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Looks like you should have hodled a wee bit longer;?)
I bet we will see announcement as early as next week with the Independent Committee withdrawing their recommendation. Pressure is on!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-13/kaz-minerals-investor-pushes-board-to-scrap-2-4-billion-buyout?srnd=deals
"The deal process should be terminated, as it’s “inconceivable” that minority investors will accept the offer of 640 pence per share, RWC Partners Ltd. wrote in a letter to KAZ directors seen by Bloomberg News."
“Nova Resources should recognise that they will be unable to de-list the company and should immediately begin to harmonise relations with minority shareholders,” RWC wrote. “It would be more beneficial for all shareholders if the company were able to focus on being one of the world’s lowest cost, publicly-listed copper miners rather than continuing along the current path of investor discord.”
Agree 100%!
I think Kim got the timing wrong...
everyone in the industry has been expecting copper prices to firm up for last 2-3 years. all the data is out there to make that conclusion but still copper only moved as soon as Kim made the offer. Had copper remained lower than 3 he might have pulled this off but at current prices and future prospects kaz is worth more than £12. I am sure Kim would not mind paying that extra £2 -£3 pounds a share, to get the shares on cheap. kaz will be generating amazing profits and cashflows at current copper prices.....with the existing mines....
I agree with Shakhtar on this, interesting that the recent broker notes have either increased target price or suggesting to hold the stock, further validates market opinion.
ATB
Bottled
Strong institutional buying over last few days leaves me with no doubt that a much improved bid is coming. Information is already out there and those in the know are buying. I hope Mr.Kim bids at least 900p or else I'm not selling my shares to him.
Whether an offeror is ALLOWED to by shares to achieve 50% (regardless of whether they have secured sufficient undertakings) is a matter of FACT and not opinion. As a matter of fact, at present, they will not be allowed to by those shares (unless they formally change their target and notify shareholders of it). This is where your statement is misleading - your conclusions and your opinions are based on the ASSUMPTION that they have 50%. Which is wrong. Is that clear now?
you obviously didn't read carefully my post, or you don't understand what it says
One thing is clear to me. For over two months now the share price stayed consistently above 640p. Every day millions of shares change hands. So for two months now those people believing 640p is acceptable have been selling and for two months now those people believing 640p is a rubbish offer have been buying. Two months is more than enough time for all those who would have accepted an offer at 640p to exit their investment at a price above that number. Anyone who holds any shares now is surely holding because they will not be accepting the offer, and any offer below today's price. Otherwise, why hold?
This makes it a great investment in these volatile times. Where else can you put your money where downside is known and limited and the upside is virtually assured?
IMHO. DYOR
Rastuss, it is good that you make it clear that you differ from everyone else here. Because your posts are highly misleading. There is no problem about having an opinion, but when expressing it you should make sure you do not inadvertently (or purposefully?) mislead people, thus influencing their opinion and trading decisions. For example, in your last post, you seem to imply that getting to 50% is a done deal (not to mention drawing incorrect conclusion from what this means). To be clear, the offerors' STATED INTENTION was to take the company private, which required achieving 75% holding. "Stated intention" are not just words. What it means is that, in accordance with the Takeover Code, unless they receive enough acceptances from shareholders to enable them to get to 75%, they cannot buy a single share! Now, they can, if they wish, and when they publish their offer documents, revise this statement to require a minimum of 50% of acceptances (which is the minimum required by the Takeover Coder for any takeover to proceed). If they do so, then will indeed be allowed then to buy those shares for which they already received irrevocable undertakings. But that is ONLY if they state in their offer documents that getting to above 50% would be enough for them. AT THE MOMENT, this is not true, and all we know for a fact is that they clearly stated their intention to take the company private, which requires 75%. So as of now, they cannot proceed with purchasing ANY shares unless and until they receive acceptances from 75% less the 39.4% they already own.
So, Rastuss, please, kindly make sure you comments are clear and not misleading, and please refrain from scaremongering!
Clued, no they don't have any shares other than 39.4% they own plus a commitment by 10.6% of their friends to sell to them IF they launch the offer. What people don't seem to understand is that they have NOT yet launched the offer. No offer documents have been sent to shareholders yet. They only announced their intention to offer 640p, and they must put forward their offer before 4 February. SP today is 727p which basically means that shareholders are saying NO, loud and clear, to 640p. So when the offer finally comes through (if at all) it will have to be increased to, probably, well above 800p, or otherwise they will not be able to buy any shares except those 10.6% of their friends who already committed to sell.
To force takeover through, by which I assume you mean force everyone to sell, one needs to acquire 90% of shares. They only have, or rather can get to, 50% at the moment.
Why would the offer of 640p be increased ? Don't the buyers have enough shares to force the takeover through ?
