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@News [& Obs] You are right to state that it is logical to have a Lithium Battery Plant close to Sonora.
I am not, or even close, to being a scientist but my research tells me that Lithium [Li] is an Alkali metal.
Pure Lithium has a strong reaction with water and is generally highly reactive and flammable. The Sonora
deposits are not hard rock and pure lithium should be stored for safety in mineral oil.
This could present a transport problem imv, so much better to site a battery factory close to material supply.
Ganfeng has proven expertise in dealing with Lithium so I am optimistic for early announcement of
increase in production forecast to date, involving our jv area.
Ref: "10 BIGGEST LITHIUM PROJECTS" - Mining Tech.
No 1 is SONORA. Mexico. - lithium will last 200 or 250 years depending on which article on reads. [ 2 43. 8 Mt ]
No 2 is Thacker Pass, USA. - lithium will last for 46 years. [ 1 79 .4 Mt]
No 3 is Wodgina, Australia [151 Mt], No 4 Pilgangoora , Australia [108 Mt],
No 5 Earl Grey, Australia [94.5Mt], No 6 Greenbushes, Australia [ 86.4 Mt]
No 7 WHATBOUCHI , CANADA [ 36.6Mt]. No 8 Altura*s Pilgangoora [34.2Mt]
No 9 Goulamina, Mali 31.2Mt and No 10 Arcadia, Zimbabwe 26.9 Mt.
One can see clearly that MEXICO [1], CANADA [1] AND USA [1]. The rest are Australian in the main.
---------
SONORA - VENTANA [100% owned by BCN]
A/c to miningdata online, the Stage 1 mining will be at Ventana [885] and the lithium will LAST FOR 19 YEARS. Kiran Mozaria said in his latest interview that KDNC - start from YEAR 8? He did NOT elaborate how. 19 years is pretty normal for a mine life although majors prefer a bit longer life span.
-----SO, SONORA AT 200 OR 250 YEARS IS A WHOPPER OF A DEPOSIT---------
How? No 2, Thacker Pass will only last 46 years?
So, 200 M I N U S 19 = 181 years for nearly what BCN does not own OUTRIGHT 100% [just rough figures which is not accurate to the last decimal].
Even 250 minus 19 years = 231 years for what BCN DOES NOT OWN 100%.
SONORA PART 2 LICENCE AREA IS A JV WITH KDNC OWNING 30% - EL SAUZ, EL SAUZ 1 & FLEUR.
From BCN*s NI43-101, it appears that BCN has drilled EL SAUZ?
Degsie was told by Kiran Mozaria recently that on the books [KDNC a/cs], the value placed on the SONORA JV is some $103m from recall and this included the % stake in BCN at the time. There is NO PURE FIGURE seperation so one cant tell how much is the SONORA JV VALUED AT ON ITS OWN from the $103m. It is well known that VALUATIONS ARE TAKEN and this valuation is VERY OLD and whether there has been a new valuation I am not sure.
KIRAN MOZARIA MENTIONED IN ONE OF THE LAST FEW RECENT INTERVIEWS: "WE HAVE AMBITIOUS PLANS FOR SONORA."
WHAT ARE THEY, MR MOZARIA?
A/c to David Lenigas, he told us REM*ers that he did the legals in such a way that REM CAN SELL THEIR 30% JV WITHOUT REFERRING TO BCN. Also, Mr Isdeer wanted DL to buy the further 19% JV to take it up to 49%- DL SAID THEY CANT AFFORD THE PRICE!!!!!
Well, it is MIND-BLOWING. DL goes to Mexico, takes a couple of pics for us to see and says its a world class mine and its going to contribute X% to global lithium and is worth $50bn? He told Daily Mail Midas that also and I have cited this article before as it was a buy recommendation from the Mail Online then. Just like that. Hardly drilled and he can just say that. Man must be able to smell big money.
TURNS OUT AFTER ALL THAT DRILLING, PFS, BFS ETC ITS TRUE THAT IT IS T H E NO 1 and acknolwedged so.
