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Goldman Sachs say $12K copper end of this year and $15k next year!
https://www.forexlive.com/news/why-goldman-sachs-boosted-its-copper-forecast-to-12000-from-10000ton-20240506/
Copper gone back above $10000 on that news.
METALS ā Copper back up above $10,000/T on Fed rate cut hopes
05:55
May 7 (Reuters) ā Copper prices in London rose above a key resistance level of $10,000 a metric ton on Tuesday, buoyed by renewed hopes for U.S. interest rate cuts this year.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose 1.5% to $10,061.50 a ton by 0415 GMT, while the most-traded June copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) was nearly flat at 80,920 yuan ($11,213.35) a ton, hovering near the record high of 82,460 yuan. ...... A softer-than-expected U.S. labor market report on Friday led traders to revive bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve would ease monetary policy as early as September.
Lower interest rates could lift metals demand by boosting economic growth. They could also lead to a softer dollar, making greenback-priced metals cheaper to holders of other currencies. ...... Last month, top consumer China announced subsidies for scrapping old cars in exchange for new ones to boost car sales, especially for electric vehicles, which consume nickel in their batteries. And of course COPPER....
Full ask being paid for some chunky trades..... looks good.
We are producing 300 metric tonnes of copper per month. Taking a pessimistic all in production cost of $6000 per tonne that equates to an earnings of $4000 per tonne or $1.2 M per month which is more than we are earning from PGMs I suspect (though the basket price is creeping up, so that comparison may be wrong). In any event, it is certainly not trivial.
Heroric,
Your over exaggeration means the point you rely on is missed. JLP are producing copper (the 300mt per month) but this IS less than we had hoped for with the full Roan upgrade.
I cant believe you doubled down on the no copper missive when corrected - either qualify your post or I will report as it clearly mistates the position here.
Good morning everyone.
Heroric it is incorrect to say they aren't producing any copper.
At some points they wont be at other points they will be but overall they are at a consistent volume of around 300 tons per month no it isn't high production yet and it may be a couple of months before they hit those higher targets but that is what we are all waiting for.
Jonah,
$4K gross margin per ton may be a little high at the moment.
The first 6 months revenue was $6.7k per ton and costs were $4.5k per ton so gross margin was only $2.2k per ton back then. Copper average price was around $8.4k per ton at the time.
Yes copper price has increased but costs are expected to increase. JLPs revenue per ton reported is $1.7k per ton less than the price of copper at the time if that continues to be the same then a gross margin of $3K maybe nearer the mark.
As Roan builds up speed we will get a better idea of revenue and costs and copper price increasing can only help all looks good though.
The point I am making is that JLPs delays mean it is missing out on record prices. Sorry but the small amounts sporadically produced to date dont float my boat. I have just wateched the cocoa price spike burst and copper looks bubble like too. JLP need to be up and running to benefit, this is my frustration. Current price peaks mean very little until they do.
Iām just hoping this is the precursor to a much stronger rerate on Roan news and 2025 targets!
For the record, I added early last week, but copper peak needs to come when we are producing (properly) not before in order to see and enjoy sustained gains from JLP making real hard cash.
I agree Heroric the benefit of higher price of copper producing 1k tonnes per month is far better than 300 tonnes per month for JLP to take advantage of but that isn't how your original post came across stating producing no copper and that triggered some of the more robust responses to you.
Anyway just for Ardbeggar
Cmon Roan.
I don't think copper price is anywhere near "bubble like" Heroric. We are nowhere near the top and that might well not come until 2025 so plenty of time to take advantage of the rise.
heroric
i don't know what your stressing about, although our copper production is very low, we are producing. so saying we're not producing is going to get you some flak as your statement is not true. we also are at the tipping point of producing and copper if you believe goldman and others is going to go from strength to strength. it is apparently over 10k now and going higher so we or rather jlp through loads of **** ups have timed it perfectly. if in the next f/y we produce 10k of oxide copper on our own and 6k of copper with irh on top of chrome and pgm's together with sulphide copper.
you are talking about a gross profit well over $100m. then the following year you could double that. if you look at that scenario then jlp would be worth over 30p per share if it was sold. is this the reason why they have got a new broker ?
or is it because of chambisi? why would they need a new broker for chambisi? or is it a full float which should or would be very sensible.
