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SHARE REPUTATIONS ARE ON THE LINE HERE.
Observer842
EyeGuy
News
Why?
I havent read the posts below except to take a glance but I do not wan to go any FURTHER into this conversation because it will NOT end given there is 2 vs me alone. There is NO open discussion and where the BOARD OF KDNC are now aware that these figures are being postulated. As I said, the Founder of REM [now called KDNC] posted a tweet recently from the Australian Financial Review [blue banner] from recall and the header said something like iron ore prices to hold for another year from recall. I was in a hurry and did not read it in detail or read the article. However, in Australia, many majors etc are into iron ore so Australia would cover this story more. However, I DID SIT UP. The Founder does NOT often POST such articles and therefore as he said, "you snooze, you lose."
EBITDA
I did CAVEAT my post with "SAY" so that means that it is NOT a detailed figure. If there are details, I would have to CHECK BENCH-MARKS of other listed iron ore co*s Londo-listed.
MARKET-MM*S-INVESTORS
As I said, KDNC in recent times fell to some 5p or a bit less on intra-day? I saw chatter on Twitter about it ie they thought the price was attractive as SENTIMENT had driven the share price to where it was? That is perception. So, the share price rose to 14p and some or many exited. I do not know who most are on Twitter as I check KDNC news and saw folks talking about it.
****KDNC £5 to £10 per share at full Amapa production @49%-header*****
This header has been NOT only posted here but on the main KDNC forum as well AT THE SAME TIME AS HERE. A little earlier, it was also posted by the same eminent poster who mentions another old time poster.
EyeGuy posted some figures on iron ore price. I posted that these may not hold for the next 17.5 years [shipping of potential stockpile, scoping study, recommissioning and 14 years of mine life]. I was unaware that EyeGuy would pop up or read this forum NO ONE READS. So, I merely said that "SAY" relating to EBITDA and out comes this eminent poster of the above title to take me on as well to LEND support to say I was wrong not to make EBITDA 3X instead of 2X if iron ore prices double. When iron ore prices are HIGH, it could be due to demand OR consequently at the same time, COSTS have risen due to Covid, shipping containers in tight supply, oil prices going up. To get a REAL-TIME PIC, one would have to follow and look at what a CEO of another iron ore listed co say [mid-tier or multi-billion co] FOR FORWARD GUIDANCE. Forward guidance is merely telling we think the iron ore prices will hold for the next financial year and therefore we believe that our revenues would be in line with our forecasts etc.
SO, THE FOUNDER OF REM HIMSELF HAS TWEETED THIS ARTICLE AND THEREFORE, I TAKE NOT.
---NO FINAL SETTLEMENT BETWEEN THE CREDITOR BANKS YET, SO NO AMAPA 20% KDNC****
No final settlement SIGNED = NO SHIPPING can be done. NO S
Indeed @EyeGuy. I've got a DCV NPV calculation, which is fairly similar to @tradecrafts's, but also takes into account debt repayments. In fact I shared part of it a while back on the other board. The EBITDA EV approach is much simpler to share and for others to understand, so I've been using that of late to highlight the prospects of the project! I suspect the scoping study is going to shock some as it is likely to use circa 62% Fe $110/t as the base, which would correspond with say 65% Fe $130/t per below:
"Updated Mineral Resource Estimate for the Amapa Iron Ore Project" (02 November 2020)
http://irservices.netbuilder.com/ir/cadence/newsArticle.php?ST=REM&id=311428202001057764
===[
The Mineral Resource Statement generated by BGS has been restricted to the Indicated and Inferred Friable Haematite, Friable Itabirite and Friable Altered Itabirite material falling within an optimised pit shell and using a metal price of 130 USD/tonne for a 65% Fe concentrate
]===
IMHO the market is either: blind, heavily discounting we'll complete the deal, think the deal will be bad for us, or just afraid of a high share price. LoL to the latter! ;-)
Ob.
Obs- the figures posted match mine pretty much.
No idea how anyone can reject those figures. Surely if the margin on iron ore sold changes from 100% to 500% (as is what happens when iron ore spot goes from 61-200 dollars) based on under $30 cost then the profitability including profits and NPV will moon.
