Firering Strategic Minerals: From explorer to producer. Watch the video here.
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Started: Gallmat, 12 Jun 2024 22:48
Last post: Gallmat, 18 Jun 2024 18:28
Listen to the interview. I dont really want to post it
Hi Gallmat, some interesting snippets there thank you.
Have been through a few of the articles you referenced, the Grattan Institute report and others. I also see CS are on the hook for Callide C3 and C4 failures subsequently in 2021. I couldn't immediately see the other interesting fact you hinted might be there, any other clues please?
Many thanks.
There is another fact about the queensland class action that had not.been noted yet!
Started: Gallmat, 10 Jun 2024 11:47
Last post: Gallmat, 12 Jun 2024 17:10
Google queensland class action. Behind a paywall but you can read first paragraph
I am not surprised as lcm say they do not like cases based on testemony and want written evidence
Gallmat where did you hear this? the bit about internal memos i mean.
Lcm normally equire written evidence.
Seems like the class action has internal memos discussing naughty tactics. It would be interesting to see that in court :)
Supply shortfalls, massive artificial price spikes’: Electricity prices class action
Damning internal memos allegedly show two state-owned electricity generators devising methods to “bring price volatility” into the market for their own profits, a court has heard
Started: Forensic505, 20 Mar 2024 03:03
Last post: Gallmat, 31 May 2024 13:47
Yup.
I think we are on 25pct of award ( there was a video years ago where pct was noted).
Something that could move the dial. Pat.l also looks interesting. Up to 15pct of award on that and the RNS is inferring could be a 1 billion usd claim :)
For an example on how NOT to run a litigation funding business, look no further that Omni Bridgeway. Trading like its going out of business. I understand they have different fund structures to LCM, but i found it telling that they are up to fund 6 and cumulative performance fees to date are only ~$14M. LCM has previously charged a $15M performance fee on a single investment.
back to LCM, Queensland Energy class action goes to trial at the start of June. Do they settle prior to trial???
Not sure what did you tell us? We all know it is undervalued if that's what you mean.
What did i tell you.
Started: bobby6, 28 Mar 2024 00:08
Last post: Gallmat, 28 Mar 2024 10:11
I will make that one easy.
Lcm will 93 pct of cases.
Lcm are funding pat
Pat have huge tier1 gold.asset taken by gov of india
Indian press is saying it is worth 1 bn usd. Broker is more conseravtive at 750m usd.
Company trades around 15m usd so 50x if they get broker estimate.
Investors are waiting to find out the size of the claim.
Normally these mining litigation assets trade up to 20pct of claim value, however a final decison takes 3 to 4 years.
They might settle early
Bobby..take a look at PAT long old story on it..but rns give most info.
Queensland power. Was quoted as being a 1bn aud class action in press. Think we are on 20 to 30pct of award. Should be heard around mid year
Hi All,
new here, just starting my dd, does anyone know what are their pending arbitration cases? seems in their web there is only info of some class action lawsuits. Does anyone have a list of most impactful pending arbitration cases or know about some of them? saying who are the companies/claimants would suffice so I can research about the cases,
thanks in advance
Started: Guvvi, 19 Mar 2024 12:25
Last post: Gallmat, 19 Mar 2024 14:00
Reality is investors like the share price supported. In low liquidity people drive the price down. If company are supporting price they move onto another stock and f*#^ with that.
So benefits are huge even when they are not buying much
Yeah the debt refinancing is going to help a lot and its interesting that they arn't sure bond vs private debt re-finance. I imagine lots of fixed price money isn't quite sure what happens next - clearly they have some options.
i don't want any more dividends either that tax situation was a nightmare. Buybacks or grow the platform is fine by me.
I am trying to talk to them to share my ideas.
Seeing cases by maturity ( return proxy)
Process in timeline ( risk proxy)
Would be useful. If i know alot of deals have positive judgement already then i anticipate cash inflow and chill on debt repayment. Even though they said they could do it no issue
My point is. If they define the returns clearly into 2 sets. Then investors see it more clearly without them.having to state so much.