Cant blame DL that he said 5p at a party as that is only about £180m+++ when REM was £95m at 2.25p intra-day highest for all time.
EMH is £175m even no
Though it did just occur to me to check the number of recs=9. LoL. Maybe the logic and maths is OK after all! ;-)
@Ivybush Great to hear from you. Per your last post some time ago, you were right to evaluate it in that way given you were in that type of profession anyway. People ring around and they obtain actual commercial insight.
LITHIUM
Today, I watched the video interview with Lon Sth East wherein Thacker Pass royalty was bought for £28m [deal was in US$39m] given this is a Nevada project = biggest lithium project in the USA. I just could find details of how much royalty they got ie % for £28m. As a comparitive, Gan bought nearly the last 25% or so for some US$25m approx [around this area]. So, 50% odd costed some US$50m for Sonora. Stunning?
Several big events happening. Ford has moved from Ohio to MEXICO for its new model [4 days ago]. From the past, I gather than NEAR Sonora , there are car manufacturers. However, missing is car battery production from what I gather from other news reports.
In the US, as I stated the SEC has called 30 firms including Tesla etc & Livent to a closed door meeting to help them MOVE TO CANADA by order from the US govt. Meeting behind closed doors and NO MEDIA info or details put out. Canada a/c to the report said that they consider Canada to be the 51st state!? This is because activists, enviro^mist all oppose big mining in the USA. Even Rio*s Resolution mine [big copper project] is facing difficulty. Needless to say, Pebble has NOT been granted a mining permit in Alaska. From this report, I learnt that LITHIUM CANNOT OR SHOULD NOT BE TRANSPORTED over long mileage. Oh my. My logic tells me the reason why which is obvious.
So, regarding SONORA - is it not logical to have a LITHIUM BATTERY PLANT in the area so that the car manufacturers can use the lithium from SONORA? This was the discussion in the days of REM.
Then, yesterday news of a takeover which means that the TRAIN CO MERGE FROM USA , CANADA TO MEXICO [$29 billion merger - freight]. Oh my when one puts two + two as to what FREIGHT is going from these 3 places? I am not sure if one can put lithium in freight trains and its safe? If it can, then Sonora lithium can go to Canada or even the USA? We hear that another co was going to mine lithium in Sonora but I never kept up on that.
Back to what I wanted to discuss with you re: SONORA.
I should point out that the values in the second part of the post are different to the first part as I refined the method used to estimate them. I feel this is a better approach, and if correct I believe the market is completely underestimating our potential value. Any one want to challenge this approach? Any fundamental flaws with the logic or the maths!?
I didn't really get any push back or support on my estimates if the Sonora project were to expand - which they are planning.
Ob@07 Mar 2021 10:16
===[
I wonder if it is fair to approximate the net present value of the 21.7kt LCE associated with KDNC in the current mining plan by multiplying it by a cash flow per kt of LCE and discounting by some factor. If I recall correctly we (the BoD) have previously valued our portion of the project (according to the current mining schedule) at $30m, so how does $3,000/t and 50% discount sound?
21.7kt * $3,000/t * 50% = $32.5m
In which case my (apparently conservative! ;-)) scenario of, ~10% KDNC, 45% BCN, 45% Ganfeng, where total mined in the 19 years increases from 603kt to 890kt increases our NPV to:
890kt * 10% * $3,000/t * 50% = $133.5m
Another way of looking at this is that although the expansion plans are good for BCN shareholders they are potentially 4 ($133.5m / $32.5m) times as good for KDNC holders over the current plans :-))))
But is it a fair way of looking at things? And if so what about even higher mining rates and life of mine?
]===
Ob@07 Mar 2021 17:30
===[
Here are the workings for the more ambitious schedules - still only for 19 years, which is obviously conservative given the size of the resource, but makes comparison and discounting easier.