People rejecting the figures is more like turning a blind eye to suit their own trading agenda.
News. It’s not really a “fair test” to put forward and bullish theory to the other bulletin board.
A lot on there are spread betting and desperate for the shares to be kept low imo.
I recognise the name Maddog from there. He is another one who imo is utterly terrified of a rising share price- similar to his posts on Val over the past 12 months
LoL @news. I suggest you look at the number of recs for the post containing @tradecraft's spreadsheet based on the scenario in question on 22 Jan '21. It stands at 25 at the moment:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1EGN1PjTDBPvsdo3CkA9ZZRaSmENcVy6a/view
Doesn't get much higher than that for KDNC! ;-)
@news "I am pleased to report that the" spreadsheet/s" that did the £5-£10 share price for KDNC Amapa iron ore project when [if] in full production at 49% share [if, given KDNC own 0% in Amapa currently and no shipping announced yet] have been UNIVERSALLY REJECTED by the main KDNC forum."
to quote EyeGuy "The above statement you made is false". Please don't take this post to heart! It's meant in jest! :-)
Atb.
News:
“
It has been pointed out, as I pointed out in this forum that THE FINAL AGREEMENT has NOT BEEN EVEN SIGNED YET FOR KDNC Amapa project - bank creditors have not signed the final documents to release shipping of the iron ore stockpiles at Amapa.”
You are getting confused here. The bank creditors have nothing to do with the shipments. It isn’t related. The shipments will start with monies going to Dev. The above statement you made is false
Atb
Ladies & Gentlemen,
I am pleased to report that the" spreadsheet/s" that did the £5-£10 share price for KDNC Amapa iron ore project when [if] in full production at 49% share [if, given KDNC own 0% in Amapa currently and no shipping announced yet] have been UNIVERSALLY REJECTED by the main KDNC forum.
The above has been REPEATED also on the main forum and NO ONE will support and CONFIRM that they are in agreement.
It has been pointed out, as I pointed out in this forum that THE FINAL AGREEMENT has NOT BEEN EVEN SIGNED YET FOR KDNC Amapa project - bank creditors have not signed the final documents to release shipping of the iron ore stockpiles at Amapa.
So, everything including TIMELINE are irrelevent at this time given NO LEGAL FINAL AGREEMENT SIGNED by the Brazilian bank debtors yet, Fri, 5 Mar 2021.
EVERYONE IS THEREFORE IN THE SAME BOAT AS I AM - IE REMAINING IN THE GROUNDED BOAT given the share price of KDNC closed a 17.5p/20p per the quote above this page, Mkt cap around £28m+.
-----------------ALL RESOLVED ----NO ONE HAS AGREED WITH ALL THESE SPREADSHEET CALS OF £5 OR £10 SHARE PRICE FOR KDNC NOR HAS THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS INDICATED SUCH-------
Fri, 5 Mar 2021. DYOR.
No observer842
In sophisticated language there is no need to say someone is creditable.
Nor is there a need to use challenge.
It is civil-no words used that are banned or polite society should not use.
If you need to ask, then just say, may I ask? Not, challenge.
Use that word challenge in any workplace-see what happens.
I have come to the conclusion that we are NOT in the same boat.
Why? I am not looking for £10 from KDNC. I am looking to keep myself removed from the GME type of big no*s - didnt people say on the main KDNC board that when they heard big no*s at the party they just bought? Well, I AM NOT GETTING ON THAT TYPE OF BOAT.
I am at the grounded boat.
Right now Observer 842 and EyeGuy, the share price of KDNC is 19 pence, mkt cap £28m or thereabouts
From 19p to £10 is a long way, 50X.
An observer said to stay grounded after reading the to and fro on this forum.
IF BOTH OF YOU ARE SO SURE YOU ARE RIGHT OVER £10 ETC, YOU WILL TAKE IT TO KIRAN MOZARIA, CEO OF KDNC, CHAIRMAN OF KDNC SUCKLING,
ACCOUNTANTS OF KDNC TO RUN IT PAST THEM AS THEY ARE QUALIFIED WITH EXPERIENCE & LICENCED.
BROKERS LIKE WH IRELAND WHO DO FORECAST AS A JOB.
