MD It is pretty clear that you do not like AZN, but the problems you refer to and which resulted in fines in both the UK and USA predate the tenure of Pascal Soriot by over a decade with the mis-selling of drugs in the mid 1990's and before and were settled before he took over in 2012. Soriot restructured the company in 2013 and from then on has won the battle to re-establish AZN as a global force in oncology. I know many of the scientists involved in their lung cancer programme personally and they are amongst the best in the world. Forget vaccines it is a mere sideshow compared with the real business at AZN
The vaccine stuff is just PR fluff and will not impact the bottom line one way or the other. AZN is focused elsewhere under Soriot and the smart money knows that and is not distracted. Sure a few idiots might have bought in on the back of the Covid19 froth and the price may retreat a little as a result, but long term this is rock solid and one of the best core holdings you can have in your portfolio. It has been held back for years over pipeline fears and the patent cliff. Soriot has addressed all of that over the past decade and re-positioned AZN as a global leader in oncology. GSK offloaded their oncology portfolio a while back, but are now busy playing catch-up trying to get back into the game. GSK meanwhile have gone big in vaccines, nothing to do with Covid19 though, their shingles vaccine is the blockbuster for them. I hold both AZN and GSK long term.
Vaccines have little or nothing to do with the recent strength of AZN it is simply because it has good growth potential thanks to the success of its oncology portfolio and it’s dividend is rock solid. AZN has been undervalued on pipeline fears for years now but Soriot has proven the doubters wrong big style. Makes the Pfizer takeover bid at £55 a share seem even more of a joke now than it did back in 2014
"Hi Grayling, what makes you think you will lose your money , you think RR will go bust?" Not exactly what I said at all. I stated that I had made an investment in RR in the knowledge that I may lose all of my money and no I do not think that RR will go bust. The government would bail it out if that were a likely scenario, just as they did before in 1971. However if RR were to accept a government loan to stay afloat, then the dividend (and all staff bonus payments in cash or shares) would be suspended until that loan was repaid. I suspect though that RR will raise their corporate debt privately as far as they dare to avoid the latter.
No I averaged down Friday, buying at £2.48 and for the long-term but I did so in the knowledge that I may lose my money. However, I would take issue with the "seen all this before" comment. Unless you are as old as Methusalah you have definitely never seen a share wipe-out caused by a global pandemic before. Yes RR busted itself over the RB211 and was nationalised in 1971 and it rode out the banking crash after 2008, but the present situation is unprecedented and nobody can predict what the future of civil aviation will be once we get through all of this. Ask yourself this, how soon would you be prepared to wait in line with 300 or so strangers and board a plane with them unless you knew they had all been tested for or vaccinated against Covid19? How likely is the latter situation (universal testing or vaccination) in the near term? A vaccine may come to the rescue, but not likely this year. Can the airlines survive this prolonged shutdown and what are the financial consequences of trying to return a fleet of airliners, which has been grounded for months, to active service with the likely deterioration of on board systems?
Both Sandbar and Alliance Bernstein further increased their short positions in RR as declared 13/05/20. At 1.26% now the highest they have been since disclosure was introduced back in 2012 and these new entrants mark the first shorting activity in RR shares since April 2017.
Whatever. Still all the money is piling into healthcare stocks (no divi cuts there) and defensives like Unilever, Diageo and RB (no divi cuts there either). Out are Banks, Oilers and Insurance Co's with exposure to business and travel liabilities (lots of divi cuts there), housebuilders (moribund) and travel (Air, sea and rail). Time to reposition the portfolio perhaps?
Could not agree more. Have held both AZN and GSK for years and will continue to do so. They are both in the forever fund along with PHNX, another non-flashy but very solid business. Traders will come and go, but these are all for the long-term.
"The Falklands oil will be important once We have left the EU." Why would that be? I was not aware that being in or out of the EU made a jot of difference as to where we get our oil and how much we pay for it! Truth is nobody is going to want any oil for quite some considerable time now and as storage capacity tops out, production will be have to be slashed globally. No point in producing the stuff when you cannot sell it and there is nowhere left to store it either.
GE said it is consulting with the 1,400 people at its Nantgarw site, near Caerphilly, as the firm suffers from the drop of numbers in air travel. "The business is consulting with all employees at the Wales site, including those currently furloughed, regarding voluntary severance." GE Aviation makes jet engines for Boeing and Airbus. The company's plans are the latest sign that the air travel industry is preparing for a prolonged travel slowdown due to the coronavirus pandemic.
I think "it may be rocky for a year or 2" may be wildly optimistic as it all depends on how long air travel is disrupted. Another factor is that the RR market segment lies in engines for wide-bodied long-haul aircraft whereas their rivals have a significant presence in narrow bodied short-haul fleets. As domestic air travel is likely to return much faster than international travel, this may cause an even greater lag for RR. While East has done the right thing in a potentially existential crisis and the redundancies in particular are incredibly unwelcome, he is not a magician and I would not rule out either a cash call or a request for government support if this drags on until the end of the year with no uptick in activity.