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Started: eviking, 11 Jun 2024 15:54
Last post: Bergcarls, 19 Jun 2024 08:50
APH up another 8%
Results out
This should follow it up
APH up 8%
Good info eviking, I literaly had no idea who this guy is. Impressive CV.
On that basis do you think he sees a longer term potentially large upside to LDG? It would seem so. Doesn't sound like dumping for a decent profit is what he's about.
Seems more likely he is putting great faith in DBay to turn it into a cash machine and grow their and his investment significantly from where it is now, maybe even increase his holding in time?
Only time will tell.
Richard Griffiths was appointed chairman of Sarossa on 1 December 2017. He has had a long career founding, running, investing in and advising growth companies. Previously, Richard was founder and executive chairman of the Evolution Group PLC, a diversified financial group, taking it from start up to FTSE 250 membership within 5 years. Richard subsequently went on to become founder and chairman of ORA Capital Partners Plc in 2006 and later distributed the company's profits and assets back to shareholders in 2013, before setting up ORA Limited in Jersey in 2014 and at which he remains chairman. In addition, Richard has been a venture or strategic investor in many successful UK companies including IP Group Plc, Nanoco Group Plc, Tissue Regenix Group Plc, GVC Holdings Plc, Oxford Nanopore Technologies Limited and Plectrum Petroleum Limited (sold to Cairn Energy Plc).
Hi guys, certainly looking more interesting here these days, still not invested (again) though as having disasters everywhere else!!
I would just add a word of caution though FWIW (what do I know, see above?!), be careful this Richard Griffiths fellow doesn't dump the whole 15.3% holding for a decent profit and crash the SP.
Still watching.....
Started: Bergcarls, 5 Jun 2024 15:45
Last post: Bergcarls, 5 Jun 2024 15:45
Nice
Started: Dartron, 29 May 2024 10:25
Last post: Bazzaman, 29 May 2024 12:36
IC article yesterday has helped.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2024/05/28/welsh-wizard-sees-value-in-this-stock-and-so-do-we/
My interpretation of events. DYOR.
Stobart group had 12% of the shares here (64M), then they changed their name to Esken. Then they went in to administration against their largest bond holder Cyrus Capital Partners.
Cyrus Capital Partners, L.P. were as of last week 0.61 short. Knowing that the administrators would have to sell off the 64M shares at a low price. Have probably been forward selling for a while. This is also the reason that LDG stopped the buy backs IMO. Enter Richard Griffiths who bough most of it. Well done to anyone else who got some at nearly 40% discount to NAV here. Griffiths is usually an activist, so further events could unfold.
Stobart Group Limited holding 64,149,500
Griffiths ( increase 15.28% - Existing 3.76) = 11.52% * total shares = 525,912,191 * .1152 = 60,585,084
Cyrus Capital Partners, L.P. 0.61 short = 0.0061 * 525,912,191 = 3,208,064
Price is recovering now, as the overhang is gone. APH is looking brighter too. I got a few last week, but wish I had bought more now. Dare we say the low is in now. A break of 12p would end the down trend.
Started: TargetPractice, 14 May 2024 16:19
Last post: ALiverpoolgent, 25 May 2024 11:52
Is it agreed that Richard Griffiths thinks the shares are good value at present levels? He surely wouldn't have increased his holding so much unless he thought that was the case? ALgent.
Afternoon PatShare. Thanks for coming back. Good luck to you too. Bought a few more this afternoon. Some large transactions going through. An interesting share for sure. I think the upside exceeds the downside. Famous last words maybe! ALgent.
Welcome to the board ALiverpoolgent, and good luck with your investment.
What you are saying is probably right, sub-10p could be a good entry point here but no one is really sure why it is sub-10p, the picture is far from clear. Sure there investments may not be performing as they would like, but the share buyback was meant to reduce the discount to NAV and didn't seem to work at all.
As you say, likely to be a long-term investment case from here, and no panic required. At least hey don't have to fundraise like some, plenty of cash in the bank for further deals to be done.