----------------RUN IT PAST THEM--------------------
I LET YOU HAVE YOUR SAY, I HAVE HAD MINE. END THE CONVO AND PEACE OUT.
IT IS OW 12:10AM AND I HAVE NOT YET GOT MY TEA YET AND I HAVE TO TURN IN NOW.
I SEE AN ANSWER SO IT MEANS THAT THERE IS MORE REPLIES TO CARRY ON THE CONVO.
---------TAKE IT TO THE BOARD OF KDNC------------------------
Fri, 5 Mar 2021.
@news. You are seriously misunderstanding me. I am saying that you ARE a credible person. The use of the word challenge in this context means "to question". Please keep it civil. And stay calm. We are in this boat together :-)))
you will be PROVEN RIGHT OR WRONG AND ONLY TIME WILL TELL.
Re: your cals that KDNC will have a share price of £5-£10 when KDNC Amapal is in full production at 49% share.
This is now 5 Mar 2021 and the Court case in Brazil has taken AGES AND AGES.
ALL THE RNS HAVE BEEN NOW SUPERCEDED GIVEN THE COURT CASE HAS NOT ALLOWED ORIGINAL TIMELINE TO BE FULFILED.
NOTHING HAS BEEN RNS YET ABOUT AMAPA FINAL AGREEMENT SIGNED BY THE CREDITOR BANKS , THEREFORE THERE CAN BE NO RIGHT OR WRONG CURRENTLY AS THE TIMELINE MAY NEED TO CHANGE FURTHER?
So, what is the need to challenge me or creditability on the line over timelines that have changed so much that few can even keep up?
Why Observer842?
OBSERVER842
SEE- IT IS NOW COSE TO MID-NIGHT @11:40pm and you take this topic on and on.
You do not NEED TO CHALLENGE as its a strong word-there is NOTHING TO CHALLENGE ME.
Out of courtesy, there is NO NEED TO CHALLENGE anyone for your creditabilty or mine.
THERE IS NOTHING CRITICAL ABOUT THIS, you provide a link to a 2019 RNS? It is now 2021!!
The shipping was initially for 12 months, now 18 months.
I have no time to listen and trawl through all the videos that I heard. My notes are mixed up with KDNC and another co, hence why I have to try to locate it again.
Why are you PICKING ON EVERY LITTLE DETAIL?
Why? THE RNS WILL COME OUT-AMAPA FINAL AGREEMENT SIGNED BY CREDITOR BANK [IF THIS HAPPENS IN A STRAIGHT FORWARD WAY] and then THE NEW DETAILS OR FINAL DETAILS ABOUT TIMELINE FOR SHIPPING WILL HAVE TO BE RELEASED AGAIN PLUS ALL THE OTHER DETAILS.
So, there is no need to pick through old RNS*s of 2019 when there have been so many changes.
Why Observer842 - you are NOT LIKE THIS WITH OTHER PEOPLE on the main forum so why here?
Why are you PICKING ON EVERY SINGLE THING AND SAYING ITS HAS TO BE CHALLENGED?
AND THEN ABOUT CREDITABILITY? THERE IS NO CREDITABILITY ISSUE.
IF WE WANT WE TAKE IT TO THE MAIN KDNC FORUM - I WILL HAVE TO DO AN AUDIT TRAIL TO GET ACTUAL INTERVIEWS TO PROVE.
BUT FOR WHAT? TIMELINE HAVE CHANGED SO MANY TIMES? EVERYONE SAID SO AND NO ONE CAN KEEP UP GIVEN AMAPA IS NOT MY SPECIALISM?
WHY OBSERVER842 ARE YOU TURNING THIS FORUM INTO SOME FORUMS WHERE THE CONVO ENDS WITH 1 OR 2 OPTIONS.
I DONT WANT TO GET TO THAT POINT SO I WANT TO STOP AND P E A C E OUT.
You are talking OF CHALLENGING ME for what has been so many changes? As you know SHIPPING WAS SUPPOSED TO BE AGES AGO.
Why should CREDITABILITY COME INTO THIS? Even on the main KDNC board, no one can KEEP UP WITH ALL THE DATES.
