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If the beers have sold out then even though I don't like to encourage shorts - we should direct them to our Gins and Tonics instead, ha.ha. However I see the CEO has said there are less of them now available too if one reads the Company updates. Apparently punters were taking so long to make their mind up regarding which one to have the Bar staff were getting upset at not being able to sell more beers to the traditional clients that were gasping for a pint! Rugby Sunday so maybe get some Japanese beer in too, or rather not as even my Japanese clients prefer our real ale!!
I have a feeling we should start charging more at peak times like our other companies do that it appears we supply anyway, such as the Slug and Lettice, and hopefully we can divert some more supplies to our own pubs instead of the third party wholesaler's.
Results soon will be expected to be very good in anticipation it seems. The LSE may have missed a treat here!! GLA.
Damn, hot weather means there is not a single empty table in pub garden, and inside is rammed (not Youngs). To make matters worse, they have sold out of Pedigree on pump, thank god there are some bottles. Told by bar staff that scorching September, which is expected to continue over weekend, has ignited the blue touch paper and saved summer after wet August. Excellent news...
Yes I did hear sales were up on last year which we already know were up on the year before that and were therefore past post pandemic sales. The last release stated they were aiming for £2Billion of sales within four year but that is now liking to be upgraded to less. They also said the Ladies world cup was a success for sales and we now have the Rugby World Cup to enjoy. The Football season is also now underway too and we have the men's European Cup. Lots to look forward to. The consolidation in saving costs also continues as they close/sell off loss making ventures but have economy of sale now with the Carlsberg Marston JV. which we can see is supplying a larger number of privately owned and wholesale ventures.
Indeed.
It is also worth noting that cga data shows beer sales in Uk on-trade were up 10% in the last 5 weeks on the same weeks last year.
And Marston and Carlsberg also supply Matthew Clark. You need to check out the beers/ales that the CM Partnership supply and produce!
Before you get your hopes up, Stonegate primarily buy from Matthew Clark.
Interesting what you said that Marston supply Stonegate from their distribution centre, as they have in fact more outlets than even Marston with the press noting over 2,000 Slug and Lettice's , etc across the Country. Something to think about in addition to the 1,400 plus of Marston themselves which shows the Brewery should really be reaping in the sales at the moment. I wonder how many other Groups they serve!! Results should be very good when they arrive!
Hi Macq -only using this as a comparison - obviously we don't want them to fail. In fact if they have raised prices maybe Marston have needed to as well to those Companies outside of group who the supply which will be good for business. So it will actually benefit Marston as you say if they continue to do well.
Out of town expenses where Marston preach will also have easier loading unloading of the fine ales, as well as the cheaper costs!!
A couple of my mates work in the main marstons/carlsberg wines and spirits warehouse distribution center ,they say the majority of the orders sent out are supplying the stonegate pubs etc,if stonegate fail in this venture marstons/carlsberg are affected down the line,
During peak hrs Stonegate are putting up the price of a pint by 20p. To combat The pub group that owns Slug & Lettuce and Yates's bars has said it will charge about 20p more per pint during peak hours due to cost increases.
Stonegate Group, the UK's biggest pub chain, says 800 of its 4,000 pubs will introduce "dynamic pricing" during evenings and weekends.
It said the price rise reflected the higher costs the company was facing, including extra security.
This will drive even more customers to Marston I am sure.
Unfair trader who prefers M&B (who produce less per share than Marston) also fails to realize that they will be paying substantially more costs for their businesses rates as they centre around towns, (whilst also charging more for their customers drinks where the also that they do not produce in house). Marston have supply from their own brewery and with the partnership have an extended source of beers, whilst being charged less on rates for being local pubs in many cases out of town. With train strikes on going we will see very soon from the latest figures how well Marston have been doing against their competitors. We have had a successful Ladies World cup, and now all enjoy the Rugby World Cup and European Football Qualification all on the large screens to be enjoyed. I can see some enthusiasm returning to this share now all brought on by unfair traders comments who no doubt is secretly working for our competitors.
I think you are looking at old debt, and since the last debt review Marstons have reduced debt by about £80m:
"Leisure analyst at Shore Capital Gregg Johnson points out that net bank debt stood at £183 million at the end of September 2022 while total debt including securitisations and long-term property leases stood at £1.21 billion."
Here is a simple math:
Gross Property value: £2.111 billion
minus:
Long-term borrowing £ 1.561 billion
Net Property Value: £0.55 billion
But the current company valuation (@ 31p/share) is only £0.197 billion, so you are paying only ~ 1/3 of the net property value, this is remarkably crazy low price. Even if the management has been a bit optimistic, it is still a bargain.
On top of the unbelievable discount on the property value, the company can generate over £60m free cash flow, so in roughly 3 years, the company will double your investment!
I don't understand why there are investors who are willing to buy those Marston's pub properties at 25% over book value, the more sensible way is to buy the Marston shares which can effectively own the Marston pub properties at 1/3 of its net value.
Disclosure: I have been buying Marston for the past 6 months.
"unable to manage effectively"
Marstons Trading update for the 42 weeks to 22 July 2023:
Total retail sales in the Group's managed and franchised pubs for the 42-week period were +12.0% on last year.
Dividends from CMBC are expected to be £11.0 million in H2 of FY2023.
Reduced by £50-£60 million at the end of FY2023 (around £1b now).
Compared with Mitchells & Butlers Trading statement covering the 43 weeks ended 22 July 2023.
Like-for-like sales in the year to date to 8.9%, with total sales growth now of 10.5%.
