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Will this ever bloody recover.... It has totally screed me over.
Survivor I feel for you but I think fresh lows are round the corner with this one. I could be wrong but I can't see any positive news or results coming in the next 6 months to drive this higher.
I googled the one year forecast on ldw and the median estimate is £7.60 odd, I'm down a bit but definitely a hold for me
Clark is there a reason why? They have been trading profitably since the spring
Big punt are you mad where on earth are you getting your information from Jdw are trading in debt up to there eye balls and with interest rates rising the debt is mounting won’t be long till £4 a share even £3 a share
Q3 trading update:
"Since 13 March, the company has returned to profitability and to a positive cash flow, and is cautiously optimistic about the prospect of a return to relative normality in FY23"
Last “sell” rating was four years ago and shorts are low too, the downturn is due to macroeconomics not JDW business plan.
The concern here is macro economics and debt. JDW generated 5-6% margins pre covid and pre inflationary rise. JDW are now probably in the realms of needing £2.5bn sales just to break even.
With a gearing ratio close to 400% and finance costs of £70m per annum the pressure starts to mount.
Debt covenants are the devil's advocate and the special agreement with the lenders expires in October having already been extended several times. From RNS:
The company has an agreement with its lenders,
who have been extremely supportive throughout the
pandemic, that waives its debt covenants until
October 2022 and replaces them with a minimum
liquidity requirement of £75m. At the half-year-end
liquidity was £159.1m.
On top of that is the tax payers £100m that has to be paid back in 12 months.
JDW are now at a point where the next set of results have to be profitable otherwise it will be another raise and I'm not sure what the appetite will be following the last one and the current financial position of JDW and the macro economics we will have to endure for who knows how long.
Hats off for sticking it out here and I hope I'm wrong and the economy comes bouncing back and all ends well.
This share will be in the mid sixties next couple of week, sentiment is improving and my guess continue to climb steadily.
The doom-monger's are missing a trick.
drb83 i dont disagree with any of your figures but!!! i think you are missing an important calculation and that is pricing power against competition.
jdw could increase margins 10/15 % and still undercut most competitors i would not normally invest in a company with this level of leverage but i have made a small investment this last week on instinct more than figures . time will tell investing is not always black & white.
Steve, correct they could but a price increase would have to be 2 fold. First to pass on the increase in energy and food costs and then second to increase margins. With macro economics as they are it's not a great time to be forced into putting prices up.
Mortgage payments going up
Energy bills unfathomable
Fuel costs rediculous.
Food prices sky high
It certainly will be interesting to see the next results.
drb83 again we agree but! i am a real ale drinker so very limited on the choice of establishments that i would even consider going into, i generally drink in a local privately owned establishment that has good quality beer and good pub food however since the reopening of the economy the prices in this pub have increased considerably and i have noticed a large drop in customers and how often they are frequenting the place.
people will not stop drinking but they will find cheaper ways of doing it which will result in a loss of yet more of our pubs sadly.
this will lead to a increase in sales for the survivors which i believe jdw will most certainly one.
ps it is only 1 mile from my normal drinking hole to the local jdw and although i have not been a frequent attendee i and my fellow drinking partners are already talking taking some of our custom there.
Steve 305 you are a joke people will not stop drinking people will not stop going out just because you have no life does not stop people enjoying their life’s you loser
sax read my post again and this time plug in your brain cell before replying.
@Thesurvivor asked - "Will this ever bloody recover.... It has totally screed me over."
Answer = yes; but I can't see it moving much with the MMs pinning the SP down.
Look at todays Auto-Ex trades of 1, 2 or 3 shares knocked down @ below BID...
They're picking up cheap shares, check Auto-Ex-trades after 16.00hrs, waiting/building for
their kill & profit...hopefully they'll get bored soon and we'll see the SP back above £10,
should/when they take their foot of the throat of JDW's SP.
" JDW are now at a point where the next set of results have to be profitable otherwise it will be another raise "
You can argue that they are profitable...the main reason for reporting a loss is because of the decision to invest firmly in property maintenance ....profit or loss is often determined by the level of investment or lack of it
Much of their costs are geared around contracts ...and don't fluctuate too much in relation to spot prices in food, energy or interest rates ..the issue will only really be a concern when those contracts are re-negotiated in 2023 ..contracts will keep cost rises below spot inflation rates ...elevated wages being the biggest cost headache at present
What is urgently needed is a functional Government with a leader that shows direction towards easing the current macro problems..... should the new Tory leader show positive moves then the market will respond
At the minute, with a Government AWOL and problems piling up the market is clearly nervous and showing its concern
If you think either of the headless chickens running for the Tory leadership are capable of sorting this mess out, then you really are deluded! LOL
Grayling
The job is a huge one and it depends on whether they want to be populist or whether they want to do what is needed .....a thankless task to be fair.... at present they are merely playing for votes,.... I would suggest the Tory members are more like "headless chickens" than the candidates themselves...with many undecided and flipping from one candidate to the other
Poker, all fair points well made. The contracts will certainly prove their worth over the next 12 months. The business is approaching it's strongest period of the year and it must be profitable to restore confidence in the market.
Profit is one thing but as the saying goes, 'cash is king'. Can they drum up enough cash to repay the £100m covid loan in Jul23 or will they be forced to beg for an extension, if possible. Will they have enough cash left to satisfy the loan covenants or will they need to extend again? The current macro economics must be playing on the minds of the lenders. It feels high risk to me at the moment. The next set of accounts will give us more of an insight into the strength of the balance sheet. 7 weeks to wait.
I believe the main issue here is the cost of energy. JDWs energy is still fixed at pre Ukraine prices and is fixed till next year. The only way they can generate more income is to increase prices and close the gap between them and other operators. Whether enough of the punters will swallow the increase is the big question. I believe JDW will be forced to, the city will like it definitely in the short term and the shares will rally. At the moment the management are not doing anything regarding pricing. Smart move with the revamps though as it will only cost more next year. Unfortunately I think the hospitality sector is in for a really bad winter. After the summer we have had it should be flying, sods law says we are in for a bad winter weather wise and this will not help
Poker, rather than chickens, I see tory party members as swivel-eyed loonies and such pensioners as have not expired since voting for BrexitMcBrexitface.
Clark et al, my local Spoons prices have risen 10% in the last 2-3m. In 2 stages, steady as she goes, need to monitor effect on turnover.
Miln, what's the latest with the voting can they change their minds at the last minute now or not?
It's amazing how "democracy" in this country works
Tell you one thing though going on old Liz's comments a few years ago I wouldn't wanna ring in sick of I was working for her.... The papers will come up with something next week. Someone I think did mention just before old Boris Pinocchio went that she was always away from work?
Not sure Clark. I'm vaguely aware of some bizzare rule where they could overrule their earlier postal vote by voting online, or vice versa; unsure if current.
I guess if they've thought it through, instead of their own favourite, they should elect someone the rest of us would vote for.