WHY IS CREDITABILITY BEING CALLED INTO QUESTION OVER JUST A SIMPLE TIMELINE WHEN NOTHING HAS EVEN BEEN SIGNED OFF YET AND THEREFORE NOTHING CAN TAKE PLACE IE SHIPPING START RIGHT NOW and therefore it is X months or Y months?
NOTHING CRITICAL IN ANY OF THIS?
IF ON THE MAIN FORUM OF KDNC SOMEONE HAS RECALLED WRONGLY, PEOPLE ARE KIND TO JUST LET OTHERS KNOW BUT NO ONE SAYS THAT THE PERSON*S CREDITABILITY HAS TO BE CALLED INTO QUESTION OR NEED TO BE CHALLENGED JUST FOR A MISTAKEN DATE WHICH IS NEVER CRITICAL?
I have obviously got on your wrong books once I said that £10 was too much at this stage to extrapolate into such a long time to come when SHIPPING AND THE AGREEMENT HAS NOT BEEN EVEN SIGNED YET - HENCE NO MONIES HAS EVEN STARTED TO COME IN AS INCOME FOR KDNC except $10m profit allowed for Dev, the JV.
On other sites eg EMH OR BCN which are investee co*s of KDNC you do NOT TAKE ANYONE TO TASK BY SAYING YOU NEED TO CHALLENGE THEM OR THEIR CREDITABILITY IS IN QUESTION FOR JUST A SIMPLE DATE WHICH IS NOT CRITICAL?
I END THIS CONVO.
IF YOU BELIEVE YOUR FIGURES OF £10 FOR KDNC, you wil
OBSERVER842 & EYEGUY
I am looking at something else and I just clicked to see if there is more progress via links.
I then chanced that both of you are still at this conversation which ended days ago.
I did not reply but both of you started the convo again on the SAME SUBJECT MATTER AGAIN.
Why have you become like this, OBSERVER842? You were not like this before on the main forum. If this was conducted on the main forum and did NOT STOP, I am sure you know what could happen next?
Hence, why it should stop - everyone has had a say. Even an outsider said "STAY GROUNDED" but no, you insists you are right to say £10 when today, KDNC cant get over 19p?
Once you posted to me some time ago and you said "HEY NEWS." I was uncomfortable with that but I never said anything. It showed a lack of respect to call someone "HEY." Its just like calling out to the waiter HEY and they dont like ie either. No one like to be addressed like that.
I knew then to be careful.
I was right, that impression has led to nit-picking. You have a right and I have a right.
You can say what you think and calculated and leave it at that. So, staying grounded is something I want. NOTHING WRONG WITH THAT?
On the main forum on KDNC, YOU DO NOT GO ON WITH EVERY ONE SO WHY HERE WITH ME WHEN I AM ALONE BY MYSELF AND NO ONE TO HELP ME OUT?
WHY OBSERVER842 AND EYEGUY.
Eyeguy is from Twitter normally but at 11:40pm at night both of you are PEELED ON THIS SITE OR ELSE YOU CANT ANSWER.
We are wasting our time as we need to get on with other things?
So, LETS ASK WHY? WHY NO TO AND FRO ON THE MAIN KDNC FORUM?
WHY HERE, ONLY WITH ME ALONE AND TWO OF YOU?
FACT-IF YOU INSIST TAKE IT TO THE KDNC FORUM AND LET*S DISCUSS IT THERE- I CAN FORESEE PEOPLE WILL GET SO FED-UP, ADMIN WILL HAVE TO INTERVENE.
I SAID PEACE OUT AND ENDED WITH MY RIGHT OF REPLY AND OUT COMES MORE CONVO.
NOTHING IS IN STONE YET-IT NEEDS TO COME OUT VIA A KDNC RNS IE THE FINAL DATES -RIGHT NOW NOTHING IS FIXED 100% AS THERE IS NO FINALISATION AGREEMENT YET, SO ALL THIS IS MERELY NIT-PICKING.