I would have said well 100m aud over 36m our normal realisation time. That is flagging huge gains, but hidden in appendix.
I did like that debt refinancing can be done. That is huge. Having 70m aud hanging around makes no sense. We can use that to fast track more of it.
They need to overcome in simple words why fair value is still conservative. Stating % of nav at cash invested was a good step.
I feel like they really try to get that across, the presentation started exactly in the vein you write. I guess they have to be careful not to oversell something and maybe lawyers are overly cautious.
The FD actually at one point clearly explained what you said and concluded that the shares trade well below their intrinsic value to explain buybacks.
I'm convinced that this business will be worth a heck of a lot more in 10 years time.
Started: Gallmat, 25 Jan 2024 18:51
Last post: wobble24, 13 Mar 2024 04:44
i think there might be another class action (*****is) that we have funded going to trial next week. i don't understand all the legal speak here but could be postponed?
https://www.comcourts.gov.au/pas/file/federal/p/nsd862/2018/actions
Are you looking at pat.l.
They say they might deliver notice of arbitration to gov of india. Papers said could be 1bn usd.
Lcm funded and market cap is only 11m gbp.
Could be another greenx. That traded up to 140m gbp on their 700m+ gbp mining claim.
It does make you laugh.
3 objections thrown out for bring BS.
Last remaining objection is they did not run the tribunal correctly :)
I hope they delay it longer so our multiple increases.
Slowly reeling in this win:
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02770172-6A1193001
Nice holding a stock knowing company will buy back 20k a day. Stops the normal stupid drift on aim.
Hopefully portfolio nav is increading nicely
Started: Stuartrm, 10 Jan 2024 10:40
Last post: Gallmat, 10 Jan 2024 16:33
My guess 4 times.
In fund. Probably started 2 yrs ago. 2x multiple and with hostoric performance fees double again
Good but some (any!) numbers would have been helpful....hopefully they will update again.
Yup.
I started to switch off here to daily movements.
If the company can maintain their performance metrics this stock is a monster. Comppunding at 50pct IRR is huge.
Market seems to want to see confirmation before going higher.
It seems strange they have been consistent for years, lost 3 to 4pct of cases. Are backed by high quality investors and management have never done anyting nuts. Hiding bad news, diluting needlessly, not updating investors.
The resolution of fund 1 investment RNS today is interesting. It risks getting lost in the large number of transaction in own shares RNSs that have been issued recently.
Started: Gallmat, 21 Dec 2023 23:35
Last post: Gallmat, 27 Dec 2023 09:38
Thanks for this.
Interest accrues and most likely our multiple will increase over time.
Love appeals :)
Ty
Https://stockhead.com.au/resources/indiana-scores-us110-million-payday-as-international-arbitrators-rule-in-its-favour-over-tanzania-nickel/
I found another one stating lcm get 15m usd.
I expect tanzania might resist paying and drag it out. Not worried as it was a unanimous decision, i cannot imagine an appeal where everyone changes theit mind :).
If we are lucky it will drag on and maybe our contractual multiple increases :)
Do you have a link ? I can’t find one.
News on friday. Stock suspended today due to announcement.
Tomorrow a little bit of a D-Day for Tanzania in the arbitration claim we have funded against them. Do they pay up collateral or make us seize their assets?
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02755010-6A1186862
Looks like a slam dunk case.
How can they justify at end of your contract. You pay x and get nothing. Or swap onto contract and start to pay x while owning a new phone.
Regulator is going to call them out on this. Like normal they will cheat and pocket profits and then just settle when taken to court. Easy money for them and us
Looks like we are funding this matter?
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/justin-gutmann-86b75b13_loyalty-penalty-claim-activity-7138891302783418368-Ux8i/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios
Strange price action.
In last video results presentation ceo said;
4 100 pct owned investments had positive judgements
4 in funds had positive judgements
Around another 4 had final hearings.
Given our return our investmemts are designed to give 1 to 4 multiple of inveated capital and within funds can be double, not sure why people are seeing risk to earnings.
