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Source: Financial Times https://share.google/XSAWpy4BMMmchP8DQ

Really interesting article that might shed some light on how Glencore is valued in future. FT sub required

Worth exploring Strategic Partnership Agreement, in the context of the Orion Critical Mineral Consortium. US endorsed Exim (financing) also significantly derisks the Argentinian projects. In a nutshell the US is playing catch-up with china on critical minerals and is using Glencore as a partner/tool to do it.

There may be more to the DRC deal than meets the eye https://www.mining.com/web/us-government-plans-new-mining-house-to-tap-africas-copperbelt/?hl=en-GB#:~:text=A%20US%20government%2Dbacked%20group's,accumulate%20mining%20assets%20in%20Africa.

From all accounts Glen wanted 40% of the merged business. Anyone engaging with them in the future will now know how Glen values itself. BHP may be put off by that position (I think they are better off from a copper pipeline perspective than Rio)

I thought it was on a steeper downward trajectory than that, still going in the right direction tho and with the improvement in coal prices it should pay itself off (unless the debt gets swallowed up in the Rio deal). Yep you are right tho it was game on when the new Rio guy got appointed. Not sure whether BHP's involvement is gonna help (bump up the price) or potentially derail the deal from getting done...

I think since the last time talks stopped Glencore tidied up all their coal assets and paid down a lot of debt. Maybe Glen pulled out thinking timing wasn't right. Interestingly Rio are willing to take on coal assets this time, maybe the realisation that they were too hasty binning off their coal assets.

I have everything crossed for this to come off. Even if they agree on a premium the big worry is the regulators. Unlikely they (especially China) are going to allow one company to control supply and set the price. They gonna have to give something up to get it through. Even worse if BHP get them. Hopefully out by the time this gets resolved :)

I have held Glencore for so long believing in the copper gold rush and transitional metals. Now it appears to be happening and it seems as though Glencore are nowhere to be seen.

Yep. Xstrata all over zgain

It's pretty rough being invested in Glencore at the moment. There are a couple of upside events that could see improvement. Coal might bottom put. The copper price might spur Glen to increase production (they have the capacity they just need the copper price to justify the production hike). Who knows what the M&A landscape will be over the next year, Rio and or restructuring. US listing, China recovery (especially considering the way the Americans are shaping up). European rearmament, Russia being brought back in to trade by US etc. There is also the fact that Glen is undervalued by a lot of metrics. I won't be buying more (I have more than enough) but I won't be shorting it either

Met coal

The sooner they get this sorted the better. The move isn't attractive for a UK domiciled investor looking for income so no they will likely lose/fail to attract those types of investors. The run up to the move is likely to be challenging In terms of growth and a reasonable valuation there is likely to be a decent upside. Nagle trailing the move early means that a lot of UK investors will bail.

Glencore 4th largest copper producer. So not insignificant. It's diversification messes up the correlation

Yep. No brainer. Check the performance if coking coal companies in US, Arch SunCoke, Up 30% and 40% respectively over the last quarter.

Glen has remained tight lipped about spinning off its coal ops until now, resisting activist shareholders. The Teck deal is the first official ackowledgment of movement towards a metal pure play. A change in signalling?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/2023/04/06/will-glencore-go-from-teck-s-predator-to-bhp-s-prey-in-mining-m-a/e7ead9e6-d435-11ed-ac8b-cd7da05168e9_story.html

FT article - opportunist by Glen. Goes on to say that if the coal demerger element comes off it leaves them with the largest pure base metals business in the world.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-29/glencore-flags-that-cash-is-tied-up-in-record-trading-profits
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/glencore-is-cashing-in-on-coal-to-dodge-big-minings-slowdown-2022-08-02

Snap, just like my old fella, he would be smiling up there now aswell. A drink to both of them :)

What's process and impact (on retail investors) of delisting?