Good afternoon PatShare and all. It's not a clear picture that's for sure. However, I bought a few today. Buying is essentially saying that you think they're good value and have confidence in DBAY's abilities to make themselves, and ourselves therefore, some money. The present situation will take a while to unravel and information is woefully short and what there is not all good. DBAY will make mistakes and investors must expect that. However, I do not doubt they get more things right than wrong. I suppose it's all about probabilities. I think they'll probably make me money though I may have to wait awhile. I see no cause for panic at all. ALgent.
Hey Leedsman, still here then?
I'm probably less of an expert than anyone (on any BB!) and I have even less of a clue as to what is going on with this? Can't help thinking there is much smoke and mirrors and DBay are doing very nicely out of it, thank you!
Under 10p though? Interesting for sure.
Still watching....
Started: PatShare, 11 May 2024 12:46
Last post: TargetPractice, 14 May 2024 16:49
Good spot re Esken's holding Dartron. I originally misread your message and thought you were saying LDG owned some Esken (which would be v bad) and not vice versa! 11% of such an illiquid company will be difficult to shift so could be an overhang on the stock for a while unless they work out a deal...
you are right pat. im on a paper loss for sure. it sounded great in the investors chronicle just before the buy backs! i dont know if you read the other board, but mentioned over there, i think the current issue is that esken (former stobart) went in to administration, they own a chunk of these shares. so ldg has cancelled the buy back, hoping that the administrators are forced to sell the shares back to ldg really cheap. this would be good for the nav discount here, and im sure simon thompson could tell us again how the discount is going to narrow, whether it then would or not i dont know. i guess there is nothing stopping esken just using a broker and doing a book build to sell the shares? either way, these shares could be very cheap soon, i think that explains the selling. then of co****, largest holding alliance pharma, complete s**t show. my only comment there is that blackrock had 1% short, it looked like they really hurried to cover it, driving the price up about 30% in a few days. did they have competition for the shares from dbay? or why are dbay not buying? doesnt say much about the aph holding.
i took 10000 on friday just to lower my average a little, in the hope that one of the events mentioned above does give me an exit. because if you compare this with a small cap investment trust, that pays a dividend and is better regulated, and is rising share price (most are), then this is a terrible investment. what ever st says.
in february he said this:
estimated net cash backs up 67 per cent of share price
holdings worth £59mn in the price for £21mn
37 per cent share price discount to spot nav
.... but it isn't pretty.
I seem to recall a long time ago (in a galaxy far far away?) that DBay were going to turn this into the proverbial golden goose?
It may have made DBay plenty of money but nothing yet for most shareholders; I got out with a reasonable profit 2 years ago but guessing plenty didn't, still waiting for the share buybacks to give them 'fair value to exit' but now nursing big paper losses?
Note to LDG - the buyback isn't working, not achieving it's intended outcome of raising the SP. Why continue with it?
It's a strange one for sure.
I had forgot / didnt know that we had a bit of TMG.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/TMG/notification-of-major-holdings/16199909
It has received an offer, looks like LDG doubled their money. (going by share price on 13th Nov). Brave bison is another good stock to own, and has large owners already - lord Ashcroft.
unsolicited conditional proposal regarding a possible offer by Brave Bison for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of MISSION. Such offer comprised an all-share offer at an exchange ratio of 11.5 Brave Bison shares for each ordinary share in MISSION (the "Possible Offer"). Based on the terms of the Possible Offer and the closing market prices of MISSION and Brave Bison shares on 29 April 2024, being the last trading day prior to receipt of the Possible Offer, the Possible Offer valued each MISSION share at approximately 29 pence
Last post: Sandyman, 9 May 2024 15:15
Here we come!!
Started: PatShare, 26 Apr 2024 19:40
Last post: Bergcarls, 29 Apr 2024 07:03
I think a huge rise in s.p coming. Starting today .
Just as a very rough calculation, we had (from memory) around £130m in cash. Ldg has bought shares in various companies , but still retained a large cash holding. All the investments are fine apart from the APH investment. This has fallen and its this decline solely responsible for the £12m loss this year.
So my very rough calc is £130m minus £12m loss = £118m. Divided by shares in issue 525m and you get around 22p per share.