Positive judgements are subject to appeal but we have it in our favour and while we wait time ticks on and our multiple improves!
Also in the shares presentation he implied almost unlimited support from lcm from fund investors
Started: PJT12, 9 Nov 2023 07:35
Last post: PJT12, 9 Nov 2023 07:35
"On 25 August 2023, the Company announced that IGPL had secured up to US$13.6 million in litigation financing ("Facility") with LCM Funding SG Pty Ltd ("LCM Funding" or the "Funder"). LCM Funding is a subsidiary of Litigation Capital Management Limited ("LCM"), a firm quoted on the AIM Market of the London Stock Exchange. LCM is a leading global disputes funder with significant expertise in international arbitration and cross-border disputes, including bilateral investment treaty claims over mineral resource assets. The non‐recourse Facility is to be used by IGPL in prosecuting its Treaty claims against India. If no award and/or recovery are achieved, then LCM Funding is not entitled to any repayment of the Facility. "
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/PAT/bhukia-update/16202022
Started: JMUK26, 3 Nov 2023 10:48
Last post: Gallmat, 6 Nov 2023 20:23
I just checked with ig index on spreadbet
They gave 2.25!
No deduction
Basically they messed it up with comminication.
Sure they will address it going forward.
They do so much good stuff i am going to give them a pass on this.
At least thry respond. 70pct flof companies just ignore retail :)
Thanks Stuart. Received the same response today also. Standard corporate response really. No recognition that they are listed in the uk and therefore shareholder returns should really be geared up to suit uk based shareholders not Australian shareholders. Suspect we are fighting a losing battle and they will probably lose shareholders because of it particularly if they employ a progressive dividend policy.
Reply from the CFO, received this morning:
Dear Stuart,
Your query has been passed on to me. I am sorry if this has caused you any disappointment. We rely on the information provided by our registrars at Link as we have no visibility over the underlying Shareholders tax position. The Company remits the entire dividend payment to Link (our share registrar) who are then responsible for onward payment based on the information they have.
The following is intended to provide general information to investors with respect to the dividend paid on 27 October 2023, however investors should seek their own advice:
LCM is incorporated and registered in Australia.
Australian tax resident shareholders
Australian tax resident shareholders should not be subject to withholding tax where they have provided their Tax File Number (TFN). If no TFN is provided, TFN withholding tax at 47% would be withheld and the shareholder may be able to claim this tax as a credit in their tax return.
Foreign shareholders - tax resident of jurisdictions other than Australia
Where the company has sufficient franking credits, the dividend may be fully franked and not subject to withholding tax (WHT) for foreign shareholders. To the extent the dividend is unfranked, which this dividend was, WHT is applicable to foreign shareholders at a 30% rate. The rate of withholding tax may be reduced under an applicable tax treaty and a refund obtained from the Australian Taxation Office. Alternatively, foreign shareholders may also be able to claim the WHT as a credit in their local tax return. Please seek independent advice in this regard.
For information on the tax treaty between Australia and the United Kingdom, information can be obtained at the following link Australia: tax treaties - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
Link generally require evidence of residency for their files (i.e. certificate of residency) The following website provides guidance on how to apply for a certificate of residence How to apply for a certificate of residence to claim tax relief abroad - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
I hope this was helpful but please let me know if I can assist any further.
We take all investor feedback into consideration so thank you for your email.
Regards,
Mary
I spread bet so i pay no tax.
One thing if we have double taxation treaty you will probably not need to pay tax again as you already paid it
Started: PNK50, 2 Nov 2023 15:09
Last post: Gallmat, 3 Nov 2023 16:58
They might also wait for volume.
Might not be worth a broker scooping up 10k a day for fraction of 1pct
So share buy back of Aud 10m = approx £5.27m - buying back shares for approx 10 months they should be buying back on average £527k per month. In October they did £80k.......
I just wanted to say that i really appreciate your posts.
You always share info that is good and helps me.
So thankyou
The net is closing in on another pay day:
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02735691-6A1178828?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
Yup.
But they are done at broker discression.
There is a wierd mismatch here.
