Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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At $3.8/lb copper, KAZ has a run rate ebitda of $2 billion (and that's without Aktogay 2)!
At conservative 5x that's $10bn EV and debt dropping to below $1.5bn by end of year.
At current £/$ fx rate this would translate to £12.90 per share!
I thinks it's time for Nova to admit defeat and pull the offer. Let the company trade freely so we can finally see the £12 sp it deserves.
https://www.mining.com/copper-price-surges-to-new-8-year-high-on-supply-worries/
Copper moves above $3.8/lb, heading fast towards $4/lb.
Surely a further increase in the offer, this time above 900p, is looking quite likely now.
Hedge funds are accumulating. Looking good! GLA
I think any broker might have a job to argue they were acting in shareholders' best interests accepting an offer to sell a holding on a shareholder's behalf at a price significantly below the market bid.
I said a few months ago the offer needs to front the the no 8. now I am looking for a front no of 9
I agree the sp will need to be north of 900p for most of the shareholders to sell up. However, if shareholders dont respond to the corporate action in regards to the recent 780p offer , some brokers default position is to agree. Please make sure your decision and voice is heard!
https://www.mining.com/copper-price-lifted-by-us-stimulus-china-inventory-squeeze/
The bid might well be successful, however in my view not at the offer of 780. I am expecting the price to break though and hold above the £8 level. I also expect a further increased offer. All this is my view. I am holding.
ATB
Bottled
Can you remember when it was hovering around 640p after the 8th when no one sells it'll soon be at 850+ when they put in a realistic offer.
This has been hovering around 800 all day. Does that suggest the 780 bid may be successful?
Kaz has always been a volatile share and I, for one,have enjoyed the adventure . I'll be sorry to see it go. If indeed it does go.
Nova's bid financing facility agreement with VTB Bank has been made public and is available for everyone to see. It shows that they have $3.52bn available to them to buy out KAZ shareholders. Assuming they fixed the £/$ exchange rate at the time 640p offer was made, I calculate that they used up $2.4bn of the $3.52bn facility to make their initial offer. This means they had $1.12bn of additional funds in the kitty before they upped the bid today. THEY COULD HAVE INCREASED THEIR OFFER TO 925p PER SHARE. This is what they budgeted for when asking for a loan from VTB bank. Clearly this is what they believe KAZ is worth - 925p per share! Shareholders should not accept their 780p offer, IMHO, and wait for the full 925p being tabled.
RWC statement flies squarely in the face of the not-so-independent committee who said they consulted with the shareholders before recommending the offer. Liars. They ignored the shareholders. For them there are only two shareholders who matter are Mr. Novachuk and Mr. Kim.
From FT :”RWC Partners said this week that a bid of 1,000p a share would be more acceptable to minority shareholders.
“As we forecast that Kaz Minerals will generate more than $5.5bn of ebitda over the next three years, it is our opinion that the £7.80 per share offer price still materially undervalues the company,” RWC Partners said in a statement on Thursday”
Given that the offer will now be sent to shareholders only on Feb 8th (at the earliest) and the minimum offer period of 21 days, we will all have the opportunity to see the results on Feb 25th before making any decisions. And for those who have doubts and think whether they should yield to NoVa offer, I hope the results would show how much this offer undervalues the outstanding quality of this company's assets. I believe the result would once and for all put a nail in this offer's coffin.
I expect net cash cost of production to decline significantly compared to last year given substantially higher gold and silver prices and devaluation of the Kazakhstan local currency, firmly keeping KAZ in the lowest cost producer GLOBALLY! Copper production was above the top of the guided range (280-300kt) at 306kt. All this should translate into EBITDA of at least the same and likely higher value than last year, probably around $1.5bn or thereabout. Capex was curtailed due to covid uncertainties. This all means net debt should decrease to about $2.5bn against expectations of a rise to $3bn at start of the year. We should hear an update on Aktogay Phase 2 which I expect to be on time and on budget, commencing production later this year. We should see production guidance for 2021 at similar levels to 2020 as the management will again be conservative and discount any production from Aktogay 2 (but we should expect 2021 production should actually be higher than in 2020, at around 310-320kt). At current prices the expectations should be for 2021 EBITDA of $1.9-2.0bn.
Do your own math, make your own minds, but I agree with Hash, the shares should be trading well above £12, so any offers below £10 are just too low and disrespectful, but nevertheless welcome as they provide a nice floor for the price in case of general market volatility. Great investment this is turning out to be! IMHO, DYOR
Rastuss, I'd say that Mr. Southam's career is over. He's well and truly shown himself as the oligarchs' stooge. But then, he's likely to make so much money from this he probably wouldn't care too much.
The longer they leave it before a further increase in their offer ,the more the price of copper will rise imv , making any revision look low. We shall see.
Thank you Shakhtar for reenforcing my believe in the value of kaz.
I totally agree the revised offer is no where near a fair offer. It grossly undervalues the company. I am glad I held on to my shares for so long and will continue to do so as the current copper/silver/gold prices should have got kaz to be in the region of 12-15 GBP.
They have clearly not thought this through.......If they had offered 770 instead of 630 to start with they might have got the deal and now even 770 is too low and moreover they have put themselves in spotlight so no real chances of doing hanky panky in the background.....
This is funny. Hope they did not pay the lawyers, etc too much! It needs to be a realistic offer; the offer price was so close to the market price no one would accept it, and the RNS is rather condescending.
Very good shaktar!
Mr Nova-Nova should change the name of his bid vehicle. This is funny, I just realised, "NO VA" means "No Go" in Spanish. And like the sales of infamous Chevy "Nova" in Mexico never took off the ground, so will this stupid offer fail and will NOT GO unless he ups the price to £10... and changes that egotistic name. LOL
This is a very important point indeed, Rastuss. If they’d called it final, they would be prevented from increasing it by the takeover code. Not calling it final they showed their hand - they CAN increase it further and they are leaving themselves this opportunity, so obviously they are serious about it, they will NOT walk away, and if market demands, they WILL increase the offer further. Well, lets make sure we all tell them clearly - this company is worth £10, so increase your offer to the fair price and call it final!
Good morning Rastuss
I don’t think this is enough in fact comes across as mean! I would expect the share price to trade above the 7.80 offer.
I will sit this out further
ATB
Bottled
HODL!!
The so-called “independent” committee bent over yet again. Come on, are you looking after us, minority shareholders, or your own pockets?
780p is NOT ENOUGH!
Stop you scaremongering tactics. If you believe Baimskaya to be so risky, just DON’T develop it, sell it!
The company produces 300kt of copper, soon to be increased to 380kt with the imminent start of Aktogay Phase 2. And it does it at 70 cents per pound. At today’s copper price that translates to EBITDA of $6200 per tonne of copper produced, or $1.9bn for 2021 going up ton$2.4bn in 2022. So Nova Consortium have just offered us 3 times Ebitda for the mines which will operate for 25 years?! Come on, you think we are stupid or what?!
TRY HARDER!
I will not be giving you my shares until I see an offer number starting with a 9 at least. 1000p is what shareholders really deserve. Don’t insult our intelligence Mr Novachuk, Mr Kim, and the Not-So-Independent Committee.