I agree with your numbers for next year Edzi. I have pgms and chrome on their own coming in at between $65 mill and $78 mill gross. Add in 12k of copper only at $3k gross margin and you have $100 mill gross profit minimum.
JLP have put everything in place just need to deliver on copper the other two are pretty much established and chrome still growing.
Gray1
Hi, I'm trying my best to be quite conservative with my numbers to tell you the truth.
Of course everything stands on the price of metals but if you believe what is being written, not only on Copper but on PGM's then the figures could be better. I am also trusting that the Chrome price will be roughly where it is now, however next year JLP should be producing much more chrome that will produce a better bottom line. It is interesting to hear that the Copper Oxide get's a premium price and I have no idea how much sulphide can be produced. I am also keen to hear what is going on with JLP and Gronovska, as that will not only create a new revenue stream but it will show the market that we can produce in an area that others struggle with. Keep the posts going it's always interesting to have a good conversation Regards
Edzi,
Yes gone a bit quiet with Droslovka but Roan and the modules with IRH are taking preference it would seem. However it would be good to get improvements in the tailings processing.
Agree being conservative. I am always conservative and I would be disappointed if we don't hit $100 mill gross next year as a minimum.
The margin on chrome could be pivotal as well. I have it down as $30-$35/ton gross margin others have suggested it could be higher. I will be looking at the second half of this year chrome margin to see what it comes in at.
Hi Gray1
I would welcome your thoughts on the following:
Jlp have now appointed Berenden which is a great move but you do wonder with everything going on why!
If they wanted to buy Chambisi, would they need them, to me the answer is no as the money coming in on chrome
and copper for the next 2 years if you accept the Goldman theory about Copper prices, they to me are not needed.
Are they going for a full listing, or are they trying to get a good price for a take over. What are your thoughts Regards
Edzi,
You are moving at a tangent with some of these. My speculative opinion to answer your questions for what they are worth:)
Had a conversation with Mikie the other day I don't think they need Chambisi with the chinese being short on concentrate at the moment and the price they can get for it.
Energy costs would have to be a big consideration even if they got it cheap. I would imagine it may need money spending on it to bring it into operation. You never know with Leon though:)
I think they would need to get the valuation of the company higher than what it is now if they were going for a full listing but that shouldn't be a problem if copper does the business not hard to see sp double from here with what is expected to be produced next financial year.
As for a takeover who knows. If someone was though they would be better off getting in now whilst it is cheap. I think Leon wants to grow it into a billion dollar company which would be around your 30p a share predators maybe lurking then. Copper will be attractive to them.
That would be a shame. 1 billion is just the start.
It would be a shame Shuvlin we would all like to see full value we have waited long enough. The bigger fish will circle though if JLP becomes more attractive. Edzi does make an interesting couple of points. I am not saying it will happen you just never know even chrome is looking tasty.
A bit of speculation whilst it is quiet and we wait for Roan.
hi gray
i am not trying to fire off wild theories or start rapid posts regarding my initial views about berenberg, but other than wanting to try and get a wider market for the shares, why go there?
there is a reason for doing this because of the timing of everything ? i have said many times i worked in the arena of pr and marketing at a very high level and i think that this has been driven by ollie or even neal for a very good reason.
my thoughts are that because irh have been buying up very big assets in zambia, they need a quality management and research team to sweat the assets and if jlp can not only process rocks but also the more difficult **** heaps then they alone would be making about 150-200 million$ per year in the next 3 years, putting a bid in makes sense even if they claim back the 42% that jlp are going to make on the initial deal. there is also going to be consolidation in the mining sector and although jlp are a minnow, they are a very important one especially because of the green issues, if they can take them into other countries especially in the congo or even zimbabwe they would get a brilliant return on their investment in 5 or so years. it makes so much sense, even to take a 20% stake in jlp as that will make sure others don;t bid just my thoughts but i could be way off
Good morning everyone,
Hi Edzi,
What you have written all sounds very plausible to me so the berenberg angle you highlight could have legs.
You are spot on with the green credentials and cannot be underestimated. The big boys will take note of this.
JLP's operations are pretty much a "clean up as you go" which is extremely attractive not only to bigger companies but the governments and locals that have been affected. Get the Zambia operation running like the chrome operation and that will give JLP the financial ability to look at Congo and IRH may want to be involved in that.
Didn't know about Zimbabwe and any potential there so that is a new one for me.
And just for Ardbeggar
Cmon Roan:)