Interesting.... they said in 2023 they could buyback up to 20% of the shares in issue but so far, after 12 months, have only bought back about 6.6%....
Still watching....
Last post: barneysmb, 23 Apr 2024 07:54
No rise, glad i'm out.
Expecting a share price rise over the next few weeks.
No way the company is getting Shareholders to vote for a share buy back and then only buy back a fraction of the planned shares.
Obviously the company had an obligation to shareholders wanting to stay invested to buy shares back as cheaply as possible. However it also has an obligation to shareholders wanting to exit and also get the SP nearer the NAV. These were the reasons the company stated when requesting the permission for the shareback , so I think buyback volume must increase next few weeks.
Despite the drop in APH share price the NAV must still be round 19p ish. So there is no reason whatsoever for the company not to buyback the full amount .
All my personal views
Finally out of this dog s*** of a share, with a smidgen of profit.
Started: barneysmb, 7 Mar 2024 12:17
Last post: Ishy12, 13 Mar 2024 12:08
When is the deadline ?
I reckon buy back volume will increase significantly over the next few months. Especially up to deadline date.
Buyback volume seems to be decreasing quite a bit now.... anything to read into that and what might happen when that comes to an end ?
Started: PatShare, 6 Dec 2023 18:02
Last post: Leedsman, 7 Mar 2024 09:24
Long wait I reckon.
Not selling until 24p
They can still get to whatever figure they want to by being more aggressive. Low hanging fruit gone so may have to be offering more now hence pushing the price up. They need to get to 16/17p for mine and am hopefuly they will.
Good work.
Maybe this is finally having the desired effect on the SP, looks to have been rising slow & steady for the last month from a low of 11.30 up to 13.8 today, and some sizeable trades happening.
Still watching....
Just checking on the buy back..
Started 4th April, plan to purchase up to 20% of stock.
Currently has purchased and cancelled 5.39% (30,295,958 shares).
The Share Buyback will end no later than on the conclusion of the annual general meeting of the Company in 2024 - which is in May. So likely they will make it to 10% in that time. They can always continue it next year I suppose.
Started: stargate, 29 Dec 2023 22:03
Last post: PatShare, 2 Jan 2024 10:29
Interesting, but transport sector chart has no relevance here as LDG no longer involved in transport.
Good to see the SP rising though for anyone invested here.
Still watching....
Two month sideways accumulation, congestion, broken for third consecutive day, which is bullish. However the transport sector chart shown no success in trying to break up overhead resistance. Similar situation with the top risers today. LDG, has reached the vicinity of a medium down trend line, today, so treat with caution, when the sector chart is still below overhead resistance. The sp, may react back to former resistance, now support at 12, an opportunity to buy.
Started: PatShare, 19 Oct 2023 14:14
Last post: Money_Hoarder_95, 4 Dec 2023 16:55
Good to see Alliance Pharma shares finishing at 40p.
The SP of APH is half what it was just 6 months ago, that's a pretty terrible picture. Is it this decline that's having a knock-on effect to LDG SP maybe?
It seems Kempen Capital Management N.V. have just bought 10.189070% of APH so they must see some potential there.
Still watching....
Someone else has announced that they have taken 10% of APH, but we dont know where the shares came from yet.
Dbay combined hold about 20% from memory.
Whats wrong here? Looking at the bigger picture, this pays no yield. Why would you buy this when you can buy similar trusts and earn near 10% dividend? I hold here, and would like to average down, but that is my exact dilemma. I expect Ill wait for it to bounce before I buy. I would also be happy to cash out at NAV or close, if that suited Dbay.
They might be thinking along those lines and save the fee's of LDG being listed.
... to send this down towards 11p?
Is it the Sp weakness of APH. I understand they own a big stake here? I presume they still do?
Very odd indeed. The non-exec director was 71 years old, so it was probably not unexpected.
Last post: Truthfactory, 21 Nov 2023 18:49
It’s a company absolutely controlled by the IOM entity-that’s why it’s SP is sliding
Any sells at this price are good news for Shareholders.
Company has complete control over SP. If they want to raise the S P they can just raise the share buyback buy order everyday.
