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Nova Increased offere to £7.80
:-) or :-/
I totally agree with Shakhtar's post of this afternoon ,also his posts of yesterday.
A bid in the mid 800s now seems plausible. I would accept a bid of 900 for my holdings but anything below the early 800s would be decidedly unattractive and I would vote against it. Tomorrow is now not far away. Fingers crossed for a favourable solution. Good luck to all holders. OJB
Bid is due tomorrow, it's time to put up or shut up!
We are trading at 770p, so any bid below that is dead in the water. They need to offer at least 10% above, that's 850p, to have any chance of success in securing the required 75% to delist.
What are they going to do? Bid low and give us 60 days (maximum time allowed by the Takeover Code before offer fails) and hope the market will crash in the meantime and shareholder will sell? Or will they bid high and give us 21 days (minimum required time) to accept the offer before the annual report is out on 25th February?
It seems to me the latter strategy would be a wise thing to do. Bid 850p minimum and get this over and done with by end of the month. Will greed prevails though over common sense? We will know in the morning.
GLA
More reports of expectations for an increased bid:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consortium-likely-raise-bid-kaz-153348893.html
"A revision up to 8 pounds will not make the price attractive..."
https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/kaz-minerals-suitor-said-to-mull-sweetening-2-4-billion-buyout
Bloomberg just reported that revised bid is coming, expected in the 700-750 range.
That is ridiculous if this is true. Shares are already changing hands above the top of that range, and we've seen 785p just a few days ago (not to mention 807p intraday high today).
Are they really so thick not to see that shareholders simply won't sell at this level?
And surely the so-called "Independent Committee" and their advisers will not be recommending an offer in this range, given that both existing shareholders and the market clearly see it as undervaluing the company. Let's see how independent this committee really is...
Thanks for that Shakhar interesting article, something is going on as this spike at over £8 for a minute earlier. lets see what happens.....
ATB
Bottled
Looks like someone knows something we don't. Price just shot up to 805-810p at around 10:58 and a few trades were made at those prices before it retreated but still up 3% trading 765p whilst copper is down nearly 1%. Takeover Panel should be asking the company to make the announcement to explain this.
Good article:
https://www.intellinews.com/minority-investors-says-gbp1bn-2bn-missing-from-kaz-minerals-buyout-offer-valuation-201759/?source=kazakhstan
Give us 900p Mr. Novachuk and maybe I'll start thinking then about giving you my shares.
Hello Mr. P
We will know more on or before the 4th February.
ATB Bottled
How and when can one know that this attempt for hostile takeover is abandoned ? Will there be an RNS for this ?
Makes a change that we are in the blue on results day!! ........Good show
ATB
Bottled
Maybe cos of the copper price?!
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html
Does anyone know such a big drop this week?
Bakered, whoops previous attempt to mail cut out.
As I see it they can only compulsorily require us all to sell our holdings if and when a takeover bid is agreed covering the required percentage( see Bottled's mail,below). . As things stand that should not be the 640; no holder in their right mind (pi or ii) would agree to that .
Once a bid is made AND agreed - one would assume somewhat north of the current SP -then KAZ as we know it will cease to be available to trade and we will have to surrender our shares at the agreed price...I would expect that to be above 800. Meanwhile trading still going on as before.
I am only just returning to the swing of thing s
Good luck,OJB
Bottled - thanks for your helpful reply. I still hold a few k of Kaz and will continue to do so,at least until Feb 4.
Bakered...
Do we think that they are going to make improved offer which surely must be above the current price. Can the force us to accept the 640p offer?
Hello OJB
This is a hostile take over, please see below the latest announcement on their website, they are looking to make an announcement on or before the 4th February 2021. see below for the latest info from their web site.
https://www.kazminerals.com/en/repository/news-container/news/2020/update-on-satisfaction-of-regulatory-conditions/
https://industryeurope.com/sectors/metals-mining/kaz-minerals-investors-to-resist-3bn-buyout/
https://www.ft.com/content/b49d794f-030e-4229-b4b3-5a22650b526a
I would very much doubt they would tell us if they were to kick the can down the road.
I think they need 75% of the shares to delist and 90% of the shares to compulsory purchase.
ATB
Bottled
https://www.mining.com/copper-price-defies-predictions-of-a-pullback/
Quote from the article:
"...“Any price pullback to $7,600 should be used to build longs. We expect copper prices to reach $9,500 by mid-2021,” analysts at UBS said..."
I wonder if those UBS analysts are the same ones that issued a recommendation to the Independent Committee that 640p was a fair price for KAZ, which at $9500 copper would generate EBITDA of $2.5 billion (and that's on current production levels, disregarding Aktogay-2 coming soon) and Net profit after tax of $1.6 billion, or 250p per share, making that recommended offer valued at P/E of 2.5x !!! On this basis alone UBS should be prosecuted for their role in all this.
Hi Bottled and all. I used to post frequently here having enjoyed trading Kaz with some success. Now trying to catch up with recent posts. Shakhtar's explanation of 14 jJan covers things well . Just a few questions...is there a time frame for any
offer (presumably a revised one) to be made ? If Mr Kim & Co decide to kick the can down the road,would they tell us so?
If an offer is made and accepted are we shareholders automatically required to sell directly to the new owner without the participation of a broker?
Forgive the naivety of my questions; I've been out of touch for a couple of years and have not faced a potential takeover scenario before. If you or anyone can guide me,my thanks in advance. OJB.
I don't think there is going to be any delisting. as it strands who in the world would even consider accepting an offer of 640 p when the market price is 760 p?
I think I should have bought more kaz at when I wrote the message wondering why it was not closer to 800 p ....
What's process and impact (on retail investors) of delisting?
Good to see a half decent up tick so far today, although held back with the carry on.... if or most likely when it hit £8 then imv Kim & co will have to reconsider either upping the offer, canning it or kick it down the road.
Of course all depends on Doctor Coppers price as to how it pans out. Again imv the Doctor is very looking healthy for a good few months to come.
ATB
Bottled
I agree, the boat has sailed. They need to be bidding £10 now to have a solid chance to pull this through within a short time frame. Otherwise it would be a protracted process as shareholders wait it out, hoping for another upward revision, and the risk is then high that no bid will succeed, particularly if copper price continues on its current uptrend (which I think is very likely)
740P and I think many shareholders like myself have now changed their mind even on selling out at £8 given the copper prices... so I doubt takeover would ever happen and this might go back to £10-15 as even the Russian project with all the additional costs looks like a sound investment on the hindsight.....