1. 603kt LCE (17.5ktpa 4 years, 35ktpa 15 years)
2. 890kt LCE (20ktpa 2 years, 50ktpa 17 years)
3. 1,590kt LCE (20ktpa 2 years, 50ktpa 3 years, 100 ktpa 14 years)
4. 2,390kt LCE (20ktpa 2 years, 50ktpa 3 years, 100 ktpa 6 years, 200ktpa 8 years)
One simple method for estimating an NPV value is to pick a realised cash flow per kt of LCE and discount it for the mining plan schedule. I used $3,000/t (consider it after all costs and taxes if it seems too low!) and 50% previously, but other values are available. ;-)
1. Percentage of the 603kt LCE associated with the JV is 11.95% (page 138 of the feasibility study), which is 3.6% to KDNC, 21.7kt LCE. (KDNC 3.6%, BCN 48.2%, Ganfeng 48.2%). KDNC value 21.7kt * $3,000/t * 50% = $32.5m
2. Assume 50% of the 287kt of additional LCE in 1 above is from the JV area.
KDNC 21.7kt + (287kt * 50% * 30%) = 64.8kt LCE (KDNC 7.3%, BCN 46.35%, Ganfeng 46.35%) KDNC value: 64.8kt * $3,000/t * 50% = $97.2m
3. Assume 70% of the 700kt of additional LCE in 2 above is from the JV area.
KDNC 64.8kt + (700kt * 70% * 30%) = 211.8kt LCE (KDNC 13.3%, BCN 43.35%, Ganfeng 43.35%) KDNC value: 211.8kt * $3,000/t * 50% = $317.7m
4. Assume 90% of the 800kt of additional LCE in 3 above is from the JV area.
KDNC 211.8kt + (800kt * 90% * 30%) = 427.8kt LCE (KDNC 17.9%, BCN 41.05%, Ganfeng 41.05%) KDNC value: 427.8kt * $3,000/t * 50% = $641.7m
]===
Short term I believe our value will move from 1 to 2 as the plans are written down, but potentially as high as 3 medium term, or even 4 longer term.
Ob.
Evening All
Thanks for updates.
Great to see a note from Ivybush and even more pleased that he is still in this journey.
Good Luck all
We must be due good news soon.
Stay safe
Rich
P.s Enjoy this side of KDNC .......
@News Thanks for the mention. Although quiet of late I am still very much a shareholder here!
On Lithium investment, I would hope now Ganfeng are involved and with forecast of high demand for
product we will see our JV come into play earlier than 8yrs away. I expect to see an announcement
for a big increase in proposed production to include our jv area, although to avoid capex a sale would
be likely imv. Agreed this is only speculation at present.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2021/02/23/uk-listed-lithium-prospects-firm-up/
Investors Chronicle, 23.2.21
& "RACE TO RICHES."- Investors Chronicle, 28 .1.21 [link within the above article, also by IC]
The IC article starts with the PAST lithium situ: "After a false start 3 years ago, prospective producers appear on steadier ground."
BACANORA MINERALS was featured as 1 of the co*s listed in London. It also mentioned the PAST, CURRENT AND INTO THE FUTURE - this is a COMMON REPORTING METHOD.
EMH was not mentioned because there was not much news at the time of this IC article.
Against all this, IC talks of the lithium market, prices etc but things have MOVED FORWARD FURTHER via the Fastmarket*s article I cited today.
---
The Australian mkt for lithium co*s is even more active and Firefinch is about to spin out their Goulamina lithium asset in Mali as they say that investors want pure plays given Firefinch is mixed with gold which investors are not keen on.
This morning, the London South East conducted an interview with a CEO of a listed London co in royalties and they are bought up a royalty share in THACKER PASS, Nevada [ranked in the top 10] which is a Tier 1 asset. Wait for it - they PAID £28 Million. Mind you, in the interview, Thacker Pass has not yet got financing but could raise $400m. Of course, this is in Nevada, USA so the jurisdiction is Tier 1 also.
Thacker Pass is owned by Lithium Americas and from last checking, the mkt cap is $2bn+ from recall. They have another project in Latin America and Ganfeng is in on that project at 51% JV ownership.
