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YoYoMa
Not even 10 bob, more like 9 shillings & sixpence !
But then we were always a a few steps behind eh ?
Very good to see the updates via their news dept are consistent, some good info this week given out. Today they released a shareholders notice. Personally I think the "up for Sale" is already in motion. Coming in at 38p back in the dark days we took a huge chance throwing what we did at it. I thought this was going to be a long term however my brother said we'll see how it pans out. Along the way we've had much banter but of late the board has been tarnished with some ill comments so best held back. We do hope you are all well and I guess it's all in the hands of the BoD.
On a lighter note (smirk) can you imagine selling up at 10bob and seeing todays price!
GLA and remain safe
VERY weighty 1,280,000 and 650,000 share BUYS showing end of day. Both say O: ordinary trades not UT so look legit to me, unless anyone can suggest otherwise?
Worth keeping for the prospect of the share price hitting £1-50. Plus when pubs open the shareholder benefit of a 20% discount on food and accommodation in Marston’s Inns & Taverns pubs.
I bought in at about 30p for the eventual divi and I'm happy to hold the shares 'til there's either a sale (hopefully over 130p) or we get back to selling beer and the SP gets back to that level + we get divis again. I don't really see the need to sell at £1, as vaccines are happening, etc, etc but like Lync says, if you want to lock in value you have to sell a few off to do that. One thing I don't see, is that there's a future without beer in it.
Gone through at 96p.
Someone thinks there is some upside
Hi Davey2 - I certainly wouldn't impart advice and I'm sure some will say my 'logic' isn't rational but I've always thought it odd that you're either in or out. I often sell down 1/2 my shares if I want to lock some upside in / don't want to risk all on a falling market etc.
I am inclined to think that at present there are a few duos having talks . When (if) the offer is made/accepted one side will be doing the brewing /selling and the other looking after the estate side. I shall leave it to you to ponder who might make up these duos. GLA.
Anyone else inclined to sell if it hits £1? I am inclined to but have always been relatively risk adverse.......
this is.
Surprised it's not over £1 yet. v odd indeed
London/Trent/Fairdealer
One bright point is that if anyone had felt that they were "long & wrong" everyone has been given the get out of jail card free with this approach.
I posted about 2 or so years ago that they could be attractive to an overseas buyer (weak £) or PE, I never realised all this would happen after they had touched 20p, but certainly the BoD must be pleased not to have to host open shareholders meetings at present, I'm sure they would be asked some sticky questions if so.
FD made an excellent point that Findlay has been a director for 24 years, which I personally feel could be rather too long & to the detriment of us shareholders, question is, will he be director in a years time?
London we are on the same Hymn sheet.
Some of us here have concerns when unreported approaches were happening at the same time Undertakings were being ironed out with Brains. It is pretty evident Marstons have given Brains a life-line, which in my opinion, and may be wrong, undertaking the management of an ailing estate could become a drain on Marstons resources. If Brains who are a very long established and own the Freeholds of their estate, are in trouble, I am not convinced "fresh management" are going to miraculously return the numbers being quoted.
I hope the company is not on an Ego trip!!
AIMO
Hi Fairdealer,
I agree with you and I'm sure Carlsberg would jump at the chance to buy the other 40%.
I also agree that I think the Board could rebuff much higher offers. We have a longstanding CEO who's probably more concerned about the legacy of "his" company rather than what's in the best interests of shareholders.
I hope I'm wrong...
Good morning London69. Thanks for the info. I'd not taken that into account, so it is worth knowing. I appreciate that. At least I now have some numbers.
@Fairdealer, yes, you have some good points. It's hard to try and guess how this will play out isn't it.
Bodes well for Marstons - https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-economy-will-be-unlocked-gradually-after-english-schools-reopen-says-vaccines-minister-12
London on the basis of your thinking Carlsberg are in the background to take out Marston's 40% ( something I suggested a few days ago). Remembering any bidder have got to appease Carlsberg as the JV requires Marstons to retain at least 50% of it's Pubs.
Trent, the is there seems a certain "Bon Homme" betweenBrain's and Marston's, and for sure the managed Pubs are of no interest to an "Asset Broker". Do'nt forget the previous offers, which were not publicised until very recent , were made behind closed doors when even Platinum were not aware.
The question being is Ralph in a sticky place where any offer is concerned?
It is curious just over 12 months ago a raft of pubs were sold to Admiral at a considerable discount and now the BOD considers the Platinum offer massively under-values Marstons. The rationale between the 2 is difficult but not impossible to understand.
One senses even an offer at 150p ( very unlikely) would be rejected by the BOD.
I also neglected to include the 40% joint venture with Carlsberg which could free up circa £300m if sold.
Good morning Trent,
Brains had EBITDA of circa £14m pre-COVID less £5.5m rent payable is a profit of £8.5m which is highly immaterial and just noise given the debt of circa £1.6 billion.
The value of the Group is in the real estate it owns and a P/E firm can increase the leverage to much higher levels than a public company to either invest in growth or pay dividends hence Platinum's interest.
Yes the Brains deal did raise a few questions in my mind at that time too. So much so that I posted my observations on here at that time.
I'm still not 100% convinced though as to how the Brain's outlets are linked to any possible offer for Marstons by this approach, as we do not own those pubs. We are paying a fee to manage them as I understand it. I get that there will be a revenue stream coming in from it when some level of normality resumes, which could add some level of value to any bids that come in, but as those revenue streams are yet untested to me, I'd say that a monetory value to this part would be difficult to put a value on. Unless I am missing something.
fairdealer
Looked at like that I think you may be at, or very close to, the truth as RF's behaviour in this does seem a little odd, to say the least.
Barchid, digging into recent history may provide a clue.
Carlsberg deal completes 30th October.
Deal to manage Brain's pubs agreed and contract exchanged 22nd December
We now know Platinum made 2 offers in December.
Ralph has made it clear following the separation of the Brewery Business his intention to build a Pub, Accomodation Business par excellent. The statement by both RF and Brains Chairman on the conclusion of the deal was extremely amicable. John Rhys of Brain's , said, "This agreement marks the formation of a lasting strategic relationship with Marstons which secures the future of Brain's Pubs"
Considering the above and now Platinum's latest, unsolicited offer, rejected, is RF inextricably linked with promises to Brains which , to him, make a deal unpalatable? Could his position change should Platinum come back with say 125p. Should he hypothetically, reject that offer, Platinum would surely make a hostile bid going over the BOD's heads.
Food for thought!
Hi extrader,
I already hold WH Smiths, BP, AIG and CCL, I just split the money from here into BP CCL and AIG, who I think longer term have a long way to go. In May, I saw an opportunity and switched my managed ISA to a self managed stocks and shares ISA with these 5 with a long term view in mind. I now think the others have a better long term growth opportunity, so cashed in here and shared the joy :-)
Well done on your exit too, as my IFA says, it isn't profit until it's taken.
Good look all. I'll still be drinking lots of Hobgoblin Gold to add to the profits :-)
bids from platinum
Others up too: MAB up 6% JDW up 5%
Momentum really in our favour, I’m staying in for a while more
Hi IanBowmer,
Similar mindset, different strategy ! Bought MARS just over 30, sold half after it doubled and put the profit into SAGA...
2 x Covid-relaxation plays , with differing horizons.
You timed your exit better than me... and Carnival and co haven't moved much yet...
Direction right, timing wrong. Story of my life ;->
ATB