This is not happening yet as the company has a duty to shareholders to buy these shares back as cheaply as possible.
Started: eysenck, 18 Oct 2023 17:36
Last post: eysenck, 18 Oct 2023 17:36
At 14p Thompson wrote that LDG was "anomalously priced", it's even more anomalously priced now. Do the management just eventually give up and say that they can't close the NAV/SP gap, or are there other options to let holders out.
Started: Dartron, 21 Sep 2023 07:49
Last post: Dartron, 21 Sep 2023 07:49
Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/LDG/finsbury-food-group-investment-update-brk5lhsj0584ylq.html
Sounds like we will retain a stake of the privately owned company, for the dividends currently.
Started: Dartron, 20 Sep 2023 07:55
Last post: Dartron, 20 Sep 2023 16:10
Pretty straight forward, if the buy out goes ahead, our 11M shares will get bought for £1.10p each. By my calculations we paid an average of 79p for them. 31p x 11.76M = £3,545,600 gain, about the 23% they mention.
We are not buying FIF, we do not have to worry about what to happens to it afterwards. I think that is ok.
At least that is my assumption, I suppose its possible we remain invested after it is taken private, that could be even better?. What will Dbay do with it? Can they flip it for more? C'mon this is exciting!
LDG, This type of investment is similar to a closed end fund, and really the holding time for a such a fund should be about 3 to 5 years. I expect things will be very different then, look at something like PIN historically (as that does not pay a dividend).
Its a poor time for for AIM, small caps and these funds so perhaps an entirely different investment needs to be considered for those dissatisfied here. I like the concentrated exposure to a few more small caps, and the expertise Dbay can provide.
The way I see it is Dbay make money and Investors get to buy a company with investments at a discount,all backed by huge cash ,and everybody makes money....All underpinned by the company buying in the market with their own cash....What no to like....ST certainly likes ,and he is usually right.....made plenty on his investments...
Thank you Dartron.
If you read my posts you'll see I was invested here but not currently, I just find it all very interesting.
Understand how this investment works? Let me see.... is it that DBay make a load of money and private investors don't see any of it? Probably.
Still watching....
Update from ST of IC?....Could be imminent?
You should probably sell if you don't understand how this investment works.
I spoke too soon....
Who bought 10,000,000 shares or spent £1M? Whichever figure is correct, that is bold, they must know something surely?
It definitely wasn't me though, that is far too rich for me 😉. Maybe there will be an RNS in the morning that might shed some light on it?
Maybe some DBay shenanigans? Hmm....
Interesting.... still watching....
Started: JAdams5000, 18 Sep 2023 14:36
Last post: JAdams5000, 18 Sep 2023 14:36
Can anyone remember ever seeing such a large buy?
Currently underwater here but convinced this will come good
Last post: PatShare, 16 Sep 2023 08:39
.... presumably stands for Long Dull Groan....
I'm still watching out of interest but it's not an easy watch. Probably the slowest BB I've ever seen, seems like there are only 4 or 5 investors here plus me keeping an eye on what is - or rather isn't - happening.
I used to think I was a patient person - until I started investing! Since then I have found I have no patience when it comes to the performance of shares and the Stock Market and has led me to make some terrible decisions, hence my PF is an absolute mess with far too much money tied up in high risk ventures and all underwater. Hey ho, maybe I'll get lucky...
I did make some money on LDG though, one of my few successes.
Patience definitely required here though. A lot of patience.
Still watching...
Started: PatShare, 13 Jul 2023 22:38
Last post: Dartron, 14 Sep 2023 22:13
Still here, id say its getting exciting. I missed the IC article, it didn't make it to the paper version.
I think a big factor here will be an outcome over at APH.I think LDG have 21% now of APH. APH is still in the grips of 2 short sellers, GLG and Blackrock.. I expect they are waiting for the announcement regarding the appeal over the court case. The only thing at stake now is whether APH have successfully appealed the 7.1M fine (I think unlikely) and whether Peter Butterfield gets struck off, over the incident. The latter doesn't really matter to me, APH have already restructured management. I think APH will be the jewel in the crown once all this is put to bed. Maybe DBay can find a buyer for it, or reverse this in to it?
