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Sold this just above 170 as I was expecting this drop after the results. I think the current price is already pricing in the worst case scenario. Bought half back just below 160p, let's see where it goes from here.
I'm referring to the material uncertainty comment rather than the net debt, which is as you say.
I'm also not trying to ignore a pretty poor set of results. AA needs to get his deal making boots on because Kistos needs to kick on. If that means moving out of the North Sea completely, or an even bigger transition into alternatives, then so be it. If value for shareholders can't be delivered through the intended route then find another one as he's done with the onshore storage.
The UK Government has played its part too. It's trashed our North Sea producers to appease a minority of moaners and as for their carping about Energy Security well we're going to have none, so forget it. In the end we'll pay more to import it from other countries that have lower environmental parameters in production so not only will we have supply risk, we'll be out of pocket and we'll be killing the planet quicker too. Well done UK Gov, great strategy, but hey, it got you some votes.... a shame keeping the lights on tomorrow is too far into the future to worry about.
You were last seen de ramaping this at 140p, this morning its 160p. Keep going as each tome you appear here the SP goes up.
As a management team fully aligned with shareholders, we remain focussed on seeking value for our investments which complement our existing portfolio and offer value-accretive upside."
Keep the faith
Remind me please? I am already 60 percent down on this dog
Wow.... Maybe time to cut our losses
Where on earth have you got 148m from?
Unfortunately they are correct:
"Net debt on 30 April 2024 of €148 million, following cash consideration paid for UK gas storage assets, ongoing Balder Future Project funding and UK tax payments made in Q1 2024."
Using worst case theoretical situations it has been modelled as so. You're either trying to mislead or.... oh, there isn't an or ;-)
Material uncertainty on the comlany operating as a going concern. Yikes!
What’s the next catalyst to the share price? I think we will get annual accounts at the end of May however I don’t believe they will read positively. Maybe another acquisition? What are your thoughts ?
Oil and gas firms are being framed as the “devil incarnate” as general election rhetoric ramps up, a top North Sea dealmaker has complained.
Andrew Austin said is firm Kistos Holdings (AIM: KIST) is one of several which has pulled out of deals due to political uncertainty and that the windfall tax is being seen as a “victimless” crime as the UK gears up for an election.
Speaking to The Herald, he said: “Part of the problem is both parties are rightly trying to chase the 18 to 24 year old vote and in their minds climate change and oil and gas companies are the devil incarnate, therefore taxing them is effectively a victimless crime; that’s what’s driving it on both sides of the house.”
Investment ‘off the table’
Mr Austin, who built up his former company RockRose Energy into a £250m business, said committing fresh capital to projects in the North Sea “is definitely off the table” until there’s certainty as to “the Government and the Government’s position”.
There have been four changes to the windfall tax since 2022 under the ruling Conservative government, while Labour, which is leading the polls, has promised a “proper windfall tax” should it win power.
Last month, the CEO of Hartshead Energy told Energy Voice the uncertainty on Labour’s plans have led to it cutting project team jobs.
Meanwhile the party’s pledge – which includes cutting investment allowances while hiking and extending the levy – has led to warnings it will kill off North Sea investment.
Kistos’ partner in the West of Shetland, TotalEnergies, told Energy Voice last year that the uncertainty is impacting potential Final Investment Decisions for their projects in the region.
Mr Austin told The Herald that the windfall tax is not making Shell or BP the victim.
“The victims are the small independents who effectively have become the mantle-holders for the North Sea as the majors and super-majors have exited.
“You’ve seen it with Harbour, with Ithaca with Serica and us. These are the guys that are getting hurt.”
The MM's are being a bit greedy with a 3.93% spread???!!!
Mav - net cash was not 247 million - this was discussed at the time. Think it was worked out that after norwegian tax refunds,we would be 40 net cash
Production came in at 7.4k barrels per day, down from 8.8k in January. The fall is due to production in the Netherlands falling off a cliff, why I have no idea.
Breakdown.
UK (GLA)
Net production from Edradour, Laggan and Tormore was 3442boepd of gas and 234b/d of oil.
Norway
Net production from Balder was 2734 b/d of oil.
Netherlands
Net production from Q10-A was 970 boepd.
aimo dyor
Full year results not to far away, is the market expecting a good set of financials? What are we expecting:
No debt
Increased cash position from Sept interims? Net cash was 247m
Is a dividend too early
Buying back shares has been positive for SQZ with only a £15m buy back - will AA do similar - KIST has way less shares in issue than SQZ
Gas price has been lower so revenues will be impacted?
Has AA being looking at anything beyond the North Sea & Norway
Not too long to find out
Var have announced a small discovery at Ringhorne North. It isn't a licence we have an interest in but just goes to show that there is still potential for more upside in the Balder area.
https://varenergi.no/news/new-oil-discovery-in-the-north-sea/
Ahhh okay see it now on the update section "Key high lights"
"Strong pipeline of development opportunities across
THREE stable JURISDICTIONS in mature basins - Peak production forecast to reach 15,000 boe/d in 2025
Thank you.
Rgds Sft
I don't consider it misleading, the enlarged group is pretty clear to me. All production guidance for each jurisdiction was in last September's presentation...
https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/kistos/2023/10/03092620/KIST_Interim-Results-2023-Presentation-final.pdf
dyor aimo etc etc
That's a very misleading and ambiguous RNS imo then; as I was taking the "Enlarged Group" as taking about the Norway assets????
Rgds Sft
Hey NQM,
The way I read the RNS comment: "Mime's share of production from Balder and Ringhorne is expected to be over 2,000 boe/d in 2023. This will increase significantly once the Balder X project is onstream, with production for the enlarged Group expected to be over 15,000 boe/d in 2025 once the Jotun FPSO is onstream"
Is 15,000 boe from Norway i.e. both Balder, Ringhorne AND Balder X (Jotun hooked up and on line)
The adding the NL and West of Shetland gas assets (not sure what the BOE is) correct?
Best rgds Sft
Apologies Surfit, damned auto correct changed your name to Surfing.
Surfing,
Your post said "Baring in mind Mime / Kistos has 10% of expected production estimated once started up 15,000 boe/d"
Do you realise that the figure of 15,000 boepd is not just for Norway but for the enlarged group, the UK, Netherlands AND Norway?
At this stage Balder and Ringhorne are forecast to be at around 10,000 boepd in 2025 and then declining in the following years to 8000 boepd by 2029.
aims dyor etc etc
Doesn’t make sense for a company with 0 US operations to be listed in the US.