@news. I am going on estimated timelines that have been officially RNS'd. You are a credible person in my view. If a credible person says something which I don't think is correct, I challenge it, both for their benefit and mine - as it could be me that is incorrect. The RNS is as below:
"Heads of Terms to Acquire Interest in former Anglo American Iron Ore Mine, Amapá, NE Brazil" (21 May 2019)
http://irservices.netbuilder.com/ir/cadence/newsArticle.php?ST=REM&id=2790390
===[
Cadence's investment will provide the initial working capital and will be utilised to complete a detailed recommissioning study and pay some of the historic creditors. The recommissioning study will provide definitive operating and capital expenditure numbers and a timeline for recommissioning. The remainder of the required capital expenditure and working capital is expected to be raised predominantly from project debt. Full recommissioning is estimated to take 12-18 months with mining production targeted to start in 2021.
]===
By my estimate we are coming up to 15 months behind schedule, so mining production is now likely to be targeted in 2023, but could be end of 2022 if the deal is signed in the next few months and shipments start shortly afterwards.
I said I hear it from the interviews. No one reads this forum.
There is no need to insist that it is from the presentation. What I hear may be not correct but that is what I heard. I have my notes and have to try to look and see if I can find it.
I think it is nit-picking. Try going thru the recent interviews again.
I think it is getting tedious now as both of you are insisting on something that does NOT need constant correcting. Everything is being corrected.
Try checking the recent interviews. It is of such critical importance at this point when the FINAL AGREEMENT IS NOT EVEN SIGNED OFF YET FOR AMAPA?
IT WILL HAVE TO COME OUT IN AN KDNC RNS RELATING TO HOW MANY MONTHS SHIPPING, SCOPING STUDY AND RE-COMMISSIONING?
I think all this is IRRELEVANT AT THE MOMENT-people on the main KDNC FORUM SAID SO.
Not sure why OBSERVER842 YOU ARE GOING ON AND ON AND ON?
Why?
both take your figures TO :
KIRAN MOZARIA, CEO
CHAIRMAN, SUCKLING to make sure that the board knows.
then to the ACCOUNTANTS, NOMAD AND AIM ADVISOR.
then to the BROKER/S WH IRELAND AND HANNAN & PARTNERS, INVESTMENT BANKERS WHO HAVE A SPECIALIST METALS SECTION and run those figures with both firms who HOLD FCA LICENCE TO PRODUCE FOREWARD FORECASTS OF SHARE PRICE.
LET ME PROVE TO YOU THAT NO BROKER HAS EVER PRODUCED AN OFFICIAL BROKER NOTE TO SAY THE SHARE PRICE WILL INCREASE 50 X TIMES FROM TODAY*S KDNC*s price of 19p, Mkt cap £28million to £1.4 BILLION @ £10!!!! NONE - NO ONE WILL EVER BE ABLE TO SHOW ME SUCH A NOTE - these are from the people who are ACTUALLY QUALIFIED AND LICENCED BY THE FCA TO BE ABLE TO DO SO.
I rest my case. I will NOT ANSWER anymore as its wasting everyone*s time and it is getting nowhere.
IF YOU ARE CONFIDENT, GO TO THE RIGHT PEOPLE.
I have approached the NOMAD before as someone said that £8m was an overvaluation for a co and who said he was a fund manager. I contacted the advisor both in the UK and Australia and I was told to get in touch with the FCA. Obviously, the advisor for AIM believed when it comes to a valuation and such like, this chap did not have a FCA LICENCE AND THEREFORE he has no right to tell people it is a over-valuation? In Australia, if one is a professional one has to get special clearance from Hotcopper and they then give a designation BEFORE THE PERSON CAN POST. In the USA, they get badges like Twitter and they state who they are and what exper or qual. This is like some cowboy space where everyone just produces BIG TELEPHONE NO*S AND RAMS IT DOWN MY THROAT WHEN I JUST MENTIONED 2X EBITDA say...
Apparently, it is to close my word of caution down and therefore why IT IS REPEAT ON THE KDNC BOARD TONIGHT ABOUT £10 FOR KDNC PRICE FORCAST BY OBSERVER 842.
This is all NOT DONE. WHY THE INSISTENCE?
TAKE IT TO KDNC AND GET PAST THE BOARD IE CEO AND CHAIRMAN.