Shareholders benefit ultimately if they buy it cheap. So broker lets it drift, not pushing up price.
On flip side shareholders want price to go up.
So there is a conflict
Certainly pretty poor to lose 30% of the dividend when this is listed in the uk. They need to scrap the dividend and stick to share buy backs as this is not looking after the shareholders at all. They either don’t care or it’s been poorly thought out.
I've had a reply from HL saying there is nothing they can do and that i need to talk to the foreign tax office ( i presume Australian tax office )...
I've just emailed IR today at LCM to see what they have to say about it. I hold a good chunk in ISAs and SIPPs so this is not fun.
Hi - have you heard anything back? My impression is that only the unfranked part should have withholding tax, the franked part should not have any withholding tax.
I wrote to cfo.
The impression in presentation was we are paying in full. I dont really care what you put in a footnote
If you present the div is x from uk company we expect x. It is wrong for the company to think investors have to dig deeper to get full picture. A presentation summarises the important facts for investors so this has beem summarises incorrectly
Found this on another board after not finding any mention of franking in their communications:
in LIT's final results (section 18. Equity - dividends) it says: "On 18 July 2023, the Directors declared a partially franked final dividend for the year ended 30 June 2023 of 2.25 pence per ordinary share, to be paid on 27 October 2023 ..."
The company really should have been clearer about this, as most mentions ive seen in RNS's and else where just say plain dividend, no mention of the franking malarky which means non Aussie holders like us end up with 30% less that as far as I'm aware cant be claimed back, they should have given the UK holders a clear idea of the amount we would recieve after this franking deduction, you'd expect better from a legal business to be crystal clear on details such as this, very disappointing, I like the prospects of the company but this is making me reconsider the size of my position in them for sure.
Started: TheDogFarther, 22 Sep 2023 16:08
Last post: Gallmat, 26 Sep 2023 17:14
Agreed.
But it is enough to mop up some of the silly stuff
The share buyback programme is around 3% of the market cap so won't set the world alight but should underpin the price once it starts.
How can we track?.
Thx for good posts.
The share buy back still needs some paperwork completing before it can start. Hopefully that will mop up the 10pcters
They are involved with Panthera 13.6m$ . Big court case tomorrow
Started: mickey1122, 21 Sep 2023 17:33
Last post: mickey1122, 21 Sep 2023 17:33
Started: Maccc, 21 Sep 2023 15:24
Last post: Maccc, 21 Sep 2023 15:24
Here's an interview just released with CEO Patrick Moloney:
https://youtu.be/EuIhhP4zb8o?si=PxVG2mdOCuLt_Ook
Started: CommandoKai, 19 Sep 2023 22:08
Last post: Forensic505, 20 Sep 2023 12:28
Job done here. Very tidy return in 3 weeks. I heard their house broker has completely ignored the Fair Values in their latest coverage (not seen it myself) but enough to make me bow out at this stage. GLA.
The fact that he likes the company was enough for me to invest .
Commando - ST doesn’t give a new price target in the article . GLA
Has given it another buy rating today: https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2023/09/19/a-robust-outlook-makes-this-legal-stock-a-buy/
Not sure what time it was posted, in or out of market hours, maybe give the share another boost tomorrow and when it makes it in to the paper edition either this Friday or next.
Unfortuntely I can only see the first part, any subscriber wanna let slip if he gave a target price at the end please?
But remember that's only a 1 year target I believe.
Started: CommandoKai, 14 Sep 2023 15:05
Last post: Gallmat, 19 Sep 2023 16:47
Think it was lower but that was 2 yrs ago.
Im a big fan of Simons. It was him that put me onto this little gem .
Looks like they have paid off all the expensive high yield bridge funding and now going to Bond market where they will get much better pricing on a much better track record. Textbook. Simon Thompson of Investors Chronicle has always been a fan of LIT. Covid got it the way of course but I'd expect him to write soon to at least reiterate his 160-180p (I think it was ?) target price. It is now performing as he anticipated - just two years later due to Covid !
Apologies i missed a footnote. So seems FV around 100+. Not bad not amazing.