So, just a short glimpse as what is happening in the LITHIUM SPACE which is INDUSTRY NEWS.
In short, there is so much interest in lithium but folks I gather are busy watching ships?
So, I end here as the story is moving on in LITHIUM pretty quickly.
News, Mon 22 Mar 2021.
KDNC has 30% JV with Bacanora at the next licence, also at Sonora ETC. Bacanora owns 100% of Ventana, Sonora which represents 88% of the mined ore fee per miningdataonline.com info.
The mine life is 19 years for this Stage 1 JV with Ganfeng.
@Barksy1: "I would like to think it*s payback time now, wouldn*t you:). Our turn for some upside."
Mon, 11:12 in response to my last post also, today.
---------
LoL - Rec
I would say you have "commercial nous." Why? From the Bloomberg article that I cited, the reason for this is that lithium supply is tight. I will tweet an article for you on Twitter from Fastmarkets who track lithium prices and you will be able to see how desperate folks are in the lithium buyers mkt with prices rising as is commonly known. You will be aware what happens when Wall Street smell money?
I have been working on this for some time now and my last post at 11am today is the culmination of a strategic review on REM*s assets. Unfortunately, REM-KDNC does not own Sonora although REM paid for the drilling etc without which, Sonora would not even exist. No one wanted to finance drilling except our Founder, DL.
DL does not appear amused at what happened? We have remained supportive but perhaps we have been put into the same barrel of apples or he is not supposed to mention REM etc as he is no longer Chairman, thanks to the other apples from what I have gathered?
Whilst the co is keen to help in restoring the previous capital positions of REM*ers by the current board, they have taken a different direction into iron ore. As such, the lithium space is now
rather looking quiet as the Founder is no longer here?
Therefore, one has to take things FORWARD. Unfortunately, I have not been successful with my engagement on this forum or REM.
So, depends on how this lithium story which was at REM moves forward into KDNC today. Otherwise, one may have to wait till Year 8 [BCN] which Kiran Mozaria, CEO, KDNC mentioned in his last interview?
You may represent a sizeable group and if you are keen on getting value on the lithium, then one would have to take things forward. At the very least, to enquire. Ivybush may no longer be in at this time and he was able to engage with Kiran M at the KDNC AGM to great effect in that he obtained answers to a whole list of questions.
I have been moving on towards this but given the lack of co-operation, I have left this alone on this forum and on REM.
Hope this clarifies further. To get "UPSIDE", one will need to "EVENTUATE" events otherwise,it is passive and the market is not responding yet to this. Kiran M has spoken to the MM*s before and did make headway so things have improved but not to the extent one wants. Hence, why a move forward may be needed. I am talking about LITHIUM which you are responding to.
News,
Mon, 22 Mar 2021.
I would like to think it’s payback time now, wouldn’t you ;). Our turn for some upside ....
"Investors are betting Big On A LITHIUM Comeback less than 3 years after prices collapsed and sent miners reeling."- Bloomberg, 21.3.21
-"Lithium miners in the Americas raised BILLIONS amid rebounding prices."
https://twitter.com/lithiumforum/status/1373569357498945537
--------
My Comment:
I provide definitive proof that NOT only are lithium prices rebounding, billions have been raised by lithium miners per the Bloomberg article. This is the back-up to what I said on REM plc on the lithium legacy assets namely: SONORA LITHIUM [Bacanora Minerals] & CINOVEC [EMH], both investee co*s of REM.
Today, as on Fri, 19.3.21, BCN has a mkt cap of some £145m and EMH £175m. Both these two investee co*s are enjoy the BIG MKT CAPS ON THE LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE for lithium stocks.
KDNC no longer holds some 20% in BCN but has a 30% JV in the next stage of the licence at Sonora. With EMH, KDNC still holds some 10%+ per the last RNS of recent days.
Sonora is Ranked No 1 with the link provided several times by others as well and Cinovec is Europe*s largest hard rock lithium deposit.