By the way, I decided not to contact the FCA but became aware that TOPICS OF VALUATION, SHARE PRICE FORECASTS SHOULD BE TREATED WITH CAUTION when no one knows who posters are in real life and therefore what makes them in a position to do these FORECASTS THAT ARE ONLY GIVEN TO FCA LICENCE HOLDERS WHO ARE QUALIFIED AND EXPERIENCED IN REAL LIFE WORKING AS ANALYSTS ETC?
Not sure but all seems a bit unusual to say the least? NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE IT.
News, 4 Mar 2021.
Obviously, one poster said to "REMAIN GROUNDED" after the convo going to and fro. I think an outside observer can see TO REMAIN GROUNDED ie from 19p today to £10 shortly when production begins at £1.4 billion mkt cap when it cant even get over 19 p currently when the AGREEMENT FOR AMAPA IS NOT EVEN SIGNED YET AND NOTHING IS 100% CERTAIN and there may have to be more steps ie legal procedures to take.
TAKE IT TO THE CO, ADVISORS, ACCOUNTANTS AND BROKERS-THAT IS THE RIGHT WAY IF BOTH OF YOU ARE INSISTENT EVERYONE MUST NOT REMAIN GROUNDED?
@news: Take a look at page 10:
https://www.cadenceminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Corporate-Presentation-KDNC-JAN-2021-PUBLIC-1.pdf
Recommissioning starts within 6 months of the agreement with the banks, and aims to be finished within 2 years, with new ore potentially from 19 months from agreement with the banks. This coincides with what is in the JRP where new ore is mined and shipped in year 3 (24 months from start of shipping ore at the private port), with a further ramp up in year 4, and full production by year 5.
So EyeGuy is correct to question: "All this is irrelevant UNTIL shipping starts, scoping study done and re-commisioning done which will take another 3.5 years at least. Then, comes ramp up to full production”,
as the ramp up to full production potentially starts from 19-24 months from sign off with the banks.
No one is looking for a quarrel. Keep it civil please.
Ob.
Not enough space.
Contd
from that legal site, it said they wanted the Court to allow them to appeal to the Supreme Court and the next last avenue like in Britain is to the Secretary of State but in Brazil it is to the Minister in charge.
ISNT THIS JUMPING BEFORE IT IS EVEN OFFICIAL THAT IT IS TIED UP LEGALLY?
I think Kiran Mozaria is taking the right step to do things in a more assured step and in accordance to the rule of law. Once they start shipping they will know more as they are on the ground and the JV owns Amapa provided they get the FINAL AGREEMENT SIGNED OFF.
NO, I SINCERELY DO NOT KNOW WHY OBSERVER842 AND EYEGUY YOU ARE GOING ON AND ON.
ITS A SIMPLE MATTER- I MERELY POSTED WITHOUT ANY REFERENCE TO THE £10 AND WAS DISCUSSING IT WITH EYE-GUY. If EyeGuy is the one who posted non-stop the Communist, a minority party is going to take away EMH*s Cinovec and would not be moved despite different people showing him that their politicians have discussed the matter and they are aware that compensation and international litigation would cost MILLIONS as did ONE CAST THEY LOST IN THE PAST.
So, if EyeGuy is the same guy as I do not exactly recall the exact name, then it will not stop.
And therefore BEST TO END THE CONVO as there is NO POINT.
WHY ARE THE TWO OF US INSISTING. I merely posted a simple doubt EBITDA for an example and OUT COMES THIS WHOLE PAGES AND PAGES OF DISCUSSSION.
I never said OBSERVER842 PLEASE CORRECT MY POSTS at all here. YOU WOULD NOT ANSWER WHEN I ASKED A QUESTION AT BCN AND EVEN OVER HERE, SO I TOOK IT YOU WERE JUST IGNORING ME OR WHATEVER? THEN, ALL OF A SUDDEN YOU COME ON SAYING I SAID to correct.
You NOT ONLY CORRECT, YOU ARE PICKING ON EVERY SINGLE LITTLE WORD OR LETTER SORT OF THING. WHAT IS THE REASON FOR ALL THIS???
SEEMS TO ME FROM THE POSTS, THE TWO OF US ARE GOING ON TWITTER IE EYE-GUY WITH THE FIGURES AND OBSERVER842 ON A SITE NO ONE READS OR VISITS AND THEN ITS NOT ENOUGH BUT TO GO ON TO KDNC MAIN FORUM TO REPEAT IT AGAIN WHEN RECENTLY YOU HAD ALREADY TAKEN THE TOPIC TO THE FORUM.
