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Quarterly trading statements are the norm for medium - large retail entities. It is not a good or bad thing there is such a trading statement due in September, Marstons is just following the norm.
I will look forward to the trading statement 11 days after the close of the 52 weeks. We can then see what is said and how it affects the share performance. Until then no one can say how good or bad the business has done. Also it will be good to see if any other items have come to light which the company is obliged to mention. The fact that the Company is issuing a statement so soon after the fiscal year end is a good thing in my mind. We will then after be able to access the share price. IMHO. DYOR.
...Hence my referring to the 5 December preliminary (i.e. unaudited) results - from the page that I put in my earlier post, and from which you lifted the dates.
Supercharger: No.
The last trading statement did NOT include profit . Just sales / equivalent.
The last week of trading has been strange.
Looks like the MM are doing everything they can to drag it down and eat up all the free shares.
Usually this is a great indicator they the are expecting great results.
Trading update out on the 11th October, so could see a fast re-rate back to the 60's based on NAV and other costing factors.
Lejb -think you will find that is not the case. The Company web is stating Fiscal yr end for the 52 weeks is 30/9/23 and they will be making a trading statement 11 days later! See extract from the "official comp web site" appears Morning Star have not updated their records for the Stock mkt but brokers are aware.
Investor dates
Trading Update: 26 July 2023
Trading Update: 11 October 2023
Preliminary Results: 5 December 2023
Annual General Meeting: January 2024
The only thing that MIGHT make the SP move is when actual profit figures are released - which will probably only be at the next set of unaudited results of 5 December.
https://www.marstonspubs.co.uk/investors/
Until then, more sales figures with no idea of how much money actually stays in Marston's coffers to pay its debt obligations at inflated interest rates vs the original rates pre-Covid when money was practically free.
Time to shut shop and sell to a property developer to bulldoze the whole pub estate and build social housing and flats.
Just bear in mind Dealers when short of stock lower share prices - so as to make people feel they should sell. Unfortunately they know people will sell when a share price falls and some times stupidly buy when the share price is going up.
DYOR. GLA.
@NoloServileCapis, also come to think of it, how many of the 1550 pubs have big car parks.
Seems like a great opportunity to bulldoze all these pubs and build big blocks of flats.
Would be a fantastic opportunity to marstons and flatten all the pubs to turn into social housing.
government are doing all they can to flood the country with migrants that dont drink but need somewhere to live, so it would be a great opportunity for some party donors to make alot of money.
Trent
Good afternoon to you too, all good your end I trust ?
Nothing much to report here, on fanrasy board land, the SP is still in the toilet, basically option money down at these levels.
Still have the same puff puff puffers at every opportunity or even when there is no opportunity, have you missed anything ?
Nah, nothing, nowt at all.
Karl,
Do you have any idea of the complications involved in converting pubs to housing? Many are beloved locals and character properties that will have staunch defenders. It might not be quite as easy as you imply….
@Supercharger, I prefer my plan currently, this will mean a 150% profit from here to any buyers now.
Would prefer to see Marstons have a takeover bid for £500m now, and get the estate sold off to a property development company to make way for social housing.
Karl - we just need to be patient. Warm weather is helping sales. This September is already breaking temp records. With prop. Valued by the accountants at £2Billion and with £1Billion in loans clearly the Company has a surplus margin. Sooner or later someone will see this. Increased sales with further improve the credit worthiness (even more so when rates start falling). Not long to wait for the full year results - dealers want you to sell so they have the stock - I am not tempted in any way to sell but instead have seen seen buying opportunities. There is no doubt that some sellers will be buying back soon especially if the results are gathering some upward momentum. Good luck but be patient and not be pushed into selling. IMHO.
Buy the company for circa £500m and turn all the properties into flats, and sell off the whole converted residential property estate to a property managed firm for £2b, and pay off the £1b debt to make £500m profit. Easy flip.
You could even throw away the 40% stake in Carlsberg Marston's Brewing Company as it would be worthless without the Marston's pub estate in place.
Carlsberg will panic, one of their big revenue streams in the UK is the Marston pub estate gone and they would be reliant on retail sales and the mercy of rival pub/brewery partnerships.
So really, as a way to protect themselves it would actually be wise for Carlsberg to buy up as much of the current free float of Marston shares to have a controlling position.
Hope you are all well. Just thought I'd check in to say hi.
I hope to see somewhere over 40p -others will laugh but the Fed deputy chair was speaking on Bloomberg today saying he felt Rates must have to come down due to such a strong dollar. Once this shenanigan starts we should start to see better market reaction. So time for me to buy some more!
Based on the Trading update in July 2023, it would appear that Marstons are tracking for a very very good year, and reduced Debt.
So what are people expecting for the October 2023 trading update?
July 2023:
"Like-for-like sales for the 42-week period were +10.7% vs FY2022. Both drink sales and food sales have been strong, demonstrating the steadfast trading resilience of our predominantly community pub estate.
Like-for-like sales in the 16 weeks to 22 July 2023 were +10.9% vs FY2022, reflecting the warmer weather in June, which enabled us to maximise the return on investment in our outdoor trading areas undertaken ahead of the summer months.
Total retail sales in the Group's managed and franchised pubs for the 42-week period were +12.0% on last year."
Wonder if the closure of many Schools will help lunchtime meals at local community pubs such as what Marston offer? In some ways parents will need a lunchtime pint too? I wonder if it from a sales point of view will be looked upon as an extended school holiday? I feel we need increased sales as the BOD have said to over £1billion in sales, and then as rates come down to re-structure remaining loans for an extended period at a cheaper rate as property values increase on cheaper rates to move above the current £2billion level. Perhaps also if excess profits are being shown to give the shareholders something back in return even if a small divi it point towards a Company now being post pandemic in a better financial long term position.
I agree that would be nice. Tho I suspect the BOD would have a lot of encouragement from shareholders to accept a discount to NAV and so a price below £1.
In the meantime I expect the share price to continue to languish at a 60%+ discount to NAV until they start to make real inroads to their debt mountain.
The next update needs to show progress to their back to a billion plan, margin maintenance (if not improvement) and a speeded up debt repayment plan.
There are people on this board who know much more about the terms of the debt pile than I do but I hope that the current bout of inflation will also be lending a hand in reducing the real value of the debt.
I remain hopeful that the shares will be rerated upwards over the course of the next 5 years and although I am currently underwater I am sufficiently patient to wait.
Fwiw I’d describe myself as cautiously optimistic.
GLA
I would love another takeover offer for 100 again, surely if that happened then the BoD would have to accept based on current SP
Suspect very soon we will be in the 40p mark -costs uploaded and 60% plus of sales in the summer will boost profits due to be released.
Hot UK September weather will help further for an extended window this year.
Lets see whether the doomsters who want to buy at a cheaper price, or those that are following a recovering sector win the day who have been gradually topping up?
To all the optomists out there , this dog of a share is going nowhere , warmer weather , BOD not showing outputs , sales increasing , where is the evidence for even £0.35 per share ?? The problem is debt, debt, debt, why do you think they got into bed with Carsburg in the first place ? Carlsburg didnt need it but Marstons did, As I have said before , the credit card is maxed out !!!! And for all the "knockers" out there, I have Narstons shares and am considerably underwater !!!
Hmm, at this rate we may be lucky to see 33p at christmas..
Very big spread, any buys are making the price jump fast!
Expect that there is very limited free float and any decent buys this will rally fast back over 35 levels.