So, proof of what D.Lenigas said in his 2017 video interview with Proactive Investors UK that "LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL" on 7 Feb 2017.
Without REM*s financing of Sonora from the beginning, there would be no Sonora today.
So, great foresight and one acknowledged by the lithium community and ranked as such.
It was a great privilege to follow the story of lithium in the early days of inception.
News, 22 Mar 2021 [Mon]
thanks for that obs. Ill keep off the main feed for now. Lots of bears around. A few likely want to get the shares lower under the pretence of having a balanced view. Market can decide. Interesting that likely a supply cut in iron ore coming imo. Could see prices keep going up over the next few months.
@EyeGuy, I thought you might like to know that when the initial news came out:
"Heads of Terms to Acquire Interest in former Anglo American Iron Ore Mine, Amapá, NE Brazil" (21 May 2019)
http://irservices.netbuilder.com/ir/cadence/newsArticle.php?ST=REM&id=2790390
===[
65% Iron Ore (CFR) North China have increased from US$95.95 per dry metric tonne ("$/dmt") to US$111.90 / dmt since early September 2018 to the middle of May 2019
]===
Also, I think 62% Fe was in the range $90-100/t IIRC, which seems to correspond with the above.
News- the sticking point on all these big projects is financing. Bear in mind the owners of Amapa including kdnc will have to find $168 million to fund the capex on the main mine. Majority of this is for railway and port rehabilitation. Note also when the initial news came out the iron ore price was $61 so a big chunk of cake would still be needed post shipments as the iron ore stock pile would be worth $80 mill.
Now the iron ore stockpile is worth circa $235 million, so even taking off tax and shipping if all the monies were out towards the mine capex, the mine would likely to be funded or almost. This changes the risk profile somewhat of this company. The iron ore price unlocks a $billion (or more )mine for KDNC once the creditor settlement is completed
I have watched David Lenigas*s Proactive Investors interview of 2017 entitled: "Lithium the new oil." This was in relation to the Sonora*s and Cinovec*s including the firm he is advising.
Why did I watch this? Today, is Sun 7 Mar 2021 and the hot topic and investment in Australia, Europe and elsewhere is about lithium and the rising prices which is now commonly known.
So, Kiran Mozaria*s latest interview which is on the Cadence Minerals Twitter website confirms that both for Sonora [BCN and JV with KDNC] and Cinovec [EMH, a KDNC investee co] has survived going to the wall unlike many others during the lithium fall-out of earlier years. This is due to their low cost base.
So, now KDNC is changing route to Amapa iron ore. I understand that Kiran Mozaria in the past contacted the market-makers to see if they could value KDNC also on the JV projects as the market only considered KDNC*s mark-to-market investments which had an open market value.
Kiran Mozaria said in the latest interview that Cinovec [EMH] has gone from some $3m -$13/14m in terms of mark-to-market value. This is the underlying value underpinning KDNC*s share price given that the market cap of KDNC at 19p is some £28m. So, it is good that the market has given the EXTRA allowance in the KDNC share price.
LONDON SOUTH EAST FORUMS - New direction
Many now look to asking and concentrate more on information rather than the old days of either over-exuberance or over-pessimism or personality events. Even for share price forecast, if the share price is 0.13p and folks give out a price of 30, 40,50p, it is NO longer popular and people say "dont talk nonsence." So, a more realistic crowd now in all the successful forum -folks want a more realistic hypothesis.
So, I was not aware that this is not the case everywhere - perhaps it will catch up here too.
AMAPA
KDNC will have changed from more exploration success in the past to a production model wherein the market or mm*s will rate the co on its profit figures once the JV with Sino is up and running. So, interesting to see the coming 1st interim result from Amapa together with the norm of some guidance on the iron ore mkt and prices common to all reporting iron ore big co*s.
I now take my leave with thanks to all those who are friendly at KDNC share forum.
Thank you and ta ta.
News
Sun 7 Mar 2021
Over the last 24 hrs , I have now figured out what this latest conversation event has been about.