SOMEHOW, YOU ARE SORT OF SHUTTING DOWN ALL CONVERSATION ABOUT THIS AND JUST REPEAT AND SAYING NO ONE KNOWS ONLY YOURSELF?
My word, IN MY WHOLE TIME ON THE LONDON SOUTH EAST, I HAVE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THAT.
Even Gilby Report said £5 in the old REM time and even then no one KNOWS WHO THIS GILBY IS. It certainly isnt a PROPER REPORT as it was posted on ADVFN = an poster of whom no one knows who it is. That was one of the complaints when folks lost their savings.
APPARENTLY, THE TWO OF YOU DO NOT SEEM VERY BOTHERED ABOUT THE REM PEOPLE WHO LOST MONEY OTHERWISE YOU WOULD HAVE TO BE MORE RESPONSIBLE THIS TIME ROUND. ONCE IS GOOD ENOUGH - I believe the MATTER WENT TO THE FCA as I read that people complained.
People have been complaining and PEOPLE HAVE HAD A KNOCK ON THE DOOR SORT OF THING, SO ONE DOES NOT WANT ANOTHER REPEAT.
IF BOTH OF YOU ARE SO CONFIDENT YOU ARE RIGHT, YOU CAN T
From the data given,it is 18 months for shipping.
Then, another 18-24 mths to do the scoping study and recommissioning.
This is from the recent interviews and Alan Green?
Isnt 18 mths, 1 year & 6 months given that there is 12 mths in 1 year?
Isnt 24 months = 2 years given 12 mths is 1 year and therefore 24 mths = 2 years?
So, isnt 1 year 6 mths + 2 years= 3 and a half years?
What is so difficult about that?
I get TWO COMING AT ME WHEN I ENDED THE CONVO.
You gave your answer and I gave mine.
---------
EyeGuy and I ended with peace out and now again, its another to and fro. Why? TWO BLOKES COMING AT ME AT THE SAME TIME AND NO ONE HERE TO ADD TO THE CONVO TO PROVIDE A FAIR DISCUSSION? Surely, it nees 2 vs 2? Not 2 vs 1?
---------
I just had a LOOK at the KDNC FORUM AND YOU HAVE TAKEN YOUR £5-£10 THERE AGAIN after you had already posted about it.
Then, you say, observer842 that over the road, which is this KDNC.PL FORUM THAT
YOU POSTED ETC.
WHY? WHY OBS? WHY THIS INSISTENCE? NO ONE READS THIS FORUM SO WHY GO OVER TO THE MAIN KDNC FORUM TO SAY YOU POSTED ON THE OTHER SIDE?
WHY ARE YOU SO INSISTENT YOU ARE RIGHT? YOU ARE SAYING KDNC WITH A MKT CAP OF SOME £28M @19P IS GOING TO £10 WHICH IS £1.4 BILLION MKT CAP!!!
DID WH IRELAND DO THIS CALS AND PUT OUT A BROKER NOTE THAT KDNC IS GOING TO £10?
WILL HANNAN & PARTNERS, LONDON TIER 1 INVESTMENT BANK ALSO PUT OUT A BROKER NOTE TO SAY £10 FOR KDNC WHEN IN FULL PRODUCTION WITH 49% SHARE IN AMAPA?
Where is ALL THIS MONEY COMING FROM? RIGHT NOW, KDNC IS TRYING TO KEEP THE LIGHTS ON LIKE IN THE PAST FEW YEARS. WHERE IS ALL THIS MONEY COMING FROM TO BUY 49% AS IF MONEY IS OF NO OBJECT.
How does the CASH FLOW ALLOW ALL THIS, PAY FOR AIM LISTING, EXPENSES, OFFICE, OVERHEAD, SALARIES PLUS PAY INCREASING SHARE TO 49% OF AMAPA?
ANSWER WILL BE TO SELL MORE OF EMH ? Surely KDNC SHOULD TRY TO HAND ON AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE TO EMH FOR AS LONG AS POSSIBLE AS KIRAN MOZARIA SAID THAT IT IS GOING TO INCREASE AS IT NEARS PRODUCTION OR AKIN TO THAT GENEERAL THEORY?