Hopefully underpins current valuation. Upside is from more 3rd pty funds and maybe bond going forward.
This is one to hold and let it compound
Hi Gallmat, could you detail your NAV calc please? thanks
Started: Forensic505, 19 Sep 2023 07:52
Last post: Guvvi, 19 Sep 2023 09:15
Most interesting thing for me was the mention a few times of the reducing competition in this space too. What a wonderful place to be operating in if this is the case with a model like ours in demand!
I plan to hold for a while. They have great roic.
I was moat interested in the bond. More they can scale the better
Exactly as hoped for….plus some! The buyback was a welcome addition which will do wonders for the share price.
Started: time.will.tell, 19 Sep 2023 07:12
Last post: time.will.tell, 19 Sep 2023 07:12
Nice results. Future looks bright.
The share buyback shows them looking after their shareholders with the main aim to grow the SP. Which benefits all invested. Will be adding to my position.
Started: Forensic505, 6 Sep 2023 18:19
Last post: Gallmat, 13 Sep 2023 14:09
Agree it is material That is why we rallied. From 70s to here
This replicates the region of chairman purchase.
Just not sure we are going to see a nav of 150
Honestly not that bothered as i like the company and they have good ROIC, i cannot see it going back to 70s where i accumulated the position.
Obvious point: there would be no point undertaking the exercise if the results were not materially different to those under the historical cost convention.
Could be upside might not.
So we can only manage downside.
Just remember burford were subject to short attack due to muddy waters saying their accounting was too optimistic.
There is a good posibility this company will go for conservatism in their policy - they held put on historical cost for long time.
Gallmat - if you look at the companies that have used Fair Value from the outset (BUR and MANO), the Fair Value element of their profits vary but can be very material. BUR's model looks most similar to LIT (funding international litigation in the broadest sense) and on BUR's Argentine case alone the Fair Value was something around $700m profit. Not suggesting LIT's actual numbers will be anything close to that, but I dont think we can rule out the materiality of this until we see it on LIT's results Tuesday next week I believe.
Not sure how dramatic personally.
They had book value of 50m gbp. Add in some good realisations 15m ontop.= 65.
Then 45 at 2x multiple?
The main question is how aggressive is their fair value policy.
The only good thing going forward is at least the values should increase with time as investments progress
The only marker i have is chairman was happily buying at circa 110 when we he started, so i think little downside but not sure on upside
Started: Forensic505, 4 Sep 2023 11:17
Last post: Gallmat, 4 Sep 2023 16:56
I think there is nothing much to read into todays action. We had good idea this was the value of settleement before rns.
Only thing that could move rns is fv accounting but that probably also depends on a fickle market.
The company doea what they and quietly build value. I just hold it long term and ignore the noise
Pros and cons. Fair value without historical allows the trolls to play.
Not sure why this is valued here. If you found a company with roic of 70%+. You would not rven value it at book value.
Not checking in on this so much as long term hold. When chairman scooped up 5m gbp sub 1 pound it was pretty clear. He ran hug investment banks and is on iG board. Clever guy
Or watch the share price in the coming days. Don't think you can read anything into a minor fall in the share price today. The spread has widened which is generally a sign of lower liquidity and you could interpret it that there is a shortage of stock (or lack of trade, but likely the shortage of stock on current prices).
The spread has been between 5% and 7% since Friday, somewhat higher than it's been for a long period of time.
Let's see what happens. Personally, I think this will be GBP120 by the end of the year, if not by the end of the month.
One can ony assume from the almost 3% fall in share price today since the details of the settlement were announced that these sums were considered by the market to be less than had been priced into the share price. The valuation that is placed on the company seems to me to be influenced primarily by the vagaries of Court decisions. In short, Courts come up with such bizarre judgements at times that no one wants to count their chickens before they are hatched. The result is the share price of LIM is likely to follow the awards that are actually made much more closely than the awards that pundits think ought to be made, irrespective of which method of accounting is used by the company in its accounts.
I think their plan is to do both Gallmat (which is helpful).