Its a bit dated type of convo but the more progressive forums have now moved on from this pattern. The people who can provide accurate analysis is more in demand ie hypothesis that can actually eventuate to real results later. Eg Lenigas*s 2017 interview is now TESTED in 2021 and found to be 100% accurate relating to the lithium mkt etc and all his 3 co*s in the lithium space investments show foresight and PROVEN now.
Not editing as about to have dinner.
P.S.
I was shocked that FRANKIE GOT ...OFF THE MAIN FORUM AT KDNC.
I read it one day via Bannor post to say that Frankie had gone.
No wonder why MANY WILL NO LONGER POST.
Observer842.
If you say it is out of kindness, then do not kindly use "challenge". If that was said in the supermarket to a stranger, I dare not think what will happen if the chap is 6 foot 5 and looks like a heavy weight boxer. Nor use it on the boss for obvious reasons.
As for "false" that has 2 meanings, one , at the bottom of the page could mean that it is "misleading" or "legal" implications. THERE IS NOTHING FALSE about not up to the minute on shipping iron ore stockpile dates. HOW CAN THAT BE FALSE? KDNC SAY 12 MTHS, NOW ITS 18 MTHS. There are so many interview from KDNC and Mr Alan Green so where can I be taking my info from except from these? NO HARM DONE IF ITS NOT 18 MONTHS BUT 17 MTHS KINDA OF THING.
THERE WILL BE AN RNS SHORTLY TO UPDATE SHAREHOLDERS SO AT THAT POINT, IN BLACK AND WHITE WE WILL ALL KNOW. Meanwhile, NO ONE CAN SAY IT X OR Y. You say its from 2019, 2021 but an upcoming RNS will be D E F I N I T I V E AS THAT WILL BE FROM THE FINALISATION OF THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE BANK CREDITORS AND KDNC. KDNC WILL THEN INFORM THAT THEY HAVE TAKEN 20% AND THIS IS THE TIMELINE AND TIME TABLE.
So, using words that are ...do NOT APPEAR FRIENDLY and if to insist, then the only way to resolve it is to go to the FCA first and if not satisfied, then to Court to say News was not right to say its 18 months to ship, it is X....and so forth. No harm if you fancy a day in court although I was told that it would cost £50k when 2 persons fought over a tree in their garden ie neighbours. That would not include COSTS TO WHOEVER LOSES. SO, HOUSE, SHIRT CAN ALL GO.
So, kindly dont say people have put out"false" just because of a DATE WHICH IS IRRELEVANT ANYWAY AT THIS POINT. NO KDNC RNS TO SAY SHIPPING HAS STARTED ONLY FOLKS SPOTTING BOATS AND ALL?
I do not deem it friendly when you say, observer842 you need to "challenge" and then to say that it is true it is "false" that the date is X, and not y.
It happens all over forums and KIND PEOPLE JUST TELL OTHERS THE LATEST DATES ETC BUT NEVER POST I CHALLENGE YOUR DATE AND IT IS FALSE- my word- post that on the main forum KDNC and see what happens.
No, not kind at all.
News, Sat 6 Mar 2021.
For some reason, both of us are going on about share price of tomorrow - today it is 19p or thereabouts and DESPITE TWITTER, KDNC FORUM, NO ONE HAS RUSHED IN.
There is a chap that follows me and he is a Tier 1 holder of some co8s. He bought in at 5p area or when he posted it was around that. HE NEVER TWEETS ABOUT IT THESE DAYS. He has not taken a Tier 1 position.
You should convince him LoL to get back in.
DONT WORRY, PEOPLE WILL RUSH IN IF IT IS GOOD VIA RNS.
Sat, 6 Mar 2021.
OK, I am off and will not post anymore on KDNC. I will follow my own rules from now on. ADMIN TOLD ME TO FILTER AND I T
@news. May I ask you to do one thing as a favour. Take a deep breath, get a cup of your favourite brew, and sit down and slowly read what I have written on here since Monday - just my posts, and assume that I was trying to help. Read with a smile if you like, I tend to post with one as it helps with the mood I find. I was trying to help with your understanding, but I think you misinterpreted something I said and thought I was attacking you. I wasn't. Peace out! :-)))))
P.S.