How OBS?
In an ordinary co, yes, its EBITDA but when it comes to Amapa, it needs to be POST TAX so that what comes into KDNC is net tax from Amapa.
HAVE YOU TWO RUN ANY FIGURES WITH KIRAN MOZARIA OR THE ACCOUNTANTS WHO PREPARE THE ACCOUNTS TO SEE IF THEY AGREE YOUR FIGURES?
You are just taking this on and on without any END to prove it HAS TO BE RIGHT.
You are NOT LISTENING TO ANY GROUNDED ADVICE TO SEEK TO RUN THESE FIGURES WITH EITHER KIRAN MOZARIA OR THE ACCOUNTANTS AT KDNC WHO PREPARE THE AUDITED ACCOUNTS - MY WORD, IF THE BROKERS, WH IRELAND AND HANNAN COULD SEE YOUR FIGURES, I AM SURE THEY ARE GOING TO BE IN SHOCK??
TRY THAT, BOTH OBS AND EYE-GUY, NO NEED TO TRY TO GET IT PAST ME AS I AM NOT INCREASING MY INVESTMENT IN KDNC NOR TAKING OUT SAVINGS TO GET INTO A GME MANIA OF £10 OR EVEN £5 AT THIS STAGE WHEN THE AMAPA AGREEMENT HAS NOT EVEN GOT SIGNED OFF BY THE BANK CREDITORS YET?
As you
My apologies @EyeGuy
Ob - yep I know that but news said
“ All this is irrelevant UNTIL shipping starts, scoping study done and re-commisioning done which will take another 3.5 years at least. Then, comes ramp up to full production”
There's a couple of years ramp up to full production @EyeGuy
News- the presentation time line for commissioning is 19-24 months from January 2021. You have doubled the timelines to what has been reported. Why?
@news. Are you going out of your way to make it hard to have a discussion? LoL. Please write fewer things and provide links to what you are talking about. All I can say is that different companies are valued differently based on all sorts of factors. The EV's to EBITDA can be quite wide ranging for apparently no reason! :-)
Based on today's iron ore prices of $177.00/t Fe 62% and $200/t Fe 65% the estimated EBITDA of the project given what we know and my understanding at full production would be approximately:
$136m + (($177/t - $61/t) * $0.9Mt) + (($200/t - $80/t) * 4.4Mt) = $136m + $104.4m + $528m = $768m
If we owned 49% of Amapa that would be $384m = £275m per year
On an EV to EBITDA multiple of 2.7 this would equate to £5 a share ( £275 * 2.7 / 148,349,098), 5.4 would be £10 a share.
and 11 would be a little over £20 a share. Is 2.7 reasonable? Of course it is. 5.4? Probably. 11? Well, see below:
"Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Jumps 3x In 6 Months; What’s Changed?" (JAN 8, 2021)
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cleveland-cliffs-stock-jumps-3x-in-6-months-whats-changed-2021-01-08
===[
Though earnings dropped, CLF’s P/E multiple increased from 6x in 2017 to 8x in 2019 mainly due to higher revenues, the company’s expansion plans, and rising iron ore prices. The multiple dropped in early 2020 to 4x following the outbreak of coronavirus. It has since then increased sharply and currently stands at 15x, as iron ore and steel prices have rebounded post the stimulus announcements. We believe that the company’s P/E multiple will decline to a more realistic level of about 9x in the near term.
]===
We sign this deal off in this economic environment and AIM might not know what hit it. LoL.
Ob.
Best we end this convo here-you have had your say and I have had mine.
Very democractic and peace out.
All this is irrelevant UNTIL shipping starts, scoping study done and re-commisioning done which will take another 3.5 years at least. Then, comes ramp up to full production etc. ONLY THEN, WILL A GLIMMER OF THE ACTUAL ACCOUNTING COME OUT IN ACTUAL BRING HOME THE BACON IE IN REAL INCOME & REAL MONEY INTO THE COFFERS OF KDNC BEFORE ONE CAN SAY SP IS X OR Y.?
Thur, 4 Mar 2021