From Half Year results: 17 May 2023 07:00
Net debt reduced to £1,193m (HY 2022 £1,253m), excluding £467m of IFRS 16 lease liabilities (HY 2022 £483m)
So if comparing apples apples, then Marstons are very very undervalued:
Michell and Butler: Locations = 1700
Marston: Locations = 1500
Michell and Butler: Debt: £1.4b
Marston: Debt: £1b
Michell and Butler: MCAP £1,314m
Marston: Debt: MCAP £203m
Crikey, Wee Willy Winky cannot understand the function of Auditors also believes Accountants are qualified to undertake Property Valuations. Clearly has no clue on the financial management of a company, and tries relentlessly to encourage others to follow his inaccurate and misleading garbage. DO READ the Auditor's report for 2019 and make sure you are sober. The report clearly brings attention to the High Property valuations agreed by the Directors and when Ralph Findlay was in charge.
Comparison to M&B need qualification:
MAB's asset to debt ratio is 2.3 times covered
MARS asset to debt ratio is 1.5 times covered
Since 1st January MAB's SP has risen 60%, MARS SP has declined 22% in the same period.
Investors have greater confidence in MAB as the market confirms.
These are facts open for any serious , experience investor to consider.
The coming weeks will show how the 2 company's have performed, their results are published within a week of each other.
I am not invested in M&B and therefore don't feel appropriate to post on that board, but use comparable data from both company's to highlight the disparity between the 2, which IMO is down to historic poor management, a debt pile the company has been able to manage effectively.
Time will tell whether MARS is just another value trap.
However, I am patient and notwithstanding concerns around debt levels and property valuations I find the 2/3 discount to NAV compelling.
I also think the management are following the right strategy and now that interest rates appear to be nearing their peak I think the potential upsides justify the risk of being long.
I have now consolidated all my pub co investments into MARS as I see the greatest potential here over a 5-10 year horizon.
GLA, DYOR etc
Latest figures very soon for H2 however when comparing for the full fiscal yr end 30/9/22 the results are not what the doomsters would like to see. i.e. :-
Marston have an EBITDA of 299 M&B 256. Mars EBIT 255 M&B 123.
Whereas M&B might disclose an overall higher profit their expenses are also very high and on a reporting basis in fact they earn less per share than Marston. M&B on a reported basis they earn Fiscal yr end last yr 2.20 per share and Marston earned 21.40 per share.
So from a shareholder point of view it will be interesting to see if the Marston management want to re-introduce dividends on increased sales or continue to pay back debt. I would be asking M&B why based on their net earnings are their costs so high to erode their normalised profits but then as you said Karl their debts are also higher than Mars.
I think baby doomster is saying that Auditors are the ones to give credit to M&B etc,etc, and not Marstons. I cannot see they were responsible for a Pandemic do you? However they did write down values of our property whereas as a safeguard whereas M&B and others didn't. I suggest we will very soon have some far better results and our auditors can re-adjust the values back up and then the fund managers who are watching and building small stakes will buy in some more and once they do we will be back in the FTSE 350 and pension fund and tracker managers will too. We just have to wait but I certainly see a far greater recovery rate than with M&B -even if the doomsters prefer that share. They do not seem to want to contribute to the M&B board however so again they just want Mars to fall and so I rest my case as to why they have motivation to do so! I do not remember seeing one positive point regarding Mars from them and I have been on this discussion board as well as for many other Companies for many years! Perhaps they are M&B promoters or employees, well they certainly need them to make up for lost business during train strikes where most M&B premises are in towns?
Spelling corrections:
MAB has more debt than Marstons.
Marstons also has the 40% stake in Carlsberg Marstons, which gives then retail sale revenue, and better margins on alcohol sales in their pubs.
Considering the Platinum Equity takeover bid of 105 a share for Marstons was rejected as being too low, the BoD must see a ton of upside from here.
I personally would love to see another aggressive takeover bid with a third party buying 30% from the open market to force the BoD to the table and agreement.
MAB has move debt than Marstons.
Marstons also has the 40% stake in Carlsberg Marstons, which gives then retail sale revenue, and better margins on alcohol sales in their pubs.
Considering the Platinum Equity of 105 a share for Marstons was rejected as being too low, the BoD must see a ton of upside from here.
I personally would love to see another aggressive takeover bid with a third party buying 30% from the open market to force the BoD to the table and agreement.
It means MAB are better managed. They raised funds over 2 years ago, which reduced debt and provided for expansion.
Had MARS done similar the SP would be much higher now, instead of which asset disposal has been necessary
What tosh. Do read the Auditor's report and invent illusionary values.
The Auditors pointed out in September 2019 property values were too high, Directors took note and decreased values creating an impairment of £64m for the financial year ending 29th September 2019 well before the pandemic, which started in January 2020. After which ALL property values further declined as they are Now.
Rampers seem intent on distorting facts. The company debt stands at £ 1.6b . We will soon see ( Mid October) what progress has been made to reducing debt in the current year ending 30th September.
Sales increases can be bought, it is net profit that shareholders need to see.
Many hostelry's are reporting a dire july and August because of weather conditions. Let's see if Mars buck that trend!!
Some of us have been here longer than many and know how badly the company has been managed particularly by Ralph Findlay who has left a mess (debt) for others to sort out.
Look at the price divergence around October 2022 and then another big divergence on March 2023, between Mitchells & Butlers plc and Marston's.
Considering both companies are roughly the same size, same debt, etc.. it means that the marstons share price has a 300% rise to match.