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Ant
I think your 13m on this case. Poland could be big but hard to assess. 50ct payout on 700m award( i am sure they overestimate damages) so350m. Then maybe half of 25% profit share.. 35m gbp of win.too hard to call really.
But great progress
More realistically.
If profit share,
110 × 25% = 27.5m
Else multiple on capital up to 3x i would expect. But i cannot imagine they spent more than9m gbp on this. It settled pretty fast.
Also they will get 50pct of this if in fund.
But very good news. This is just 1 of 45ish investments and they keep winning! And potentially around 13m gbp profit
They haven’t won the polish case. It’s awaiting decision. But the Comet case might be worth up to £45m to them. Revaluation of share price likely now.
Combined, these two must add £20-30m? £110m and £700m cases won, LIT is now in a different league!
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/litigation-funding-60-minutes-2022-12-18/
worth a read..
July market update did state that the 27 month average was moving to 36-42 months, partly due to covid delays clogging courts but mainly due to the complexity of the cases increasing as larger ones are funded. Once booked the revenues should be larger.
Given that LIT report actual revenues not future expected returns, reported revenue will be slowed / hit and the opportunity cost has increased for any holders which could account for outflows.
If you believe that the company could book big profits it could present good entry points.
I cleared this up on email to publisher, who reverted with lcm also cc;d
they based it off a city am article. the city article was a bit sensational in title saying greenx to pocket the money, and in the body of article said it was ongoing.
this was rephrased as won money in their title when they rewrote it.
Great discussion mate. Thank you.
I am also looking more. Always good to refresh
Many thanks mate. I'll take a look.
Helpful guidance. Thank you.
Look at presentation. Full year 2021 slide 19. Shows lcm position which drives cash bridge in slide 7.
This shows sensible operations.
Investments funded from profitable realisations and 12m aud operating expenses.
It shows lcm only position.
But it shows lcm.
Thanks Gallmat - if that $45m is 3rd party contribution to Operating Cashflows then surely it should be in the top half to get to LIT's net operating cashflow. It is not explained in the notes unfortunately but to me it just looks like their Fund Management business investing in new (ongoing) cases. So not LIT's operating money, its 3rd party monies.
You do ignore the +45m. net contribition from 3rd party interests.
Look at cash flow from operating activities and financing activities. You are reading half of the cash flow statement.
Of course if lcm pay out costs on 3rd party funded cases, then the 3rd party financier has to give them the money. The bit of cashflow statement you ignore
With respect Gallmat that this not true.
See the RNS on 20 Sept 2022 on this site tab above.
Cash outflow BEFORE investing activities:
2021: $56.5m outflow
2022: $55.2m outflow
The reason for cash outflows.
We had money in organically and from raised capital.
It went out the door because we invested in cases.
Cash has come back in with profits ( in presentations ). But they thrn deploy it again.
How can we expect a big cash inflow and p&l when most of our money is still out in cases which are going to realise soon.
That was my next step. What email address did you use to confirm with green x
When researching all the litigation funding companies I look at cashflow statements and bin the P&Ls. The P&Ls are done on such different bases, cash is not. When I look at LIT we have all years since IPO showing heavy net cash outflows. Fine - initially they were building the book but then the CEO moved the long stated 2.7 year average completion estimate to over 4 years. Add to that expensive debt (13%) and allied inevitable covenant concerns and you start to think that the share price is trying to tell you something…
You will say “the Chairman keeps on buying” (which has kept me/us interested) but he was buying well north of £1….
Gallmat comments are spot on when it comes to delivery. I think we are lacking some level of shareholder communication here on a broader level. We want regular communication to investors. It was not since November 2021 if i recall correctly that we actually heard about a material resolution. That's a long time between drinks. I'm sure there is lots happening, so tell us about it!
regarding the £740M claim against Poland, there has NOT been a judgment, that article is misleading. If in doubt, go to the source by looking at the GRX news feed. Don't expect a ruling until the second half of next year (I have spoken to GRX on this myself). Disclosure, as well as been a shareholder in LIT I am a shareholder in GRX (only because i have confidence in LIT)...
Not sure how you derive no delivery from my comments.
Their cases are in the court process and theg have consistently shown excellent profits on cases won (95pct of cases)
Good idea Gallmat. There has been a lot of promise here but no delivery.
I have mailed again for reply. Be good if others can do the same
I have mailed again for reply. Be good if others can do the same
If this is a genuine win that will actually be paid up to LIT, they would have been legally bound to do an RNS.
Agree that it's misleading if not true and warrants comment.