Its a pity observer842 that this conversation should have taken so many pages.
I should have asked Cause17 and Bannor in the 1st place as they articulated the answer very well in a direct answer.
No, NO NEGATIVITY AT ALL - WE, ALL JUST WANT TO WAIT TILL THE RNS COMES OUT AND THAT IS WHAT IS ON TWITTER #KDNC, ADVFN and ALL THOSE ON THE MAIN KDNC FORUM EXCEPT THE VERY FEW THAT WANT TO INSIST.
ITS A MATTER OF ONE*S POSITION - if one has shares what does it matter anyway?
Its only to decide whether to add, that*s all.
So, I have decided not to add.
I said that I dont like iron ore projects and have never invested in any iron ore co.
Nothing wrong with that.
If you both feel that you are going to be MILLIONAIRES @ KDNC at £5-£10 that is your own position, view so NO NEED TO CONVINCE ME or others who will have their own ideas.
Ta.Ta.
News, Sat 6 Mar 2021.
RESOLUTION FOR SELF: NEVER GO TO A LONELY SHARE FORUM SITE.
2] NEVER TAKE ANY THING FURTHER TO ASK OR REPLY AS IT IS OF NO USE IE TO AND FRO.
3] SEE IF THE FORUM IS FRIENDLY AND ONE HAS FRIENDS, IF NO AVOID.
4] DO NOT REPLY AS IT IS JUST TO .... AS HAS HAPPENED.
O.K NEXT TIME, I WILL LEARN THE NEW RULES FOR MYSELF.
All those that are nice, polite and friendly and not go on, thank you as its enjoyable listening to some common sense folks especially in the investing profession who are more nuanced. Pity there is NO BROKER NOTE that is recent or up to date on KDNC on the new Amapa direction and their share projection, FCA licenced. I would have like to have read Hannan, Tier 1 London investments bankers with a specialist metals section. Always worth the read or SP Angel?
Yes, I was trying to educate you out of kindness, as you have educated me plenty over the years. Apologies if it hasn't come across this way. As to my estimates, if it plays in our favour then I'll be quite disappointed we aren't over £5 a share when Amapa is at full production.
LoL
You are doing it out of kindness, Observer842 to correct everything?
Ah no, do not miss what I said: I said that for now, KDNC has put out via an RNS that iron ore is US$60 per ton via their modelling. Until that changes via FURTHER FORWARD GUIDANCE IN AN RNS. In the meantime, I said to EyeGuy, lets TAKE DOUBLE at US$120 per tonne for now and NOT at the full price of US$176/t for 62% fe. As far as I am aware KDNC NEVER GAVE OUT OFFICIAL FIGURES OF THEIR ANTICIPATED COST FOR AMAPA IRON ORE - so how folks say it is less than $30, I am not sure. That Portugese article on the Amapa railway said the "INTERNAL COST OF AMAPA IRON ORE IS HIGH AT us$70." This is in relation to mentioning that when ZAMIN TOOK OVER , IRON ORE PRICE FELL TO $40-how did he go bust then?
FOR THE AVOIDANCE OF DOUBT, I HAVE BEEN SUPPORTIVE OF REM AND THE FOUNDER and I feel that REM had a bright future given Sonora and Cinovec which was an astute investment by the Founder of REM, now called KDNC.
However, during the bear commodity cycle esp lithium, KDNC had to sell down their 20% BCN shares re: Sonora and now have the 30% JV.
So, I FEEL THAT THIS NEW DIRECTION INTO AMAPA IS ONE WHICH I DID NOT INVEST IN AND ONE IN WHICH I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MY WAY LIKE EVERYONE ELSE. No point shutting discussion down as on another site, they are also ASKING THE SAME THING.