LDG is doing as well as many other closed end funds etc. I think its worth holding.
Lastly, several times I have seen those cancelled trades above 14p, something going on?
Yes its very boring no carot for waiting sulk
Also sitting and waiting. It's taking so long that I'm beginning to think that a bank account would give better yields.
Nope. Still here and still waiting...
Nice one eviking, I'll have a read.
I was beginning to think no one was here anymore.....
Still watching....
Started: barneysmb, 23 Jun 2023 08:16
Last post: PatShare, 27 Jun 2023 20:17
Thanks @metis20, saved me a job 😉
Seems like slow progress, maybe holders are reluctant to give up their shares unless the SP increases? If that were the case shouldn't it create a vacuum and push the SP up, or will he SP only rise if LDG can get their hands on enough shares?
Or will any increase generated by the buyback be negated my market conditions and market sentiment? Hmm....
And how are LDG's investments performing?
I still think DBay will wait until the SP rises - if it rises - and then offload another big chunk of their holding in LDG like they did last time. Time will tell.
Eyes open but no cash to invest at the moment 🤔
£1.85m spent (excluding expenses) to date on the current buyback.
"The Board, however, expects to limit the total consideration for the Further Buyback to an aggregate of £15.0m."
12.2m shares bought back to date during the current buyback.
".. LDG today announces the commencement of a share buyback programme to purchase up to 112,352,944 ordinary shares ...The Share Buyback will end no later than on the conclusion of the annual general meeting of the Company in 2024"
Approx buyback period is 13 months - almost 3 months of that has passed - so approx. 21% of the total time allocated has passed, approx. 12% of the £15m has been spent and approx 11% of the max. no of shares permitted in this buyback have been purchased.
Hi Bergcarls "There was a guy on this bb that was going to report progress but he's not posted for a while"
Some people eh? So unreliable! At least when I covered the previous buyback I stuck with it and updated on an almost daily basis; I would have covered this one too but as not currently invested didn't feel the need.
Still watching though 😉
You say that they will have to... But look at MBH, they are doing a very similar thing, and hardly buying any. Then when the date runs out, they just extend it. I dont see why LDG will push the price up in this market. I also speculate that the NAV has decreased a little on the investments. So all in all, no better than anywhere else. I cant see the SP higher in 2023.
I did the maths a couple of weeks back.
They'd bought back about 7% of the shares and used up approx 15/20% of the time They will have to start buying more soon , which will push up the s.p
Also people willing to sell at these low levels will dry up.
There was a guy on this bb that was going to report progress but he's not posted for a while
Started: Bergcarls, 12 Jun 2023 12:59
Last post: Truthfactory, 21 Jun 2023 23:31
Esken in a spot of bother and they hold a lot of LDG stock-might be holding this share down
Not if they have any sense, low margins and massive overheads as I understand it, and too many headaches.
I think DBay/LDG had their 'success' in distribution when they flipped Stobart and turned it into a pot of cash (somehow, still not quite sure how?) and should probably leave distribution and haulage alone.
Clearly their investment strategy is on a different road now :-)
Any chance of LDG putting a proposal in ?
Started: Leedsman, 17 May 2023 10:32
Last post: PatShare, 25 May 2023 08:14
I might stop watching, it's a bit like watching paint dry.
Knowing my luck though I'd miss something and wish I'd been in.......
Still watching.... a bit.... from the sidelines ;-)
Patshare ldg sp
Moving along nothing to see lol
I expect DBay will offload a big chunk of their shares at the right price when the time comes, like before.
Still watching.
5% bought for 5.5% of total planned cost yet been buying at approx 15p. Does that stack up. Surely they will go over budget if the share price goes up and they have to pay more per Share??
Buyback - up to 112m shares - max spend £15m - to finish by May 2024 AGM. Buyback has been running for about 12% of the max time allocated. Approx. 5% of the 112m have been bought back for approx 5.5% of max spend. Daily volumes have more than doubled recently so maybe they will have moved up to near those 112m/£15m maximums by next May.
Apparently aiming to move sp to above 17.3p :
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/LDG/commencement-of-share-buyback-programme/15905039