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I went into my Broker a/c today and looked up Coltrane and they now own 5% of the Company registered under their Master Fund and Long Term value fund.
I also researched and found they issued a statement in public domain to say they would short American Tech and look to buy investments in Europe that are slow to recover from the Pandemic - Where they see better value.
My own Broker mentioned Four of their Brokers have Marston as a suggested strong buy, with two being a simple buy, four brokers are neutral and one one suggests to sell. So we are at least moving in the right direction on past adjustments with a raised sentiment going forward. No shorts fund registered entry now for Marston on the Short tracker index. GLA. DYOR.
The senior member of the Doomsters returns from Holiday -haha! Those who want to discuss a comeback only need to review the Marston chart for the first week on January 2020 to discuss how this share will come back on re-valued property that is now making money. It was good of Fair trader to be generous enough with his statement that mentioned the values previously had been made reflecting on the market conditions at the time the pandemic had started and now we have a come back post pandemic. Negativity is going to be turned around to positivity.
Hopefully the strong warm weather we have had for September (which even doomsters have enjoyed) will also add to the H2 numbers due out very soon that is something we can discuss when they arrive!
I have to say that the statement "doomsters here want everyone to sell so that they can come back at a lower price" is very silly.
Anyone who thinks that the posters on LSE site have sufficient stock holdings to materially affect a stock price which, even at these glum levels, still makes for a market cap of £196 million must be seriously delusional.
The whole point of these boards is to discuss & chew the cud over stocks of mutual interest, but to believe stock prices of this size can be manipulated on here is frankly laughable.
Good points Karl - I summarise and will add as Sales up to pre-pandemic levels and debts being reduced. Interest rates appear to be near peak where inflation is reducing and sales are up. When the commercial property values are revaluated we should recover to well over a £1 a share with a reversal of the fall in the first week of Jan 2020 when we have new sales figures.
We do not have long to wait now for an update on "summer H2 sales" which are at their highest number for Marston and then will still have later in the year the full results which will include the Brewery partnership and home sales. A lot to look forward to with this share. GLA.
1: NAV is 95
2: Compared to Mitchell and Butler, Marstons is 500% down. (they have similar debt and rev/profit)
3: There was a takeover bid of 105 in Oct 2021, and the BoD rejected as this price is "undervalued".
Marstons have done the hard work of:
A: New Carlsberg Martson partnership is better profit generating
B: Site consolidation to yield better profit from their estate
C: Site consolidation, with property sales reducing debt
D: Debt is being reduced and fully handed and inflation coming down
What Unfair trader has highlighted is that in early 2020 when the values of the property took into account the pandemic looking at past property values for the past two years the share price within one week fell from £1.11 to 0.23p on falling sales and this shows the effect the Covid 19 had on the business. However as we can all see the reason for the fall we can now see the management have said not only are we back to pre-pandemic sales but when the property values are re-adjusted on values to reflect back the earnings we will recover to the correct amount with the NPV at 97p and likely to go back to the £1.11 level. This must be one of the best buys at the moment of the LSE. GLA.DYOR but look at the 2020 Jany chart. The doomsters here want everyone to sell so that they can came back at a lower price. They are mistaken.
The company has to pay the annual interest on its loans without fail or the banks will become tricky. As long as the interest is paid, then inflation will erode the real size of the debt. Companies can also claim tax relief on interest but not on capital repayment so nibbling away at the debt makes sense. Repaying 50 mil each year and ten percent inflation is going to see this debt as a fraction of value and turnover fall quite significantly.
Come on the Auditors observed the over valuation of proprerties approved by the Directors,. This observation was contained within the Accounts finalised on 29th September 2019. The pandemic officially began in UK in January 2020 after which ALL property values were affected. If as claimed the Directors had foresight in yr 18/19, we should be a a very much better place than current as the SP proves.
The Valuation information may be considered negative, by some, but critical for intelligent and serious investors in their decision making.
No doubt as other outside factors were considered such as the start of the pandemic they were right to lower valuations based on "In FY19, management have undertaken an exercise to identify if there have been any impairment triggers or changes in value such as a change in market conditions " -perhaps now as the group as a whole has changing conditions to reflect better sales than before the pandemic the property values will be re-adjusted back to what they were. This will increase the Company NPV further which is why the Company is now basing shareholders benefit from increased sales. I see absolutely no error of judgement they were being cautious perhaps all of their competitors should have done this at the time as well? As usual bias towards negative sentiment when not required! GLA/DYOR.
Read the following statement issued by the Auditors who qualified the 2019 accounts,
Now apologise
""Valuation of the estate (notes 1, 4, 11, 12 and 18) – Group
and Company
We focus on the Directors’ annual assessment of the carrying value
of land and buildings because properties are a significant item on the
balance sheet and there are complex and subjective assumptions used
in the valuations, including the future expected financial performance of
pubs and the earnings multiples applied. A full external valuation of the
estate was undertaken during FY18.