So, both of you would have to go over to that site to EDUCATE THEM OR SPREAD YOUR KINDNESS. As for kindness, I asked you a question Observer842 and you just ignore me.
SO, IN THE FUTURE, IF YOUR FORECAST DOES NOT COME IN AT £5-10 FOR KDNC SHARE PRICE, @49% OWNERSHIP OF AMAPA IRON ORE PROJECT AT FULL PRODUCTION, THAT WILL OR COULD BE YOUR C.V.
As for me, I do not make FORECASTS of share prices-KIRAN MOZARIA HIMSELF IN HIS LATEST INTERVIEW DID NOT SAY ANYTHING LIKE WHAT YOU ARE FORECASTING, OR EYEGUY*S IS SAYING. He thinks it is ...but DID NOT SAY X PRICE ETC.
On the main forum, I note that ANSWERS ARE NOT PROVIDED EXCEPT TO PASS ...COMMENT which does not help the compelling case for KDNC.
Its a NEW DIRECTION AND EVERYONE WANTS TO KNOW.
I saw Ivybush*s name pop up recently but no further posts. PENSIONPOT who with Isdeer from REM plc days at 0.04p days has also disappeared. I think the forum if not friendly any more will not attract posters from old to post anymore.
LoL-I see that you are posting reams from all the pages of the Sonora project and filling up the forum like of old when one one asks a question.
VERY SUCCESSFUL SHARE HAVE A FRIENDLY NOTE AND EVERYONE IS ASKING AND LOTS OF NICE REPLIES that helps everyone.
I END WITH NO IT HAS NOT BEEN HELPFUL TO ME. ON THE MAIN FORUM, 2 PEOPLE HAVE REPLIED TO MY QUESTION AND I AM VERY HAPPY WITH THAT. IT IS A VERY CLEAR ANSWER WITH CAVEATS AND MAKES THE DISTINCTION BETWEEN THE us$10m profit allowed and that is a differential from the rest plus the agreement not signed yet.
So, no, it has not been helpful to me if its jus
I think this does over £1 on the 27%. cant see it not tbh
Perhaps @Eyeguy. I've got a fair few filters on, so hopefully I've caught most. The way I'm hoping this plays (THIS IS MY SPECULATIVE HOPE/OPINION) is that if iron ore prices, shipping and exchange rates are similar to today's when we take 20% we rise to around 60-70p raising to £1+ on 27% news and further project developments. Eventually rising to £5+ on 49% news (especially if this is achieved by selling an asset rather than dilution) and during the ramp up to or at full production. Nice to have a vision, but I'm not so naive to know it could play out horribly for us as it did when lithium dipped heavily a few years ago. Iron ore could dive below $40/t for instance. We can never know. Just fingers crossed we sign the deal imminently to take advantage of the current economic environment! :-))))
Obs- my gut feeling is 3 or possibly 4 of the main “longtermers” on the main BB are spreadbetting long and short swings. Anything they say must be taken with the proverbial pinch of salt.
I have been doing these boards for years and I can spot them a mile off lol
@EyeGuy:
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news- just to be clear no one including me is asking you to buy or sell shares in kdnc or other shares for that matter.
I am posting my opinion and showing my workings. if you believe we should use the $61 price of iron ore and base your price predictions on that then that's up to you. However imo it would be pointless to do that particularly as shipping starts any time and they will be getting almost 3 x that from each shipment. but again if you want to use $61 then that's your call fella.
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100% agree.
@News. There is no one on the other board that doubts what @EyeGuy and me have been trying to tell you: That shipping CAN commence before the agreement with the banks has been finalised - whether it WILL is another matter. We were trying to help you to understand why you were wrong on this matter (you are correct on so many other matters as you a well informed poster) in order for you to improve your understanding of the Amapa situation, which hopefully following our discussions you now have - neither me or EyeGuy have anything to gain in doing this, other than trying to help another poster, it's called kindness. :-)))
I really hope that explains why we kept at it, and as you say: peace out ;-)
Ob.