The aspect I do like about the Fair Value method is that it does give the reader the Board's view of the value of the in-process cases. As they are delivering 2-3x cost, the difference in the inherent value of the business will be substantial. Looking forward to their results which are due out very soon now.
Started: gls44, 29 Jul 2023 08:41
Last post: wobble24, 31 Aug 2023 12:07
To us i suspect about $33M AUD before splitting with fund 1 based on draft numbers to the court.
What is final payout
Federal court of Australia just approved the PFAS class action settlement.
News inbound.
Thanks very useful. So 3x return. Or 6x if within fund.
Hopefully they drag the payment out so our payment happens later when we get 4x
Started: TeelaBrown, 27 Jul 2023 17:59
Last post: TeelaBrown, 27 Jul 2023 17:59
Simon Thompson has provided an update of his recent Buy tip for Litigation Capital Management. The article reviews the lack of impact from the Supreme Court ruling and the benefits of moving from Book Value to Fair Value.
The article concludes:
"Furthermore, having delivered a record performance in the financial year to 30 June 2023, the board plan to declare a dividend per share of 2.25p when LCM releases results in September, a pay-out that analysts at Investec had not anticipated. The brokerage expects LCM to report 70 per cent higher revenue of A$51.7mn (£27mn) in the 12-month period and increase pre-tax profit by a quarter to A$25.3mn. On this basis, expect earnings per share (EPS) of 16.4c (8.6p). Investec expects EPS to almost double to 30.6c (16p) in the new financial year, implying the shares are rated on a forward price/earnings (PE) ratio of five.
So, LCM is well-funded, delivering positive news flow, has a modest earnings multiple and the forthcoming results will reveal material hidden value. The shares also trade on 1.8 times spot book value under conservative cash accounting – and therefore I re-iterate my buy call (‘Litigation funder LCM makes an eye-watering return’, 19 June 2023). Buy."
Started: Guvvi, 26 Jul 2023 15:20
Last post: Gallmat, 27 Jul 2023 15:12
I wrote to cfo and highlighted that they should have a section in presentations on legal landscape.
Getting the answer from a question not answered in a presentation and uploaded as non core is not good enough. Clearly it was a core ?
If they are aware of it, we should cover in presentation. They should also have an RNS ready to go.
I fully understand the board taking time to ensure that the RNS is right and not rushing one out. A rushed RNS with any errors could cause appreciable damage to the share price. Act in haste and repent at leisure, as the saying goes. Regarding the price dip, yes it did necessitate an unscheduled change of underwear but longer term the share price should recover as favourable results come through. As a long term holder, I will not lose any sleep over this wobble.
Yes definitely agree. I was surprised when they hadn't. Thankfully they've come out with a clear statement confirming the same early this morning.
Thanks for the post.
I did not actually recall this question and only discovered the Q and A section yesterday.
I also think they should advise on these issues as part of the presentation.
Hello, first time posting - I was about to post the link to the IMC presentation but see the actual Questions & response are already up. I asked these two questions as was viewing this issue as a possibly significant risk, and at the least could lead to real uncertainty, to LCM's business and it was directly in relation to the matter for which we have this decision today. They did not answer the questions on the day of the presentation on 14th March 2023; I did follow up and these were subsequently answered in the recorded and uploaded Q&A.
The answer in relation to the first question is absolutely relevant and important however I do think the answer to the second question 'whether they had advised PI's or investors who participate in the funds' as to the how the case might affect LCM's business, is also of real importance. Patrick answered that they had not reported this matter as they did not perceive this as a risk. Given their line of work which is all based on quantitfying risk and the fact they will have access to the best advice, this answer made me far more comfortable.
That's not to say there isn't any risk and it's certainly appropriate for LCM to clarify the position ASAP but I think this part of the answer should also allay investors' concerns somewhat. In addition, on 17th March 2023 the Chairman and Patrick (CEO) purchased c. £1.2m and £111k of shares respectively at £0.71 per share.
Sorry if this is repetition but I wasn't sure the second question had been noted and as a shareholder I much appreciated this part of the response.
Best wishes,
Mike