In FY19, management have undertaken an exercise to identify if there
have been any impairment triggers or changes in value such as a
change in market conditions or a fall in the trading results of a pub or
segment. Other factors considered relate to property based transactions
both within the marketplace and the Marston’s estate, which could
indicate changes in the carrying value of the estate. Management have
noted such triggers and have recognised a net impairment charge of
£69.2 million, of which a net charge of £44.6 million has been recorded
in the income statement and a net charge of £24.6 million has been
recorded within the revaluation reserve within equity.""
Which exact hedge fund?
Without specifics, it's total wishful thinking, sorry.
If it's in reference to the Coltrane Master Fund (1 and 15 August RNSs), those were not large acquisitions - and they were partly offset by Morgan Stanley offloading some of its holdings.
Right now, I noticed several 10+k and 50k buys, but I don't have any conclusive info as to the source.
You are right in that on this thread someone mentioned an American Hedge fund investor has invested with a disclosure and wonder if we had any shorts registered. I looked up on short tracker but the Company mentioned are now advertising the fact they are shorting American Tech which has risen fast this year and are now looking for opportunities of investing and buying into European Comps that had taken a hit during Covid - so you never know perhaps we will have a further disclosure soon? who knows. As ever keep-em peeled. per Shaw Taylor.
Karl -good points raised -but Don't forget to add on to the Marston value :-
The 40% SHARE THEY OWN IN THE CARLSBERG MARSTON BREWING COMPANY SERVIING HOW MANY 1000'S SUPERMARKETS AND ONLINE SUCH AS AMAZON do they have to serve, where profits and the number of beers is now increasing due to economies of scale savings and variety from the merger of the Breweries. Where there is the possibility to take up slack lost from Russian production to Europe.
HOW MANY MITCHELLS AND BUTLERS ARE IN TOWN (subject to rail strikes?) Whereas Marston are locals.
MARSTON HAVE SAID FRANCHISED ROLL OUTS WILL INCREASE AS VERY PROFITABLE!
LAST YEARS FULL YEAR FIGS WHEN I LOOKED SHOWED ME EARNINGS PER SHARE WERE GREATER WITH MARSTON.
Gla/dyor and as Shaw Taylor said watch out and keep'em peeled for the unfair trader and his dad children.
Nice little tick up today on warm weather Sentiment! interestingly Unfair trader comes here with negativity and rubbish statements of how the board went around conducting their own values which were wrong, when they employ professional qualified people to do it for them. How long would it take to go to Scotland and Wales and then to the whole of England to look at and value 1400 sites? Rubbish. Statements alter too where he has repeated said previously he is an investor as he likes his discount vouchers. I suggest an audit for those who don't hold shares and still have use of the vouchers. For the Company the values of the Estate have been proven to be conservatively valued where the Management have said that those sold recently for more than book value. So what do we feel will be the values for those that the Company wishes to keep that are far more profitable?
As unfair trader has his JCB out I am happy to answer my godfather left me some money (but no shares) but no doubt all of his shares would have been left to my Aunt (my God mother) and his two daughters. My own shares I have bought myself and have been adding to recently, building them up which I feel is very wise considering we have an NPV share value in late 90p's AND one thing my Godfather did say to me was what a great company this was. He was very true and upright a military man which is why I have been drawn to Marston, as well as some other great British Companies that I have respect for. I am only pumping this share as we need to see a balance to the negativity and incorrect statements. Anything I say can be found on the Company web site statements. GLA, DYOR but beware of Unfair traders statements which contain inaccurate accusations likely to upset the Management are surprising from someone who appeared previously to enjoy his discount free voucher- for being an investor-perhaps this needs looking into as would you want to be drinking with someone so negative. It would drive you to drink! Mind you he would help sales, ha.ha!
Dulwichman, until Covid the BOD conducted in-house desktop valuations of the estate. These values were subsequently discovered to be wrong and downward valuations were then adjusted within the accounts.
The company then decided either willingly or by pressure from Lenders, to contract out Valuationsto suitably qualified valuers. The estate is now valued on a 3 year cycle, 1/3 of the estate valued each accounting year.
Not sure if District Valuers use the Red Book as do RICS Valuers.
I seem to have touched a raw nerve, SC? I deal in facts not hopes. Are you in PR for the company? You continually come out with statements which may be inside information. You know the sale value of recently sold properties. Where are those values published? They do not appear on Christy's site.
The re-development of any Pub site is not simple LA approval for change os use is required apart from Full planning permission, and do not forget many Pubs are regarded as Community assets, consequently Local groups and Councils take over the management of Local Assets.
A question you have failed to answer. If the company's performance is so good why have they breached loan agreements, not once but twice. That is a fact, please give an explanation as you are close to the Board.
As far as trading is concerned, just remember your own position. Shares bequeathed to you by your Godfather which you then admiitted to selling even though you insisted would not be sold.
I am not a trader and never will be, but like fair play where any investor has a fair and reasonable insight into a company they are either invested in or considering.
Michell and Butler: Locations = 1700
Marston: Locations = 1500
Michell and Butler: Debt: £1.4b
Marston: Debt: £1b
Michell and Butler: MCAP £1,314m
Marston: Debt: MCAP £203m
Are things being equal Marston Share Price should currently be in the 60's
For once, SuperC what you are writing is reasonable (Vs widely optimistic claims).
