Member Info for AlfaMale

If the US hits Iran's power infrastructure in the coming days, I believe Iran will do as they say and retaliate against oil and water infrastructure across the Gulf. If it's a significant hit, it could potentially halt all oil production and export in the area which will most likely lead to a global recession as things will only get worse from there.

Trump is threatening their power grid as he likely realises military action or escorts to open the Strait of Hormuz has little chance of working as it would still mean the area is a war zone, so no commerial shipping will take place as insurance will be unavailable. GIven Trump wants the Strait open, he's using bully tactics to get Iran to capitulate, which has little chance of working. Question is, will Trump follow through with his threat knowing what Iran will do in return!

As well as the humanitarian consequences in the region of such a retaliatory attack, it's highly likely that stock markets will tank. Wouldn't want to be holding any equities if that happens, as the markets overall have barely reacted to the war so far - maybe down only 5-10%.

Any thoughts about what happens to the share price of the miners if global stock markets fall, but metal prices rise due to inflation/safety? Surely the miners will also be pulled down by the overall markets, but perhaps less so than other stocks if PM prices also rise at the same time.

But which force will dominate the miners during this time?!

If pulled back, I'd expect a stronger bounce in the miners once it all blows over, assuming the metal prices have also gone up during that time.

Strike123,

"The simple fact is we produce double the PAAS miner but there is not much difference in mcao between both! How can it be?"

What is the relative AISC for each miner?

What is the resource base of each miner?

I haven't looked, but it might explain some variance in m/caps. It's not only about quantity of ounces produced.

Stay focussed - long way to go yet for precious metals:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtLS8toJt-w

Good weekend, all.

Silver needs to close over $92 for a positive break out of the current sideways trend channel.

Shanghai exchange re-opens for business tonight? Pent-up silver demand?!

"history shows what exchanges do when confronted with disorderly moves in thin physical markets: they halt trading, raise margins, change rules midstream, and, in extremis, cash settle rather than force delivery."

Or have a mysterious "technical glitchs", on more than one occasion, which stops said safety mechanisms kicking in when market is moving in a disorderly manner, but happens to be in favour of large bank positions. All perfectly normal, and legal, I guess!

Make of it what you will... posted on the HOC board:

https://thesilverindustry.substack.com/p/the-unwinding-of-jp-morgans-62-billion?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=1m6y3j&triedRedirect=true

Several companies reporting this week:

Hecla Mining Company 17 Feb 2026

SSR Mining Inc 17 Feb 2026

Pan American Silver Corp. 18 Feb 2026

Coeur Mining, Inc. 18 Feb 2026

First Majestic Silver Corp. 19 Feb 2026

@antony901 Suggest you look at BullionVault. You can buy silver bullion almost at spot, and gold fairly close to spot. There is no VAT to pay on silver, and you can store it it various vaults around the world - perhaps Zurich would be a good choice.

Ducati,

"As far as more expensive silver being a serious problem to the manufacturers of solar panels the tiny amount actually used per panel would not have a massive effect on the unit production cost so hopefully they won't find an alternative any time soon."

Apparently, silver makes up approx 30% of the overall cost of a solar panel. So it's not exactly a tiny amount!

Producers of products will always seek to find ways to reduce costs when market prices surge, so a balance will have to be struck somewhere - the question is where will that be, given the structual deficits have been running for 5 years now.

What strikes me, is that even with 5 years of "deficits", the silver price remained in the $20-30 range, yet many keep saying that deficits will be the reason for the price rising in future.

Food for thought.

Exactly - watch for large drops to the downside again - they will take ful advantage of China being closed during this period.

During the fourth quarter of 2025, silver experienced significant price appreciation, ending the period with a

quarterly average price of $55.35 per ounce.

Hecla Mining, Pan American and Coeur reporting on 17/18th March. Should be indicative for FRES.

What the US (Biden) says publicly, and what they say behind closed doors will be another matter!

Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year, ends today...

It's all very concerning. I too have moved out of IAG and into oil stocks, which should remain bouyant, or better, during any Middle East conflict if oil price spikes.

Those of you planning to liquidate prior to Budget day (30th Oct) and buy back after 30 days, do remember that in the last 30 days, this share has risen almost 20%! If Q3 results on 8th Nov are expected to be positive, then we could see similar gains in the SP from now until then. It's definitely not the 30 days that I would like to be out waiting to buy back in. Glad I'm holding mine in an ISA.

I would expect any CGT change to only become effective for the next tax year onwards, otherwise they'd be creating mayhem for accountants and everyone else! I don't think they can backdate it, although I wouldn't put anything past this lot. So yes, it would be best to cash in any gains before the CGT change becomes effective, but unlikely to be needed prior to the budget. Maybe speak with a tax adviser to confirm.

Non Exec picking up £83K's worth.

Looks like another strong day...