So pleased , I wasn't. Lured into selling!??
wow
3 days ago we were at 670P, 30P premium to offer price...when I commented why is it not moving towards 8, and today we are at 720P which is exactly mid point between 640 P offer price and 800 P revised price I am expecting soon.....
looks much better now. not bad for holding on for 3 more days. may be I should have sold Antofagasta or Glencore on Wednesday when I made the above comment. Both down compared to last Wednesday while Kaz is up 7%.
Heavy selling by associates to drive the price
Rastuss, The s/p here reflects the views of IIs. PIs are just holding the tailcoats. One 'could have' sold and stuck it into bitcoin..., with hindsight!
Rastuss: I disagree with you on everything you said in your last post about what would happen to KAZ once this ridiculous offer fails. I have explained my reasons a few days ago, so no point repeating myself. I do want to address your "you'd been better off..." point, as someone else today raised a similar point. In short, you guys make a number of false assumptions when advising us to dump KAZ and buy ANTO or another copper play.
Firstly, not everyone's investment strategy is just to follow the trend or to have copper in their portfolio, which is what "buy Antofagasta instead" statement advocates. I don't just jump on the copper bandwagon, nor am I a trendfollower. I invest in companies that, in my humble opinion and based on my analysis, trade at substantial discount to their fundamental value, at any time in the cycle, and KAZ is certainly one of such companies. Antofagasta has always been trading at 1.1x NAV (and well above now) so from my viewpoint there is no reason to be holding it. KAZ, on the contrary, has fallen from trading at just under 1.0xNAV before the Baimskaya acquisition to barely holding on to 0.5x NAV since. For a company with such great assets and never missing its production guidance for the last 12 years this is cheap!
Secondly, your statement assumes that KAZ shareholders only have KAZ in their portfolio and not ANTO or GLEN, too. I said why I don't buy ANTO but I do own GLEN, for the same reason of believing that it trades below the fundamental value of its assets. So does FXPO and a number of other companies I hold.
KAZ is a deserving member of my portfolio, and for as long as I believe that it trades below its fundamental value I will be holding the shares, and trading in and out of them depending on how this dynamic changes.
Rastuss: if my granny had balls she'd be called a granddad. "IF" doesn't matter. The FACT is the price is above $8000 per tonne!
Although let's be clear: This takeover attempt will clearly fail
I support !
I Support
Where is the so-called "independent" committee, I wonder? Sitting quiet while the market is telling them what it thinks of this derisory offer by Mr. Kim and Mr. Novachuk. Those directors on the committee must be ashamed of themselves, and Mr. Southam in particular! This offer is doomed and with it the reputation of directors who approved it will be destroyed.
Let's name and shame them all:
Andrew Southam
Michael Lynch-Bell
John MacKenzie
Lynda Armstrong
Charles Watson
Alison Baker
Remember those names and let's make sure we do not put our hard earned cash into shares of companies where they serve as independent directors, now or in the future. And if they read this, or their PR advisors follow comments on this board, I hope they will get the message. And unless they want to be unemployable, they should withdraw their recommendation for this derisory offer without delay.
And whilst we are on the subject, where are City and UBS who issued their recommendation to the "independent" committee in support of the 640p offer? While at the same time the same banks were telling investors that target price for KAZ was 800p! Well, I guess they were right in the latter at least! Those banks should also be named and shamed. And they, too, should care about their reputation and review their opinion of this offer and withdraw it! They are facilitators and enablers in this sham, accomplices in this blatant attempt to steal the company from its shareholders. Hey, City and UBS, if you or your PR people are reading this, we are calling you out! Stop enabling the weak and incompetent "independent" committee to hide behind your advice and perpetrate thievery!
Let's all do something about it. Only a handful of people write on this board, but I know quite a few people follow it. If you agree with this comment, don't just like it, say "I SUPPORT" in reply. And let's all write to the committee and to the banks and demand withdrawal of their recommendation NOW! This company is easily worth £10, if not £12 a share. The independent committee MUST NOT support any offer below £10!
Not sure why folk are sitting around here as copper prices continue to reach record highs. I decided to bail out lat November as I realised this was not going anywhere whilst all the other copper companies were leaving this well behind.
I took a hit selling at 645 but picked up ANTO at 1200. Since then ANTO has risen 30% and I still feel there is more to come. No point in hanging around here I feel.
What's the significance of the Baimskaya asset?
This is clearly so undervalued that it won't matter too much either way, it's clearly due a re-rate to 800 - 1,000p, and this should happen rapidly upon the failure of this takeover is finally announced. i.e. it feels like a no-brainer at these prices. But I'm keen to understand this because ideally I'd like to buy and hold for the long term.
Err..., because they weren't that independent?