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The vast majority of sells today above 16p, seems to be holding up so far......
Me too Leedsman!
I think the ongoing effect of the buyback will see a slow & steady rise in SP as intended; all I meant by 'hold a steady 16p' was for the SP to get to a firm 16p today and not slip back again, as it often seems to do.
We have waited a long time, will be worth waiting a little longer with any luck.
Thanks Patshare. I am a novice here but your words of 'hold a steady 16p' doesn't sound very positive to me. Should it not be rising based on all this? Those holding shares still are surely doing so based on wanting a higher sale price.. on that basis should this not force SP up as they continue to buy?
Thanks again for all your updates.
All of Friday's big buys were Investec - they amassed a staggering 15,827,052 shares!
The total so far is now 48,467,792, about 34.62% of target.
Will be interesting to see if that affects the SP today and if it can hold a steady 16p.
Some big volumes showing as 'unknown' trades here today, over 15.5 million shares so far, looking at the price guessing buys?
If that's down to Investec it will be really interesting to see Monday's RNS and if it has any effect on the SP.
It will pass past 19p with there recent investment and further positive investments with the cash they have
This is good I wonder if it will travel past the 19 pence mark
Clearly yesterday's last minute big buys were Investec as we suspected, a further 6,756,572 shares bought back!
Total now 32,640,740, about 23.3% of target.
At this rate - just over 2M a day - they could approach the 140M mark within 50 days.
Onwards & upwards from here with any luck.
crackin uptrend chart....on here,this year
Mystery solved - thank you zoolook.
Will be interesting to see if all three trades were investecs.
Bigwil7
They have obtained a waiver from the mandatory takeover rule
More here: https://www.ldgplc.com/result-of-general-meeting-31-january-2022/
Just seen that Bigwil7, has to be Investec mopping up surely.
I'll do an update in the morning, see where we are then.
Has to be a firm 16p tomorrow surely.
Yes Patshare I did mean 18p rather than 18%. Tomorrow's rns will be interesting - three trades totalling about 12M after hours @ 16p, they appear to be getting a move on.
Looking forward to seeing where this will all take us.
Hi Bigwil7, guessing you mean 18p not 18%?
Yes, it looks that way to me, I think they will reach their goal of closing the discount gap well before they have bought back anything like 140M shares.
Further investing should help and if they re-brand like zoolook suggests to more accurately reflect their raison d'etre then that could help too.
Looks like we backed a winner!
Hi zoolook, yes, that would make sense, I see what you are saying now.
Seems to me with one or two starting to buy into this that they are going to reach 18% target well before they buyback the 140M shares.
When they buy back another 45M approx DBay's holding will represent about 30%, what will happen then? Do they have to make an offer for the co?
A rename / new ticker would raise some attention and highlight to the investor community that they are no longer tied to logistics investments bolstered by a few investor presentations should all help put the share price on a more sensible footing. A large discount to cash/NAV can be self fulfilling as potential new investors assume are put off assuming there is something wrong
I think that's right, the buyback will close the discount gap and further shrewd investing will drive the SP above 19p.
In the context of the August 2023 deadline to complete the buyback then they have done well to mop up almost a fifth already, maybe now as slow as it first appears.
Not sure about renaming/rebranding, at least they don't need to worry about renaming a fleet of lorries!!
Their stated hope was that the buyback would serve to reduce the significant discount which was 13.38p vs 18.77p. Hard to know what price they will continue to buy shares back at but they have until August 2023 and given the speed they have acted on with the (initial?) block purchase of CTH shares there is likely to be a significant reinvestment of the unallocated cash before then that will increasingly drive the share price.
This is a good opportunity for private investors to get a piece of action with a proven Private Equity operation with benefits of liquidity that a public listing provides.
I hope the Board are looking at a renaming/rebranding as part of a marketing campaign to raise the profile of the investment case here.
Hi Patshare,
Thanks for that. Makes sense. Certainly heading in the right direction at the moment. Long may it continue.
Cheers
Hi Leedsman,
Hmm.... I really don't know but somehow I expect not; they only said they would buy back 'up to' 20% of the shares in issue i.e. 140 million, so presumably they will stop buying back when the SP gets to around 19p. In that scenario they shouldn't need to pay more than 19p but who knows?
I suspect we'll mostly all be happy to get to 18-19p then re-evaluate this investment. A lot will depend on what else they choose to invest in or begin paying dividends.
Happy to update, not sure if much help but good to see how the buyback is going.
Hi Patshare
New 'poster' here. Given you last comment about some exiting at a fair price and below value could that mean that in order to get the buyback target Dbay have that they may be prepared to pay 'over the odds' once they get close to their target given that the average buy price of those they have acquired would more than likely still be below the actual 19p value?
Thanks also for your daily updates.
Thanks for that, Patshare. Good points well made and I totally agree with you. I'm happy with the slowly, slowly two steps forward one back. All positive.
Just as a caveat to that, clearly a lot of investors also choosing to 'exit at a fair price' so the volumes sold outweighing buys including any that Investec are trying to buyback, so a bit 2 steps forward 1 step back each day I think.
I will continue to hold and keep watching & waiting on this one.
Hi pennytrader, no, good question but asking the wrong person as I'm pretty new to all this and just applying 'patshare logic' to everything!.
However.... I think you answered your own question; the c7.5% increase in the CareTech SP is only c7.5% of the £6.33M that LDG/DBay have invested from their £134M cash pot so a minor positive effect, and the buyback is only at 18.5% of the full target amount, so yes, I think you are expecting too much too soon.
The buyback alone should get the SP to around 19p but as we can already see this is going to be a long & slow process with the odd hitch along the way, and obviously any market jitters around Ukraine and wider global issues could affect this regardless.
On the plus side the bulk of LDG's asset is still cash and the investment in CareTech seems a wise one, so right now about a safe an investment as you can get (IMO) and should rise slowly but steadily from here, and that is probably all we can ask for.
Better than the alternative like the rest of my portfolio!