I’ve just got back into MARS: the chart isn’t clearly pointing in either direction TBH but the regular big buys for the past two days have stood out for me.
Hi No sweat - You are quite right - Mitchells & Butlers, Wetherspoons, Whitbread and Marston are all doing very well today -must be the hot weather! Which is what the BOD has already said helps sales.
Marston also have many advantages such as benefit of sales in Supermarkets from the Brewery JV, as well as being family locals, rather than those where one needs to get to by train in towns and so less affected by train strikes!
If I've understood correctly, there are 5 times as many shares being bought than sold. Must be the hot weather boosting expectations.
Its looks to me as if we have one or two unfair traders here in favour of Crooked pubs. One who always has a negative view they stay negative. This also depends in whether one actually hold shares in the Company or wishes to come back at a cheaper price. If the Company is that bad go elsewhere -why get pleasure from such negativity why not make suggestions if one is so clever! However for me one needs to read and analyse the actual words said from the Company itself.
The Company said it is hoping to increase its sales to over £2billion in four years. The Company is making money to reduce its debt. The Company also has enough to continue investing in its Premises with new popular garden rooms and outdoor areas being added and updated to further increase sales - which has been a success. It has also found franchise arrangements have been very successful and this will be further rolled out. The premises recently sold were all above the value on the Companies books. One unfair trader mentioned he had seen premises empty well if they were loss making that is why. Sometimes owners as well as Developers will seek planning permission with a change of use or will build properties which actually makes perfect business sense increase property values. I did the same thing with some property I inherited and built five houses. September temperatures have reached record highs and the last releases from the Company have said this helps sales in the Establishments, well lets not forget home sales whether from the establishments or down the supermarket! If the Company has over 1400 Venues why are we worried about 2 or 3 that are closed that would have been open it they were profit making. No doubt for the old Crooked house that was sold if it had been a real profit making pub it would have been retained. When one buys a house do they ask an accountant for a value or a qualified Surveyor who uses local charts and not national charts and is someone who looks at local prices recently sold and seeking by estate agents. Everyone believes what they want to but I believe the statements are statements of fact from the board, and if not the Board will be legally liable for misstatement -so I trust them! To me the Company is well run and coming back fast (four years or more is nothing for a Company with a long Pedigree) & well over 100yrs off good will.
Fair dealer. Just a point of clarification please. Do you happen to know where we are re the valuation cycle? There is the statutory valuation every few years and the yearly? Many years ago I was a District valuer and shall I say politely that my then valuations were perhaps a little different to the values by some well known names in the business. All I would say (so not to upset some former collegues) that the yearly valuations untimatley they are not a cut and paste into the accounts! Not for the first time now I have been retired I have been able to challenge at an AGM of the company with the noirmal result being a shut down of the subject in public followed by an instant invitation for a chat with a senior director beginning "How come you seem to know a lot about this?" My final point I would wish to make is that after a full and frank conversation In more than one case it has resulted in a change in the property valuation in next years accounts thus a change in the value of the Company.
My last point is that Property when it perhaps seen as secondary to the main businesss of any company can be over looked. If mangaged well it does effect many things including taxation. loans and dare I say it image etc of any Company all of which efects us as shareholders. Just looking at the bottom line never tells the full story.
Wagamama owner The Restaurant Group has increased its full-year profit expectations in light of strong sales growth at its outlets, defying a gloomy picture for the UK casual-dining sector.
TRG, which has been under pressure from a group of activist investors over its languishing share price, said its revenues in the six months to July 2 were up 10 per cent year on year at £467.4mn and its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation stood at £36.3mn, an increase of 15 per cent on last year.
The group, which also owns the Brunning & Price pub chain and Italian-American diner Frankie & Benny’s, said on Wednesday that the stronger than expected trading performance supported a “moderate increase” to full-year expectations for adjusted earnings.
Source:
https://www.ft.com/content/613f96b1-d8f4-43e8-829e-1dd91d04ec55
Robcodsall - your points are correct except for your suggestion that banks will become impatient. It’s not usually the case: so long as the borrower meets its payments deadlines, a bank is fine with a long-term loan repayment scheme as it means the bank keeps getting a steady income.
Be patient or a Patient in a secure hospital?
some her have nothing on Hans Christian Anderson.
Valuation are undertaken by RICS registered Survey Valuers NOT Accountants.
The belated summer is due to end on Sunday, so get to the Pubs 24/7.
Investors should not forget production cost of beer have risen considerably.
As for the sale of dormant/empty Pubs, any developer will think twice as many pubs require serious reconstruction/modification. Just look at the Crooked House saga!
I have passed 2 Marstons Pubs just off the A5, they have been boarded up for almost 2 years. Not a good investment for any would be developer in the current market.
Back to Griimms Fairy Tales!!!!
You can't say that a billion pounds of debt is reduced by £100 million in real terms thanks to 10% inflation without taking into account the amount added to the debt in interest payments, which at around 6% would be £60 million. It will take Marstons decades at their current rate of progress, to reduce their debt significantly and maybe the banks won't want to have to wait that long.