souring international relations as the world is watching this and us.
By all means wait and as you say less downside and less upside. But very probably when the LP lands you will not be able to buy any shares for love nor money. I think there are a number of buy orders on the table with instructions to wait for the LP and then move. For me that is what is worth waiting for. It will be like having a bottle of champagne and numerous corks as everytime an RNS is released it will give the price a new boost. With LP next day opening will double price from 4 - 8p and move to 10p very rapidly and then it will gradually climb through the teens to around 20p in fairly rapid order. Maybe at rate of about 1p a day on average right up to point of Raptor results then it will deflate rapidly on the news which will almost certainly be an anti-climax on the expectation. Then it will start to work back up again to what is projected for this share.
Yes i also like the Renewable angle that MATD initiated and is needed to meet the increasing demand that is to come. Would certainly be huge positive to feed the upcoming Oil refinery.
New Oil refinery will not just need crude oil as feedstock but will need power and electricity also. Then you will have infrastructure needs and further demand from house residents as Mongolia moves to urbanisation and economic expansion.
Central Govt implementing policies now to attract Foreign Investors and MATD management has made a huge contribution in shaping up the compliance & governance policies for all parties.
MATD is not a one trick pony anymore.
Soon to become Oil producer with Massive Upside from the sexy Exploration side with Billions of barrels still untapped in Mongolia and now ever growing clean energy / Renewable energy aspect.
Just look at those many Multi-billion barrels oil producing fields in China. Mongolia now playing catch up and this is a excellent entry price for anyone looking to get in.
People need to do their own research and due diligence. Look at recent RNS and interviews.
Analyst risked valuation is conservative 58p.
"IMO LP is not 90% in our favour. I'd say more 60-70% based on historical non compliance from the MG"
This is where people like sneaky mr Doc do not understand & use false logic
If you want to use HISTORICAL non compliance then you must understand history & presence ;)
History from mr Mike Buck tell us decision was with Local Govt because new law 2017. What is position now sir?
Decision with Central Govt
Historical law protestor get away with obstruction. New law protestor go to prison
Now have NEW LICENCES and why they do this if historical non compliance mean no one can get oil revenue?
Mining Minister just do international promotion for foreign investment in Mongolia. Lot of public statement say problem in past but new approach including LAW CHANGE. Even yesterday I post I formation in this from European Mongolian Chamber of Commerce.
Mining Minister have said in public LP will be given. People like Ambassador & CEO who speak DIRECTLY with Govt say CONFIDENT LP will be given and VERY SOON.
If do not believe figure 60-70% from someone who have show to be sneaky on BB & base on historic factor.
Prefer to look at presence factor & think all know this is much more important.
Make own decision but am very happy to hold MATD share & believe this is more 99% will happen using logic of all pieces in this
Not sneaky buy sell like some but investor who do research & make decision from this.
Happy :)
UWOS you POS - so if decision now with central government, why the continued delays? Why did mining minister tell MB back in October 2022 that it would be 1-3 months?
Mr sneaky Doc must explain to you in simple way ;)
Discussion about LP granting and you say 60-70% because of historic non compliance reason & I use logic of all new development to show how sillly your reason.
Do not be upset but see with own eye & not sneaky heart ;)
Mining Minister say will get LP in 1-3 month but understand there is process to go through & one is see if Local agree on own. If no then Central Govt overide
In Govt some delay is not new and believe more people who have regular meeting with Govt when they say CONFIDENT & VERY SOON.
Remember mr sneaky Doc we talk about LP permission and I give reason for 99% & my logic is strong and make your logic look like child have analyse investment lol
Like mr Ibiza say we see RNS one morning & will be no chance to BUY before price does multibag.
This is why I am happy have already my MÀTD share safe & will not try sneaky trade like you sir :)
Also know RNS for Velocirapror spud day due :)
All the positivity but still the SP slides - very odd.
I do find the recent recent narrative from the Mongolian Government very reassuring.
They recognise that to attract the foreign investment that they want they need to offer, and be seen to offer, a fair and just legally enforceable business environment.
It hasn't necessarily been there in the past and they acknowledge this and are sorting it out.
We're at the front of the queue hopefully.
UWOS you POS - my logic might be like that of a child, but who has been right so far?
Also, seems a little odd… decision now with central government but still checking with local government.